There’s (Somehow) Life In This Breakers Season Yet, Friends
Just when it looks like it’s all over they go and drag us back in. Of all the bonkers things that have gone on during one of the most insane single seasons ever witnessed from a professional kiwi sports club, a sudden 180 flip in form isn’t the most unexpected of those things but it’s up there. The Breakers were teetering at 4-10 a few weeks back, without an away win all season and with four straight away games on the cards after a home clash against South East Melbourne (which they’d win to jump to 5-10). Around that time they allowed Corey Webster to leave for China until next season and re-upped on Dan Shamir’s coaching contract – a very sudden shift in focus from the win-at-all-costs trends of the first half of the season to seeking to secure the future instead. The 2019-20 season itself looked pretty much done-skees.
Until it didn’t. How the hell did this happen? Who knows but it’s hard not to think that the simplifications of recent times have done wonders. The pressure was released when Webster was released because at that point there was nothing left to lose. Incredibly they haven’t lost since. There’s also no longer any worries whatsoever about how the shots will be distributed. Instead of having to shuffle between Webster, Scotty Hopson, Glen Rice Jr, or whoever when we get to crunch time... it’s now very clearly Scotty Hopson’s team. A healthy and fired up Scotty Hopson too, given the green light to take over. Which presumably makes Dan Shamir’s job a lot easier too.
Over these five wins, this is what Scotty Hopson has done...
SEM: 34 MIN | 24 PTS (10/19 FG) | 9 REB | 3 AST
ILL: 27 MIN | 21 PTS (8/11 FG) | 7 REB | 5 AST
BRI: 35 MIN | 27 PTS (8/17 FG) | 6 REB | 4 AST
ADL: 35 MIN | 28 PTS (11/19 FG) | 7 REB | 4 AST
SEM: 37 MIN | 19 PTS (9/15 FG) | 3 REB | 8 AST
Big minutes. Big influence. Big scoring. Big man on campus. Going by raw plus/minus (as sourced from the outstanding Spatial Jam), Hopson is a +54. Remember he was out injured for a chunk of the Breakers’ worst stuff because the second best number on the team is Rob Loe, also out injured for a large stretch, with a +8. Ater Majok is the only other Breaker in the positives. That’s amazing.
And amidst everything else, the first two of these away wins which really got the Breakers sizzling with confidence for basically the first time all season came directly through Scotty Hopson game-winners. The numbers are beautiful but they don’t tell the full story. So often individual moments can decide a game of basketball after everything else has been cancelled out through 40 minutes (or 48 in the NBA, mate) and it’s all about who can make that one crucial shot. Scotty Hopson makes that shot, don’t even worry about it.
Of course, there have been solid offensive contributions all season and this little surge wouldn’t have been possible without a boost in defence. Nothing massive but enough to give dudes like Hopson a chance to do what he does. Five straight games, conceding 84 points, 89 points, 96 points, 87 points, and 92 points. The last four of those were on the road and just to remind you they’d been averaging a shade under 103 points per game in away games prior to this run. They were 0-6 on the road with a -82 points differential. Their last four away games they’ve gone 4-0 with a points differential of +19 and an average of 91ppg.
Unsurprisingly, considering everything we’ve already chatted about, Scotty Hopson has far and away the best defensive rating on the team (19.2 points better than the team average) so he’s probably been the major factor in all of this on both sides of the ball. Seriously, we knew from his resume that this fella was capable of playing at an All-NBL level. The Breakers didn’t really do him justice in making that crystal clear when he signed, his addition to the roster kinda crowded out by the Dan Shamir ‘Director of Basketball’ and RJ Hampton yarns. But we’re seeing right now exactly how good Scotty Hopson can be and it’s delightful.
But I also wanna throw some love the way of a few kiwi ballers who have also really helped the lads turn the corner these last couple weeks. Finn Delany missed the start of the season with injury and it was definitely a frustrating time for him waiting to get back out there. When he did, there was some initial rustiness. To be expected. Then he dropped 20 points on the Hawks and from that point onwards the Breakers are 7-2. Delany has scored at least 9 points in each of the last seven games and when he’s been slowed down it tends to be because of foul trouble. When he plays at least 25 minutes he’s averaging 14.9 points (on 45.5% FG) with 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists. And, sneakily, having started his campaign shooting 11/38 from deep, in his last three games (all wins of course) he’s made 8/14 three pointers.
Also, Jordan Ngatai has played 38 mins across the last three games (shooting 3/6 from deep) having played basically 100 minutes in the previous 16 games (including 2 DNPs and shooting 1/13 from deep). Ethan Rusbatch got more than 12 minutes against South East Melbourne last time too, the most he’s played in a game all season. Corey Webster’s absence spreading the wealth amongst a couple kiwi shooters trying to earn new contracts for next season.
Plus we can’t forget Tom Abercrombie. A fella who has been in a weird situation this season, the team captain and an icon of the golden era who has been passed around like rolled gold to justify the direction/priorities of the current era. Who was strangely dragged back in a headlock by Glen Rice Jr when RJ Hampton got ejected that time, who had a game in Cairns, the low point of the Breakers season when Rice came back in and completely bogarted that basketball as Abercrombie, in foul trouble, took just one shot and was held scoreless in an ugly defeat. Then Ricebags got the boot and TA has been back in business ever since. Comparing TA’s reputation as an all round nice bloke and GRJ’s reputation as the exact opposite, it warms the cockles of the ol’ heart, it surely does.
Tom Abercrombie before GRJ was cut:
12 GM (3W & 9L) | 8.3 PTS | 5.7 FGA | 45.6 FG%
Tom Abercrombie since GRJ was cut:
7 GM (6W & 1L) | 15.6 PTS | 9.0 FGA | 55.6 FG%
Which begs the question now and I know you’re thinking it same as I am... can the Breakers make the semis? I mean...
Two games back in the win column with nine games remaining, five of them at home and four away. Currently nursing a five game win streak. If they’re gonna do it then they’ll need to win a minimum of six of their final nine games and more realistically it might need to be seven or even eight. They pretty much have to keep doing what they’ve been doing lately for the whole rest of the term so don’t get your hopes up too much... though they should have been out of the reckoning already but for these recent heroics. It’s all bonus basketball from this point onwards.
Here’s the remaining schedule...
at Cairns Taipans (11-9) Thurs 9 Jan
vs Brisbane Bullets (9-11) Sun 12 Jan
vs Sydney Kings (14-6) Fri 17 Jan
vs Melbourne United (11-9) Sun 19 Jan
at Perth Wildcats (13-8) Sat 25 Jan
vs Adelaide 37ers (10-11) Fri 31 Jan
at Illawarra Hawks (5-15) Sun 2 Feb
at Brisbane Bullets (9-11) Fri 7 Feb
vs South East Melbourne Phoenix (8-11) Fri 14 Feb
It looks alright after that Perth trip but what precedes it... not so much. The last five games have given the Breakers the opportunity to pull off a miracle and the next five games will most likely determine whether they can get it done or not. But even if they don’t the last few weeks have restored a fair bit of faith in the on-court potential of this Breakers team. Dan Shamir has been able to impart a few more of his ideas, earning some of that credit which he seemed to have already been given before he arrived. And Tom Abercrombie’s form is arguably even more crucial to the club since he and Corey Webster are the only players under contract beyond this season (well, RJ Hampton too but only so the club gets compensation when he declares for the draft). It’s been a ridiculous season... but it’s not over just yet.
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