In an ideal world, the Breakers would have followed their (long overdue) ownership change by barging their way into the finals. Bit much to ask for a championship straight up... but imagine how vindicating it would have been if they signed a bunch of NZers, after the previous bosses shied away from the local depth, and immediately got good again. That didn’t happen though. They got better, sure, but the glimpses of burgeoning excellence were rare. Instead this was a team full of inconsistencies which often struggled to put four good quarters together and once the dust settled they had to settle for a 13-20 record. Although they did win the Ignite Cup.

That Ignite Cup victory was a lovely way to polish things off, delivering one of their best performances all year against a really good Adelaide 36ers team (that had beaten them in two close games within the previous couple weeks, each involving poor late-game tactics and execution from the Breakers as has been so common throughout the campaign), finishing on a high and banking something tangible. The prize money aspect was over-hyped, most broadcasters are out there trying to build up their athletes as fierce and honourable competitors who are in it for the sport whereas the NBL was out there telling us that it means more because money, money, money. Very American and very antithetical to what fans actually like to hear. Of course it’s a motivating factor... but so is the chance to win a trophy. And it’s been a long time since the Breakers did so... unless you count the Preseason Blitz, in which case Coach Petteri Koponen won two trophies. How about that? Two trophies and zero playoff appearances.

A very heavy win against an unmotivated and undermanned Cairns Taipans side in the last regular season game was good fun too. The Breakers welcomed back Sam Mennenga and Karim Lopez from injuries for that game (in advance of the Ignite Cup final – if you think the prize money was the only thing that mattered then explain Karim Lopez rushing back to play when he’s going to be getting NBA paycheques in a few months). Not to mention Mennenga who returned from a broken wrist after only four weeks (they’d thought it’d be six to eight weeks) to post a career high with 32 points. As did Carlin Davison (15pts), as did Tukaha Cooper (7pts) getting some nice minutes at the end. They finished the game with a deliciously patriotic line-up of: Taylor Britt, Alex McNaught, Tukaha Cooper, Liam Judd, Jack Andrew.

But ultimately this was a disappointing season. They were usually competitive but struggled badly in close games. They dug themselves in a hole with four losses to start the season. They barely managed to win consecutive games (their record immediately after a win was: 4-9). They got inconsistent performances from their imports, especially early on. They suffered a few pesky injuries along the way. And so on and so forth. This team had the talent to finish in the top six but not the cohesion or consistency. Perhaps that was to be expected in a transitional year under new ownership.

Where It Went Wrong

Fourth Quarters – Would you believe it, the Breakers were 4-8 in games where the margin was five points or fewer (in either direction) after three quarters. In other words: the kept losing close games. It was something they got better at as the season went on, considering how they lost their first seven such fixtures... but the damage had been done. They had a +34 points differential in first halves and a -69 points differential in second halves. On so many occasions we’d see these guys challenging for so much of the way, only for dumb mistakes to creep into their game when it got to those possession by possession phases with the result on the line – often taking the form of PJC bounding the ball around for 15 seconds before launching into a tough drive to the hoop or a contested three (at his size they’re all contested threes). Turnovers and poor shooting were issues too.

Three-Point Shooting – The league-wide average for outside shots this season was roughly 32%. Players with at least 25 attempts who shot above that rate for the Breakers: Rob Baker (39.3%), Izaiah Brockington (34.4%), Rob Loe (32.9%), and Karim Lopez (32.2%). Players with at least 25 attempts who averaged less than 30%? That’s a list for Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Carlin Davison, Sam Mennenga, Izayah Le’Afa, and Tai Webster. They shot the lights out in the Ignite Cup final (12/23 3pters) to win that game but like so many of the necessary traits of this team, that was a rare occurrence - the only game in which they shot better from distance was an overtime loss, also against Adelaide, a few weeks earlier. They just didn’t have enough reliable shooters.

Coaching – Frankly, much of this has to fall on the shoulders of second-year head coach Petteri Koponen. GM Dillon Boucher praised him pre-season for being able to keep the motivations high with a losing team in his first year and the Ignite Cup win proved that he’s done the same again this time. This team didn’t quit. But while that might be encouraging enough to earn a second year, it’s cutting it fine when it comes to a third. These Breakers had four victories by 29-or-more points and three losses by the same margins. They repeatedly fumbled games in fourth quarters. They missed out on the top six by one win, having gone 1- against last-placed Brisbane Bullets (accounting for exactly half of the Bullets’ total wins). Kop’s constant substitutions have been criticised, arguably contributing to a sense of disjointedness. His team was wildly inconsistent. There were improvements as the term went along, much of them down to the imports raising their levels, but the Breakers of NBL26 never really hit their stride and were always prone to lapses. That’s a coach’s responsibility.

