Fat Sam & The Baby Faced Assassin (Reuters via metro.co.uk)

This is proving to be the most open Premier League season ever, but while most people are focussed on the sprint to the finish line at the top of the table, they’re missing out on the tightest scrap of all, the battle to avoid relegation. The stakes are higher than ever at the lower end, with a £3b TV rights deal having just come into effect. Relegation can destroy a club financially. And this year there are 11 teams all within 8 points of each other at the bottom all tussling to avoid that inglorious fate. The usual number of points that gets thrown around every year is 39 – that’s the average number of points for teams finishing 17th. With this many teams all taking points off each other, and with no team languishing too deep below the surface not to be able to come up for air, that number will be hard to reach. Let’s look a little closer at things:

Swansea

Pld: 26 Pts: 28 GD: -3

Why They’ll Go Down:

There seems to be a bit of turmoil afoot in Swansea considering the unexpected sacking of Martin Laudrup. Apparently they sacked him by email, too!
Only 3 clean sheets since the end of October is turning 3 points into 1 more often than should be the case.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

They dominate possession more than any other team in the league (yes, including the big boys) – 60.2% possession per game this season.
It’s only happened 9 times, but Swansea are unbeaten when scoring first in league games.
Swansea is a tough place to travel too, and even if they haven’t taken advantage of that enough, they’re showing signs of form with two consecutive home wins and clean sheets.
With all the teams beneath them, 8 points clear should be enough. Should be…

Wildcard’s Prediction: Swansea’ll be all good. 10th or 11th place.

West Ham

Pld: 26 Pts: 28 GD: -5

Why They’ll Go Down:

Very little depth. Basically just Andy Carroll in the striker’s corps and he’s usually injured. Goals are hard to come by.
They’re boring to watch.
As solid as they are defensively, they struggle against more creative players.
The Hammers have lost 4 games from winning position this season, more than anyone else.
It’s a tough run in, with 7 of their last 12 games against teams in European contention.
They’ve lost every game in which they’ve conceded first.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

The Hammers have hit form recently with 3 wins on the trot.
They have a very solid defence, especially with Winston Reid on his way back.
Fat Sam Allardyce is a seasoned campaigner when it comes to this stuff.
4 consecutive clean sheets. In fact they lead the entire EPL in clean sheets with 13.
Kevin Nolan is absolutely on fire at the moment. Get him in ya fantasy team!

Wildcard’s Prediction: She’ll be right, too, mate. Somewhere in the upper-lower half.

Aston Villa

Pld: 26 Pts: 28 GD: -9

Why They’ll Go Down:

They play City, United and Chelsea all in the month of March. If they don’t get some points off of Newcastle and Norwich first, they may just get caught on the slippery slope.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

Come on, this team has the talent. They’ll score enough goals through the likes of Christian Benteke and Gabby Agbonlahor to keep their heads above the surface. Won’t they?
They seem to be a very strong pack mentally, with only Chelsea and Man Utd recovering more points from losing positions in 2013/14.

Wildcard’s Prediction: If the goals flow, there won’t be a problem. Let’s say a comfortable 12th or 13th placed finish.

Hull

Pld: 26 Pts: 27 GD: -6

Why They’ll Go Down:

They aren’t scoring enough goals, just 3 in their past 6 games.
The squad lacks creative talent. Robbie Brady is their top scorer in the league – he has 3 goals.
They suck against set pieces.
When the opposition scores first, Hull have one once and lost 12 times.
They’ve only picked up 4 points since New Years.
They have the EPL’s worst record in the second half of games.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

You know they’ll keep fighting, especially with Steve Bruce at the helm. Brucey’s done this before many-a time.
They’re on a bit of a FA Cup run too, which should help the confidence (if it’s not too much of a distraction).
Shane Long and Nikica Jelavic were decent January signings.
The fixture list looks bright, with only 4 of their remaining 12 games against top 8 teams.

Wildcard’s Prediction: There’s a definite relegation possibility here. Bad form and some tough fixtures. They should juuuust escape though. 17th.

Stoke

Pld: 26 Pts: 27 GD: -14

Why They’ll Go Down:

Because let’s be honest, no one’s gonna miss them.
Unsurprisingly they have the worst disciplinary record of the 20 teams, with 57 yellow cards and 3 red cards. Suspensions will not help them down the stretch.
14 points dropped from winning positions is the tied worst in the EPL (with West Ham).

Why They’ll Stay Up:

If the league were based on home form alone, Stoke would sit 8th, ahead of the likes of Southampton and Newcastle.
Stoke are battlers. Tough to beat, and they’ll leave their mark embedded in many a shin-guard.

Wildcard’s Prediction: Stoke are gritty enough to pound out enough draws to hold on to 15th or 16th place.

