The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 10

Last Week: 9-4

Season: 78-53-2

Cleveland Browns (0-9) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

It’s kinda hard to give a goddamn about America right now but here goes, better do this thing for all those divided locker rooms out there. Tell ya what, if you thought Colin Kaepernick’s protests were controversial then just strap yourself in from here on.

I blame the Browns for being so useless. And also maybe the Cubs for beating the Indians and upsetting the state of Ohio, coz when that state went to Trump was about when the watching world began to double-take. Bastards. Oh well, hopefully people start taking their creative responsibilities seriously now and stop taking the piss out of dumb politicians and start actually holding them accountable. As much as The Donald ranted about the liberal media and all that, he was completely enabled by a commercial news landscape that churned everything he did into content to the point where they normalised every horrible thing that was said. I doubt he follows through on damn near any of that in office – I kinda feel he’ll be way less demonstrative now that he’s had the vindication of election. Still, true satire is scathing and ruthless. No more Saturday Night Live prancing.

Also, don’t you think that sportsmen have had careers ended for far less than Trump was allowed to get away with? Sports sure have some serious issues with plenty of things but at least the fans (not necessarily the authorities, but some do their job out there) are ready to hold people to common decency and lawfulness. Usually. Okay, not always. But that’s still a better strike rate than The Donald. I don’t really wanna talk about this anymore, mark it a win for the Ravens and let’s move on.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 7

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)

Riiiight, now for the actual matters of relevance. We know that the Panthers are much better than they’ve shown in 2016. Clearly not as good as their 15-1 season in 2015 but still a lot better than where they were when they hit their bye at 1-5. Since then they’ve edged out wins over the Cardinals and Rams, which does them plenty of good though this is a difficult one for Cam and the Lads.

Ordinarily you’d say a team that started 1-5 was out of it but then you don’t have to look that far back to find a precedent. The Panthers have recovered to 3-5 now. Last season the Houston Texans were at 1-4 and 2-5 before reeling off four wins in a row and eventually recovering to 9-7 and a wildcard spot. Also in 2015, these very Kansas City Chiefs lost five games in a row (most of them nail-biters) to sit at 1-5 before winning every remaining game they played, including a 29-13 win over the Broncos… though the rest of their schedule was mostly easy. 11-5 seems, well… unlikely for the Panthers. Ah, but take it one week at a time and as long as the wins keep coming then you never know.

The recipe here is pretty well set. The Chiefs stumbled their way to a 19-14 win over the Jaguars last week. They should have Alex Smith back to play here, however the run game is as blurry as it gets with Charcandrick West starting from third on the depth chart in that one. 39 yards on 13 carries – and the Jags only are a middling rush defence at best. Jamaal Charles isn’t coming back, even if Spencer Ware has done some impressive things and is due to return. So is Justin Houston, their megastar linebacker who has just been reactivated to the roster.

For Kansas City it has been tough going dealing with so many injuries and yet here they are at 6-2. What’s gotten them there is a league-high 20 takeaways on defence and the thing about turnovers is they aren’t the most reliable measure but they have the biggest impact of any defensive plays. Turnovers come and go. If they dry up for the Chiefs then things will be interesting.

As it happens, the Panthers have been turning it over like the ball’s carrying disease or something, so bear that little wrinkle in mind when I say that I reckon the Panthers win this one.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 3

Denver Broncos (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

Wow, the Broncos are back in third now in the AFC West. That sure happened quickly, although I think it’s looking more and more likely that the West gets both AFC wildcard spots. Oh bloody hell and the Saints have an even record all of a sudden? Funny how the season progresses… can’t see them finishing any better than 7-9 though.

The Saints are averaging over 100 yards more of offence than the Broncos each game. Each game doesn’t include playing against the Denver defence, albeit they have gotten wins over Seattle and Carolina this season so Drew Brees is still picking them. As if you needed me to points that out, the bloke’s second only to Matt Ryan in passing yards with 2688 of them and he’s tossed 21 TDs – again, second only to Matty Ice. If only he had a half decent defence, aye?

Not a lot to say on this one, if Breesy is able to stretch the defence out and keep them from blitzing on the regular then he’s in with a chance. The Broncos aren’t a team that’ll steamroll you with their offence, and a close game is a game that Brees and Sean Payton back themselves in. Denver are learning what the limitations are when you play with a limited skilled quarterback, however I’m not about to assume the defending champs won’t bounce back after being dealt a heavy one with the Raiders loss.

2016 Sack Leaders:

  1. Lorenzo Alexander, BUF – 10.0
  2. Von Miller, DEN – 9.5
  3. Cliff Avril, SEA – 9.0
  4. Dee Ford, KCC – 9.0
  5. Vic Beasley Jr, ATL – 7.5

Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 6

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)

Has anybody seen Jared Goff?

