Exploring The Wellington Phoenix’s Efficiency Boost Under Giancarlo Italiano
The Wellington Phoenix’s unbeaten start to the A-League Men’s season came thumping to a tortured end on Saturday night as they were dropped 3-0 at home by the Newcastle Jets. Goals conceded early in both halves (including a penalty conceded inside a minute of the second) as well as another late in the first. Chances of their own spurned throughout. It was one of those days. After six games of efficient footy in both penalty areas, particularly in a defensive sense, hot form that had taken them all the way to the summit of the standings... game seven was basically the sheer opposite experience.
Soft goals conceded after having had one of the league’s best defences? ALM player of the month Alex Paulsen making an error for the second goal and being unable to save a penalty for the third? Scott Wootton and Finn Surman tackling each other and conceding a reckless foul for that penalty? The Nix having more shots but lower xG? Alex Rufer getting himself on the wrong side of the line with his foul count and a first half booking? These are events from the other side of the looking glass. They’re the kinds of issues that plagued the Nix last season, events which new coach Giancarlo Italiano has worked hard to overcome. But considering that he’s still working with basically the same group of players it’s probably fair to say that this performance may have been overdue.
What a night like that also does, so reminiscent of the ways in which they struggled for consistency last season, is it highlights how spectacular the change has been. To have been top of the table one week ago (they’re still third, mate) after their best ever start to an A-League campaign despite losing at least four starting level players – possibly as many as seven depending on your personal tastes – and replacing them with two backups from Newcastle and a bunch of academy fellas... that’s not normal. It ain’t supposed to be like this. Chiefy, please. Take care They don’t come for you.
Oli Sail, Clayton Lewis, Callan Elliot, Steven Ugarkovic, Josh Laws, Lucas Mauragis (who played a very tidy ninety against them for the Jets in this latest game), and Yan Sasse... those seven players accounted for 45% of the team’s total minutes. You may recall they never actually replaced Ben Waine after he left early in the season either. A moment of acknowledgement, please, for the level they’ve already been able to reach under the guidance of the one they call Chief.
How exactly have the Wellington Phoenix done this? The simple answer is that Italiano has played the same hand in a very different way. He’s shaken up the formation after four years of Talay’s 4-2-2-2 variations, adjusting it to fit the strengths of his key players. A lack of injuries so far has also aided them, with the exception of Oskar Zawada who limped off against Newcastle. Incredibly, nine different players have started all seven games. One other has started six (Al-Taay) and Zawada is at five. Consistency of selection goes a long way towards embedding those new/adapted combinations, particularly at the back where academy grads Alex Paulsen, Finn Surman, and Lukas Kelly-Heald have all been elevated to crucial roles at the ages of 21, 20, and 18 respectively. But that’s not a detailed enough answer for a written article so let us apply the magnifying glass to five specific areas.
Alex Paulsen’s Glorious Goalkeeping
The signing of Jack Duncan, a solid median level ALM goalie, rather than a clear number one should only ever have been seen as a vote of confidence in Alex Paulsen’s abilities. Sure enough, Paulsen has been spectacular to begin the campaign. He’s the youngest goalkeeper to have started a game this season (although Adam Pavlešić will edge him by a month if he gets the go in place of the suspended Andrew Redmayne next week for Sydney FC) yet he’s also been one of the best. It’s a vindication for all of us who’d watched him at National League and NZ age grade stuff over the past few years and seen the undeniable talent that he possessed.
Paulsen has conceded seven goals in seven games... and this is after the Jets shambles. That’s exactly one goal per ninety minutes, the top margin in the competition. His three clean sheets rank second. His save percentage of 78.6% is fourth and that’s despite being the only goalie to have faced three penalties – he saved two of them. Those two penalty saves were both in games that the Nix won by a single goal (2-1 vs Perth & 1-0 vs Melbourne City) so that’s four competition points right there that this bloke has saved his team.