Crystal Palace

Pld: 25 Pts: 26 GD: -16

Why They’ll Go Down:

Palace don’t seem to be able to score goals, with only 18 in 25 games. Don’t score, you don’t win.
They’re probably the sloppiest team in possession, with the worst passing success rate to back that up (71.3%).
Only 3 times have they scored 2 or more goals in a game.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

Of those three games scoring more than once, they’ve won all three.
Palace have looked better since Tony Pulis took over. Pulis is a clever operator, and made a habit of comfortable lower half finishes with Stoke.
Marouane Chamakh is decent, isn’t he? Just gotta start burying those goals a little more regularly.
8 wins against bottom half opposition is very handy moving forward too.

Wildcard’s Prediction: Sorry fellas, unless they start hitting the back of the net, CP are headed for unlucky number 18th.

Norwich

Pld: 26 Pts: 25 GD: -20

Why They’ll Go Down:

Considering they splashed the cash on strikers in the summer, scoring just 19 league goals so far is nothing short of pathetic.
One measly win in their last 12 EPL games.
Only the two Welsh teams, coincidentally, have worse first half records than Norwich.
Their final four games are, in order: Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. Put simply, if they don’t start winning games soon, they’re doomed.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

They’ve somehow managed 18 points in games where they’ve scored under 2 goals. They can win the tight ones.
When tied at half time, they’ve only lost 3 of 12 games.

Wildcard’s Prediction: I don’t think they can turn things around in time, sadly. I’d be quite surprised if they gather even another 10 points. But feel free to prove me wrong. 19th.

West Brom

Pld: 26 Pts: 24 GD: -8

Why They’ll Go Down:

They’re one of just 3 teams with only a single away win to their account this season.
It’s now 6 games without a win for the Baggies.
17 times out of 26 they’ve let the opposition score first. And they haven’t won a single one of those games.
Only 2 wins against bottom half teams from 11 does not bode well for those relegation six-pointers.
Just 4 wins all season.
They need a lot more from Nicolas Anelka than 2 goals in 12 league appearances.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

They always seem to, don’t they?
The Baggies have scored in 19 games, more than any other bottom half team.
They have held on for a league high 12 draws, so things could be worse (no other team has more than 9).
6 times they’ve come from half time deficits to draw.
West Brom has a generous next month or so of fixtures, so they could move rapidly out of danger if they capitalise.

Wildcard’s Prediction: The plucky Baggies oughta squeak through for another season in the big time. Mid-lower table.

Sunderland

Pld: 25 Pts: 24 GD: -13

Why They’ll Go Down:

They were bottom at Christmas, and you know what that means…
They have the fewest point earned against bottom half opposition (and those are the guys they need to be taking points off at this time of the season).
Crystal Palace are the only team with fewer second half goals.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

They seem to be able to score goals, especially with Adam Johnson finding form.
Sunderland ranked sixth on the table in January, things seem to be improving quickly.
They smashed Newcastle 3-0. If you can do that to your biggest rivals, you should be sweet.
Gus Poyet has given this team a real boost since taking over as manager (after a little bit of a grace period anyway).

Wildcard’s Prediction: Eh, 15th or so. Sunderland have turned a corner.

Cardiff

Pld: 25 Pts: 22 GD: -25

Why They’ll Go Down:

They’re averaging the fewest total shots in the EPL (just 10.5 per game).
They’ve only scored first in 5 games this season. And when they concede first they’ve drawn once and lost 13 times.
They’ve been kept scoreless in 14 of their 26 games.
Just once have they led at half time, and they went on to draw (vs Sunderland).
Their owner is a nutcase, real life Mr Burns.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer brought a lot of young talent in with his when he took over the managerial reigns.
They’re a tough team to travel to. A different country in fact...
Only 5 points dropped from winning positions (this could be misleading given how rarely they find themselves thus situated).
And, umm… to be honest I don’t think they will stay up.

Wildcard’s Prediction: Last place. Sorry.

Fulham

Pld: 26 Pts: 22 GD: -32

Why They’ll Go Down:

Fulham have a bit of ground to catch up.
They don’t seem capable of winning games, not even at home where they have the worst record in the EPL.
Only 1 point picked up in the past 6 games, with 16 goals conceded in that time.
The Cottagers have conceded at least 2 goals in 18 of their 26 games.
Their 3 total clean sheets is a league worst.

Why They’ll Stay Up:

The signs are improving.
The new manager might just spark something.
In those 8 games where they’ve kept the opposition to 0-1 goals, they’ve taken 19 of their 20 points. Sort the defence out and this team plays better. That 1 other point came away to Man United too.
The draw at Old Trafford will have done wonders for the confidence, and although they blew it in the end, they should have taken a point off of Liverpool too.
Plus there’s definite talent in this team, and in all areas of the park. Their depth is lacking, but the key guys are there, they just need to start performing.

Wildcard’s Prediction: It’s a long way to go, but Fulham are definitely on an upward curve. So long as they keep up recent performances, and start defending. 16th.