I’m all for the idea of holding a quarterback in the stable for an extended time to start a career. Sure didn’t do Aaron Rodgers no harm, nor Tom Brady. But those two backed up Brett Favre and Drew Bledsoe. Jared Goff is sitting behind Case Keenum. Dammit, guys. If Goff is worse than Keenum then it’ll be the all-time worst first draft pick. Since Tim Couch, anyway.

Two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks. That’s what Goff cost. It’s fair enough if he isn’t NFL ready like Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck. Like Dak Prescott or Carson Wentz even. But hiding him in the attic just looks like they’re ashamed of him.

Ladies and gents, the prosecution now pleads its case:

  • 2492 offensive yards, second to last in the NFL
  • 130 points scored, last in the NFL
  • 14 turnovers, seventh most in the NFL
  • 5.0 yards per play, fourth fewest in the NFL
  • 141 first downs, least in the NFL

THEY SUCK SO BADLY!

Maybe the Jets give ‘em a firstie for next draft and Ryan Fitzpatrick plus maybe a late round pick too and the Rams flip Goff in turn and we can all be happy.

Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3

Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)

THERE’S A SQUIRREL ON THE FIELD! A SQUIRREL ON THE FIELD!

The Packers should get him in to play running back, that’d be an idea. It’s already got more yards than Eddie Lacy and it’s broken more tackles too.

I didn’t see the defeat to the Colts coming, to be honest, but that’s what can happen when you leak an opening kickoff return for a touchdown. The Packers were behind before either offence had hit the floor and they never quite overturned that. Given that this and the next two games are all on the road, this could be a decisive stretch for the Pack. At the Titans, at the R**skins and at the Eagles. They’d better win this one, then they can hope they split the next pair.

The Titans are well in the hunt themselves. They were touted as a possible outside playoff shot, a breakthrough team and all that, but a difficult first few games had them at 1-3 and everyone gave up on them. Instead the Oakland Raiders rightfully became that tipster’s team (the Buccs were the other option, so much for them). The Titans can play, man. Really good rushing game, a defence that can make the odd play. It’s solid. Give ‘em six or seven wins this season. Not great but better than the awful team they’ve been in the past.

Here’s a big problem: Marcus Mariota has fumbled seven times.

Here’s another big problem: The Packers are yet to score a touchdown on defence or special teams and Aaron Rodgers is responsible for both of their rushing TDs.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 7

Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Yeah, I like a bit of this one. A bird themed affair, between a couple teams that each have a fair amount of pressure on them. The Falcons are dealing with the pressure of expectation, something they wet the bed with last season, while the Eagles are dealing with the pressure of letting a promising season slip away. They fall to 4-5 and the Cowboys and Giants both win then – which is all very possible – and it’s hard to see them reeling all that distance back.

The Eagles have won all three home games and they’ve all been pretty comprehensive. From easing by the Browns to demolishing the Steelers and getting a big win over the then-undefeated Vikings too. Atlanta have only lost once on the road themselves, another reason this oughta be a lot of fun.

Philly have predictably not been able to keep up the crazy heights of ball security of the start. No surprises there. It’s the way that they volunteered the ball up on fourth down against the Giants that must be the most frustrating for the fans. Fourth & 2 on the first play of the second quarter, at the Giants 23 down by 14-3. Nope. And they coulda had a field goal, which could have been immense. Obviously you can’t go assuming the complexion of the game would’ve been the same as it eventually unfolded if they had but remember they lost by six points and their final play was a fourth & 10 with 1:28 left in the game at the NYG 17 and Wentz missed the pass. Jordan Matthews was late turning on it but the pass was off target anyway.

There was also the turnover on downs late in the second quarter after Darren Sproles’ 66 yard punt return. Fourth & 1 at the NYG 6 and Sproles is dropped for no gain. Honestly, mate. Those are nine points wasted that coudla won them the game if they weren’t so impatient. Rookie quarterback, rookie head coach. Let’s not overlook that they had a field goal blocked as well. Bloody suicidal when you combine all that.

The silver lining is that you learn those lessons and don’t make the same mistakes again. And also, come on, that’s not representative anyway. They lost that game but they showed that they were a talented enough team to have won it with room to spare, which is where the Atlanta matchup comes in. One of the clear two best passing offences, along with New England, and they’re up against this Eagles secondary that itself ranks as one of the best. Sixth best in yards through the air conceded. I raved about them last week and they responded with a commendable effort against Eli Manning, keeping him to 257 yards from 36 pass attempts. Picked him off twice… problem was they let him toss four TDs and that was the damage done right there.

