Notes From The Wellington Phoenix’s Soggy Last-Gasp Win vs Melbourne Victory
There was wind, there was rain, and there was the Wellington Phoenix. There were defensive blocks, there were more defensive blocks, there was a begrudging acceptance that a draw was probably a fair result on the basis of the game... and then there was Finn Surman. Or, more accurately, Finn Surman and Oskar van Hattum because we cannot overlook the bloke who both won that decisive free kick and also swung an absolutely gorgeous whip of a delivery into the area from which Surman scored a dramatic late winner.
Last week the Nix were defeated by a stoppage time goal, this time they triumphed thanks to one. They beat third-placed Melbourne Victory 1-0 thanks to that 90+5th minute Finn Surman special – an iconic moment in this team’s campaign and potentially a legendary one in the club’s history depending on how these next couple of weeks go.
Central Coast did do the business one day later when they beat Western United 2-0 to remain in first place thanks to the tiebreaker... however that match began a run of five games in 15 days for the Mariners which includes a flight to Kyrgyzstan this week to face Abdish-Ata Kant in the AFC Cup. On paper, CCM should win both of their remaining A-League games (Adelaide at home, Newcastle away) but with all that travel and when they’re competing on multiple fronts: easier said than done. It’s not like they get to face Perth Glory or anything either. The Victory game was the toughest remaining (regular season) outing for the Phoenix, who don’t have to make any midweek trips to Central Asia. This minor premiership race remains very much up for grabs, even if it’s no longer in Wellington’s control.
Regardless, this win against the Victory also clinched a top-two finish for the first time in the Wellington Phoenix’s history. Cannot finish lower than second. Guaranteed bye through week one of the finals. Unprecedented areas. Wonderful to experience. Capital activities. Ka pai, ka pai.
Finn Surman, You Little Beauty (+OVH)
First things first, that goal was initially credited as an own goal when it happened live and you could sorta see why on the replay. No doubt that Surman got his head to the cross first but there’s a deflection off the defender and it’s not easy to judge whether Surman’s initial effort was travelling on target or not. In those situations it seems like the path of least resistance is to let the attacker have the credit since they want it and they defender does not. Keeps everyone happy even if it ain’t so clear cut. However it is the job of the authorities to try and make the quote-unquote “correct” decision irrespective of people’s emotions so fair enough. Gotta do your job. Thankfully the A-League’s own website is now crediting it as Surman’s goal...
That’s Surman’s first goal in the A-League. Doubt it’ll be his last given how powerful he is in the air, just a matter of turning that defensive dominance into attacking precision (which, to be fair, is not as simple as you’d think – a defender tries to head the ball anywhere except the goal, an attacker is aiming for nothing but the goal... not every good aerial defender gets the hang of that seemingly obvious adjustment). Only way Surman’s not serving up multiple goals next season is if some European team was paying close attention to the Olympics in an effort to find themselves their own Tyler Bindon. The form that both Bindon and Surman have been in during 2024, each in their breakout professional seasons, is one of the most encouraging signs for All Whites footy in quite a while.
It was also Oskar van Hattum’s fourth assist of the campaign. Or... third depending on how you quantify winning penalties. But he does have a goal as well – in fact he’s got three goal contributions in his last four appearances despite playing off the bench in all of them, adding up to just 72 minutes (plus some stoppage time tbf). Exactly what you want to see from a substitute: being able to come on and affect the game. Here he was asked to play as a sort of hybrid wing-back mirroring the role that Ben Old had been playing on the other side... and he continued to deliver the goods, winning the free kick then delivering the cross himself.
The Ben Old efficiency boost has been fantastic (although not so much in this game as he missed several good opportunities due to sloppy shooting or hesitant decisions) but OVH has found an efficiency boost of his own in a more subtle manner. One which it wasn’t so obvious that he had in him in comparison to the natural explosive talent of Oldy. Brilliant work from Van Hattum making him yet another player to experience a career breakthrough under the tutelage of Giancarlo Italiano.
Remember that OVH’s assist to Old last week was the first All-Academy assist plus goal move this season. Now there’s been a second one and Van Hattum was involved again. Superb.
Say, let’s have a look at this alternate angle of the ball hitting the back of the net...
Packing Out That Stadium
The only thing missing as that Finn Surman goal flew in was another ten-thousand-plus fans in attendance to really take the roof off of Sky Stadium... but the weather kinda spoiled that dream. However there is still one more home game and if all goes to plan (and CCM drop points this week against a Phoenix victory) then that could be the game when the Phoenix clinch the Premiers’ Plate. What’s more is that they’re not far off a record season attendance average either. 20,890 will do the trick, according to the bro.
Domey spoke earlier in the season about a few attendance myths, stating that 10,000 fans is about the benchmark for the club financially. Depending on how many free tickets or promotions are going on, they might be able to break even with matchday costs at 6-7k but 10k is about where that becomes a guarantee. Above that it’s pretty much pure profit. Like, to the extent that a sellout home game during the regular season, just one, would potentially pay for damn near the entire season’s running costs... imagine that. This isn’t just business talk – it has a direct effect on the calibre of imports they can afford to attract.
But here’s the kicker: Finals games are the domain of the APL. When it comes to postseason football, the profits go back to the league instead of the club, hence as massive as a sellout home finals game would be for the club’s chances of success on the pitch, it’s that homer against Macarthur on Saturday 27 April at 7.15pm which will get the accountants drooling. Anzac Day is on the Thursday. Take Friday off work and make it a long weekend then get yourself to Wellywood. Hell yeah, amigos!