To keep it honest, that’s miles ahead of what Oli Sail gave them last season. Sail’s first year as a starter was comparable to what Paulsen is doing now so keep that in mind. But Sail couldn't maintain that standard as his save percentage dipped from 79.1% to 72.1% to 70% year on year. He only kept five clean sheets in all of last season. He’s also already been dropped by Perth Glory. Somewhat harshly after only two games (a change in manager hasn’t helped his cause), with a stinker against his old club proving to be the tipping point.
It runs deeper than just the saves. Paulsen has always had a knack with the ball at his feet too, confidently and patiently playing through the high press and with a very accurate long pass. Plus he’s developed a real assuredness in dealing with the aerial stuff. That fumble for Newcastle’s second goal was his first genuine error (he did concede one of those three penalties too but we all know how debatable those things can be). When Paulsen signed that three-year contract extension prior to the season, that didn’t mean he planned to stay in Wellington for three more years. Nope, that’s what the business folk call: protecting your on-sale value. The Welly Nix know what they’ve got and they’re courting transfer fees.
Wootts & Surmdog
It takes more than a good goalie to keep clean sheets. It takes a strong defensive unit all around. The Nix have plenty of funkiness with how their fullbacks operate but the bread and butter comes from Scott Wootton delivering the quality you hope for from an import defender and Finn Surman showing that despite his youth he’s more than capable of doing the job alongside (he and Paulsen were rewarded with All Whites call-ups recently, with Surman earning his first cap off the bench against Greece).
Both Wootton and Surman are in the top six for clearances per ninety minutes. Both of them. The same is also true of Tomislav Uskok and Jonathan Aspropotamitis of Western United so these are the two teams you don’t want to be flipping weak crosses against because they’ll repel them all day long. Wootton and Surman also each have passing accuracies above 90%, with Wootton taking on more of those build-up duties.
The attack is the more obvious instance of Italiano putting players in situations to succeed but the same is true at centre-back. One of the things that made Wootton look pretty average last season was his preference to defend only what he sees in front of him, leading to a hesitancy to commit and a tendency to get stuck on the back foot. In contrast, Surman tends to jump into challenges much more rashly. But with defensive-minded midfielders like Alex Rufer and Mo Al-Taay ahead of them, as well as fullbacks who can tuck inside and a goalkeeper who is covering all angles, they’re protected enough for it balance out. Especially Wootton who is beginning to look like the leader they signed him to be... no doubt helped by how much fitter he looks.
Alex Rufer Vacuum Cleaning In The Midfield
The midfield was the area most affected by offseason departures with Clayton Lewis and Steven Ugarkovic both leaving. Nico Pennington was re-signed and promised a starting role. Mo Al-Taay was scooped up as a hard tackling option. Academy standout Fin Conchie was elevated to a full contract. But the most notable addition has been this new version of Alex Rufer.
The captain often looked rigid in Talay’s system, almost robotic in the way he was expected to do all that touch-and-pass stuff with lots of right-angles and square positioning. Under Italiano there’s more emphasis on playing around corners, progressing in-and-out, trusting teammates to receive the ball under pressure, and looking deep with angled long passes over the top. Rufer isn’t exactly a guy who plays with his head on a swivel for that 360 degree awareness but this evolution has opened his game up enough to complement the crunching off-ball stuff that he always provides.
Who has won the most tackles in the A-League this season? Alex Rufer. Who is second-equal for interceptions? Alex Rufer. Who is also in the top five for fouls conceded? Alex Rufer. Admittedly, that’s the one drawback about his defensive mahi: he attempts as many tackles as anyone but he doesn’t always win them. 16 tackles won compared to 14 fouls conceded. Those fouls might not all have been from tackle attempts but you still get the picture. Thing is, that’s not necessarily a terrible thing. A CDM has to be given room to concede a few fouls from time to time as part of the gig (same as how a striker needs a certain amount of leeway with offsides). A foul is still a disruptive act that breaks up play, allowing the defence to get back and get ready for the set piece. Given how good Wootton and Surman have been at coping with such situations it all remains harmonious.
Revenge Of The xG
Alrighty, time to take a peek at this season on season improvement in that pesky old Expected Goals stat...
