It’s enough to make grown men giddy with excitement. The biggest game of football in the world; it comes round just once every four years. The World Cup Final…

Doing justice to the occasion is hard enough. If this column can match the majesty and they hype of this game then we’re talking about the greatest sports literature of all time. Norman Mailer’s The Fight, Nick Hornby’s Fever Pitch, Rio Ferdinand’s twitter feed… and the Wildcard’s World Cup Final Preview. Big shoes. Luckily the game does justice to itself. Maybe not in the quality of the match, since these things are always so tactical and cagey, but definitely in its appeal. Nearly a billion people are expected to tune in at some stage of the game. For a few wonderful hours, the Maracanã Stadium in Rio will house 78,000 fans in a heaving dome of passion and cheering. Plus a few Brazilians no doubt, who bought their tickets months ago thinking that their own boys would be there for their coronation. Whoops.

Instead we have Germany vs Argentina. It’s a match-up that’s been seen twice before at this stage: In 1986 in Mexico, and then four years later, 1990 in Italy. The ’86 World Cup was Maradona’s stage to shine, and indeed it was he who, having been shut out of most of the game, put in the decisive pass for Jorge Burruchaga’s winning goal, Argentina taking the game 3-2. Germany (well, still West Germany back then) would have its revenge the next time around, as a late and controversial penalty (make your mind up below) gave them a 1-0 win.

Both were rough, untidy games. Neither team has won since. In fact Argentina hadn’t even made the semi-finals again since 1990 before now. Germany’s subsequently gone through a whole reunification thing, but this is hardly their first shot since that. They lost the 2002 final to Brazil, and have made the semis in the following three tournaments. What’s more, Germany has actually knocked Argentina out of the previous two World Cups. A 1-1 draw in 2006 saw Germany advance on penalties in a closely fought quarter final, while at the same stage in 2010, a double from Miroslav Klose helped the Germans to a classy 4-0 win. 6 previous World Cup clashes have seen the Germans win 3, with 2 draws and a sole Argentine win, though in all matches, it’s the South Americans who hold the advantage, with 9 wins from 20 meetings (with 6 going to Germany & 5 draws). This is arguably the biggest inter-continental rivalry in football, and the next chapter could be the biggest of them all.

The Road to the Final

The day Brazil wept... (FIFA World Cup) — The day Brazil wept... (FIFA World Cup)

For Germany the road to the final really started in 2006. Their squad that year heralded a new generation and a new philosophy. Coached by Jurgen Klinsmann, that side kept the same technical ability that the nation had always know, but added an incisive attacking edge and a boost in the pace at which they played. They were great to watch. In 2010 it was even more so. The transition between eras was complete, and now-established stars such as Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lamb were joined by, well, most of the current team. Arne Friedrich is the only member of the starting 11 that beat Argentina 4-0 that year not in the current squad. And since that time, the German Bundesliga has established itself as the third best national league in the world. Bayern Munich’s 2013 Champions League triumph over Dortmund confirmed that. The best part is the Bundesliga, while still attracting some immense international talent, remains built upon German players, thanks to the enormous focus the nation puts on coaching and youth development. Even before this World Cup, German players were being snapped in the transfer market at a rate usually reserved only for Brazilians or, more recently, Spaniards. It’s no coincidence that they’ve got to where they are now, potentially poised for glory.

Argentina however are built around a single player: Lionel Messi. Four time FIFA Ballon d’Or/World Player of the Year; 3 time top goal scorer in Europe; 6 time winner of La Liga, 3 time winner of the Champions League; Under-20 World Cup winner (2005) & Olympic Gold medallist (2008). Plus the forerunner for the Golden Ball at this very tournament. It’s hard to believe that only a month ago people still had doubts over Lionel Messi’s international contributions. Four Man of the Match awards in his first four games in Brazil sure put an end to that. While Germany have cultivated an entire squad of good players within an effective system, Argentina is very much Messi and supporting cast. That’s a disservice to the likes of Javier Mascherano and Ángel Di Mariá who’re stars in their own right, just not compared to Messi. Lil’ Lionel is the yin and the yang. The Simon and the Garfunkel. The eat here and the takeaway. He travels a road last traversed by Diego Maradona, and the only way he can break that comparison is, ironically, to emulate the great man and lead his nation to the top of the world.

Top Goal Scorers

Probable Line-Ups

Each team has just the one major injury worry, with Shkodan Mustafi definitely out for the Germans, and Angel Di Maria in serious doubt for Argentina. German defensive juggernaut and occasional goal scorer Mats Hummels has been struggling a bit with tendonitis in his knee throughout the tournament, and was subbed off at half time against Brazil (probably just precautionary, with the Germans already 5-0 up and everything…). Let’s be honest though, this is the World Cup Final – he’ll be playing. Di Maria’s a long shot to play, but given the occasion, they may try to risk him off the bench. Watching him limping towards his teammates in the celebrations after the semi, don’t put your house on it. He’s a major attacking option, and one of the few threats capable of drawing attention away from Lionel Messi. Argentina will feel his absence for sure.

