The Wellington Phoenix women lost again this past weekend, repeating a pattern that’s become quite concerning. Despite taking a very early lead against Central Coast Mariners (the Main Train arriving on schedule), they ended up losing 2-1 for their part in the A-League’s Unite Round. To make matters worse, that was technically a home game... meaning that the Wellington Phoenix, with one of the best home records in the ALW and also one of the worst away records, will end up playing 10 games in Aotearoa and 12 games in Australia. Fate can be a cruel dance partner sometimes.

Weirdly, the first two weeks of the season threw two wicked doosras in our direction, fooling us as to what was to follow. In week one the Nix lost 1-0 at home against Melbourne City. In week two they won 3-0 away against Western Sydney Wanderers. Now here we are after 12 weeks and they have not lost another home game since and they have not won another away game since. First came the outliers and then came the patterns. A five-game unbeaten home streak and a five-game losing away streak.

Yes, the WahiNix are the Henry Nicholls of the A-League. For those who don’t follow the gentleman’s game of cricket, Nicholls is a Blackcaps Test batter who averages 48 in Aotearoa and just 24 everywhere else. World class at home, with an away record that would have him instantly dropped if taken in isolation. Add it all together, however, and he’s got a solid international record with a shade under 3000 runs, an average of 37, and nine Test centuries. Similarly, here’s what the SheNix season has looked like so far...

Welly Nix In NZ:

6 GP | 4 W | 1 D | 1 L | 11 GF | 6 GA | +5 GD | 13 PTS

Welly Nix In AU:

6 GP | 1 W | 0 D | 5 L | 6 GF | 8 GA | -2 GD | 3 PTS

How you view the team’s present state depends on how much you want to compartmentalise that record. Unfortunately, the Nix are coming off a stretch of three straight games in Australia so right now things are pretty dark. They’ve been on the downswing. However, keep that in mind that this is how it’s been all along. It’s just that this time there wasn’t the emotional relief of a home victory in between a clotting of away games. Plus, let’s be honest, five of their first seven games were at home and that may have overstated where the team was really at.

The comfortable confines of Porirua will beckon again but that frontloaded home schedule means that six of the team’s last ten games are on the road, starting with Melbourne City away next week. They’re going to need to start picking up points on their travels if they’re going to do the things that they’re aiming to do this season. That’s a scary prospect based on how things have been tracking. Yet we do also have to remember where this team is coming from: back to back wooden spoons. This time they’re targeting finals footy, and these are the types of hurdles that have to be overcome along that journey.

When placed under that context, the Paul Temple Era has so far been fantastic. This team had never won back to back games before... they won three in a row following that opening week defeat. For all their goal-scoring worries in the past, there have only been three games in which they’ve been shut out this term. Room to improve still, no doubt about that, but major improvements have been made after 8 shutouts in 18 games last season and 7/14 the season before. Previously they’d only scored multiple times in 9/32 matches. They’ve already done so in 6/12 games this time around – and that number really ought to be higher. They’re holding possession nicely, embracing the new Small Ball philosophy, and perhaps biggest step-up of all is that they’ve competitive in every single contest. None of these Bad Day At The Office throwaways. All of their six defeats have come by single-goal margins.

Of course, with greater competitiveness comes greater expectations. The thing about such close defeats is that you’re always one mistake away from not being defeated. And when such narrow defeats continually repeat like this, it means this team isn’t owning the big moments like they should be. You only have to look at a few of the goals they’ve conceded, and some of the chances they’ve wasted, to understand the truth in that idea. But they’re close. They’re clearly talented enough. They’ve scored first in three of those away defeats. So why does this keep happening? A multitude of reasons, as always, though here are three major ones to consider...

INCONSISTENT SELECTIONS

Across the other side of the same club, the Welly Nix Blokes are currently back occupying first place on the ALM table and they’ve done so with an astonishing eight players having started all 12 games to date, including the bulk of their defensive crew. Alex Paulsen, Tim Payne, Finn Surman, Scott Wootton, Alex Rufer, Nico Pennington, Bozhidar Kraev, and Kosta Barbarouses. The first four of them (the goalie and three of the back four) have all played every single minute, while CDM Rufer has only been subbed once.

There were a couple of main worries leading into this season for the lads. How would untested Giancarlo Italiano handle the manager’s job? Could they get improved performances out of some of last year’s underachievers? Would they be able to handle the obvious depth issues that emerge from only signing two outsiders despite losing half their starting line-up? And what about those academy fellas stepping up to fill those voids? Well... Italiano’s been brilliant, the resurgence of Kosta Barbarouses tells you all you need to know about the second question. That last worry’s going alright with six new ALM debutants from the academy and guys like Paulsen and Surman delivering breakthrough campaigns. As for the depth dramas... it turns out the simplest way to deal with that is to not have injuries or suspensions. Oskar Zawada is the only key player to have missed any extended time so far.

It’d be nice to say similar things about the women’s team but if we did it’d be a lie. The men have four everpresent players and eight who’ve started all 12 games. The women have also played 12 games... they have none of either. Hailey Davidson was the last remaining perfect starter until she came off the bench in the Central Coast defeat. There are a couple others who are close: Kate Taylor, Mackenzie Barry, Michaela Foster, Macey Fraser, and Mariana Speckmaier have each also made 11 starts. Rebecca Lake and Hope Breslin join Speckmaier, Davidson, Foster, Breslin, and Barry as having appeared in all 12 games, albeit in their cases with several bench spots included.

