The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 7
Last Week: 8-7
Season: 50-42
Chicago Bears (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
I watched the Packers with my own eyes last week, I saw what happened and none of it was shocking. Dallas has a magnificently functional offensive machine (hey how come nobody moans about Jason Garrett anymore? Maybe there’s some sense to that whole ‘give them some time to grow’ thing after all) and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been himself for a while now. Still, to see the Packers comfortably beaten at Lambeau Field… it was more than I was willing to allow myself to believe going in.
See, this is shaping as a pretty weird NFL season. The Packers are about to win their fourth game but they don’t look all that good. Not compared to the level we’re used to from Mike McCarthy’s men. And this isn’t a Drew Brees/Andrew Luck situation where the star QB is immune from criticism either because Rodgers threw some howling passes against Dallas. And, sure, the scoreboard was against him and all that but that wasn’t Deion Sanders in the Dallas secondary. That Cowboys D really isn’t all that good – just brilliantly managed by Rod Marinelli. Rodgers of old would have torched them.
But then there’s the Carolina Panthers, fresh from the Super Bowl and currently on their bye week with a 1-5 record. That team won their first 14 last season. Remember how good that defensive unit was there and now think that they couldn’t win a game against the Saints in which they scored 38 points. Ridiculous. The Arizona Cardinals have been scrapping just to get to .500 at this stage and so have the Cincinnati Bengals except that they didn’t make it (tough schedule, to be fair – I’ll come back to this). At least the Seattle Seahawks are still winning while they struggle and at least it’s at least partly down to a Russell Wilson injury there. The R**skins start 0-2 and are now 4-2, the Eagles start 3-0 and are now 3-2. The Bills were 0-2 and are now 4-2. The Vikings are the best team out there. The Cowboys are a top tier team. I love it all but it’s shattering my faith in the balance between order and chaos.
Keep an eye on how this works:
As for why Aaron Rodgers is struggling, he doesn’t look as mobile as he once was which is one thing. Then there’s the sloppiness of Eddie Lacy and the lack of weapons for his to utilise in that offence. Normal stuff, they definitely need to think about drafting a wide receiver (though that defence is pretty good when they aren’t guarding Zeke Elliott). I think he could do for taking a step back and stop trying to make those miracle passes he used to since that ain’t happening right now. Bring back the Hollywood balls when the basics are shining through already, rather than instead of.
As for how he deals with a loss like that though…
Aaron Rodgers: "Have a glass of scotch and chill out a little bit [and] watch the film"
What a beautiful man. Aaron Rodgers and Will Ferrell. Beautiful men. Much more so than Brian Hoyer who looks like Nosferatu.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 10
New York Giants (3-3) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Eli Manning: “You can get real sick of it if he does out there and is not making plays."
Hmm, interesting. The whole celebrating with the kicking net thing was funny the first time. It’s not funny anymore, that’s one of those silly antics you should probably retire after the first pointed attempt. Like, Odell Beckham Jr should be pretty happy being the dude known for that insane catch that time and for his blonde tips. Both significantly better than being known as the guy who plans on marrying a kicking net. All the stars like to have a thing that they can say is their trademark but this isn’t like Cam Newton dabbing or Aaron Rodgers with the championship belt. Or even Peyton Manning’s “nationwide is on your side” jingle. But proposing to a kicking net is straight up stupid.
So a good thing for OBJ that he absolutely scathed the Ravens last week. 222 receiving yards with 147 of them coming after the catch and two touchdowns in there for good luck, including the winner on a fourth & one play that he took to the bank for 66 yards. After the early troubles, this was a match defining performance and you can’t ask for much more from your ‘superstar’ – which is another word that Eli used to describe OBJ.
Okay, okay, okay. Now somebody has to explain to me how Case Keenum managed to complete 19 consecutive passes against the Lions last week. That makes no sense. That’s something Tom Brady should be doing. Or Russell Wilson (if he gets some blocking). Not Case Keenum. I mean, he still reverted back right at the end when he threw a match clinching interception but those numbers shock me even still. 27 of 32 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns with a running TD as well. Huh.
But yeah, I’d imagine the Giants come out the better team here. This one’s in London again, so that’s gotta be a trip for Odell Beckham, not even being the most famous person of his name in town.
This one isn’t at Wembley though. Nope, it’s at Twickenham, the home of English rugby. 15 games in 10 years at Wembley, this is the first London game played outside those confines. It’s not an ideal fit, however. The Rams are having to use the stadium gym as a changing room and the Giants a reception hall because the existing dressing rooms are too small for 53 man rosters. Similarly, the capacity has been reduced from 82k to 75k because the closest seats to the ground are worthless as they’re obscured by all the coaches and subs on the sideline.
Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 4
New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)
Bless them Saints, aye? Amidst it all at least you know they’ll put some points on, they always do. 41 of them on the Panthers was a lot to anticipate but they almost did it last year too, if you happen to recall. In fact this was the second time in a row that a Panthers-Saints game has ended 41-38, which is a completely wild thing to happen. Though last time it was the Panthers that won. This time the Saints.
Should I carry on talking about the Panthers here?
Very well then.
The Chiefs have one of the better secondaries in the NFL, up amongst the top few in passing yardage conceded and leading the lot in interceptions. They’re not too shabby against the run either but the Saints don’t got time for that so no worries. Point being they’re not a team that are going to get leaky and they punish mistakes.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 8
Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
Something about a bye week for the Vikes and a couple losses for the Eagles has taken the sting out of this one slightly, given it looked like potentially the game of the year so far a week ago. But don’t sleep, bro, this one is still a fascinator.
Between the two starting quarterbacks here they’ve thrown one interception. Just the one. And this isn’t Tom Brady vs Russell Wilson here – this is Sam Bradford against rookie Carson Wentz. Oh and don’t think for a second that either of the two sides have forgotten that Sam Bradford was an Eagles last year, right up until he tried to force his way into a trade as Wentz popped up and stole his job. Yeah, there are some personal differences here to air out.
Both of them specialise in takeaways yet nether turns the ball over themselves. That’s a solid strategy. It also adds some real heat to the game because this isn’t a dominant offence against a dominant defence – it’s hard to believe from the Eagles but this could be a real defensive tussle. Only the Seahawks have given up fewer yards than Minny but they’ve conceded an extra 15 points on defence. Philly are third in both of those areas. The Eagles aren’t quite as suffocating but they do a good job of keeping their offence on the field for long drives – which flows on into the fewest defensive snaps of any team. If you ask me (and by reading this now you tacitly have) then I’m gonna say the difference will be the Vikings pass rush. 19 sacks in five games, the Eagles aren’t too shabby themselves there but the Vikings are crushing people. No matter how good the passer rating, chuck a rookie under that pressure, supposing they can, and that ain’t a recipe for success.
Man but how about these Vikings? Who tipped them as the last remaining undefeated team? Last year there were five 6-0 teams, which was an NFL record. This season there are only four teams with one loss or fewer. It’s a strange old sport, this one.
But it’s even more impressive when you consider that the Vikings are doing this without Adrian Peterson – in fact they’re a way better team now that he’s out. But he isn’t the only absentee. Of course Teddy Bridgewater is done for the season (and with an injury that I don’t wanna be too frightening here but could be career-threatening – he’ll play again but will he ever be the same?). not to mention tackle Matt Kalil, who hadn’t missed a start in his first four seasons, is now out for all of 2016, DT Sharriff Floyd who is out for the season and even Steffon Diggs who missed the last game and probably won’t be ready for this one. No doubt about it, Mike Zimmer is the faraway frontrunner for Coach of the Year.
Then again, Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t completely been away. Fox Sports have been using a pic of his body with Sam Bradford badly photoshopped onto it all this time. What a pack of lazy bastards.
And the Vikings called them out for it too, haha.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 5
Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)
Oh Lordy. When you think the week is done for, heading for a losing round for the first time this season with the ol’ picks and the Colts leading the Texans 23-9 midway through the fourth quarter with Houston looking like doing bugger all and then somehow… I don’t know I can even describe what happened next. It was like the sky opened up and a shining light came down upon my week six predictions.
I can’t describe it. Not how the Texans suddenly were able to score points and scored enough to come back from 14 down in the fourth quarter to win it in overtime and not how the Colts themselves managed to lose it from there. But I know someone who can describe it…
That’s a killer loss. That’s the kind of loss that haunts an entire season – they were that close to edging their biggest division rival and now there’s a long, long way back from here. I’m gonna assume this is a monster wake-up call for a team that probably isn’t any better than 9-7 at their best and at their worst I could even see them dropping to, like, 5-11. Against the Titans there’s a serious worry about how they’ll defend DeMarco Murray but I’ll be optimistic and say that in the short term if nothing else they’ll be fired up this time around. Erik Welden can’t afford the dry-cleaning otherwise.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 3
Buffalo Bills (4-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Two teams who might have saved their seasons with their run games, lucky for the Bills they got in there a few weeks sooner. And, you know, are also better. Four wins in a row, starting with Ws over the Cards and Pats, they demolished the 49ers in week six but after this game things get really tough again – home vs New England, away to Seattle, away to Cincinnati. Sneak one of those and win this and a 6-4 record puts them in a place to push on towards the playoffs, maybe. Shady McCoy had three TDs last week. That’s fantasy gold, son.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 6
Washington R**skins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)
I guess losing those first two games to the Steelers and Cowboys doesn’t look so bad now for Washington. They might actually be kinda decent after all. Although… nah. Kirk Cousins. Holes in the defence. That ain’t enough to sell a win on the road. Having said that, they did finally find a running game against Philly, one of the best defences against the run out there and they put 230 rush yards on them with a touchdown. Matt Jones was the star with 135 of them, though it was a team effort – split between a three-man backfield. If they could do that again then I might believe it was more than a fluke. There are too many one-offs in this league to fall for every one of them and I quite like the Lions, to be honest.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 6
Cleveland Browns (0-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Say, this is about what the Bengals need right now. Like a cool refreshing glass of water after a gruelling run. Like that sweet sensation of dumping your ass on the couch after a long day at work. Like playing the Cleveland Browns at home after losing four of your first six games… wait, that’s exactly what this is.
