Analysing Chris Wood’s Resurgent Burst Of Form Under Nuno Espirito Santo
Managerial changes happen all the time in the ruthless world of professional football. The average job-span of a Premier League manager is roughly two years and that’s clearly skewed by the few successful fellas at the top of the ladder. Hang about in the bottom half and you’ll be lucky to last the season. It’s no better in the divisions below. But, since transferring to Burnley in 2017, Chris Wood had not experienced a Premier League managerial change. Sean Dyche was there his whole time at Burnley. He was only a year at Newcastle and Eddie Hearn was a constant. Then Steve Cooper at Nottingham Forest. Plenty in his earlier years no doubt but not at all in his Premier League Starting Striker Era.
Things can change quickly in this game though, so when the upper management at Forest finally ran out of patience with the beloved Steve Cooper, it left Chris Wood in one of those sliding doors situations. His prospects massively depended on who they hired to replace Coops. Keeping it realistic, many managers simply would not have seen a use for an old fashioned style target man like Woodsy. Having struggled to get his Forest career rolling on a consistent basis under Coops, the man was vulnerable. It could have gone either way. Luckily NFFC hired Nuno Espirito Santo, the former Wolves manager (amongst others – let’s ignore his unglorious time at Spurs), and the good times have swiftly come again. Rejoice.
It probably helped that his only genuine rival for the number nine position, Taiwo Awoniyi, was out injured (yet again) when that switch happened – although that was already the case late in Cooper’s reign when Wood was having to play off the bench while two wingers got picked at striker ahead of him. It definitely helped that Wood’s only Premier League hat-trick in Burnley colours happened to come against Nuno’s Wolves team, meaning the new gaffer had already witnessed first-hand the full empowerment that the All Whites record goal-scorer can exude. Whatever the secret was, from the moment that the Portuguese manager stepped through those doors there has been a resurgent burst of form out of Christopher Wood.
It began with a 3-2 defeat against Bournemouth in the early hours of Christmas Eve NZT, a sure portent of joy (apart from the result, obviously). Dominic Solanke’s hat-trick stole the show, including a winner deep in stoppage time, but amidst that we did get a goal and an assist for Chris Wood. Nothing like the show he put on for Boxing Day though: when it was his turn to score a hatty, putting three past his old mates at Newcastle United in a 3-1 victory. A glorious afternoon. Curiously all three of those goals were scored with his left foot, the first was a tap-in but the second two came off the back of a newfound penchant for running/dribbling with a pair of delicious finishes at the end of them. He sent Dan Burn for a punnet of chips for the second and rounded the keeper for the third. You’d be forgiven for saying you didn’t realise he had it in him.
Funnily enough, he’d scored four goals in 1773 minutes for Newcastle in the Premier League yet here he scored three against them in the space of ninety. He’s also now one of 70 players with multiple EPL hatties, plus he joins Andy Cole, Marcus Bent, and Joshua King as players to have scored hat-tricks against their own former clubs. Cole’s was also against Newcastle, coincidentally.
Naturally, that was not level of productivity that he was going to be able to sustain every week... and he was merely solid in an impressive win against Manchester United, then in a disappointing 2-2 draw against third-tier Blackpool in the FA Cup. The replay against Blackpool was heading in a similar direction until The Woodsman popped up with a 110th minute winner in extra time. That’s the way to do it. Then he scored again in a 3-2 defeat against Brentford most recently, delivering an excellent performance in which he looked more enmeshed in the way his team played than he has since his Burnley days. So often since then it’s felt like his hard work went unrewarded due to a lack of mutual understanding with his teammates. There’s been none of that lately.
That makes it six goals and an assist in six games since Nuno Espirito Santo took over. What’s more is that he’s played every single minute. Injuries around him have influenced that... but when Cooper was on the brink of the sack he reverted to extra defensive teams that left Wood on the bench watching helplessly with no clear striker in the formation. The turnaround was immediate under Santo. He’s had more full games in the Premier League in the past month than he’d had in the previous season and a half. And you’ve gotta think that the 4-2-3-1 formation that Nuno’s been riding with has contributed to what he’s been able to do as well – not only the return of the target man striker role but also having three attacking players in support of him, including wingers who actually cross the ball sometimes. Big man need service.
The change from Cooper to Nuno hasn’t been drastic. Both managers like to set their team up solidly at the back with an idea towards counter-attacking footy. There have been tweaks in how Nuno wants to achieve those things but it’s been evolution not revolution. Nuno also seems to have clocked onto a few ideas of how to get the best out of the players he’s inherited and is building things out from there. Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi have had excellent starts under his guidance – MGW having worked with Nuno previously at Wolves. Though nobody’s been unleashed to a greater degree than The Woodchopper General himself.
So let’s break it down. Chris Wood played 15 times under Steve Cooper in the Premier League this season compared to only four matches under Nuno Espirito Santo thus far. But because of all the substitute gigs the difference in minutes is only 469 vs 360. Pretty similar... though we’ll split the numbers into per-ninety minute rates to balance it out further. Note there is a big difference between nine cameos of ten minutes each and one full game, but we work with what we’ve got. Here are those per-ninety numbers...
A lot of those areas have remained pretty similar, with the slight boosts in passes and touches likely to fluctuate from game to game given the small sample size. Those are total attempted passes, by the way, although his passing accuracy has been equally stable: 62.9% under Nuno, 61.7% under Coops – albeit that’s after he completed 25/30 against Brentford, otherwise he’d have been way down... which maybe goes to show that Wood’s passing accuracy isn’t particularly important. He can be effective with or without that aspect.
