The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 16
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 149-74-1
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)
Friday 10.30am NZT
How appropriate that the Minnesota Vikings would be playing on Christmas Day. Not because Kirk Cousins is like Santa’s little helper with all the gifts he offers up (to his own receivers and to opposition defenders) but for a simpler, more innocent reason...
Hehehe. Kyle Rudolph is currently injured though, missed last game and is doubtful for this one. Which frankly is enough of an omen to confirm that the Vikings are going to ruin Xmas for their fans. Can’t drive the sleigh if Rudolph doesn’t show up, right? Also losing to the Bears last week probably kills off any playoff hopes they might have been clinging on to - they have to win out and they need the Cardinals to lose their final two remaining games (Niners & Rams). That’s not gonna happen. The Saints just gave the Chiefs a tough one. Drew Brees looked shockingly rusty to begin with but slowly got it going with three touchdown passes. They’ll skittle these jokers.
Dalvin Cook last week: 132 yards at 5.5 per carry with 1 touchdown
Derrick Henry last week: 147 yards at 6.1 per carry with 1 touchdown
There’s no letting up, is there? Cook has an excellent game and Henry still extends his lead at the top of the rush charts, which is now at 195 yards. Cook played one fewer game and has 24 fewer carries. He’s still got a chance, but it’s a slim one...
Dalvin Cook: 1484 rush yards at 5.0 per carry with 15 touchdowns
Derrick Henry: 1679 rush yards at 5.2 per carry with 15 touchdowns
Remaining games...
Cook: Saints (3.8 Y/A allowed - #3) & Lions (4.5 Y/A - #19)
Henry: Packers (4.5 Y/A - #21) & Texans (5.0 Y/A - #30)
Yeah... as long as Derrick Henry plays the last two games (there’s a possibility the Titans will clinch their division this week and rest him the next one) then he’s more likely to get to 2000 yards than he is to be caught. Dude’s still gotta face the pathetic Texans rush defence which makes the average running back look like Dalvin Cook.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9)
Sunday 7.00am NZT
You most certainly do not hate to see it.
The Buccs are almost booked into the playoffs themselves but damn it’s hard to predict how they’re going to go. Even just last week they looked like two different teams. First half they were shutout, trailing 17-0 and while Matt Ryan already had 236 yards, Tom Brady had been sacked twice and the run game was still in single figures for yardage. Incredibly, for what’s ostensibly a good team, that was the fourth time they’ve gone down by 17+ in the first half (the Jets are the only other team to have done that as often). No team with a winning record has a worse first half points differential.
But same as they did against the Chargers in week five they came surging back in that second half. 31 points and a lovely comeback win, with Brady doing what he’s done in many games this year and taking a quarter or two to really warm up and get going – though it’s the struggles they have establishing the run game early on that is the troublesome one for me – Ronald Jones II averages 3.8 yards per attempt in first halves, 6.5 yards per attempt in second halves. You can’t be hitting up playoff games expecting to be able to comeback from half-time deficits. Those ones get away from you fast.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 6
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
Sunday 10.30am NZT
Even with dudes like Richard Sherman back healthy, the 49ers still have 34% of their total salary cap sitting on the injured reserve. Imagine trying to build an NFL roster with only two-thirds of the money of everybody else. That’s what the Niners have been dealing with. Puts things into some perspective as to how they managed to lose to the Dallas Cowboys last week hahahahaha.
The Cardinals win this and they can clinch a wildcard with a week to spare if the Bears lose to the Jaguars. That probably won’t happen (although if it does then there’ll be a party on the streets of New York) but the Cardinals have bounced back well the last couple weeks with wins over NFC East battlers the Giants and Eagles. That Eagles win was no sitter either, Jalen Hurts gave them a real scare. In response though it might have been Kyler Murray’s best performance of the season as he threw 406 yards with three touchdowns (and one pick) at 75% completion to go with another rushing score. It’s been a rocky year at times for Murray, whose standards have fluctuated, but while he’s far from out the other side of those struggles he’s probably gonna top 4000 passing yards and he already has 40 combined passing and rushing touchdowns which is kinda crazy. That’s two more than Patrick Mahomes, how about them apples?