Lucky for Cincy, they have a quarterback playing very well and a defence that mostly does the trick although perhaps a word of advice to Vontaze Burfict wouldn’t go astray. They’re a better unit when he’s not suspended. Their four losses have come against the Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys and Patriots. All four should be in the playoffs this season. But despite that they’re still only two games back on Pittsburgh who are without Roethlisberger for at least this coming week and if they can win at home against Washington as well as this game then they hit their bye week at 4-4. The Ravens are 3-3 and they play each other twice so no reason to fear there (especially with the big plays that BAL gave up against the Giants, Jeezus). Then the back end of Cincy’s schedule reads: NYG (A), BUF, BAL (A), PHI, CLE (A), PIT, HOU (A), BAL. Those NFC East games will be tough, as will Pittsburgh and Houston (on the road). They can very realistically get to 9-7 from here and if they can squeeze another win from that then the playoffs should be there waiting. Not saying they will or that another playoff defeat would be worth the struggle but you might as well target something.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 14
Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)
Career Stats:
Derek Carr: 36th overall pick in 2014
- 13 Wins (38 Starts) – 60.7% COMP / 8865 YDS / 65 TD / 28 INT / 86.2 RATE / 7 GWD
Blake Bortles: 2nd overall pick in 2014
- 10 Wins (34 Starts) – 59.1% COMP / 8657 YDS / 54 TD / 42 INT / 80.0 RATE / 6 GWD
Not as far apart as you’d think, though Carr is crushing Bort in 2016 for sure. I laughed this week when I had it pointed out to me that teams passed on Carr in the draft because of his lack of height and his small hands. And every team passed on him – he went in the second round. The Browns were close to him but the hands were a turnoff, hilariously. Guys, we need to get over this bias over small hands. Donald Trump’s hands couldn’t even arm wrestle an oompa loompa and there he is running for president (his fake tan lives up to the oompa loompa vide though).
As for Bort… haha, Bort. Someone buy that man a license plate.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 7
Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5)
PEOPLE: Dammit, Fitzpatrick! Another interception? This is trash, put that idiot on the bench. Get Geno Smith in there already, we miss Geno. Why did we ever drop Geno?
PEOPLE: Oh yeah… that’s right.
Funny for the Ravens, they’ll be playing in the same stadium that they last week cocked up against the Giants. The scene of the crime, aye? Can’t be much fun, and something tells me that the Jets are much better than they’ve shown. I mean, with all those turnovers they haven’t hardly given themselves a chance. I can see them winning this one, though I’m wary of the rumours that Geno Smith might be starting…
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3
San Diego Chargers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
Well good on you, Mr Rivers. The Chargers threatened to throw that one away against the Broncos like they’d done pretty much every other game this season but nah they held on and it was pleasant for all. Even Broncos fans can only laugh so much at the Chargers Choking. The thing is, based on them stats I rolled out last week they’re more likely to be 5-0 than they were 1-4, based on win percentages and dumb stuff like that, so it ain’t a shock that they had a big win in them. The Broncos are pretty handcuffed if you can get some points on them. Not exactly a team that can gun it in a shootout given Trevor Siemian at maybe 80% was still better than their rookie backup (for now).
Would it shock you to learn that Philip Rivers has taken 13 more snaps in the red zone than any other QB this season? He’s not exactly passing the lights out with 21/45 completion but he also hasn’t been picked there, with 7 RZ touchdown passes. The best quarterback in the red zone so far has actually been Drew Brees, who is 20/26 with 9 TD and 1 INT within the oppo 20 yard line.
If the refs had made that pass interference call, the Falcons surely would have won in Seattle. That they came out after the half-time break and turned it on offensively is the sign to me of a well-coached team, which hasn’t often been a thing you can say about the Falcons, and sure Michael Bennett’s injury had something to do with that. Kam Chancellor’s too. But the Falcons pushed the Seahawks all the way and were unlucky not to claim that one. They’re legit, man. Really good to watch.
