Where Are We At With The New Zealand Breakers, Halfway Through NBL26?
The past offseason ushered in a new era for the NZ Breakers with fresh ownership and a promised return to their Aotearoa identity. That switch came as a blessed relief after several years of mediocrity packaged as global ambition. The new owners never directly repudiated the old ones but they didn’t have to because actions speak louder than words and everything they did felt like a response to the direction the franchise had been taking previously... starting with Dillon Boucher returning in a general manager role and signing a bunch of established kiwi players. Lots to be excited about, lots to engage with.
And then they lost the first four games of the new season and looked kinda atrocious in the process. Criticism was quick and, especially from across the ditch, it tended to take the form of: “look, it’s nice to see them signing kiwis but are we sure these guys are good enough?”. That’s an argument that we’ll dig into soon because whether or not the kiwi depth players were performing (some were, some weren’t)... that’s irrelevant if the starters aren’t doing their jobs.
But the Breakers have at least latched onto a steadier course since then. Can’t seem to win consecutive games but following those shocking first four outings they have gone 5-6 heading into the FIBA break, establishing what’s turned out to be one of the better defences in the NBL. The biggest red flag that remains is the one that’s been there the whole way through: fourth quarter offence in close games. And yet the games they’ve won have almost all been blowouts so when it clicks, it really clicks for them – these guys have a 5-10 record but still somehow hold a positive points differential.
It’s no less erratic when you shift the focus to the individuals. Parker Jackson-Cartwright does things that are absolutely astonishing on a basketball court... and yet he’s also the main architect for their terrible fourth quarters. Izaiah Brockington didn’t put up a positive plus/minus until the tenth game of the season. Rob Baker felt like a non-factor for the first couple months, although that seems to be changing now. Izayah Le’Afa has been playing really solid stuff except for the fact that he’s lost all confidence in his jump shot. Meanwhile, Sam Mennenga has discovered the week to week consistency that eluded him last season, leading the team in scoring having hit double figures in 11/14 appearances with six of those being 20+ point games. And we can’t overlook a breakthrough campaign from Carlin Davison who has already tripled his total minutes from NBL25.
Close Games & Fourth Quarters
The fact that this team is 5-10 and has a +2 overall points differential is some wild behaviour but it makes perfect sense if you’ve been tracking them game to game. To sum it up: the Breakers wins have all been blowouts (except for the most recent one against Cairns) and they’ve somehow conspired to lose every single close game they’ve played in. Their winning margins have been: 15 points (Illawarra), 21 points (Tasmania), 35 points (Illawarra), 35 points (Brisbane), and 6 points (Cairns).
That last one looks like an anomaly, perhaps even a signal of lessons being learned... except it’s not. Because we’re talking about the entirety of their fourth quarters here, from which the Breakers have been outscored on 12/15 occasions (including that one). They’ve held 4Q leads in six of their ten losses. The real tip-off is where the game’s at after three frames, that’s how you know whether the Breakers are going to win or not...
Breakers Points Differential By Quarter
| Overall | Wins | Losses | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q | -8 | 38 | -46 | -1 | -7 |
| 2Q | 63 | 35 | 28 | 51 | 12 |
| 3Q | -6 | 44 | -50 | -16 | 10 |
| 4Q | -47 | 6 | -53 | -19 | -28 |
| Total | 2 | 123 | -121 | 15 | -13 |
Weirdly, the Breakers are incredible in second quarters. They’ve also been outscored by 47 combined points in fourth quarters, thus illustrating the point. They’re winning games because they do the damage before they get to the fourth, when everything condenses and it becomes a possession to possession contest. Look at those graphics and you’ll see that NZB are 5-0 when leading by at least ten points after three quarters... and 0-10 when the margin is anything less. If you want to look at it from a more generous perspective you could say that the highest 3Q lead they’ve coughed up was only four points... but regardless they have had six instances where the margin was four points or less in either direction as the fourth quarter began and they are 0-6 in those games.
Yeah righto... but why? What’s making them such a rancid fourth quarter team, crumbling whenever the result is on the line? Well, as an example of what that looks like, let us have a geeze at the worst of their fourth quarters: against Adelaide in Christchurch on 6 November. The Breakers were leading 68-66 heading into the fourth and these were the outcomes of every possession they from then onwards...
