The Welly Nix Title Quest: Still Battlin’ Away
The Concession
You know how politicians do that concession speech thing when the final results of an election aren’t in yet but it’s become obvious that they’ve lost so they say a few words to keep it all respectful? This isn’t quite that but a 1-1 draw with Brisbane Roar means that second place is probably Melbourne City’s now. They’re two points clear in that spot with two games remaining while the Nix only have next Thursday’s clash with Newcastle Jets remaining. Coming into the restart the Phoenix had that second place within their control, they could even afford to lose that game against Sydney first up (which they did). But only one win from five games coupled with Melly City beating Sydney FC (and looking rather decent in the process) means that dream has all but slipped away, it’s just mist and fog now.
That’s the bummer note to start on. The WNTQ has copped a big blow with... well it’s not so much this result as it is the culmination of all these results. Five points from five games is not what the doctor ordered, definitely not what it was gonna take to book that first round bye. At least the Nix can cop that it was their own selves that cost them – it still says something that they got into this position in the first place. Young team, first year with a new coach, major offseason squad upheaval. Also makes you wonder what might have been if they hadn’t lost those opening four games of the campaign and given the rest of the league a headstart. Plus it’s worth pointing out on the flipside that this draw does actually guarantee the Phoenix playoff football, which is the absolute minimum expectation but it’s still nice, still something to lean on.
The Nix will finish third if they win their final game... though not really sure that there’s much advantage to the various seedings when there’s no home advantage involved. Especially when there won’t be a New South Wales team in that 3-6 range. Third place would mean we won’t have to face Sydney FC until the grand final though, which is obviously preferable. Either way, barring a Melbourne City Meltdown Miracle, the Phoenix will now have to play three playoff games in the space of 7-8 days if they’re gonna win this thing – which would include a 3-4 day turnaround for the semi-finals against a team that will have been rested for at least a week.
Final Regular Season Game: Newcastle Jets vs Welly Nix, Thursday 13 August at 9.30pm
Elimination Finals: Saturday/Sunday 22/23 August TBD
Semi-Final: Wednesday 26 August TBD
Grand Final: Sunday 30 August TBD
Ah well, just gonna have to do it the hard way then, aye?
The Case Of The Missing Goals
For a good chunk of this game the Phoenix were below their usual standards. In fact it had a lot in common with the loss to Western Sydney last time, where things just weren’t quite clicking in the way that they usually do. Attacks were a bit too static, a bit too stale. The defence always looked a little vulnerable. They haven’t been winning much lately and even the game they did win they spent the last half hour on the back foot in full defensive mode and they have the feel of a team that’s too tight. The confidence has slipped as their grinding performances haven’t been rewarded with shiny old Ws. A big blowout win against Newcastle next up would do absolute wonders, get them peaking at the right time.
But the reason the Phoenix didn’t win this game wasn’t because they dipped their standards because they still did more than enough to beat the Roar. They lost because they couldn’t put the ball in the bloody net. It doesn’t help when the oppo keeper, Jamie Young in this case, has a blinder but the chances were there, no doubt about it. Within five minutes of conceding they’d strung together multiple golden opportunities to score. They just... didn’t.
To be fair this is nothing new from the lads. They’ve had this wastefulness about them all season. This is a team that has only scored three times in a game on three occasions and has never scored four. 38 goals from 25 games in total isn’t terrible but six of those goals did come from penalties. For whatever reason this is a team that has had to work harder than they should to score. Some examples from the latest game...
23 mins – Steven Taylor header at the back post tipped over by Young
44 mins – Gary Hooper side-footed lob which is tipped away, again, by Young
63 mins – Reno Piscopo has a shot from the left of the area palmed away by Young (with a very slight deflection)
66 mins – Switch of play from Rufer finds Cacace in space and his cross picked out Hooper who somehow pokes it wide from about six yards out at the back post
81 mins – Cacace heads onto the post from a Rufer lob over the top... Hooper puts it in on the follow up
90+2 mins – One-two between Sotirio and Hooper gives Sotirio and excellent chance to shoot but Sotirio takes too long to get his feet set and the shot’s skewed off target
Those are just the major highlights from the Mini Match package. Defs not bothered rewatching the whole game to prove a point, those six key chances are more than enough. Football is a sport of fine margins and if they’d scored more than one of those six chances then they’d have won. Just like they’d have won if Davila didn’t miss that penalty against Adelaide. Chuck those four dropped points onto their tally and second place would still be there for the taking. Goddammit.
The other side of this coin is that the Nix are pretty great defensively. Only 30 goals conceded in 25 games, they don’t keep a lot of clean sheets but they also don’t often concede more than one (only twice in the last 21 matches). Come playoff time it’s that ability to bend but not break which keeps you in games long enough to give your forwards a chance. League footy you’ve gotta get on the front foot, three points for a win and only one for a draw and all that. But knockout footy and it becomes a matter of survival which perhaps suits Uffie’s Nix a little more. Gotta hope they’re practising penalties.
Competition For Places
Tell you who made a huge difference when they came on and that’s Alex Rufer. He was excellent, playing a key role in the goal and moving the ball around nicely in that attacking third. His incisive passing, which he was showing off with box feet and at all ranges, has been a growing feature of his game over the last year and a half and he offers a directness from midfield that nobody else really has. Even if he doesn’t crack back into the starting team then that’s a hell of a weapon to be bringing off the bench for the last half hour of a playoff game, same way he was used here. Chuck him on to get the team playing more vertical and ensure the strikers are getting the ball at their feet.