David Dome speaking to Stuff in February: “When you’re getting 6000 people, you’re losing maybe $30,000 to $40,000. If you have 8000, 9000, then all of the sudden you’re making $20,000 or $30,000. That’s a $60,000 to $70,000 swing, which is a massive difference, and if you extrapolate that over a whole season, 10 or 11 home games. Imagine if we could do that through a whole season - or sell out once. When you get to the final series, the money goes to the managing body, in this case APL, though there are discussions going on about how much that’s going to change this year. If we get to the finals series and sell out Sky Stadium, we're not making anything out of that, that's going to the central body, which is fine, because there are a lot of costs that they cover from the centre. Imagine if all those people, the diehard fans and the ones at the margins, turned up for one home game, instead of coming to a finals game - the last game of the season or the last couple of games. It would make a massive amount of difference to the club.”
More Blocks Than A LEGO Set
Take a peek at the shot chart from this Phoenix vs Victory encounter...
Nix are in yellow, of course. You can guess that from the fact they had fewer shots because that’s normally how they operate. Especially against Victory, whom they famously failed to get a single shot on target against in an away fixture earlier this season... yet still drew 1-1. No surprises that it was a high xG chance which led to their lone goal on Friday night. Victory had nearly twice as many shots but the Nix had more Expected Goals. 20 shots for 1.19 xG for the visitors, 11 shots for 1.46 xG for the hosts.
That’s all par for the course with Giancarlo Italiano’s Phoenix who allow lots of shots but very few goals. Many of those shots are from outside the penalty area where they post less of a threat. Feels like this gets talked about every week but it remains the key aspect of the team’s defensive identity so... yeah. That’s why. But it’s not all shots that fly wildly off target or straight at Alex Paulsen. The main reason those efforts are so ineffective is because of two very courageous centre-backs who are bringing back the Steven Taylor Experience by throwing themselves in front of everything. Take another look at that shot chart and notice how the light blue arrows on Melbourne’s side represent blocked shots.
Melbourne Victory attempted 21 shots in this game. 15 of them were blocked. All but four Nix players managed to get in the way of at least one effort. Nobody has blocked more shots than Finn Surman this season and Scott Wootton is third in the ALM. It’s a sign of a team that’s fighting for each other, that gets men behind the ball and keeps them there until the job is done. But even by their own high standards the quantity of blocked shots in this game was amazing.
One For Old Times
The Best Goalkeeper In The A-League
Chiefy was asked recently whether his goalkeeper Alex Paulsen was the best in the competition. Like most coaches in that position when asked such a leading question, he responded in the affirmative to support his lad. He also used the opportunity to say something very positive about the forgotten man in the Wellington Phoenix squad.
Giancarlo Italiano: “Yes I think he’s the best goalkeeper in the league. [That’s not remarkable] for me, because I’ve seen what he’s about. I’ve seen him from day one. It was just, you know, matching the potential to performance. I also say, look, he’s been great but I think the driving force behind him is a very good number two and Jack Duncan has really, really pushed him. I don’t think AP has had the ability to breathe and rest on his laurels because he’s got a number two that’s really come up. That’s credit to Jack, he’s been great for the group. Healthy competition drives performance.”
That’s an important thing to remember because those second choice goalies do exist in a weird place. Duncan was a new signing this year and he’s not played a single minutes. Just as Paulsen didn’t play a single minute behind Oli Sail last season. There were some murmurs when Duncan was signed about whether bringing in a veteran Australian gloveman might stunt the opportunities for Paulsen further... months later we can see those were very unfounded worries. However, Duncan’s quality as someone who is probably good enough to be a starting keeper for at least a couple of teams in the A-League is such that Paulsen knew exactly the high-watermark he had to reach in order to be this team’s first choice GK. He’s reached that and then some, absolutely exceeding expectations, but Italiano is right that Duncan deserves credit for his part in launching AP to where he is now.
And where is he now? Well The Chief already told you: he’s the best goalkeeper in the A-League. Alex Paulsen has 10 clean sheets from 25 games, playing every minute for the team with the best defensive record in the comp. Only Danny Vukovic of CCM has more cleanies with 11 of them. But Paulsen has made roughly 30 more saves than Vuk, whose team allows the fewest shots against them. With 107 saves overall, AP is third behind Filip Kurto with 124 (Macarthur) and Ryan Scott with 112 (Newcastle). Decent from those two except that they also concede a lot. In excess of 40 for each of them while Paulsen’s leaked just 25 goals from maximum minutes. Save percentages then? That’s a healthy lead for Alex Paulsen... and Goals Prevented (which takes xG into account) sees AP surge even further out in front.
Best. Goalkeeper. In. The. A-League.
There were other funky aspects to that game. The return of Alex Rufer was a big deal as we all expected. They were doing something new from corner kicks too with the three main targets all standing on the back post then running back into the target area. Then there was the way that Sam Sutton was picked in a back four but then dropped into a three when the team was in possession, so that Ben Old could get wide into a sort of wing-back position. That idea was covered in scout team fingerprints. Chief and the crew must’ve felt there was something that Old’s pace could exploit in those areas, perhaps also preferring the security of three CBs against the Victory press. Something like that. Old did create quite a lot too... he just didn’t have his goal-scoring boots on. Or maybe he did but they weren’t waterproof.
The lesson there is not about whether that’s a tactic we’ll continue to see. It’s about how this team adjusts from opponent to opponent, finding small but substantial tweaks in their own system in order to attack perceived weaknesses in how the other team plays. But we’re already 2200 words deep into this bad boy and the night is no longer young.
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