Turnover (PJC), Missed Three (Baker), Missed Three (PJC), Missed Three (Brockington), Missed Two (PJC) with two missed tips from offensive rebounds (both Baker), Missed Two (Lopez) with two missed tips from offensive rebounds (Mennenga & PJC), Turnover (PJC), Turnover (Brockington), Missed Three (Mennenga), Missed Three (Darling), Free Throws (1/2 Mennenga), Missed Three (Brockington), Missed Two (Brockington), Turnover (Brockington), Missed Two (Mennenga), Missed Three (Lopez), Missed Three (PJC), Free Throws (1/2 Lopez), Made Two (Baker), Free Throws (2/2 Brockington), Missed Two (PJC), Made Two (PJC), Made Two (Brockington), Free Throws (1/2 PJC), Free Throws (0/2 PJC), Missed Three (PJC)
The free throw that Mennenga made was with 4:12 remaining for the first NZB point of that frame. Two points up heading into the fourth and they went scoreless for almost six minutes. All up they scored 11 4Q points from 3/21 shooting (0/9 from threes) and 5/10 at the free throw line. The guiltiest culprit was Parker Jackson-Cartwright who went 1/7 in the fourth (the made bucket being a runaway layup after a steal) with three missed free throws and a couple of turnovers.
They’re not usually that bad, however the patterns are often similar. It’s in the fourth quarter that Parker Jackson-Cartwright decides he needs to start doing everything. The ball stops moving as he works around ball-screens, trying to get to the hoop where his 5’11 height inevitably sees him swarmed out by condensing defences that know exactly what he’s trying to do. Outside of Karim Lopez and Rob Baker, the Breakers are also a poor three-point shooting team so there’s not a lot to keep teams outside if the ball isn’t moving and the defence is set. There’s also no particular correlation between PJC having big numbers (points or assists) and the games that they’ve won – meaning that they’ve won and lost when he scores big and when he doesn’t, just as they’ve won and lost when his assists are up versus when they’re not. They don’t need PJC to do everything in order to win.
Jackson-Cartwright is not an MVP calibre player in the NBL, no matter how much self-confidence he may possess, but he’s still an excellent point guard. However, the Breakers are at their most effective when he’s playing balanced and efficient basketball... and sometimes, particularly in fourth quarters, it feels like he’s his own worst enemy in that regard. Actually, let’s make that second-worst enemy because he has a head coach who needs to be carrying the bulk of that responsibility. He’s the one calling the plays, setting the style, and picking the rotations. But that idea goes deeper than fourth quarters so it’s going to need it’s own segment.
Pressure on Coach Kop
Petteri Koponen was not hired by the new ownership. He was a leftover from the previous regime and there’s no reason whatsoever to think that he’d be in this gig if that decision was being made now. But since he was signed to a two-year contract (with a club option for a third), they opted not to add any more disruption by changing coaches. They players seem to respect him and Boucher has praised the attitude that Koponen was able to instil in this team last season despite the poor results. Remember, Kop’s tenure did begin with a 7-3 run... before it was completely dismantled by an ownership decision to sign Tacko Fall and force a first time head coach to completely reshuffle his tactics midseason. It was the stitch-up to beat all stitch-ups yet Kop kept the team fighting until the end.
There didn’t initially seem to be much fight in this team in NBL26 when they lost four games in a row... but credit where it’s due because he’s since got them playing some pretty sharp defence. Other issues still remain though. The fourth quarters are a major blight on Coach Kop’s tenure for reasons discussed in the last segment. Another of the other oddities is the way that he uses his rotations. Koponen’s substitutions are through the roof, he’s constantly tinkering with his line-ups, regularly using 10 or 11 players in games with nine separate blokes averaging (averaging!) at least 12 minutes per game. And only PJC is averaging more than 26 mins. Perhaps it’s a holdover from having mostly been involved in youth coaching prior this this job? It just seems logical that if you’re losing a lot of games, surely you need to get your best players out there for longer, right? Let the lads find some rhythm together.