The shots have gone up and the goals have followed, as has been the case throughout his career (and with most strikers, to be fair). Every season in which he’s hit double-figure Prem goals, he’s also averaged at least two shots per ninety minutes. When he scored 14 in the 2019-20 campaign he peaked at 2.38 shots/90... so the Nuno version of the man ought to be thinking about touching some career-best terrain. There’s also been a dip in aerial contests yet that has coincided with a huge leap in aerial success, rising from 37.3% to 63.3%. That’s a combination of him being more commanding now that he’s found his confidence, and also his teammates being more specific about when they lump the ball his way. It’s all nicely integrated, rather than ‘kick it to the big fella’ being the lazy fallback option.
But merely doing the same stuff better isn’t enough to base an article around. Nah mate, the funky thing about the Chris Wood Purple Patch is that he’s also doing stuff that feels brand new under Nuno. For example, check out those Shot Creating Actions. It may be true that his passing accuracy doesn’t matter much, that he isn’t a guy who needs to drop deep and link up and get his touches. However it’s also true that he’s sneakily becoming a very effective passer when he needs to be.
That’s all because of how well he holds the ball up. He’s winning more of those aerials. He’s bringing the ball down and shielding it. He’s also now in a team where there seems to be a clearer mutual understanding of everyone’s roles in the attacking areas. There’s width and there are runners and Wood knows how to pick them out. He also has the awareness to spot the bloke in a pocket of space. Against Brentford he had four key passes, all from situations in or around the penalty area where he picked out a smart lay-off. We’re not talking about incisive forty-metre through balls here, just simple effective short passes to the open man. That’s all it requires.
As for the forty-metre through balls... lately he’s been the one running onto those. Nothing new about Woodsy operating off the shoulder of the last man but to see him running at defenders as well as running beyond them, now that’s a fresh leaf. He attempted one single take-on under Coops this season and has seven in four games since Nuno took over. This has to be a specific instruction. The change has been too sudden to be anything else (for context: Chris Wood, former Golden Flag champions, has only been called offside on two occasions all season!). Just look again at his second and third goals against Newcastle and you’ll see what’s up. He’s also had a couple of carries picking up the ball in transition, where in the past perhaps he’d have stopped and looked to pass. This is all part of that counter-attacking identity.
Obviously we’re not talking about the bro throwing down stepovers all of a sudden. Let’s not go nuts here. Defenders expect a guy like Woodsy to play with his back to goal and they also seem to expect him to look to shoot with his right foot. Traditionally that’s been the way to defend him - but then see what he did to his former teammate Dan Burn for what was later voted NFFC’s goal of the month for December...
The trick comes from shaping one way then turning the other. Nothing fancy. Burn was so sure that Wood was going to keep things simple that he got waxed by the drop of the shoulder. Graceful though this might have been, he’s not moving fast enough to throw a defender who was prepared to go either way – this is a move that works thanks to misdirection.
Wood had only scored 10 of his 55 goals in the Premier League with his left foot prior to this season. Yet of the eight he’s mustered so far in 2023-24, four have been lefties and the other four with his head. No right footers at all. He did score with his right against Blackpool in the FA Cup so don’t worry there’s nothing wrong. It’s simply that The Woodsman has begun to embrace the concept of symmetry in his finishing. Something a fella like Dan Burn, who supposedly knows his tendencies very well, was caught completely unawares by. And understandably so when you look at this...
Chris Wood Prior To 2023-24 (EPL)
Head: 18 goals from 22.96 xG (-4.96)
Right Foot: 26 goals from 22.09 xG (+3.91)
Left Foot: 10 goals from 13.56 XG (-3.56)
Chris Wood In 2023-24 (EPL)
Head: 4 goals from 2.20 xG (+1.80)
Right Foot: 0 goals from 0.22 xG (-0.22)
Left Foot: 4 goals from 2.98 xG (+1.02)
In other words, he’d never been a very effective finisher with his left foot before. So while one or two of these lefty goals were simple tap-ins, it still took a degree of confidence to open up for the shot on that side. Especially those last two against Newcastle where he specifically dribbled himself into those positions. Incredibly, only 3/21 shots this season have come via his right foot. Also if you’re counting and noticed that the goals don’t quite add up to his career tally, Wood did once score with his torso so that’s not represented here.
Some things change, some things stay the same. Chris Wood’s four headed goals are the most by any individual so far this EPL term... in fact with 22 headed goals in his career he’s now moved into the top ten all-time for the English Premier League. Forget the low expected goals conversion overall, headers are hard to control and Chris Wood is better than most at them. Not because he’s the most efficient but because he gets into those positions so often.
This is the version of Chris Wood that we’ve been seeing over the past month. He’s scoring goals. He’s holding the ball up powerfully. He’s creating for others with his lay-offs. He’s dribbling in those transitional moments. He’s letting his left foot fly. It’s only been a month and it’s going to take a lot more where this came from for a Nottingham Forest side that is facing possible points sanctions for financial fair play irregularities, which even under Nuno’s guidance has suffered a couple of worrisome defeats against teams in a similar position on the table. The club is in a tricky spot. But that’s nothing that Chris Wood can’t handle. Nobody relegates The Woodsman, though many have tried.
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