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 8
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
Monday 2.15pm NZT
I’d make fun of this dude for wearing his Oakland Raiders cap instead of a Las Vegas one but to be honest I type Oakland Raiders every single week that I write this bad boy so he without sin and all that. It does make me laugh imaging the marketing team seeing that on social media and frantically trying to contact the right people so they could swap him an up to date hat mid-game. Which is what happened... before long he was in a Las Vegas one, lol.
The Dolphins defence has a takeaway in 20 consecutive games. Xavier Howard is one pick away from double figures. Last year the top individual mark was six while you have to go all the way back to Antonio Cromartie in 2007 for the last bloke to get 10 interceptions in a season. And if he can get to 11, well... then you have to go all the way back to Everson Walls in 1981.
Right so here’s what the Raiders have been up to the last five weeks...
Wk11 – Lost 35-31 to the Kansas City Chiefs, fair enough
Wk12 – Got absolutely blown out 43-6 by the Atlanta Falcons
Wk13 – Hilarious win over an 0-11 New York Jets team, 31-28, thanks to a Hail Mary
Wk14 – Beaten soundly by a good Indianapolis Colts side 44-27
Wk15 – Went down 30-27 in overtime against the LA Chargers
That’s 180 points conceded in five games, allowing a total of 1998 yards on defence. Which averages out to 36 points per game and 399.6 yards. That’s a five game stretch which is starting to get pretty representative, it’s not that small of a sample, and they’re coughing up more than a hundred yards more than the league-worst Seattle Seahawks defence averages per game (over the course of the season – 293 yards). That’s one way to absolutely destroy a promising season in the space of a month.
On the plus side: Darren Waller.
Absolutely incredible season that dude is having. He has 425 receiving yards with 3 TDs in his last three games, a new record over a three game span for a tight end. He’s not quite on that George Kittle level as a blocker but he’s just as good as him, in his own way, as a receiver.
Now, it’d clearly be a shame if Derek Carr isn’t healthy to play here. He’s been having an excellent season and he’s pretty crucial to this team. Right now he’s in limited training so there’s a chance he’ll play, he says he’s “going to do everything I can to be on the field” so that’s nice. But I mean... the prospect of Tua Tagovailoa versus Marcus Mariota is just too good not to cheer for. Shout out to the State of Hawaii. Mariota looked sharp against the Chargers too given he came in mid-game not really expecting to play.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 3
Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6
Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13)
Monday 7.00am NZT
That’s what happens when the New York Jets win a game. They lose 13 in a row then they snap that streak with a brilliant upset victory against a possible playoff team and they get absolutely slaughtered by their fans and local media for it. Even when they win they still lose, that’s the New York Jets for ya.
The Jets aren’t quite as terrible as they appear though. They have some very competent defensive players, they should by all rights have beaten the Raiders a few weeks back, and then there was this stat about how often they’ve scored on their first possessions of games.
Problem now is that Jacksonville have the nudge by their strength of schedule so if the two teams both finish at 1-15 then the Jags will get the first overall pick and the option to select Trevor Lawrence. It’s tricky, none of those players are going out there trying to lose. They have fragile careers to protect, they have their own health to protect and half-arsing every play is only gonna get you hurt. After 358 days without a win the franchise has every right to celebrate a wonderful upset win. But at the same time there’s only one Trevor Lawrence and nobody really believes the Jets can scout a proper quarterback without them being the consensus top pick. Then again, what’s if they got Lawrence and he broke his leg in preseason? Then what? What’s if they get him and stick him behind a wonky offensive line with a defence that keeps him playing from behind every week and he’s terrible? What’s if he sucks all on his own for no predictable reason?
There are no sure bets in the draft. It could be a better way of doing things to follow the Washington FT model and draft their own Chase Young second overall, build the structures in the team around a veteran placeholder quarterback (some 2021 free agents: Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton... hell they could even get Gardner Minshew)... then bring in either a bigger free agent in a couple years or develop a prospect underneath all that. Of course they’ll have to sack Adam Gase as soon as this season ends... all of this requires of getting out of the way of their own terrible decision makers. Not gonna bet on it. But also wouldn’t have bet on Trevor Lawrence making all the difference. That Jets win was a win for Trevor Lawrence, methinks.
And shout out to Frank Gore, who deserves so much more than going out winless (if indeed he does retire: ““I’m happy. I had good years, I had bad years, I had tough years, like this has been a tough one. One thing I can say: I never went 0-16. We finally got one. I’m happy. … Even though I know the year ain’t go how I planned ... we’ve been fighting as a team.”
