Kirk Penney’s Back! Hooray! But What Does It Mean?!
“I read the news today, oh boy…”
Remember how last year Kirk Penney, New Zealand basketball deity, was maybe possibly gonna return to the NBL after his contract in Spain ran up and we semi-assumed it’d be at the Breakers where he’s already a club legend after his last stint but it wasn’t and he signed for the Illawarra Hawks instead? And how whether or not the Breakers had the roster room or the salary space to offer him a legit contract, it was still pretty stink to see him playing for a rival, especially when he then made a point of absolutely slaying NZB whenever they played? Well that’s all in the past now because our boy’s coming home!
Kirk Penney has signed a three-year contract that’ll likely see him end his career on the Shore as a New Zealand Breaker. Along with Steven Adams and Sean Marks, he Penney is one of only three NZers to have played in the NBA and he’s already won championships with the Breaks. This is pretty awesome. Massive news. Although it could have a fairly significant fallout.
For one thing, it’s a heavy kick in the crotch for the Illawarra Hawks. The beaten semi-finalists of last year lose their top scorer to a rival team and it comes just 11 days after League MVP Kevin Lisch announced that he was taking his talents to Sydney and hooking up with their new coach, a certain Andrew Gaze. Having gone from last to third in the space of one season, it looks like they’ll probably head on back down the ladder from here. But at least A.J. Ogilvy has re-signed.
Kevin Lisch, by the way, got his Aussie citizenship this year and will probably play for the Boomers at the Olympics now because obviously they didn’t already have enough great basketballers in that team.
The new NBL rules for contracts and salaries say they’re supposed to promote equity around the league but they probably suit the bigger balances of Sydney, etc. more than anything. A soft cap always suits those comfortable enough to pay the tax. But that’s not a bad thing for the NBL because in order for it to stay commercially viable it’s pretty important that there are teams with money that are willing to spend it. If the Sydney Kings become the Brisbane Broncos of the NBL then that’s gonna get annoying with the excessive coverage and all that but so it goes. The important thing here is that the Breakers are laying down gauntlets already. Runners-up last season, they’re not resting on one single laurel.
The other thing about the new rules is that there’s an extra spot for an import player. Kirk Penney is not one of those so right now as it stands they have three open spaces for potential NBA rejects or European veterans or however they play it. They still have to pay them so don’t go expecting Kevin Durant or anyone, just that there is still plenty of room to manoeuvre.
Actually, let’s look at that squad. Three players were signed up for next season already: Mika Vukona, Corey Webster and Tom Abercrombie. Great core right there, and they added to that last week with Alex Pledger inking his signature on a three year contract. Now add in Kirk Penney and there are five spaces filled already, six empty slots. As it stands only Melbourne have a more complete roster though they’re waiting anxiously for Chris Goulding to finish up in Europe and decide what he wants to do next.
United has already lost Dan Kickert to the re-established Brisbane Bullets and there should be genuine fear that Goulding might follow him into the steamy depths of Queensland. CG43 was a Bullets development player when the club folded in 2008 and although he was born in Tasmania, he lived in Brisbane for most of his childhood.
Hey look, the main reason Kirk Penney’s coming back is to be closer to family. He had a daughter last year and is a born and bred North Shoreman. His parents live locally and that’s clearly all a big part of The Return. So, you know, don’t be shocked if Goulding’s feeling equally sentimental. Also, being seven years younger than KP, don’t be shocked if he goes and plays for a quality European side full-time instead and makes ban on that career prime. Or has one more stint in the NBA Summer Leagues.
That’s a worry/excitement that we should hold for Corey Webster too. He might wanna go chase the dream as well and if he does then awesome, best luck to him. That might also solve the biggest basketball dilemma that this lovely bit of Tuesday news brings: Kirk Penney, Corey Webster, Cedric Jackson. Three does not go into two.
The first thing to note is that Cedric is currently off contract and no guarantee at all to return. Especially with the expansion team in Brisbane coming into things with a significant Breakers connection (Lemanis/Bruton/Clarke) and a blank roster to fill. There are rumours that Cedric is being highly targeted by a number of other clubs which only makes sense for a guy as talented as he is but you’d assume the Breakers are up near the top of that list.
He, Corey and Kirk should all be playing at least 30-35 minutes a game but there are only 80 minutes of guard time to go around. Maybe Kirk is willing to take a step back and play closer to 25 or so off the bench but even then there’s the task of getting them all on the court in crunch time. Push Penney to SF? Yeah but then what to do with Tom Abercrombie? At a stretch you could push him to PF and then the club’s best defender, Mika Vukona, is out of the reckoning. Hmm… we’ll come back to this idea. Cedric will be aware of this and you can possibly argue that in signing Penney they’ve made their choice between the two.