If Di Maria is indeed out as expected, then his place will probably be taken by either Sergio Aguero or Enzo Perez. Perez played against the Dutch, and was decent if ineffective before being subbed off after 81 minutes. Aguero clearly offers more of an upside, but his form as been terrible so far, and his fitness is a major doubt since he hurt his groin against Nigeria. But he played off the bench vs Holland, and should feature here at some stage and in some capacity.

The Big Questions

How does Germany stop Lionel Messi?

Luckily the Dutch gave a pretty good example in this regard. Centre backs Ron Vlaar and Stefan De Vrij were in his face whenever he got the ball, with Nigel De Jong dropping back and boxing him in too. Trap him in the triangle and there’s nowhere he can go. Germany’s defenders don’t seem all that mobile, but neither were the Netherlands’. Vlaar plays for freakin’ Aston Villa. Schweinsteiger’s role as the deep midfielder will be tested, since he’s not that strong defensively, nor does he really seem to want to be. He’s a converted winger after all. De Jong only played half of the game though and Messi didn’t get into it all that much in his absence. It’s the defensive shield that is most important. Isolate him. Block him. Guide him away from goal. He loves the ball at his feet, Messi, but he hardly goes looking for it. He roams for the passes into him though won’t often track back and earn it, the way, say, Wayne Rooney will (an Englishmen mentioned in a World Cup Final preview? Ha!). So Germany should have the notion of overloading the midfield and cutting off the supply lines. The first part goes without saying for a team that has the luxury of Mario Götze and André Schürrle on the bench. The latter is up to Joachim Löw. There are few more astute men than him at this Cup. He’ll have something in mind.

However, to some degree, you have to allow that Lionel Messi will do something that you can’t control. He’s just too good. A great ball, a mazy run, a curling free kick. Something. You have to accept that you can’t silence him completely, nor in this modern day can you just hack him to bits as Diego Maradona had to deal with. Even if you tried he’d probably score the free kick.

Will Home-Continent Advantage Count?

It always has done in the past. No European team has ever won in South America, and only once has a South American team (Brazil 1958 in Sweden) done so in Europe. The issue is will it be the deciding factor, and given how the Germans routed the Brazilians, you’ve gotta think not. Argentina have the luxury of knowing the conditions without the same pressure from the adoring crowd. Then again, how much weight do you wanna ascribe to stats based on results over half a century ago? Back then there were no substitutes, keepers could pick up pass backs and, most importantly, players were almost all based in their home countries. Lionel Messi has been living in Spain since the age of around 12, and only three of their 23-man squad still play in Argentina and not in Europe (plus José Basanta, who plays in Mexico). Added to that these players are all full time professionals in an era where nutrition and well-being are more important than ever, with a month of conditioning under their belts, and it simply shouldn’t be an issue.

The Estadio Maracana, where the final will be held (AFP)

What Kind of Game Can We Expect?

Unfortunately, something closer to the NED-ARG game than the BRA-GER one. Each of these teams has shown that they have what it takes to win. At this stage however, the occasion takes over. I don’t think we’ll see penalties, but there’ll likely only be a handful of genuine chances. You know what, though? That’s what it’s all about. The Dutch-Argy semi got boring because both teams defended brilliantly. They played so well that they cancelled each other out. In a World Cup final, a player like Lionel Messi or Thomas Müller will know that they may only get a single chance to score. And that chance may be a speculative half volley, or a diving header, or a snapshot from the edge of the box. It may also be the chance that crowns your nation the champions of the world and yourself an immortal in the footballing annals. The game may be tense and conservative, but just keep in mind what they’re each playing for. The world, chico, and everything in it.

So Who’ll Win?

Yeah, yeah. I was getting to this. The thing is, about the stuff that, ultimately, you know… when it all comes down to it, and, umm… the best team on the day… credit to… commiserations… and, uh…

OK, look, I don’t know. I just don’t know! Germany are coming off the back of the most incredible semi-final win ever. They look sleek and slick and every bit deserving of competing here in this game. But so do Argentina! What they lack in sleeky slickness they make up for in occasional individual genius and a whole lot of grit. Each of these teams has learned how to grind out a win in their separate ways and that’s why they’re both still in this thing. It’s a football match will decide the winners, and the beauty of it is: despite the cavernous gulf between being World Champions and Runners Up, the margins for error are so minute. I’m giving a slight edge to Germany since they’ve got a few more backup options if things aren’t going to plan. Until the final whistle blows on Monday morning though, who can really say?

The World Cup Final: A Preview

The Road to the Final

Germany

Group Stage

Round of 16

Quarter Final

Semi Final

Argentina