It’s A Dutch Shootout
Super sub Tim Krul (Action Images)
Something strange happened over the weekend. Something strange, but a little bit genius too. A coach went out of his way to manipulate a penalty shootout in his favour. With time running out, in a game his team had completely dominated yet failed to score in, Netherlands manager Louis Van Gaal subbed off starting keeper Jasper Cillessen and brought on a designated penalty specialist in Tim Krul – last seen kitting up for Newcastle United. Fast forward 10 minutes and the Dutch are on their way to the World Cup semi-finals.
Penalties are always a daunting prospect. At once they're the ultimate test of nerve and skill, and a complete lottery.The first penalty shootout at the FIFA World Cup came in 1982 between West Germany and France. It’s been a fixture ever since, with two finals (1994 & 2006) being decided at the spot. In all that time, we’ve never really seen anyone master the tactics behind the shootout. Until now.
Costa Rica were clearly happy to play for penalties, having taken down Greece in the previous round in a spot kick clinic, while the Dutch went all out for the goal that would win it for them before it came to those stakes. Taking the Netherlands to penalties was a win for the Central American nation of under 5 million people, while for the Dutch it was already a failure given their domination throughout. Shootouts are such a mental battle, and the fortitude that it takes to win without the momentum of the game overflowing in your favour is beyond incredible. Basically you’re relying on them to choke. Costa Rica were on the up as the game finished. It was theirs to lose until Lucky Louis played the ace up his sleeve.
On comes Tim Krul as the final seconds expire. We’d seen him warming up but most would have assumed it was a ‘just in case’ thing. Jasper Cillessen certainly did. Nobody’s saving a sub though 120 minutes of gruelling football in the Amazonian heat, just to swap out keepers, right?
Come one, this is Louis Van Gaal we’re talking about! The Krul substitution was a stroke of brilliance. It changed the outcome of the game. Krul comes in as a guy who has specifically prepared for this eventuality. He’s watched and studied the Costa Ricans spot taking habits. It’s all he’s had to do. Forget about dealing with crosses or shot blocking - nothing but penalties. The task was laid out before him and he just had to do what he’d been priming for this whole time. On the other hand, the Costa Ricans had probably spent plenty of wasted time studying Cillessen and his penalty habits. Does he move early? Prefer to go left or right? Stand still before the kick or move around and wave his arms? It didn’t matter.
That substitution changed everything. It was a spanner in the works that messed with the Costa Ricans heads. It was the stem in the tides that picked up the Dutch players. Suddenly the Dutch felt like they were ready, like they had a plan, while the Costa Ricans were still playing the lottery. Think about it psychologically: Plans lead to accomplishments. Gambling leads to failure. Positivity and confidence leads to successful penalties, nerves and doubt lead to misses.
Plus, on the most base level, Krul is simply a better keeper against penalties.
"Every player in my squad has certain skills and qualities. They don't always overlap but all thought that Tim would be the most appropriate keeper to stop penalties because he has a long reach… So, we discussed all of this with Tim and we had him study Costa Rica's penalties [in their shootout victory over Greece]. You will have seen that he dived in the right direction time and time again. So, all of us are a little bit proud that this play has helped us through." - Louis Van Gaal.
Cillessen slaps hands with Krul and wishes him luck, he then walks over and kicks the team water bottles over. All that work and as the game comes to its decisive conclusion, he has to sit and watch as a fresh man steps up for the glory. Krul knew about this strategy - that was crucial through the whole build up. However equally crucial, and I didn't realise this at first, is that Cillessen knew nothing. I figured he was in on it initially, but obviously not, and both he and LVG have confirmed this. As the number 1, Cillessen had to feel like he was unbeatable. All keepers are a bit mental, and so much of the position is about confidence. To tell Cillessen that he’s their top guy, but that he’s still not trusted as much as his underlings at penalties would be too confusing. He had to be free of all doubt and disappointment during the game. Avoid all distraction. The downside is a minute of frustration for Jasper as he struggles to come to terms with being subbed in the heat of battle, something quickly eased by the Dutch goalkeeping coach’s explanations. Now one of the recurring images of the game is Cillessen leading the celebratory charge after Tim Krul saved the deciding penalty.