Where It Went Right

Sam Mennenga – Next Generation Award winner for NBL26... pretty unlucky to get pipped to the Most Improved Award by his Tall Blacks teammate Flynn Cameron too. Mennenga did things last season that convinced everyone he was capable of a season like this but putting it together every week was the trick. Well, that’s what he did. Mennenga played in 28 games, including the Ignite Cup final, and scored at least 20 points in exactly half of those. Only on six occasions was he held to single figures (NZB were 0-6 in those games). Not a good three-point shooter (23.6%) and sometimes the team’s approach was a bit too presumptive in that regard... but an absolute monster in the post whose stats improved in basically every meaningful category from last season to this season (and he was still pretty good last season!). The Breakers had a 121.3 Offensive Rating with Mennenga on the floor, that’s nuts. Respect to Parker Jackson-Cartwright but statistically it was Sam Mennenga who was the team’s MVP.

Karim Lopez – He made mistakes like any young player is going to do... but his value as a Next Star offering starter’s minutes was unreal. He was basically a fourth import, think what an advantage that offers a team. You could even claim he outperformed a couple of the imports. Destined for the NBA, no doubt about it. His 32-point performance in a thrilling win against Melbourne United in January was the high-point (doing that against one of the best teams at age 18... jeepers), reinforcing his draft stock among the foreign scouts – with several NBA folks, including Sean Marks, turning up in person to check him out. Athletically, he’s amazing. Should be able to develop into a really nice defender at the top level once he gains more experience. Could be an issue that he shot 43.6% from threes in the first 17 games (24/55) but then only made 7/37 at 18.9% in his last 14 games, since he’s going to need to be able to knock down consistent threes to stay on the floor in the Association. But he had the second best Net Rating in the team and was almost always a big contributor when this team was winning. In many ways he was the barometer: the Breakers were 12-3 when Lopez scored 12+ points... and 1-15 when he didn’t (and 1-2 while he was injured).

The Culture – Wasn’t it nice that even amidst another losing season there were no big scandals and the ownership never forced any player signings upon the coach and the media strategy was honest and authentic and gimmicks were at a minimum and Aotearoa’s only professional basketball team felt like a professional basketball team that belonged to (and in) Aotearoa?

SAM MENNENGA WITH THE POSTER DUNK 🤯

Watch live on ESPN & Disney+ 📺 pic.twitter.com/NHPhCUMYvo
— NBL (@NBL) January 21, 2026

Where It Goes From Here

Flexibility is always crucial in any offseason and this Breakers organisation have plenty of that. Only three players are under contract for next season: Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Reuben Te Rangi, and Izayah Le’Afa. The club also has options on the contracts of Max Darling and Taylor Britt, though that’s only relevant if they decide to keep them. Everybody else is up for grabs and that includes head coach Petteri Koponen who has now finished his two-year contract. They can go in any direction they want with this thing.

Dillon Boucher to NZH: “At the moment, we don’t have a huge number back next season, but it’s almost purposely done to be able to start again from scratch. Some of the players are on existing contracts that were there before we started. Some are brand-new contracts. So for us, it’ll be what are the key pieces we need to be stronger next season. Some guys really put their hand up towards the end of the season, knowing that their contracts are going to be up for renewal. And some guys seal the fate for themselves with either performances or how they behave and things like that.”

Having PJC locked down helps massively. That’s one of their three import spots settled on a player who has already more than proven himself in this league. Players will want to play alongside him, adding to the team’s pull for free agents. Plus with Jackson-Cartwright on board the identity of the team has already begun to take shape for next season. Hopefully it’ll be an identity that doesn’t go missing in fourth quarters but that’s more of a coaching issue than a PJC issue even though he does carry his share of responsibility as the point guard and offensive instigator. That’s the burden of being a star player... but he’s definitely a star player so that’s the first offseason mission already sorted.

The next offseason mission, arguably even more important than the coaching, is trying to coax Sam Mennenga back. There’s no time to waste here. There are lots of good coaches available but Mennenga is a rare commodity as a local player, a kiwi no less, who has confirmed himself among the best in his position across the NBL. The Breakers missed out on guys like Flynn Cameron and Finn Delany a year ago but they did keep Mennenga on board for what proved his breakthrough season. Any team in the league, and many in other leagues, would like a bloke like that... and as a free agent he’s about to find out just how far that interest goes. Chances are he’ll return to Puerto Rico in his offseason where he was absolutely immense a year ago, then who knows perhaps he’ll get another NBA Summer League shot. Barely got to play for the LA Lakers last time but he’s boosted his reputation since then. After that, he’s got a serious decision to make.

Sam Mennenga to The Post: “I haven’t put too much thought into it. I’m aware I have a good enough body of work to test free agency and see where my value lies [in] different parts of the world. I like the NBL and like what the Breakers are doing, so by no means am I avoiding coming back to those situations. But there is a business aspect to it. I need to test out free agency and those conversations will happen in the next few weeks and months. I’m not ruling anything out. I’m open and ready to look at every different aspect and opportunity.”

