The Wellington Phoenix Wahine have been a team of constant progress and development since they joined the A-League, though perhaps it’s been slower progress and development than hoped for. An excessively youthful team made for a tough integration in year one, while the lack of a clinical striker halted their efforts in year two. Three managers in three years hasn’t helped that cause either, nor their nomadic home field advantage.

After consecutive wooden spoons, year three was supposed to be the one when things began to point towards a much more competitive Wellington Phoenix team. The Australian player quota was dropped, allowing them to bring in imports for the first time (without it being at the expense of locals), while they also found a welcoming home at Porirua Park. There was a newly distinct style of play – dubbed ‘Small Ball’ by those in the squad. They still retained a core of players who’d been around since day one, clearly ready to take things to the next level. The Academy system was pumping with the reserves now given automatic entry into the NZ National League, the same privilege as the blokes get.

An expanded season of 22 games also seemed to work to their benefit given how they’d started gently but finished strong in both previous campaigns. Not to mention how that expanded competition led to an expanded finals series of six teams rather than four. A spot in that top six was the stated aim of both players and management. That was the target. That was the goal.

The Quest For The Top Six

Buuuuut it didn’t quite happen. The Nix were in the mix until the penultimate weekend, slipping a wee bit too far down the table to be able to sustain that mission. This time they started brilliantly with four wins form their first six matches. They finished decently as well by winning three of their last five. But in between they caught short, with a nasty run of away fixtures exposing a massive disparity between home and away form. Only once did they lose by more than two goals, with nine of their defeats by a mere single goal, so they were almost always close. But regular injuries and perhaps a little too much rotation kept them from catching fire as they ultimately fell five points short of that target.

Yet it has to be said that an eighth-placed finish is still miles better than the last-placings they logged in years one and two. They may not have made it all the way to where they were trying to get but we still witnessed some significant strides forward. This was a team that could compete with pretty much anyone. This was a team that always had a threat in front of goal. When the passing game clicked they could be truly lovely to watch, and for once they had a deep enough squad to not only keep up the pressure for ninety minutes with impactful substitutions but to also have players emerge from outside of matchday squads to challenge for starting roles – as we saw from Alyssa Whinham and Michaela Robertson towards the end of the term.

What’s interesting about that selection of stats is you can see ways in which this team has made steady growth, and you can also see ways in which that growth hasn’t actually been as pronounced as it seems. Obviously the various profiles of the interchanging players makes a difference – one of the stats that didn’t make the cut was carries into the attacking third, which dropped drastically this season probably because Paige Satchell left. But then the goals and expected goals have risen by a healthy leap at the same time as they’ve gotten more clinical in front of goal. Still, there’s definitely a sense that they could have sustained their attacking pressure better, and they’re still allowing more shots than they take even if the gap is closing.

Of course those numbers are only comparing the Nix to the Nix. Where it really matters is how they compare to their opponents... and that big leap in goals per game still only had them ranked in the mid-table for the 2023-24 campaign. Same deal with the passing accuracy. They had the second fewest touches in the attacking third, fewer even than last-placed Adelaide, and no team made more defensive clearances this season. It wasn’t the backs-to-the-wall siege warfare of seasons gone by but they still had to do a lot more defending than they would have preferred.

When you look at it that way, you can see a team that was capable of making the top six... but only under the right circumstances. There remained a few too many holes in their game to feel like they’d been dealt a rough hand in missing out. That’s alright, a new benchmark has been set. It’s hard to call it a failure when this was still a record finish in so many areas. But next year we ought to be expect that benchmark to be raised further (especially as they enter a new season with a returning head coach for the first time).

That Home vs Away Disparity

There’s no hiding from the fact that this was why they didn’t reach the finals right here...

Welly Nix in Aotearoa:

L W W W D W W L W W

Welly Nix in Australia:

W L L L L L L L L L W L

You just can’t be doing them things and expecting to finish in the top half of the table. Granted, those of you with sharp eyes might notice the fact that there are two more games in the Aussie section than the NZ section. Also that they’re labelled ‘Aotearoa’ and ‘Australia’ rather than ‘Home’ and ‘Away’. That’s because one of their Aussie games was technically a home game – the Unite Round match against Central Coast in January (a 2-1 defeat). That makes some of the stats confusing but it was effectively another away game so we’ll classify it as thus.