Ooh look, 28-11-2 over the past three weeks. This prediction thing’s coming good after all, I like it. For comparison, they do the same tipping W/L comp over on CBS Sports (stupid website, but they’re full of picks so a useful resource – I hate sites with automatically playing pop up vids though, ESPN and Sports Illustrated are no better… except for the superior content). Anyway, eight paid pros and my 78 correct picks would sit tied-second amongst them.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 6

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Washington R**skins (4-3-1)

Yes, that’s on you Minny. Golden Tate’s shimmy and burn down the sideline for the overtime win was one thing but this one was let slip when the Vikings couldn’t hold that lead in regulation. Ah, what a bunch of bollocks. Matt Prater is the only man in the NFL who knows how to nail a field goal on the regular. He’s 23/23 on game tying/winning shots in the fourth quarter or overtime going back however the hell long that goes back.

Three losses in a row, this is a precarious place for the Vikings to be. They were so good going into their bye week and now they’re like a shell of that. It sounds like they got a little comfortable in themselves and with Sam Bradford at QB and nothing much at RB they don’t have the biggest margin of error, despite a sublime defence.

Mike Zimmer: "Now, we made some crucial mistakes in the game. We had three red zone penalties and a sack. We had, obviously, a missed extra point, we had a field goal blocked that turned into three for them, so that was a six-point swing. And then I messed up the last 27 seconds of the ballgame there. We also had 11 missed tackles and four penalties on defense. I feel like we’re moving in the right direction, and I’m actually excited to continue to see this team play."

Yeah okay then son. Keep the chin up and we’ll give ya the benefit. I mean, they’re playing the R**skins and you wonder how this massive group of disillusioned voters were so willing to overlook racial and social prejudice with their votes, well remember that there’s an NFL team named after a derogatory word for the indigenous people of the land.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 3

Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 6

Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

Jameis Winston: “Confidence-wise, it's easy, because I'm not a loser. We're winners in this building. And I believe it's a choice. It's a mentality that we've gotta have and we're building. We're heading on the right path. We just gotta get over the hump, and I'm going to do what I need to do to help us get over there.”

Jameis – Not a loser, apparently. A 26-1 record in college backs that up though he’s 9-15 in the pros so make of that what you will. Personally, I make of that that he plays for the Buccaneers. Winston will be a really good player when he cuts the interceptions, though that might not ever happen since the risk factor is a big part of how he plays.

The Bears have lost all four on the road, the Buccs have lost all four at home. One way or another, one way or another, one way or another… this darkness got to give.

Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 9

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)

Hey now that’s three wins in a row for the Dolphins. Here’s the non-coincidental streak that explains it all:

Jay Ajayi in weeks 1-5: 31 rush attempts for 117 yards with 2 TD at 3.77 y/a

Jay Ajayi in weeks 6-9: 78 rush attempts for 529 yards with 4 TD at 6.78 y/a

It’s that yards per attempt that really gets the eyes bulging. The attempts themselves come with the territory when your production is coming like that. The guy is fresh on the scene in his second season in the NFL, having been a fifth round pick in 2015. Ooh and he was born in London, though he’s been an American since the age of 7 (Nigerian parents, by the way). He only bagged a hundy or so last week but he rushed for over 200 yards in the previous two, something only OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams have ever done before. OJ did it twice. Now there’s a cavalcade of personalities to be lumped in with.

There’s no rhyme or reason to picking the Chargers, always a gamble. Particularly in San Diego where the city voted not to fund the $1.8b new stadium they wanted which effectively means they’re being kicked out of the city and that has some ramifications. The Chargers always wanted to leave but a sexy new ground would have changed that. Instead they have the option to pick up a stadium-share thingamajig with the LA Rams, which screws over the Raiders. Sort of.

See the Raiders also wanted to move to LA, given their attempts to build a new stadium in Oakland’s been next to a complete failure. Los Angeles won’t want three teams though, nobody can afford that. So if the Chargers decide to move to LA then the Raiders are left with one viable option: Las Vegas. It could happen, we’ll find out over the next 12 months. These things move very slowly.

Good on you, lad. We need more of that.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 4

San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

This is an easy one. There’s nothing gonna convince me to take the Niners on the road in any game this season. Nothing at all.

Hey Colin Kaepernick looked sharp against the Saints though, didn’t he? Early on for sure, he ended up with 398 yards with 2 TDs and a pick which didn’t earn the win but it will have earned him the starting role for a few more weeks. He’s still not that good, though he’s better than Blaine Gabbert, which is the important thing.

Say, Colin. After all that righteous protesting, who did you vote for in the end?

Ah for Christ’s sake, Kap. You don’t get to be a civil rights activist by sitting on the fence. It’s sitting on the fence that allows dumb things to happen, that’s silent acquiescence. The lesser of two evils is still less evil, man.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 10

Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

The Steelers lost last week because their supreme offence suddenly couldn’t work a down against the Ravens. They didn’t lose because of a shambolic last chance on-side kick with under a minute left in the game. Chris Boswell was not the reason they lost.

… but it was still pretty damn funny!