At which point it’s gotta be said that Coach Kop has not won very many games in the NBL. After the 7-3 start to last season, they went 3-16 the rest of the way. The Tacko Fall debacle was the problem then but Fall’s long gone and the Breakers are 5-10 this term. That makes them 8-26 in their last 34 games and 15-29 overall under the guidance of Coach Kop. Get this: the Breakers have not won back to back games for 13 months, a streak that’s now reached 36 games (they did win most recently though, so they’ll have a chance to break that horrific run against the Sydney Kings on Wednesday).
Breakers Results Under Petteri Koponen
NBL25: WWLWLWWWLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLLLWL
NBL26: LLLLWLWLLWLLWLW
This is so obviously a frisky situation for Koponen. He’s a foreign coach hired by a previous administration whose replacements are trying to re-establish the local foundations. A signifier of what they’re attempting to change. That change has been reflected in the roster they’ve assembled, in the way that the team is marketed... and also in the new assistant coaches that have been hired. Out went the plethora of imported assistants hailing from nations all over the planet (including those that Kop helped hand-pick last season). In their place are Aotearoa mentors Judd Flavell and Matt Lacey. Where this gets even tougher for Koponen is that Judd Flavell actually applied for the Breakers head coaching job when Koponen was hired. Flavell has since settled into the Tall Black role so perhaps he’s happy doing that and being an assistant... but if it does get to the point where Koponen is fired (or not re-signed) then there’s a very obvious replacement already in-house standing over his shoulder.
The Kiwi Depth
Gonna say it again, louder for those at the back of the room, because anyone who claims that the Breakers are losing because they signed too many subpar kiwi players is not paying attention. Only one of the kiwis is in the starting five and that’s Sam Mennenga who has been the team’s best player thus far. Everybody else is coming off the bench and playing, like, 10-15 minutes. Maybe 20 if it’s Le’Afa or Davison. The kiwi players are the depth players and depth players don’t set the tone. The responsibility lies elsewhere... and even if it didn’t, well, if you’re dudes at 8, 9, 10 on the depth chart are costing you games then point the finger at the coach who keeps playing them.
Sam Mennenga suffered more than anyone from the Tacko Fall debacle. That was his position. He got messed around and had his role became confused and of course that was going to affect his consistency. Mennenga still had games where he was amazing but he wasn’t able to do that on demand. Then he went and had an incredible offseason stint in Puerto Rico followed by some NBA Summer League with the Los Angeles Lakers and now he’s back levelled up and living up to the dreams of what he can be. Mennenga has as many games with 25+ points as he does single digit scoring games in NBL26. He’s still got room to bring a little more finesse to his touch in the paint and his three-pointers are leaving a bit to be desired. But, on the whole, Mennenga has been superb.
Sam Mennenga By Season (Per Game)
NBL24 (Cairns):
17.0 MIN | 6.9 PTS (46.8 FG%) | 5.2 FGA | 3.9 REB (1.0 ORB) | 0.7 AST
NBL25 (NZB):
22.3 MIN | 11.9 PTS (50.6 FG%) | 9.3 FGA | 5.4 REB (1.6 ORB) | 1.0 AST
NBL26 (NZB):
26.6 MIN | 16.9 PTS (48.9 FG%) | 13.0 FGA | 7.4 REB (2.6 ORB) | 1.6 AST
There are five Breakers with positive Net Ratings at this stage of the season. Sam Mennenga and Karim Lopez are at the top of that chart (both +12). Rob Baker has been doing sneaky work of late, becoming more and more beneficial to this team after a slow start... and of course Parker Jackson-Cartwright is on the list too. His sloppy fourth quarters don’t override the fact that he’s borderline unstoppable when the team gets into its flow. The other one? That’d be the bro Carlin Davison.
At 22 years old, CD is younger than all of the Development Players with only 18yo Lopez having seen fewer summers. The Carlin Davison Experience is always a thrill, as his insane athleticism contends with the rawness of his game. He’ll shank a dunk every now and then trying to make the highlight reel. He’ll turn the ball over needlessly. But he’ll make plays that nobody could have conceived. Some coaches hate that unpredictability but happily Petteri Koponen has chosen to take the bad with the good and that’s paying off for him - Davison has played at least 15 minutes in all five of NZB’s wins.