Welly Nix in Aotearoa:

10 GM | 7 W | 1 D | 3 L | 22 GF | 12 GA | +10 GD | 22 PTS

1.70 xG/90 | 1.1 xGA/90 | +0.59 xG DIFF | 50.0% POSS

Welly Nix in Australia:

12 GM | 2 W | 0 D | 10 L | 15 GF | 23 GA | -8 GD | 6 PTS

1.39 xG/90 | 1.33 xGA/90 | +0.06 xG DIFF | 51.2% POSS

Absolutely baffling to look at that record and see that they lost 10/12 games and had a -8 goal difference... yet had a positive xG differential. The 3-1 win against Perth near the end helped things massively there, (though not as much the 3-0 vs Western Sydney at the start, which was only 1.1 vs 0.5 xG)... but there were also four separate away games in which they lost despite having the better of the expected goals.

The draw was cruel. Six of their first nine games were at home, from which they took 15 points and were looking fantastic for finals footy. Then came a spell of eight games out of nine on the road, one of the most brutal stretches imaginable in which one game in Wellington was swarmed by three in Sydney, three in Melbourne, one in Brisbane, and one in Perth. They won 2-0 against Canberra in the lone home game between Christmas Day and St Patrick’s Day, so they took care of that task at least. In between they had a postponed home game added to the one that was nicked for Unite Round (should note that the Welly Nix men had a scheduled away game in Unite Round so it balanced out as a club... even though it would’ve been much handier the other way around). That was how the cookie crumbled.

At first they were battling. Lots of first half leads that got away from them in those away games, lots of chances to score that could have dramatically altered their season. But after six straight away defeats all by single-goal margins, the injuries and international absences caught up with them as they were pumped 3-0 by Western United followed by an awful start to the match against Melbourne Victory who had them 4-0 down at half-time. They’d recover to only lose 5-3, saving some dignity, before a superb performance against an out-of-form Perth Glory team did briefly relight the finals candle... but then they lost at home to Sydney FC and results elsewhere went against them. The damage had been done.

What’s funny about that is they lost 1-0 to Melbourne City at home in week one, with Hannah Wilkinson scoring the goal (the only NZer to score against the Nix this season – unless you count Michaela Foster’s own goal against Perth), and a 3-0 win vs Western Sydney away in week two. The City loss was the only home match in which they were kept scoreless and the WSW one was the only away match in which they kept a clean sheet. In fact they scored multiple times in every other home game. They also averaged more possession away than they did at home... although those numbers fluctuated enough from game to game depending on opponents so that it’s a bit of an empty stat. You could argue that their attacking success at home was a product of their directness (Mariana Speckmaier as a striker who runs in behind, rather than holding the ball up/Macey Fraser’s willingness to shoot/etc) and that’s why they had less of the ball in those games: because they made use of it quicker. But the bigger picture remains the same. They simply could not find a way to get consistent points on the road.

Small Ball

Lots was made of the Small Ball idea while the Nix were winning (home) games early on. Paul Temple spoke about it often and players were quick to reference it. The media and fans latched onto it too. As Temple says, it’s a principle around operating in smaller spaces with smaller passes. Breaking through pressure with quick ball-movement and player-movement both. An exciting, ambitious approach to their football which was on bright display through those initial games.

Then... not so much. Like, if the phrase hadn’t caught on then you’d never have guessed it. The Small Ball idea was always more about how they moved through the midfield than how they built up from the back but the Nix launched more goal kicks long than any other team in the league. They did attempt the second-most short passes behind possession-dominant Melbourne City so that was some positive intent. Yet as confidence diminished during all those away games, they began to get more impatient and more direct. The support wasn’t there for those short passes. And, to be honest, the players weren’t always there for it either.

The Small Ball stuff requires slick touches and sharp movements. If we’re being harsh about it, it could be argued that Small Ball was less of a squad-wide strategy and more of a Macey Fraser strategy. She was the one who really got that train on the tracks. For a while there she was beginning to combine really nicely with Annalie Longo. Then Longo got injured and it was only when Alyssa Whinham and Fraser got to share the pitch some more that we got back to those levels. Hope Breslin had her moments of Small Ball gold. But that was about it.