But he did also make a strong case to start. Roof has played great ever since the restart while this Brisbane game was quite possibly the worst that Cam Devlin has played for the Nix. Dunno what it was, tired legs or just an off day, but Devlin didn’t have the same irrepressible energy as usual and he was probably the most culpable player in the goal we conceded (he was subbed very soon afterwards). One thing that seems clear with Uffie Talay is that he’ll ride with the hot hand. That’s how Devlin got that starting gig in the first place, it’s how Tim Payne won the right back role, it’s been the case with Sotirio, McCowatt, and Piscopo all at various times. Cam Devlin has points on the board and Alex Rufer does offer something pretty valuable off the bench though. One to ponder.
The Phoenix’s best player here was Te Atawhai Hudson-Wihongi. Lock it in, mate. TAHW started as the backup centreback in the absence of the suspended Luke DeVere and he was supreeeeeme. An utterly brilliant sliding block in the first half was the highlight play but he was out there all game tidying up after his boys like the mother of a flock of teenagers. Doing the laundry, washing the dishes, making the bed, mopping the floor. Even Steven Taylor needed bailing out once or twice (that time he slipped over, lol). Very happy to remind you right now that I’ve long been aboard the TAHW as CB idea and 187 minutes of very solid defensive football from him since lockdown are backing that up smoothly. Oh dude and he even took an attacking free kick! Talked off Uli Davila and everything... pity he shot it straight at the keeper but absolutely adore the confidence.
It’s easy to overreact to these things though. It’s one thing to say Rufer’s making a claim to start because he’s a known quantity as an A-League midfielder. Callan Elliot looked as comfortable at right back vs Brissie as he has yet in his career but it’s a short career and there were still plenty of defensive lapses where he was caught out of position or outmuscled or whatever. Did he play well? Yeah he was pretty decent. Is he suddenly in contention to be a starting fullback? Highly doubt it. Tim Payne inconveniently missed this game with a previously unannounced injury, bit of a mystery, but he’s clearly the best RB option at the club. Odd that Louis Fenton wasn’t even in the matchday squad against the Roar though. A handy rest? Nah he got his rest in the Adelaide game last week, only playing as a stoppage time sub. It seems that after a poor showing vs Western Sydney Louis Fenton has been served a warning.
Similarly Te Atawhai Hudson-Wihongi is not about to overtake Luke DeVere – even if he does address the concern of the crippling lack of pace at the back. However I dunno about you but I’ve already seen enough to be offering the fella a new contract for next season and perhaps beyond. Some of those off-contract dudes are going to come into stark focus soon for various reasons. It’s better than the last couple seasons, at least we’ve got a baseline of fourteen players on the books for next term (although nobody really thinks Libby Cacace will stay so probs thirteen) but TAHW and DeVere are both expiring. Callan Elliot is playing for a new deal. Callum McCowatt might have options overseas but the club will definitely wanna keep him if they can. Gary Hooper and Matti Steinmann as imports. Liam McGing and Walter Scott are coming to the end of their deals. And of course Sam Sutton is in contention to graduate to pro terms as well.
We also saw Reno Piscopo come in for Callum McCowatt here. Honestly, those two are interchangeable. They’re equally talented and equally likely to score and create for the team so can’t argue either way. Josh Sotirio might be the loser of that duel as he’s played the least of that trio since restart... yet has more season goals (4) than Reno and Callum combined (3). Piscopo and McCowatt have both played well enough to earn those minutes but it’s also fair to say that we need more finishing touch from each of them.
And then one we didn’t see... Zac Jones retained his backup goalie spot ahead of Oli Sail despite Sail being eligible for selection again after his suspension. Meaning neither Payne nor Sail were even in the squad having served their four-game suspensions. Different reasonings given but still... curious.
More Stuff
Most Mins Since Restart:
Stefan Marinovic – 450
Liberato Cacace – 450
Steven Taylor – 405
David Ball – 360
Matti Steinmann – 353
Reno Piscopo - 303
Gary Hooper – 272
Louis Fenton – 270
Ulises Davila - 255
Callum McCowatt - 249
The two goal scorers here, Scott McDonald and Gary Hooper, are both former Celtic strikers. How about that one? Hooper ended the game limping all over the park with the Nix having used all three substitution pockets (even though they still had two subs left). Looked like cramp, they gave him the magnesium spray at one point, which would make sense for a dude whose conditioning has been a work in progress at times. Strange that Uli Davila has been more carefully handled than Hooper, actually. Granted even on one leg Hoops still scored the equaliser and almost set up a winner.
Old mate Matt Ridenton nearly stole it at the end there, didn’t he? Great chance which was saved by Marinovic, not quite striking it with the power it needed. Or he could have lifted it into an unsaveable zone. Still, Ridenton has looked sharp for the Roar since he signed. Scored a very valuable goal in the win over Melbourne Victory the other day. Good to see. The Roar also had Max Crocombe and Jai Ingham on the bench.
Quick note on penalties again, as good as Big Stef may be as a shotstopper in regular play his penalty numbers aren’t great. He’s conceded all three he’s faced this A-League season and didn’t save any in the shootout defeat to the Brisbane Strikers in the FFA Cup. He did save 3 of 10 in his MLS career for the Vancouver Whitecaps though and of course there was that legendary (/notorious) OFC Nations Cup shootout win over Papua New Guinea back in the Anthony Hudson days.
As for the penalty takers, Uli Davila was 5/5 until he missed that late one against Adelaide a couple games back while Reno Piscopo is 1/1. David Ball did miss one in the FFA Cup game though, while he and McCowatt also missed in the shootout that day.
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