If this is how the season ends then, to quote a dead poet, it happened not with a bang but with a whimper. Through the first quarter in Sydney it was close, both teams trading hoops… but that’s about where the resistance ended. The Kings won the second quarter by a margin of 22 points to 13 and then a horrific seven point third for the Breakers (coupled with conceding 26 points at the other end) pretty much ended all hope. This was a terrible performance and it probably ends their realistic chances of making the playoffs.

But this isn’t a eulogy, buddy. We may as well hope while hope still remains. The Breaks now have to go to top of the table Adelaide and beat them, whilst also winning back home against Melbourne and hoping that 14-14 is good enough for fourth place. It still might be, with head to heads likely to come into contention.

On that note, let’s take a closer look at those H2Hs:

• NZB vs Melbourne: 2 W | 1 L | -13 PD
• NZB vs Adelaide: 1 W | 2 L | -2 PD
• NZB vs Brisbane: 3 W | 1 L | +19 PD
• NZB vs Illawarra: 2 W | 2 L | -11 PD
• NZB vs Cairns: 0 W | 4 L | -33 PD
• NZB vs Perth: 3 W | 1 L | +15 PD
• NZB vs Sydney: 1 W | 3 L | -28 PD

Alrighty, that’s with two games yet to be played so Adelaide and Melly aren’t finalised. They can take both of those series with wins… although Adelaide doesn’t matter. They aren’t gonna need the tiebreaker against them when ADL have already clinched top spot for the regular season and did so a couple weeks back.

The series with Cairns was a whitewash, the series with Sydney was surrendered on the weekend. They woulda claimed it with a victory but instead lost by 27 points so never mind that one. Banish it from the memories. They have, however, already wrapped up tiebreakers over the Brisbane Bullets and Perth Wildcats, although a nine-point win over Illawarra during the fabled four game win streak wasn’t enough to overturn the deficit there on aggregate scoring. Here’s the table as it stands with two rounds remaining…

Bit of a problem in there: the Bullets are all but eliminated, a single result against them confirms that now so that particular tiebreaker is worthless – they only way they end tied would be at 12-16… which won’t make the top four. It does mean the Breakers can’t finish last though, woohoo.

The reason the tiebreakers are so important for the Breakers is that 14-14 is the best they can possibly do now. No team out there (bar the 36ers) has won 14 times yet but most of them have games in hand on the Breakers. Sydney have also played 26 times but they’re at 13-13, playing Melbourne at home and then Perth away. On the basis of the tiebreaker, they win either of those and the Breakers cannot finish above them (unless we get into some complicated three-way tie things, which might happen but isn’t worth forecasting now). Same goes for the Illawarra Hawks, who at 13-12 would need to lose three in a row for the Breakers to catch them. Home to Cairns, away to Melbourne and home to Brisbane… that looks a tough one to overcome.

At 12-12, Perth can split and the Breakers can get them. Hey, the Breakers were 12-12 once as well. Wasn’t even that long ago. Meanwhile 12-12 Cairns had better lose three of their last four. As for Melbourne at 11-13… well we have to assume the Breakers beat them or else all of this is irrelevant and if they do then they finish above them, that’s-my-final-answer-lock-it-in-Michael. Since nobody has all day to crunch the intricate numbers of what it means when one team plays another, simplify the rest of the season like this: the Breakers need Melbourne and Brisbane to win all of their games (except the one against NZB) and then we’ll see what happens. They need Perth to win at least one but not more than two and it’s okay if two of Illawarra, Cairns and Sydney win again (Cairns would need two wins) because we’d settle for fourth at the moment… but if all three do then we’re buggered. Amongst that trio there are games remaining against each other, so that helps balance things.

If those Brisbane, Melbourne and Breakers results do all go the right way (so: best case scenario), then this’ll be the state of things:

1. Adelaide: 17-6
2. Cairns: 12-12
3. Breakers: 14-14
4. Melbourne: 14-14
5. Illawarra: 13-14
6. Sydney: 13-14
7. Perth: 12-14
8. Brisbane: 12-16

Which means that it’s probably okay for Perth to win their last two games – keep in mind that this is all speculative and probably not without a few errors. Plus these games are being considered all out of order. Still, that means defeats for Cairns and Sydney. The three remaining ignored games all involve Cairns. Let’s say bugger it and let them win all three and sure enough that gives the Breakers a playoff spot. So there you go, proof that it can happen. Now all we need is literally all of that (or something close) to go our way and they oughta do it.

Of course, none of this matters if they can’t beat Adelaide away in Adelaide on Saturday night and on the basis of the last two performances that really doesn’t seem likely. When they last played away to the 36ers it was a 102-92 defeat in which Jerome Randle scored 37 points looking pretty much unguardable. The Breakers have made some big changes since then but one thing that remains is that there’s nobody that can guard a dude like Randle. Kevin Dillard (or ‘K.Dilla’ as he should be known) has cooled off from his offensive tear lately, coinciding with these two defeats funnily enough, however he still has it in him to bring some serious offence. Not a great defender though, he’s a short lad (granted as is Randle) and he’s new to the system.

It’d be rude to speculate on whether Akil Mitchell will be available (fingers crossed and goggles on). He would supply an alternative of scoring option, which always helps. Probably their best dude on the offensive boards, definitely with how he scores from them. Frankly there are a lot of things that need to go right, it isn’t even worth listing them.

Top of that unlisted list though? That’d be turnovers. The Breakers had an astonishing 25 turnovers against Sydney, with Kirk Penney and K.Dilla combining for 10 of those. Seven of the ten players that were used had at least two. That’s carrying on from a less frightening 12 against Perth, though Dillard still had four. Even in the win over Perth the game before that here were 24 TOs. It’s impossible not to love the sight of Kevin Dillard holding his dribble on the perimeter, casually going between the legs as he plots which way he’ll cross this sucker over. Except he’s that little bit too casual and at this stage of the season that’s not gonna work. He’s had at least three turnovers in every game, with 29 in seven contests all combined.

Across those defeats to Cairns and Sydney, this is what he did:

16 PTS (6/20 FG, 1/7 3PT) | 7 REB | 7 AST | 8 TO | 6 PF

You only have to look as far as Russell Westbrook and James Harden in the NBA to see that you can live with a high turnover rate if you’re scoring and assisting as well. Dillard was leading this team to wins in the four games prior and he was still turning the ball over a fair amount. What you can’t live with is when those other things aren’t happening and your teammates are also getting careless with the sphere. Ball’s in your hands now, K.Dilla. No pressure but the season is on the line.

This season at least, but, by the looks of this, future seasons should be alright. After the loss in Sydney, an away defeat remember, young forward Finn Delany returned to the court for some solo shoot-around and according to reporters who were still there filing their match reports or whatever, he was out there alone for at least a full hour of extra practice. That’s dedication. Delany had 6 points shooting 2/6 for the game, with 6 boards. For the season he’s shooting 53.8% while playing around eight and a half minutes per game (5/13 from deep). This is all for context so you can remember it when he’s dominating the damn league in a couple years.

Season MVP Standings

Kirk Penney – 30

Alex Pledger – 22

Tom Abercrombie – 2

MVP Points at SYD

Tom Abercrombie – 3

Alex Pledger – 2

Finn Delany – 1