Thankfully, they rediscovered their mojo in the latter stages and there were plenty of smart moments in that final game against Western Sydney where it all seemed to click again. Goes to show that it’s cool to have an identity but it takes work to uphold. They went away from it when they struggled and they struggled when they went away from it.

What Might Have Been

Here’s one for ya: The Wellington Phoenix used 27 different players this ALW season, more than any other team. The 27th and final was Aimee Danieli who was subbed on for a professional debut with ten minutes remaining in the last match. They began with a squad of 22, comprised of 18 seniors and 4 scholarship players, although Aimee Danieli was also added to their teamlist as a third goalie on amateur terms for #23. From there they lost Chloe Knott who abdicated her contract, whilst also dealing with season-ending injuries suffered around same time by Grace Wisnewski and Marisa van der Meer.

Isabel Cox was recruited with their final import spot to replace Knott on the roster (even inheriting her 7 jersey). After making her 11th appearance, Manaia Elliott was elevated from a scholarship to a senior contract, meanwhile Tiana Jaber was also added as an injury replacement mid-season plus at the same time they brought in Helena Errington to fill that fourth scholarship spot out (although Elliott’s 11th game was the week after Errington’s debut so not entirely sure how that works... doesn’t really matter). Rebecca Lake and Annalie Longo also missed the last month with injuries.

Add in various niggly knocks throughout the season as well as a dash of illness, plus one match with five internationals missing, and you can see how they ended up using so many players. And also why they were never able to find consistent combinations. The centre-backs were Barry and MVDM, then Lake comes in, then Jaber comes in. Midfield began with Taylor, Knott, Fraser. Longo and Breslin got a bunch of starts. Daisy Brazendale, the youngest player in the squad, looked really good there in a few games. Michaela Foster played some CDM. So did Lake as a late sub in a few early matches. Helena Errington and Alyssa Whinham each got game-time there. It was all over the show with teamlists changing drastically from week to week. Can’t help but feel that was a major source of the SheNix’s inconsistency.

They also missed certain absent players more than they might have expected. The reason Breslin played so much midfield is that they’d picked a squad with Wisnewski and Knott expected to be important players and they didn’t even play 500 minutes between them. Wisnewski was a player highlighted on this very website as being on the brink of a massive season. Alas, that did not happen... though the gem discovered by Kate Taylor’s evolution into a defensive midfielder helped make up for that loss with another hard-tackler. Also, Macey Fraser’s tackling is sneakily fantastic – she’s way more than just a creator. But while Knott initially felt like she might be stuck in between, as someone not defensive enough to be a CDM and not creative enough to play as an eight or ten... that all-around skill set ended up being something they really longed for. Not to mention her leadership and experience on the pitch and off the pitch.

However it was Marisa van der Meer who made the main difference, and for a very specific reason. MVDM did her ACL on tour with the Football Ferns, a long-overdue call-up that sadly led to knee surgery rather than an international debut. Last season she made the switch from fullback to centre-back, initially to cover for an injury to Taylor but then she ended up staying there because of how well it worked. Predominantly because she wins headers. She wins headers in both penalty areas. Mackenzie Barry is okay in the air but she doesn’t challenge for many of them (only 16 aerial duels all season). Rebecca Lake was decent. Michaela Foster is below average. Tiana Jaber didn’t win a single aerial duel at all. Kate Taylor is good but was mostly playing midfield. MVDM was crucial defending crosses and set pieces. She was also crucial attacking them, scoring three goals last season, hence why Michaela Foster’s corner kicks weren’t nearly as effective this year. This Nix team conceded way too many goals from crosses and set pieces that Marisa van der Meer might well have been able to prevent.

Heaps More Notes

The Phoenix had a goal difference of +8 when Kate Taylor was on the pitch. She did miss the win away to Perth, but the Nix lost the other four games she was absent for. All of them were away games. The worst goal difference was -6 for Alyssa Whinham, though that probably reflects her getting her opportunity during the end of all those away games while others were unavailable. Whinham’s goal contributions spoke for themselves, while she also brought some physicality that we’d not seen from her before. Promising stuff.

There were 15 goals scored by imports and 19 goals scored by NZers for this team. Emma Main sneaking up to five with a double in the last match would have been good for Golden Boot last season. Main apparently had a nasty bout of covid early in the season which affected her fitness, hence she didn’t play a full ninety minutes until doing so in two of the last three matches (cramping up late in the last game but they left her on to chase a hatty). Happy to see her goal contribution rate carry on through a full season and of all the uncapped kiwis in the A-League, she’s probably now next in line for a Football Ferns call-up.