Other than that, we’re dealing with role players of various capacities. Reuben Te Rangi was presumably signed for his off-court influence and leadership as much as what he does with ball in hand, especially as the team attempts to reset its culture. Coach Kop had him starting the first few games and that didn’t go very well. More recently RTR has eased into a nice little bench role where he’s doing a lot better, in fact he’s got a made three in each of his last four games. Rob Loe also seems to be starting to figure it out after a poor start followed by a concussion absence.
Izayah Le’Afa’s been good the whole way, with the Breakers regularly putting up better plus/minus numbers with Le’Afa on the floor instead of Brockington in the same position. It’d look a whole lot more obvious if he could hit his threes though. Le’Afa has always been a streaky shooter with the 5/9 3PM nights balancing out the 0/4 nights. He did score 14 points with 4/7 three-point shooting in an early season loss to Perth but that’s the only game in which he’s hit multiple triples. Yeah, not ideal. The platform is there for him to become a really valuable player – he’s a great defender and a capable ball-handler and a selfless teammate – but only if he can get that shot to drop. At the moment, he doesn’t even seem to want to shoot it.
And we haven’t seen a huge amount from Max Darling or Taylor Britt yet. Darling does occasionally get elevated when the match-up calls for a little more size in the forward positions. Britt’s stuck back in the point guard queue and hasn’t done enough in limited minutes to demand more.
There is one aspect of the kiwi player criticism that does ring true though. That’s the idea that the Breakers didn’t sign the best available NZers. We know that they went after Flynn Cameron and missed out, with Cameron instead averaging 10.4p/4.1r/2.5a in 26 minutes per game with Adelaide. He’s also shooting 38% from three so there’s no doubt that he would have been an improvement on the Le’Afa signing. Same deal with Finn Delany joining Melbourne, that one doesn’t even need explaining. NBL rookie Taine Murray was a Breakers development player once upon a time and he’s had some pretty useful outings with Brisbane already.
Guys like Yanni Wetzell and Tai Webster weren’t realistic targets while playing overseas and unproven Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones probably wasn’t what they were looking for (he did NBA Summer League with Toronto and is now playing pro in the Latvia-Estonia league). Meanwhile, the Mojave King scenario is a funny one because at the point when NZB opted not to re-sign him, that was absolutely the right decision to make after a disappointing NBL25 campaign from King. But since then he’s had a brilliant season in the NZ league followed by his committing to the Tall Blacks and performing really nicely at the Asia Cup and now he’s looking flash for the Cairns Taipans. The player they chose not to re-sign and the player he is now... not the same dude. But you can bet they wish they had 2025 Mojave on the books right about now.
Nope, the Breakers didn’t recruit the cream of the crop. But, like, these guys weren’t ever meant to be the starting five. The New Zealand role players are out there doing what they’re doing but the main reason the team is starting to win some games now (0-4 start, 5-6 since) is because the imports have (massively) raised their levels from where they were before. Those are the star players. Those are the blokes who make the difference between a narrow win and a close loss, more times than not.
NZ Breakers Individual Net Ratings
(Net Rating = Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating)
| After 8 Games | After 15 Games | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Mennenga | 15.1 | 12.8 | -2.3 |
| Karim Lopez | 3.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 |
| Rob Baker | 1.7 | 10.9 | 9.2 |
| Parker Jackson-Cartwright | -7.7 | 1.4 | 9.1 |
| Carlin Davison | 1.8 | 1.2 | -0.6 |
| Izaiah Brockington | -11.7 | -1.7 | 10 |
| Rob Loe | -4.9 | -6.5 | -1.6 |
| Izayah Le'Afa | -10.1 | -15 | -4.9 |
| Reuben Te Rangi | -28.5 | -21.8 | 6.7 |
Playing Defence
Underneath the struggling offence, the Breakers have emerged as a really good defensive team. They were absolutely shocking in the 0-4 start with Defensive Ratings (points allowed per 100 possessions) in those games of: 123, 130, 114, 119. Since then their DRtg’s read: 99, 107, 84, 125, 101, 73, 113, 97, 94, 111, 121. Enjoy a visual representation from the spectacular resource that is Spatial Jam...