Baker Mayfield’s last four games:
70.2% COMP | 308 YDS/G | 10 TD | 1 INT | 117.7 RATE | 9.84 AY/A | 1 RUSH TD
Wildcard’s Pick: Back to normal transmission with a Browns 14 point win
Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Hmm, okay. Eleven wins in a row no dramas but then all their luck turned on them at once with defeats against Washington, Buffalo, and worst of all Cincinnati. They were winning without playing to their peak for quite a while and now they’ve been figured out all at once. And the last two games they play, Colts and Browns, are against far better teams than the ones that have beaten them (excluding the Bills). Ben Roethlisberger had 19 total passing yards in the first half of that Bengals game. He picked it up afterwards but not enough to do what Tom Brady did and lead a huge comeback. This Steelers side looks rattled at the moment. Injuries to their linebackers have left them vulnerable on defence and when the dink and dunk stuff they’ve been living off lately on offence isn’t working then... we just saw what happens.
Cam Heyward: “I'm not disappointed, I'm just pissed off. We just lost the damn game. I think that's the way our team feels. We're not feeling sorry for ourselves, but we've got to get the job done. We're two weeks out. We've just got to play our brand of football. Attack the line of scrimmage, offense and defense. We need to make plays early and not be in a catch-up game. As a defense, if you get in the red zone, it's got to be three points or nothing. It can't be touchdowns. They go up early, and to start 17-0, you're asking for a lot from our offense. Our offense just has to start fast.”
Them’s fighting words. But Ben Roethlisberger, who confirmed this week he intends to play on next season, missed some bad throws in that first half which helped dig them into that mess. There’s not a lot you can achieve when you’re going literally nowhere on offence. Not a lot of time to figure that out now and they’ve only good strong defences to follow. Three weeks ago they were in position for a top seed. Now other teams are thinking of how to position themselves to face the Steelers in the first round.
By the way, there’s a very obvious reason why they’ve become a dink and dunk team and it’s not because they don’t have top quality downfield receivers...
And this week in sentences you never would have anticipated reading before 2020...
Hahahahahaha. Oh mate. That’s funny.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7
Carolina Panthers (4-10) at Washington Football Team (6-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Fella went to the strip club after a loss and left his mask at home.
The NFC East truly never quits.
Also... important context...
Wildcard’s Pick: Betting on Alex Smith to return so that Washington win by 6
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 4
New York Giants (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Still got a lot of love for Dez Bryant from his Cowboys days so pretty cool to see this from him...
Also this is what Lamar Jackson has done in the last three games...
71.4% COMP | 171 YDS/G | 6 TD | 2 INT | 9.7 AY/A | 120.6 RATE | 253 RUSH YDS | 4 RUSH TD
It’s a bit hard to compare his stats to other quarterbacks given the heavy rushing prominence but anyone can see that those numbers are a big improvement on what he’d been doing earlier in the campaign and with the Giants and Bengals to follow the Ravens could just be playing themselves into form at the ideal time. Or maybe they’re building up expectations by beating up on weak teams (though he did drop the Browns in there... so to speak) only to eventually disappoint in the playoffs. I dunno, I’d rather be beating bad teams like the Ravens are doing than losing to bad teams like the Steelers.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 9
Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) at Houston Texans (4-10)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 10
Denver Broncos (5-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Pleased for Justin Herbert that he could lead his team to a nice overtime win there. Chipping away as the season goes along, his numbers have been fantastic for a rookie quarterback from day one (five games with 3+ TD passes, seven games with 300+ passing yards... and two with both) but that hasn’t always transferred into wins. Recall that one of those five season wins came in week one when he didn’t play. Through his first nine starts he was 1-8 and that win was against the Jaguars. Through his first 12 games he was 2-10 and the other win was against the Jets. But the Chargers have topped the Falcons and Raiders in a row now and Herbert has been very good, influential even, in both. Love that from the young fella, it’s one thing to deliver a deep throw like you’re passing the salt across the Christmas dinner table but gotta get those wins.
Herbert has now tied Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 touchdown passes
Herbert is 27 completions short of breaking Carson Wentz’s rookie record
Herbert is 594 passing yards short of breaking Andrew Luck’s rookie record
Pretty fascinating comparison between Herbert and the bloke that he replaced...