2022-23: 42.9 xG for 39 goals scored (-3.9) | 44.3 xG against for 45 goals conceded (-0.7)
2023-24: 8.8xG for 10 goals scored (+1.2) | 10.1 xG against for 7 goals conceded (+3.1)
You can also work out a positive overall goal difference from those numbers. Clearly one half is referring to a full season and another only to seven games so let’s average that out to per game tallies...
2022-23: 1.65 xG for 1.50 goals per game (-0.15) | 1.70 xGA for 1.73 goals conceded/gm (-0.03)
2023-24: 1.26 xG for 1.43 goals per game (+0.17) | 1.44 xGA for 1.00 goals conceded/gm (+0.44)
Put a pin in that lower average xG for this season because that’s going to be the next segment. But first, a nod of approval for improved finishing. These are the same players, minus Yan Sasse, but while they haven’t been able to score heaps, with five of their goals coming in one game and two 1-0 wins boosting their stocks, they’ve still been able to find timely goals throughout. Those stats looked even brighter before they added 1.43 xG without a goal in the Jets loss.
This is where switching the base formation has helped so much. Italiano has spoken about how he’s got heaps of different situational formations that his team cycles through in games but it begins with a 4-3-3 (or 4-3-2-1 if you prefer) that treats Oskar Zawada as a focal point centre-forward with wingers who work around him. Kosta Barbarouses likes to make those initial runs, creating things with his enterprise and bringing his fullback Tim Payne into the action. Bozhidar Kraev likes to drift infield and be direct (while Lukas Kelly-Heald tends to tuck inside). Nico Pennington loves a run into the penalty area. David Ball just drifts around trying to link things together whether he’s up front or out wide. Ben Old has played off the bench in every game and his dribbling usually creates a few things (he’s consistently been one of the most fouled players in the ALM since his debut – a rate of impact translated directly from what he was doing in the National League).
Add that all together and what you get is that most of the shots are being taken by Zawada and Kraev while Ball and Barbarouses are focussing on assists instead. Like, to the point where the latter two almost look afraid to shoot. Ball’s assist for Kraev the other week was a great example of this where he was 1v1 with the keeper and chose, very deliberately, to slide a pass over to BK instead. Wouldn’t ya know it, the numbers back that up with both Barbarouses and Ball dropping drastically in their shooting output... yet hugely increasing their accuracy – suggesting that they’re only really shooting when shooting is overwhelmingly the best option.
| 2022-23 ALM | Shots | SOT | S/90 | SOT% | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zawada | 71 | 32 | 3.2 | 45.1 | 12.7 | 15 |
| Kraev | 50 | 21 | 2.6 | 42.0 | 5.6 | 7 |
| Barbarouses | 38 | 16 | 2.5 | 42.1 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Ball | 27 | 10 | 1.4 | 37.0 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Old | 17 | 1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Pennington | 3 | 1 | 0.9 | 33.3 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Payne | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2023-24 ALM | Shots | SOT | S/90 | SOT% | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zawada | 14 | 4 | 2.8 | 28.6 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Kraev | 12 | 5 | 1.8 | 41.7 | 1.6 | 3 |
| Barbarouses | 8 | 6 | 1.2 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ball | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 66.7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Old | 4 | 1 | 1.8 | 25.5 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Pennington | 9 | 5 | 1.5 | 55.6 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Payne | 6 | 1 | 0.9 | 16.7 | 0.5 | 1 |
Note also how Pennington and Payne have gone from non-factors in attack to being big factors in attack. Payne was mostly a CB last year but he’s already matched Callan Elliot’s goal tally with only one fewer shot a mere quarter of the way through the term. Pennington hardly played last year but his averages tell you the difference. Plus we’re hopefully witnessing a marked improvement in Ben Old’s finishing... his end product having been his achilles heel to this point. He scored a slick one the other week though, fingers crossed he’s bringing that around.
You may also have spotted a drop in the shooting rates of Zawada and Kraev in there too. That’s where the next idea comes into relevance.
Fewer But Better Chances
There was something that Chiefy said in his press standup prior to the Jets game which sums up as important aspect of how this team has been going about their business...
