The Premmy Files – Men’s Premiership Grand Final Preview
There’s no more fitting way to see the New Zealand Football Premiership into the deep looming hereafter than with an Auckland City versus Team Wellington grand final. They are after all the two dominant forces of this competition. Have been for several years (it was ACFC vs Waitakere in the early days but those were the early days).
In seventeen seasons, this will be Auckland City’s twelfth grand final and Team Wellington’s eighth. City with seven wins and Team Welly with two... City also of course won an eighth title last season in which there was no GF. This will be the fifth time (all in the last eight years) that the two have met directly in the trophy game, plus they were the two top teams last time so chances are they woulda added another one had that season been able to reach a natural conclusion. One more tasty little element: this is a tiebreaker, with the previous head to head finals split two-apiece.
It’s pretty interesting to look at the starting teams in those four prior finals. We’re going back up to seven years there and so much has changed... but not everything. Emiliano Tade for one. The league’s all-time leading scorer timing his return from fitness perfectly for these playoffs and he’ll likely become the only dude to start all five of these match-ups. But fellas like Scott Basalaj, Justin Gulley, Cam Howieson, Albert Riera, and Andy Bevin all have plenty of experience in this fixture. Funky also to see some of the names who have played for both... as well as Auckland City’s current manager Jose Figueira who was in charge of Team Welly for the last couple of these fixtures:
Auckland City vs Team Wellington Grand Final XIs
Auckland City
Team Wellington
Previous Results:
2013-14: Auckland City 1-0 Team Wellington
2015-16: Team Wellington 4-2 Auckland City (aet)
2016-17: Team Wellington 2-1 Auckland City
2017-18: Auckland City 1-0 Team Wellington
2020-21: TBD
The starting teams for this final should be pretty easy to predict. Just a couple selections up in the air. Team Wellington might have Ben Mata back fit, though he’s no guarantee to start against the speedy ACFC front-line anyway what with Justin Gulley back in contention again (alongside Scott Midgley and Taylor Schrijvers). And there’s the matter of Zac Jones as well who will probably hold his spot after four largely impressive showings in goal – however Scott Basalaj is there as well should Scotty Hales prefer the more experienced hands (the suggestion is that he’ll stick with Jones on form).
Other than that it’s clear as day. Mario Barcia and Ollie Whyte in midfield. Jack-Henry Sinclair and Rory McKeown out wide. Andy Bevin. Sam Mason-Smith. Hamish Watson. Since Joao Moreira (another who’s played for both these clubs) was suspended following a week five red card, debatable though it may have been, SMS and Watto have started all ten games and combined for 22 goals in them. Watson has three hatties in that time, SMS has one. Four times, including the semi, they both scored in the same match.
That’s about as in-form as in-form strikers get but Auckland City can still rival them. Logan Rogerson, Dylan Manickum & Mohamed Awad have been immense with their movement and speed and interplay. Nine times they’ve all started together and while the first one didn’t go so well, a 1-0 loss to Canterbury, since then it’s been six wins and two draws including a heap of goals. Rogerson has 8 total goals, Manickum has 5, Awad has 4. Should have been plenty more too because as last week’s semi-final showed: ACFC do have a tendency to miss a lot of chances. But then they create so many that it tends not to matter. It’s not how many you miss, children, it’s how many you score that matters.
One slight issue however... Logan Rogerson won’t be playing. He’s got a professional deal lined up with an unnamed Europe club (would guess Sweden based on the timing but who knows) that he initially arranged to take up at the conclusion of the season but of course the season got extended by a week when that Hawke’s Bay vs Eastern Suburbs game was delayed due to the last lockdown. With his flight presumably already booked, that means Rog now has to miss the final. Auckland City are thus without their leading scorer... but that blow’s been softened and then some by Emiliano Tade’s return. Bit of a bummer because that Tade to Rogerson link was absolutely sizzling in the semi but so it goes. The only issue is whether Tade stays in that deeper playmaker role of if he steps up to centre-forward, sliding Manickum out to the left, and Yousif Al-Kalisy comes back in. Al-Kalisy was unlucky not to start the semi so he’d be the most deserving. But then again Figuiera might want the more direct option of Kayne Vincent in there for starters.