Justin Herbert: 66.5% COMP | 3781 YDS | 27 TD | 10 INT | 7.3 AY/A | 96.3 RATE
Philip Rivers: 68.7% COMP | 3735 YDS | 22 TD | 9 INT | 7.8 AY/A | 99.0 RATE
One man at the beginning of his career, one man near the end. Daybreak versus twilight. The cycle of the seasons goes ever on.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 4
Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) at Dallas Cowboys (5-9)
Monday 10.25am NZT
This is nice, usually when the Cowboys play the Eagles late in the season there’s a playoff spot on the line and something horrible happens... and maybe there is a spot on the line here too... but at this point I don’t even care so it doesn’t matter. The Cowboys under absolutely no possible logic deserve to make the playoffs and the prospect of them doing exactly that feels worse for the team than missing out. There’s a defensive co-ordinator who needs sacking and a playoff appearance might not allow that to happen, not to mention how important their draft is going to be for replenishing the offensive line and defence. The fellas actually drafted really well last season. So couple that with the Jalen Hurts Emergence and for once a late season defeat to the Eagles won’t be such a drama.
And those lads will definitely lose. Mike McCarthy just got his first winning streak as Cowboys coach so good for him... I think... but both those wins (Bengals and Niners) came about because of some intensive turnover stats. Three takeaways against Cincy and four against San Fran with none given up on offence, that’s gonna win you most games. Not even the Cowboys can spoil that advantage. They’d only had two games with multiple takeaways all year prior – one was against the Eagles where they had four takeaways but turned it back over twice and still lost. There are signs that maybe the defence is starting to figure out how to trust each other, stick to their own assignments, and play aggressively rather than on the back foot. Just signs.
But the last time they played a quarterback with genuine rushing ability was Lamar Jackson and he torched them so I honestly cannot see how that awful run defence can even lay a hand on Hurst so long as Philly don’t do a Philly special and cock it up themselves. You never know with these NFC East jokers. Washington could clinch the division with a win in their own game coupled with an Eagles win here (and the Giants losing too). I hope so. They’re the only team who even slightly deserves a playoff spot out of this group.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 9
Los Angeles Rams (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
Monday 10.25am NZT
The Rams lost to the Jets, man. They lost to the Jets.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 7
Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Monday 2.20pm NZT
Derrick Henry’s numbers are incredible, no doubt. Absolutely insane, in fact. But consider what Derrick Henry is achieving and now consider that he’s doing that on the same offence as Ryan Tannehill whose season stats read like this:
66.5% COMP | 2482 YDS | 31 TD | 5 INT | 9.0 AY/A | 110.4 RATE
Add another 10 games to that to encompass his entire Titans career (26 games, 24 starts) and it gets even better:
68.0% COMP | 6224 YDS | 53 TD | 11 INT | 9.7 AY/A | 113.3 RATE
I’m not even sure people realise how goddamn excellently Ryan Tannehill has been playing. As someone who wasted plenty of time defending him and his injured ass while he was a Dolphin, at least now I can say I’ve got some receipts in the archives.
Aaron Rodgers on the other hand, everybody knows how great he is and what an outstanding season he’s delivering. This game could be fantastic. The Packers have a little more to play for since they can still get the top seed whereas the Titans are going to have to play in week one regardless. But they’re neck and neck with the Colts for the division (with the tiebreaker in their favour) so it’s not like they’re rocking up without a care. Still need a win or a Dolphins/Ravens loss to clinch a playoff spot too. Very much pumped for this game. The Titans have been in some genuinely amazing games this season – an unstoppable offence mixed with a pretty rubbish defence and that’ll do the trick.
It must be working, being the punching bag, because Rodgers just topped 40 passing touchdowns for the third season in his career. Nobody else in history has done that as many times. There are only 14 instances of 40+ passing TDs in a season ever. These are the jokers to have achieved that: Peyton Manning (2013 & 2004), Tom Brady (2007), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Dan Marino (1984 & 1986), Drew Brees (2011 & 2012), Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2016 & 2020), Matthew Stafford (2011), Kurt Warner (1999), Andrew Luck (2014). Russell Wilson is three short of getting there this year, Patrick Mahomes is four short. A couple others have a chance of getting to forty with back to back huge games but wouldn’t be betting on it.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3, yeah I said it
Buffalo Bills (11-3) at New England Patriots (6-8)
Tuesday 2.15pm NZT
That’s the one. That’s the one right there.
He loses 10% of each of those stats for this though...
Merry Christmas and goodnight.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 3
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