Bit of a slippery one away to Melbourne in there while the Cairns win was not their best effort defensively but every team has games like that in a league as competitive as the NBL. Overall, the Breakers rank second with a 107.3 Defensive Rating, trailing only Melbourne United (103.3 DRtg)... which rises to first if you take out those first four games. Initial impressions were ugly yet here we are at the mid-point of the season and the Breakers are one of the league’s very best defensive teams. They made it an offseason priority to restore some pride on the defensive end and that much, at least, seems to have come true. They were third-worst at 120.8 DRtg last season so these are some big improvements. In fact, this defensive foundation is probably the number one aspect in Coach Kop’s favour right now.
Winning Factors For A 5-10 Team
When the Breakers give up 11 or fewer turnovers they’re 4-3
When the Breakers shoot 46% FG or better, they’re 4-1
When the Breakers shoot better than 33% from threes, they’re 3-1
When the Breakers have 26 or fewer three-point attempts, they’re 3-2
When the Breakers get 20+ assists, they’re 4-1 (all five wins have come with at least 18 assists)
When the Breakers have a Defensive Rating under 100, they’re 4-1
When the Breakers score 100+ points, they’re 4-0
When the Breakers score 50+ points in the paint, they’re 4-2
Those are all stats that you’d expect to be reflected in wins but the point is to show that the Breakers are capable of all of these things, they just don’t do them often enough. Keep the ball moving through the hands as opposed to letting PJC do everything. Always makes sure Mennenga gets his touches in the paint. Protect possessions by avoiding the silly turnovers. Stay locked in defensively. And by all means do not get over-reliant on the three ball... except for Karim Lopez and Rob Baker because those two are great shooters. Everybody else is bad from deep - there are no average jump shooters in this team. The evidence, your honour...
Breakers Three Point Shooting
Parker Jackson-Cartwright - 21/74 at 28.4%
Rob Baker – 28/66 at 42.4%
Sam Mennenga – 15/57 at 26.3%
Izaiah Brockington – 14/54 at 25.9%
Izayah Le’Afa – 11/49 at 22.4%
Karim Lopez – 19/47 at 40.4%
Reuben Te Rangi – 12/43 at 28.6%
Rob Loe – 6/26 at 23.1%
Carlin Davison – 3/15 at 20%
Max Darling – 3/14 at 21.4%
Taylor Britt – 1/7 at 14.3%
Sean Bairstow – 1/3 at 33.3%
Another oddity in this rollercoaster season is that the Breakers might be down near the bottom of the league standings but they’ve had two massive wins in their Ignite Cup games. There was a 117-88 win over Illawarra at home and there was a 113-84 win against Brisbane away. They won 7/8 quarters across those two games, leaving them just one point away from a maximum haul after two fixtures. The NBL’s Ignite Cup is a copycat of the NBA’s in-season tournament where certain games also count towards that bonus tournament with extra prize money on offer at the end of it and a grand final to be played outside of the NBL’s regular season. All the games are played on Wednesday nights and that seems to have worked out nicely for the Weeknight Breakers...
Breakers Record By Day
Wednesday: 2-0
Thursday: 0-2
Friday: 2-1
Saturday: 1-3
Sunday: 0-4
They’re 4-3 on weeknights and 1-7 on weekends.
Of course, after going through all these different ups and downs and the various causes and ramifications of this season so far... it might cloud the whole thing to point out something as simple as the fact that the Breakers, currently sitting seventh, are 5-2 against teams in the bottom half of the current standings and 0-8 against top-half teams.
Some of those eight losses have been thrashings, others have been close ones that they could have (maybe even should have) gotten the better of. All of their wins have come after leading by double-digits after three quarters. All of their wins have come against other teams with losing records. They’re actually only a couple of wins outside the play-in spots as it stands but the Breakers are not going anywhere until they prove they can win close games and beat good teams. Put a few of those in the bag and then maybe we can talk about play-ins and playoffs.
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