Keep in mind that they’re definitely going to lose Karim Lopez too. That bloke is NBA-bound, there’s no doubt about it. Boucher has kept open the possibility of adding another Next Star although if they do they’re not going to get someone of Lopez’s ability straight away. The fact that Lopez was in his second season with the team was absolutely massive in getting the best he had to offer at this stage of his career. Hence there’s even more pressure on the local contingent to step up and losing Mennenga on top of that would put them way behind the eight-ball.

NZ Players Who’ll Be NBL Free Agents

Keanu Rasmussen (Adelaide 36ers)
Tohi Smith-Milner (Brisbane Bullets)
Sam Mennenga (Cairns Taipans)
Mojave King (Cairns Taipans)
Luca Yates (Illawarra Hawks)
Finn Delany (Melbourne United – Mutual Option)
Dontae Russo-Nance (Perth Wildcats)

We’ll get a better idea in a few weeks what the college graduate class will look like but Kaia Isaac, Walter Brown, and Tafara Gapare are among the seniors likely to be looking for pro deals. Then there hombres like Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, Hyrum Harris, and most enticingly Yanni Wetzell who are playing overseas and could be enticed back. Along with any keen Aussies who’d fancy it.

It’s worth wondering if Izaiah Brockington would benefit from a second season. He looked so good in preseason but then took ages to find his comfort spot in the rotation, regularly putting up negative on-court plus-minus figures even in victories. But his three-point shot went crazy over the last couple months and that brought out a much smoother version of Brock. His retention depends on whether Boucher and company believe that he’s the best available fit alongside PJC and it also depends on his willingness to return. But it’s a conversation to be had.

Brockington Season Average:

16.0 PTS (49.9 FG%, 34.4 3P%) | 3.9 REB | 2.0 AST | -0.4 NET

Brockington Last 10 Games:

19.8 PTS (56.2 FG%, 51.2 3P%) | 3.8 REB | 2.6 AST | +5.4 NET

Unlike Rob Baker who at times was the most quietly efficient of the imports but he didn’t fit easily into Coach Kop’s rotations, especially once it became clear that Sam Mennenga had gone to a new level. They probably would have wanted to use his spot on someone else anyway, just to keep it fresh and perhaps target a different position, but it’s all moot anyway because RB2 tore his ACL in January and won’t be fit for the start of next season. So he’s off the table.

Other than that, Carlin Davison has surely earned a new contract (probably with a healthy raise) after what he delivered. That highlight reel athleticism scaled all the way up to NBL rotation status and the more he plays at this level, the less we’ll see the silly mistakes from him.

However, the rest are probably going to have to wait. They need to sort the coach before they go making too many roster decisions. Tai Webster is probably the only other dude who you’d consider re-signing blindly but he was only there as an injury replacement and he never quite settled to his full capacity either (his 18.5% three-point accuracy is a worry within a team with a few too many bad shooters, although Webster’s been far better from range at other stops in his career). Hard to see Sean Bairstow being retained and after four years of development player duties it’s probably similar for Alex McNaught.

	MINS	PPG	RPG	APG	ORTG	DRTG	NET
Parker Jackson-Cartwright	1018	17.6	4.5	7.5	111.4	112.7	-1.3
Izaiah Brockington	917	16.0	3.9	2.0	116.4	116.8	-0.4
Sam Mennenga	748	17.7	6.9	1.7	121.3	112.8	8.5
Karim Lopez	767	11.9	6.1	1.9	116.0	109.5	6.5
Reuben Te Rangi	612	6.5	2.4	0.6	102.6	117.9	-15.3
Rob Baker	520	10.2	4.8	0.7	113.0	107.7	5.3
Carlin Davison	520	5.2	3.3	1.2	107.3	112.7	-5.4
Rob Loe	403	4.8	2.8	1.1	114.6	111.8	2.8
Tai Webster	267	7.3	3.3	1.7	113.1	118.0	-4.9
Sean Bairstow	237	1.4	2.0	0.7	81.1	114.2	-33.1
Izayah Le'Afa	230	3.5	1.6	1.7	93.5	108.5	-15.0
Max Darling	199	2.8	1.4	0.4	116.6	114.4	2.2
Taylor Britt	145	1.4	0.8	1.1	70.7	110.9	-40.2
Jack Andrew	39	2.3	0.7	0.3	146.4	119.8	26.6
Tukaha Cooper	20	3.5	0.5	0.0	125.3	125.6	-0.3
Liam Judd	5	1.5	1.0	0.0	118.2	96.4	21.8
Alex McNaught	5	1.0	0.5	0.0	61.4	117.7	-56.3