Costa Rica even had the advantage of taking the first kick, after they won the coin toss. Kicking first is a massive advantage. You’re stepping up to take the lead each time, as opposed to kicking just to keep the game alive. That’s huge for a kick taker. It feels like you have a lifeline instead of standing perilously above the abyss as you step back to kick. That advantage only lasts as long as you keep hitting the net, however, and when Tim Krul saved the second kick and the scales truly swung.
Krul dived the right way on every kick. I don’t know how he did it but he did it. He was massive, figuratively and literally, his tall frame blocking the net. He held his arms aloft, slamming the crossbar, making the goal shrink before Costa Rican eyes. He was all up in their faces, telling them that they’d miss, that he knew where they’d kick (a strategy he says worked against Frank Lampard too). It was pure intimidation, and it worked.
Meanwhile the Dutch organised their kickers from best to fifth best, and each stepped up and clinically scored. Often teams will save a kicker for the potentially crucial fifth kick, but that’s wasted if your early guys don’t score. Start with your best options first and work down, that’s the best way. Van Gaal and his staff had it all planned out.
By the time Michael Umana stepped up knowing that even if he scored, the next Dutch kick could knock them out, it was a foregone conclusion. 71% of penalty shootout kicks are scored at World Cups. That drops to 44% when kicking to avoid elimination. Krul dives left and saves.
Tim Krul (FIFA World Cup)
Make no mistake, this gamble could easily have backfired. Van Gaal says he knew before 90 minutes were up that this was the option he’d take if it looked like spot kicks were coming. That meant saving a sub while his team struggled with fatigue. Making subs for that the oncoming shootout isn’t uncommon, but it’s usually bringing on another kick taker that’s the done thing. Should they have lost, the coach would have taken enormous blame.
After 120 minutes of disappointment, he had to do something though. Van Gaal’s position here was helped by the fact that his second choice keeper was undeniably a better penalty saver (which is not a regular thing), and he just happened to have at least five great kick taking options already on the field and not a whole lot of trusted depth on the bench. And while Robin Van Persie seemed exhausted, you’re hardly gonna take off your best penalty taker at that time. It made perfect sense, but it was an option most wouldn’t even consider, it was so left-field. Louis Van Gaal has proved time and time again that he is not a man to be handcuffed to tradition. He has the cojones to make the difficult call that he feels is best and as they say, fortune favours the brave.
I can see teams trying to emulate this strategy, but to be honest, I’d be a little surprised if Van Gaal tries it again. Not without the surprise factor. Plus the teams he’ll face probably won’t give him the luxury of holding back a sub over 120 minutes, should that be the case. Interestingly, FIFA are apparently toying with the idea of a fourth sub for extra time, something that I think I’d welcome. After all, it wasn’t until 1965 that substitutes were first allowed in the English Leagues, and even then only for an injured player. If that’s the case, teams may just view that fourth sub as the ‘shootout sub’. Clearly this isn’t a problem for nations with elite keepers, as guys like that are gonna be the best option for 120 minutes and for spot kicks both. But for a team without that unwavering confidence, who maybe need some kind of boost to wrestle back the momentum (and do NOT discount the value of momentum heading into spot kicks!) and who happen to have the option sitting there on the bench, pulling a Van Gaal may become a regular thing. This could be the turning point in the way coaches view penalty shootouts. Yes, they’re still a lottery, but just like any lottery you’ve gotta play the best odds. Don’t just accept it as luck, embrace the tactics and the attitude and all the little things that can be the difference on the night. Louis Van Gaal treated it like a puzzle to be solved, and in taking control of a seemingly uncontrollable situation, he swung things in his team’s favour. His team responded.
“There’s a law in football that if you miss so many chances, the opponent beats you. But I saw the determination in my players to progress. They know exactly when they have to take responsibility and that's the key. It's not about me, or anyone else. It's about them.” – Louis Van Gaal
Where do they get that determination from, though? Their coach.
Tim Krul & Louis Van Gaal (Michael Steele)