It’s a Breakers philosophy to take care of their own free agents before they go looking elsewhere and you can expect new GM Dillon Boucher to be crunching the numbers with Tai Wesley before anything else. Kirk Penney likely gets an exemption into that category so don’t read much into that, but there’s a very real chance that when they come to call on Cedric Jackson he won’t be available any longer. Other teams have to know that and be targeting that. But here’s the other thing: it might not be such a big loss.
Okay, one of the best players in the club’s history, a guy who has made the finals in every one of his seasons. But we saw last campaign the weaknesses that he does have in his game. Kirk Penney shot an incredible 44.8% on threes in 2015-16. Cedric Jackson shot 30.7%. He went on a hot streak late in the season but that dried up in the finals. The thing is, he is a superb playmaker off the dribble but if defenders don’t respect your shot then they aren’t gonna guard you close enough for you to run around them. As the primary ball handler, that pushed the Breakers into some very static situations where Cedric was stuck looking for an alternative option and often was forced to put it up himself to limited effect. It didn’t help that he wasn’t surrounded by open shooters either. Webster was regularly the focus of extra defensive pressure (standing off Ced means it’s easier to commit as a help defender also, plus it can nullify the switch) and Tom Abercrombie can only do so much. Everard Bartlett shot over 40% from three but his defence wasn’t nearly good enough to get him on the court regularly (not to mention the minute-eaters ahead of him) and as for Reuben Te Rangi’s 29.4% FG and 21.5% 3pt shooting season… the less said the better. Cedric also brings the best defence of the Webster/Penney/Jackson trio but if you’re making a choice between the three then… well, that choice has already been made with only two under contract.
Without Ced there the main problem is who carries the ball. Kirk and Corey are both natural shooting guards, though Corey probably plays as PG with shared playmaking duties. He did that a bit with Cedric anyway, not to mention training at the point with the New Orleans Pelicans in NBA pre-season. He’s a better passer than he’s shown as well and with a Webster/Penney/Abercrombie/Vukona/Pledger line-up, for example, you’ll likely see more ball movement and added spacing which is pretty much the aim of the game in modern basketball. Look, letting Cedric Jackson walk is a risk and it only works when you can bring in a player of the calibre of Kirk Penney (who at 35 is showing no signs of slowing down). This is a new era for the Breakers. Paul Henare is head coach and Dillon Boucher GM. We don’t know what conversations are going on between the two.
Reuben Te Rangi is a curious one. Obviously he’s far better than he showed last Breakers season and he proves as much in the NZ NBL stuff. He suffers from the squeeze in available opportunities on a team with so many playmakers but that’s why you need to be able to take your chances as a fringe player and abysmal shooting makes it hard to justify a place. He can be better and he will be better. But the longer it goes without him being re-signed the more you wonder if they might move on from him. To be fair, good wing defence can be very hard to find.
Shea Ili is ready for more responsibility so bringing back Cedric would be another obstacle in his path. Also he’s a development player and another part of the new contract rules is added encouragement for D-players. They have to, given an expansion team is coming in to stretch the talent pool out further. You can rule out any chance that Shane MacDonald returns, maybe a 5% chance. Everard Bartlett is a handy shooter who is worth another punt off the bench, while Duane Bailey – the man reluctantly cut for EB – might be another.
So far as free agents and imports go, getting some size in there is crucial. From that point of view, you could even say that Charles Jackson is a more important re-signing than Cedric Jackson is. If the Breaks can drag the defence out further from the basket with a raft of shooters than Ol’ Catfish is gonna have a field day above and around the hoop. His fouls were a large problem all season but he’s a year more mature and his defence, when he held his discipline, was very solid. Also, the more of this stuff the better:
Charles Jackson is currently paying for the 76ers' feeder team in the NBA D-League so getting him back could be difficult. The expected return of Tai Wesley, though, adds some forward range from the bench and a reliable post scoring option too. Another stretch forward would be worthwhile and then with the last spot or two on the roster, well, every fan of an NBA playoff team in the world thinks that all their team needs to polish off the squad is that crucial 3&D wing guy.
Returning to the Cedric thing, if you ask the Breakers they’ll tell you they want him back, no doubt about it. If he leaves it’ll be his own decision to chase a better role or more minutes because if it’s down to the Breaks then they want as much ability on their roster as possible. We don’t know what Webster will be doing this year and you never know who might get injured – stack the team with all the quality you can find and the coach can deal with that later. So imagine this. Imagine a situation where the Breakers can throw out a line-up, sparingly of course, of Cedric/Corey/Penney/TA/Tai. Look at all the potential offence there. Wesley has the size to play at five (he does so anyway), Penney (at this stage of his career) and Abercrombie are a stretch as forwards but in small doses that could be pure fire. Sorta like the famed Death Ball five of the Golden State Warriors, which to be fair is made possible by Draymond Green being able to defend a literally every position. Wesley is not Green by a long shot. In fact his defensive prowess drops significantly outside of the paint. But if only for fantasy’s sake, it’s a lot of fun to imagine.