All three of Macey Fraser’s goals were scored from outside the penalty area. She did take a lot of shots for those goals though, 50 of them in total, with an average distance from goal of 26.8 yards (the furthest of anyone in the ALW who attempted 25+ shots). The Fraser Shuffle is already legendary. Next step is to add a few more variations. Drift into the area. One-twos. That kinda thing. Half of her shots were on target but way too many were straight at the keeper so placement is the other work-on. Nobody can stop her getting those shots away so if she can direct them too... seriously, ten goals next season is not out of the question. If she can direct those shots.

Most passes into the final third: Macey Fraser 105, Hope Breslin 48, Kate Taylor 48, Michaela Foster 48, Annalie Longo 46. Most progressive passes: Fraser 130, Breslin 64, Foster 63, Taylor 61, Davidson 57. The levels to which Macey Fraser was pulling strings, mate.

If you’re interested in some end of season award ideas, check out this Substack newsletter from last Friday which has all of that plus plenty more because we always cram in extra kiwi sporting goodness in those things - be sure to sign up if you haven’t already.

The Kate Taylor as Defensive Midfielder was a funky project from day one. KT’s certainly got the skill set as a hard tackler with a big passing range and a strong engine. That passing range has tended to be rather inconsistent in the past so a midfield stint would surely help her iron out a few creases, whilst also getting used to operating under more immediate pressure. All good professional development for a move overseas someday, even if she does move back to centre-back when that happens. That still feels like her best fit at a higher level... but she’s done well enough in the midfield to start playing there for the Football Ferns as well. In fact, with Ria Percival now retired she’s arguably the backup CDM behind Malia Steinmetz – combine that with her defensive versatility and that could just earn her a ticket to the Olympics. Now, suddenly, it’s not so sure that she’ll ever need to revert to CB. Bit of a mastermind move from Paul Temple there.

New Zealanders who made Welly Nix debuts this season: Macey Fraser, Annalie Longo, Daisy Brazendale, Manaia Elliott, Aimee Danieli, Ella McMillan, Olivia Ingham & Helena Errington. For all except Longo those were also professional debuts, let alone A-League debuts.

No doubt there’ll be heaps of Wellington Phoenix Academy players involved when the U17 World Cup rolls around later in the year, but the U20 World Cup is going to have senior Nix players too. Zoe McMeeken, Manaia Elliott, Aimee Danieli, Ella McMillan, and Helena Errington were all involved in qualifying (Errington won the Golden Ball), while it’s hard to see Daisy Brazendale missing that squad after what she showed she’s capable of in the A-League. Olivia Ingham will also be in contention having recovered from injury.

The import situation is funky enough that it’s section has been cut so it can be expanded into a whole other article. Suffice it to say that Mariana Speckmaier was superb. Isabel Cox and Rylee Foster were very good, albeit with some asterisks (Cox only playing half a season, Foster looking worse when compared to other keepers in the league). Hope Breslin was all over the place with moments of brilliance mixed with some sloppy stuff, though she did have to play out of position at times. And Hailey Davidson was rock solid but only rock solid. Very dependable yet did little above and beyond that, offering next to nothing in attack. They should absolutely be trying to get Specky back, and potentially Cox as well. But the other three it depends on how the rest of the squad is shaping up.

As things stand, there are six players under contract for next season: Mackenzie Barry, Macey Fraser, Zoe McMeeken, Manaia Elliott... plus scholarship deals for Daisy Brazendale and Olivia Ingham. Heaps more to be done. The imports we’ve mentioned. The locals you’d think will mostly be open to returning but we do have to remember that these are ambitious players who want to be making national team squads and that’s going to require overseas moves at some stage. Someone like Kate Taylor, for example, has had three years of development at the Nix and might feel like it’s time to crunch some tackles in Europe or America. The Olympics following on from the World Cup last year means that the best Nix players will have gotten plenty of time in the shop window. That applies to someone like Macey Fraser too... what’d be funky there is if the Nix would scoop a transfer fee in that hypothetical situation. Either way, it’s doubtful they’d stand in the way if Fraser got a call from, say, a WSL club.

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