Other than that you can already pencil in Cam Brown in goal; a back four of Andrew Blake/Jordan Vale, Adam Mitchell, Brian Kaltack, Alfie Rogers; then Mario Ilich and Cam Howieson in the middle. City haven’t been as potent from the fullback areas as they were in recent years but that’s because they get their width from those speedy forwards now. A different dynamic. That CB pairing is the best in the league though, no doubt about that. Adam Mitchell is back at peak form after an inconsistent first half of the campaign and was imperious against Suburbs last week. And Brian Kaltack has been maybe the best player full stop in the whole comp.
Kaltack’s match-up with Hamish Watson will be fascinating... especially because there’s a bit of residual niggle there. First time these two teams met, Kaltack was sent off in the 21st minute for a shove on Watto, his second yellow. That was a crazy game at David Farrington Park where Logan Rogerson scored before and then immediately after the red card so City were up 2-0 but down to ten men with only a quarter of the game gone... second half goals for Moreira and Watson ended up earning a 2-2 draw that day yet gotta remember that Auckland City were pretty sloppy in those days. They’d lose to the Cantabs a week later to be sitting outside the top four with only 7 points after 5 games. Since then, however, they have not lost. Seven wins and three draws – two of those draws due to late equalisers conceded and the other down to a heavily rotated team. So perhaps not a game we can learn too much from that first AC vs TW clash.
The second time they met, at Kiwitea Street in week 11, it was a fairly comprehensive 3-1 win for the Navy Blues. With a very similar line-up to what we can expect here they scored three times in the second half (Manickum 50’, Howieson (P) 71’, Rogerson 72’) to run away with it despite Hamish Watson scoring from inside the centre circle in the 75th min. If that game’s an indication then it could be a toughie for the TeeDubs at North Harbour Stadium up in Auckland. However a couple notes from that game: it was Jack-Henry Sinclair’s return to the starting team after injury and it understandably took him a couple games before he got back to maximum sharpness, as he appears to have done after a brilliant showing in the semi-final. Also Ollie Whyte came off the bench in his first game back after a pro stint in Turkey. Whyte has been superb for them ever since. Combine those two factors with the continuing dominance of SMS & Watto and since then they’ve won 7-0 against Eastern Suburbs, 2-0 away to Canterbury, won 3-2 against Hamilton Wanderers, then beat the same oppo 4-1 in the semis. 16 goals in four games, all wins and all against very good teams.
Which leaves this game nicely poised, doesn’t it? A delicious serving of history and a sweet dollop of recent form. Already mentioned that the physical battle between ACFC’s defence and the TeeDubs attack will be one to watch. Also check where the wide players do their thing. City’s fullbacks not tending to get as far forward does keep them available to check the play of JHS in particular, who plays so far forward he’s basically a striker. McKeown is a different threat but a threat nonetheless with his inch-perfect crossing. He’s set up so many Hamish Watson goals this season.
The midfield is always an arm wrestle in any game. Some hugely skilled technicians there for both teams. Team Welly will most likely accept that Auckland City always dominate the possession stats which means that for them it’ll be more about maximising opportunities. Watson’s hold-up play. Pace out wide. That kinda thing. Andy Bevin’s creative mastery mirrors nicely with Mohamed Awad on the other side. Both are supreme link-up players, although Awad playing off the wing means a tad less freedom for him. Then the other factor is how much those City forwards are able to stretch the TW back three and find space between them – an area in which they’ll really miss the pace and directness of Rogerson. Plus there are two relatively inexperienced goalkeepers likely to be on show and there’s always the possibility of penalties.
You want a prediction? Well you’re not gonna get one. Sorry ‘bout it but it’s just way more fun to set up the chess board and watch the game play out than it is to try and predict things. Auckland City have to be the favourites based on winning the round robin stage and based on their win in the last head to head win... but there’s more than enough going in Team Welly’s favour for them to feel pretty confident themselves. It’s not like there isn’t a precedent either – a couple years ago Auckland City went undefeated through the regular season only to lose at home to Team Welly in the semis. This has been the defining rivalry of this competition and there’s one last defining bout to come... and at the end of the day that’s all we really need to know.
Auckland City vs Team Wellington, 2020-21 Men’s Premiership Grand Final
3.10pm Kickoff at QBE Stadium, Auckland
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