In other words, everyone has missed some time. Starting line-ups are changing from week to week. A few of the gals have been asked to do a job in different positions. Combinations are regularly getting disrupted, or not having time to develop at all. Not really conducive to peak performance. There’s been a variety of reasons why this is happening, from long-term injuries to minor day-to-day ones, international commitments, personal leave, and regular old rest n’ rotation. There was even a bout of covid within the squad at one stage. A handful of players have been added to the squad mid-season to try and combat these dramas (Isabel Cox, Tiana Jaber, Helena Errington)... though that also means more shuffling as they get settled.

To put it simply: it’s hard to win football games when you’re unable to pick consistent line-ups. It’s hard to find rhythm and develop combinations when things are always changing. Which leads directly into the next idea.

SECOND HALF PERFORMANCES

The home/away disparity is drastic. The first half to second half disparity isn’t great either... they’ve got a +4 goal difference in first stanzas (10 scored, 6 against), and a -1 goal difference after the breaks (7 for, 8 against). You can probably guess that it’s much worse in away games. They did score three second half goals in the 3-0 win against Western Sydney... but since then they have not scored a second half goal in any of the five consecutive away losses. In fact they haven’t scored after the 21st minute. It’s also true that the SheNix have allowed seven goals after the 70th minute of games this season – admittedly much of that in the earlier fixtures (and some were only consolations) yet all of this still adds up to show a team that struggles to maintain their levels over ninety minutes.

Perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise when you consider the selection issues they’ve had. Injuries and fitness and focus are all problems that are going to express themselves later in games. Add in the not-inconsiderable temperature difference between a Wellington summer and an Australian summer and the added fatigue that comes from travel... it’s a tough gig, that’s for sure.

This looks troubling but really all they need is for things to settle down so they can pick a steady line-up with a steady bunch of substitutes who can come on and affect the game in a positive way. On that note, it won’t happen mid-term but, as Paul Temple has mentioned multiple times, the ALW’s limit of five-player benches is completely outdated. They should probs change that, aye? Plus, just quietly, the other thing the Nix can do to improve their second halves is to be more ruthless in their first halves. Pretty sure they wouldn’t have lost to Adelaide, for example, had they been 3-0 up at HT as they should have been.

IMPORT RESPONSIBILITIES

The last time the Nix won was a routine 2-0 victory at home (of course) against Newcastle Jets. Mariana Speckmaier and Hope Breslin combined for the goals. Exactly what you want from your imports: providing the quality to turn good performances into good wins. Except... that hasn’t quite been how it’s happened in other matches, especially those away ones.

This is the first season in which the WahiNix have had imports at their disposal and the expectation was that they would be the ones to take the team to the next level. They have done that... but perhaps in a more modest manner than hoped for. Mariana Speckmaier and Rylee Foster have the definite successes, albeit not without their own slumps: Speckmaier has 1.2 xG from six games in Aussie and 3.5 xG from six games in New Zealand. 10 shots with 3 on target in away games. 18 shots with 5 on target in home games. She has lately begun to be used more often in wide positions (aligning with all these away trips) which is a factor. But Specky clearly has not been immune to the away day malaise. Nor Rylee Foster, who has mostly been great with a save percentage above 80%... but there have been a few notable mistakes in there – the giveaway that lead to Brisbane’s equaliser worst of all.

As for the other three imports, they’ve been fine but fine isn’t really what you pay for. Hope Breslin hasn’t been able to maintain a starting spot, three times having to play off the bench. There have been flashes of excellence with her but there are also times where she tries to do too much. Isabel Cox has shown some nice flashes but it’s too soon to say much else. Elsewhere Hailey Davidson is a solid defensive fullback but she doesn’t make many tackles and doesn’t offer much going forward. None of that is bad. None of that is hampering the team. But if we’re looking for room for improvement in order to convert these close defeats into points then asking for more from their imported talent is a reasonable request.

It’s curious that all five imports are North American, with only the Canadian Rylee Foster having had a notable club career in Europe (though Speckmaier and Davidson did play briefly in Scandinavia). Americans have long enjoyed Aussie summer jaunts thanks to the timing of the respective seasons, and this does put an interesting perspective on the standard of the A-League given that fringe NWSL players look good but not great when they land in Oz. Including Issy Cox who came straight out of college, rather than trying to get amongst the NWSL Draft. There’s no doubt that plenty of talent falls through the cracks in that American system, especially without an established second tier after college. But still curious that the Nix picked all their imports from that same general region. Probably a financial thing, to be fair.

Beyond that... they need to score a few more goals and conceded a couple less. Simple, right? Temple’s team really aren’t that far away from where they want to be. Straighten out a few bad habits and there ya go. Catch some better luck with injuries, get some consistent selections, get those ninety minutes performances going, ask a little more from the imports. Maybe tweak the midfield shape or find a box-to-box midfielder to do those Grace Wisnewski/Chloe Knott things that keep it all in balance. And if they can do that then a first ever A-League Women’s finals game will surely beckon. That was the target in preseason. Now here comes the bit where they need to earn it.

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