To be fair to the guy, you can see what he’s trying to do and he actually made it work back in college too. Now this is what’s up right here. Imagine the virality if this sucker had come true!

The Cowboys have won seven in a row now. The Steelers should be like 6-2 but somehow keep losing silly games. God, Big Ben was horrific in that game last week right up until he had no more choice. The Ravens played it well, they targeted Le’Veon Bell (32 yards rushing) and Antonio Brown (85 yards receiving with a TD but most of those came late), then they asked Roethlisberger to win the game with the rest of his offence, coming back early from injury as he was. It worked and the Ravens looked as good as they have all season while the Steelers looked… quite bad.

Dallas doesn’t have those kinds of playmakers on defence. There’s no Terrell Suggs, etc. That means that particular strategy is way less likely to be worth much however the Lone Stars do have this thing they do well where they run the ball so much you barely touch the ball. Yeah, that’s been working for them. Le’Veon Bell vs Ezekiel Elliott will be fantastic. The big play offence for Pittsburgh is something they’ve had success with in the past and it’ll need to be on a dime here. Which it very well might be – this Cowboys defence is not good enough to go a whole season without ever getting touched up.

Here’s one: The Cowboys are 7/7 on fourth downs in 2016.

I don’t expect Romo to play this week, despite apparently training the house down, though if Dak struggles I think they’ll figure that Romo at least deserves a chance. They’ll fake an injury for him to save maximum dramas if they have to swap him back out down the line.

This is a toss of a coin for me. I’ll give the Cowboys the benefit if only coz I want it. Also, not sure that Big Ben’s anywhere near 100% yet, which matters.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 1

Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at New England Patriots (7-1)

Read these words and tell me they weren’t written by a typically misleading Donald Trump:

“Congratulations on a tremendous campaign. You have dealt with an unbelievable slanted and negative media and have come out beautifully. You have proven to be the ultimate competitor fighter. Your leadership is amazing. I have always had tremendous respect for you for the toughness and perseverance you have displayed over the past year is remarkable. Hopefully tomorrow’s election, the results will give the opportunity to make America great again. Best wishes for great results tomorrow, Bill Belichick.”

Hell, not only does he say ‘tremendous’ twice but there are errors in grammar and everything. Probably errors in spelling if it weren’t read aloud too. From a notoriously frigid public communicator in Belichick, who just traded away a dude in Jamie Collins who has been something of a difficult team chemistry guy, this seems highly out of character. Except…

Yuck.

Yuck yuck yuck yuck yuck.

Good thing I already disliked the Pats, like most of the rest of you, so it’s hardly gonna make a difference. And I still don’t think those are his words, even if they might be reflective of him. Also there’s no point in which he actually endorses him, so that’ll be helpful when it comes to defending himself in the media, as he did when he said that a publicised message to a presidential candidate on the eve of an election was not political. Come on, man.

Now for something completely different…

The Shermanator also drew heat when he slammed into Dan Carpenter, the Bills kicker, that game. a wildly late hit that didn’t get a roughing the passer call because Sherman had already been flagged offside. Then there was a weird situation in which Carpenter had to leave the ground to be assessed for an injury so he couldn’t come back in next play to retake the kick. So Rex Ryan called for a spike of the football and Carp could return. He missed the kick. The Bills went on to lose.

Oh but Danny Carpo’s wife didn’t take to the hit too kindly.

That instrument? Yeah that’s what they use to castrate animals with. Yikes.

You don’t need me to tell you that this is a huge game. Not so much because there’s anything drastic on the line because each is already ahead of the win curve, more that it’s always a big one when top teams meet. Especially these two because, you know…

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 6

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3)

People aren’t really saying it but both Andy Dalton and Eli Manning are having very good seasons.

Dalton: 67% CMP | 2349 YDS | 9 TD | 3 INT | 98.0 RATE

Manning: 64% CMP | 2241 YDS | 12 TD | 8 INT | 88.4 RATE

Each are let down by the lack of touchdowns though, with Eli also suffering for a few too many picks and Dalton suffering for a lack of wins. Eli has four game winning drives. It’s that lack of dependency, not so much in this pair but in their teams around then, which is why this game is a tough one to pick. Normally I like the home team on the Monday night games, though I also prefer Cincy on paper. I’ll go with the Bengals, but only coz I heard some idiot talking head say he still thinks they can win the NFC East. Bro, get out.

There is no more fitting song to play us out this week. When democracy looks shaky and the President’s a muppet, put your faith in the monarchy of King Kendrick:

Wildcard’s Pick: Prediction

BYE: Buffalo Bills (4-5), Detroit Lions (5-4), Indianapolis Colts (4-5), Oakland Raiders (7-2)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. If he were elected president, the first thing he’d do would be to resign. Who the hell wants that gig anyway?

Info
Written by Nick Robinson On Tagged ,