Rivers vs Ryan is a masterful clash for the witnessing. That’s a belter. All those horrible losses on the road though, that still makes it hard to pick San Diego in any road game and certainly not against the Falcons.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
The Buccaneers are better than people seem to realise and the 49ers are possibly the second-worst team in the NFL. It’s a long travel for the Buccs but they’re also coming off the bye so I’ll suggest that cancels it out. Vincent Jackson is on IR but he hasn’t been the same for a year or two. Nothing more to say here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 10
New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Do you realise that in the two games Tom Brady has played since he returned, he already has nearly 800 passing yards, with 6 TDs and 0 INTs? Yeah, we’ve all heard how well he’s played but here’s some context:
- Tom Brady: 2 starts, 782 pass yards.
- Cody Kessler: 4 starts, 865 pass yards
- Sam Bradford: 4 starts, 990 pass yards
- Trevor Siemian: 5 starts, 1054 pass yards
- Tyrod Taylor: 6 starts, 1076 pass yards
Give him one more game and he’ll could even pass all those guys in and around him there. Because of his lack of games so far, he’s not a qualified stat leader but if he were then he’d be way up there. Like, first place. In pretty much everything. Multiply these two games by three and that’s 2346 yards with 18 TDs. Currently the leaders reach as such:
- Matt Ryan: 2075 pass yards
- Eli Manning: 1788 pass yards
- Andy Dalton: 1757 pass yards
- Ben Roethlisberger: 16 TD passes
- Matt Ryan: 15 TD passes
- Drew Brees/Matt Stafford: 14 TD passes
Big Ben and Matty Ice are throwing TDs on 7.1% of their passes. Matt Ryan also has a large lead with 9.9 yards per attempted pass and 14.5 per completion. Plus his QB rating of 117.9. Sam Bradford is completing 70.4% of his passes. Tom Brady, meanwhile, has an 8.0% TD rate, is bagging 10.4 Y/A and 13.7 Y/C (okay Matty, you got him there) plus a QB rating of 125.5 and a completion rate of 76%. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why they invented the concept of ‘sample size’. But yeah, Brady is bloody killing it.
And then there’s this…
This game could have been a thriller between two very impressive offences but Landry Jones having to fill in for Ben Roethlisberger ruins that. And to be honest I’m not convinced that the Steelers can win a game through their defence so this one might be one of those capitulations that the Steelers seem to have every now and then. Like last week, because just quietly they weren’t doing all that flash even before Big Ben got hurt.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
This is a rivalry alright. The two best teams in the NFC over the last few seasons, though it hasn’t broken for the Cardinals in the playoffs like it has for the Seahawks. Back in 2012 the Seahawks went to Arizona and won 58-0. But then in 2013 and 2015 the Cardinals went and beat Seattle at home, something that only three other teams can say they’ve done since Russell Wilson took over and the Legion of Boom emerged (so, start of 2012). They are 30-5 at home since then, the Cardinals the only team to have beaten them at home in that stretch more than once.
This one, though, this is in Arizona. The same site where they went in week 17 last season and thrashed the Cards 36-6. In fact Bruce Arians has never beaten the Seahawks at home.
A week ago it would have been tough to pick the Cardinals but their win over the Jets had plenty to like. Specifically, they found an exact balance running 35 times and throwing 35 times and what that did was it allowed David Johnson to run all over one of the best defensive lines in the game. Johnson is seriously talented. Since taking over as the starter mid-2015 he’s run for 1010 yards in 11 games at almost 5 yards per carry and with 12 touchdowns. He torched the 49ers too but they’re like a dragon’s dinner those guys, always being torched. Johnson’s already got the record of 21 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (though give Zeke some time). This guy is in that premier group of running backs and if you didn’t already realise that then this could be the occasion he proves it.
And with that I’m taking the Cardinals to claim it, only just. Question marks over Carson Palmer’s health and his downfield accuracy notwithstanding.
And, ah, shout out to Cliff Avril. Great dude.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 3
Houston Texans (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-2)
The Texans are coming to town and Brock Osweiler is in no mood to take prisoners.
REVENGE!!!
Umm, except that he’s Brock Osweiler and the Broncos know exactly what he’s like – I mean they let his go, right? And by the sounds of it that defence is pretty keen to have a look at him.
Still imagining a scene from Scarface… but maybe this one instead:
Playing us out this week, the finest southern rock band that ever existed, the Drive-By Truckers. And yes, I am aware of Lynyrd Skynyrd and I stand by what I said.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 14
BYE: Dallas Cowboys (5-1), Carolina Panthers (1-5)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He’s never had an affair with a kicking net before though there was this one thing with a lamppost one time.