Giancarlo Italiano: “Everyone would love more goal scoring opportunities but what matters most is how effective you are with them. You can be Melbourne Victory a couple of weeks ago with 18 shots and you don’t score. We had none and we scored. For me that’s more effective. It’s not in the quantity, it’s about the quality. Quality of play, quality of opportunity, quality of how we defend.”
Quality not quantity. Hence that Victory game in which this hilarity ensued...
There is a process at play here. The Nix have identified their patterns of attack. There’s direct stuff. There’s set piece stuff. Heaps of transitional attacks. Runners in behind. Fullbacks getting up in support. All sorts of ideas. But what they don’t really do is shoot for the sake of shooting.
So far they’ve attempted the fewest shots per game (9.57 – the only team under 10) yet have scored from 13% of those shots which is the third best mark. Even better if you only count shots on target, in which they’re second scoring from 35% of them... the top team being Newcastle who are the team that takes the second-fewest overall shots. Meanwhile the team that takes the most shots, Sydney FC with 20.14 per 90min, have scored fewer goals than the Phoenix. Maybe shot tallies are actually overrated? Yes. Yes, they are.
That’s not to say that the attack is a well-oiled machine though. Probably gotta say the opposite, to be fair. The sweet spot is somewhere in between taking more shots and taking better shots. As in, keep creating quality opportunities to shoot from inside the penalty area with space... but do it more often. That’s not really happening at the moment.
Luckily, the drastic improvements in the team’s defence have covered for the lack of goals by effectively meaning that they can afford to score at a slow rate. The Nix scored in 25/27 games last season (the elimination final being one of the two, sadly) but had eight draws and three single-goal defeats. Those are the kinds of games they’ve been able to sneak points from in the early stages of this campaign. That’s despite only twice having scored multiple times in a match through seven weeks. This isn’t speculative either, Italiano said exactly this in that same press conference...
Chiefy: “To be perfectly honest, I don’t think we’re playing to the level that I think we can. I think we’re going in the right direction. I think if we’re serious about doing anything major this season we need to increase the consistency overall in terms of with the ball especially. I think defensively we’re quite sound at the moment but we can still improve in that respect. Even small things like set pieces, I think we can be a little more effective on the attacking side. There are things that we’re working towards.”
All of which begs the question: How sustainable is this?
See, there’s two things that it can mean when you outperform your expected goals tally: one is that you’re lucky, two is that you’re good. Sometimes those two things are the same thing. In the long run such stats tend to average out. Alex Paulsen can’t save every penalty. Ball and Barbarouses still aren’t scoring goals. An injury to Rufer or Wootton (not to mention Zawada) could leave them in the desperation zone. There’s still so much inexperience in this squad.
No, the truth is that they probably can’t sustain being able to win games while that far ahead of their xG at both ends. There are just too many reasons to think otherwise. And yet there’s one enormous reason to be optimistic because who says that this is anything near the polished product from this Welly Nix side?
The Nix get predicted to finish down the bottom every season by certain folks but this time the detractors did actually have a point. It’s easy to snub your nose given how things have turned out yet at the time that combination of an inexperienced new coach, the almost complete lack of recruitment, and an uninspiring Aussie Cup run hardly inspired confidence. Picking them to finish near the bottom was the logical thing to do... even Italiano has expressed surprise that they’ve come this far this quickly.
And that is exactly why we can trust that they haven’t peaked after two months. That there’s plenty more improvement to follow from a team that has steadily added to the bag since Chief took over. It usually takes most of the season for a new coach to get their ideas across in a way that they’re satisfied with, if not multiple seasons. If this is where they’re at after seven A-League games then they’re miles ahead of schedule. Stay safe out there folks. Good things are happening in yellow and black.
Quick word to say that if you rate the yarns on TNC, consider joining the crew of absolute troopers who support our work financially on Patreon or with a Paid Substack – you folks are champions and we couldn’t do this without you
Also helps to whack an ad when you read something, shout us a beverage, and to tell your mates about your fave indie NZ sports website
Keep cool but care