Most people who’ve been following the Wellington Phoenix throughout this season, who’ve been aware of how superb their defence is, and of how they’ve travelled, especially those who’ve watched the three previous meetings with Melbourne Victory this season (or simply had a geeze through our preview), would have probably have predicted this nil-all draw ahead of time. There may have been some surprises in how it unfolded... but the outcome was preeeetty much what was always destined to happen.

And that is a very good thing for the Wellington Phoenix because it means that it’s all going to come down to next Saturday night at Sky Stadium in Wellington. In front of a crowd that remains on track for a sellout. We’re talking in excess of thirty thousand fans cheering on the team with the best home record in the competition. With a place in the grand final on the line. That’s a situation that every coach on the planet would gobble up without a moment of hesitation.

There’s been some chat about why they bother having two-legged semi-finals in the A-League, admittedly much of it from Phoenix fans whose team had never previously advanced this far under this finals format. Like, why don’t they simply sort it out in a single night with the higher-ranked team having home field advantage? The reasons is probably so that you don’t finish first on the ladder and then, after your week off, get booted one-and-done from the whole postseason picture. But if you do prefer the single-legged approach then that’s effectively what we’ve got coming up next. 90 minutes, possibly 120, possibly with penalties afterwards, to determine who’ll be advancing for a shot at a championship.

The Tactical Arm-Wrestle

“My plan was to come here and try win 4-0 so it didn’t quite work out like that.”

That was how Chiefy put it afterwards in the press conference. He’s right in that it didn’t work out like that but don’t think it was because they parked the bus. Nothing was ever going be done to compromise the defensive solidity that has made them such a special team this year yet this could have been a far more conservative team if he’d wanted.

There was no back three. We still saw plenty of that build-up shape we’ve been getting with Sam Sutton tucking in and Ben Old sliding into a wing-back area, though the basic defensive shape was more like a 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield. Bozhidar Kraev alongside Kosta Barbarouses up top. David Ball sitting in behind them. Ben Old and Nico Pennington with Alex Rufer behind them. Then the standard back four.

They’d switch that up later on (through a procession of paper notes) but this was how they began. And for the first ten minutes or so the Nix were really dominating. That stemmed mostly from Tim Payne getting into great areas on the right, with one excellent low cross going close to being converted by Kraev until Jason Geria stepped in and cleared it. A few lobs over the top as well. However the arm-wrestle alternated after that with the Victory dragging things into the other half, a bit more in line with expectations. Also in line with expectations was that the best they could muster from those situations were long shots directed straight at Alex Paulsen. All in all, the plan was working for the Phoenix. Sturdy at the back. Capable of creating that one big chance. And, crucially for an inexperienced team, they were fully up for the challenge.

Thing is, Tony Popovich didn’t walk through that tunnel for the first time yesterday. The maestro had some tricks up his own sleeve making four changes from the eleven that began the Melbourne Derby. Obviously Zinedine Machach was suspended, so in came ex-Nixer Roly Bonevacia for a rare start. Meanwhile Jordi Valadon came in for Jake Brimmer, just the second start of the season for Valadon. Bonevacia played 188 minutes during the regular season. Valadon played 244 minutes. The more sentimental option might have been to give the retiring Leigh Broxham a crack but he’s only made five substitute appearances all season so that wasn’t happening. He did come off the bench to miss a penalty in the shootout against City last week but he dropped out of the squad altogether for this match.

The other two changes were Salim Khelifi and Nishan Velupillay getting the nods on the wings in place of Daniel Arzani and Ben Folami. Velupillay did score the all-important equalising goal last week so that was duly rewarded with a spot in the eleven. This also probably had something to do with rotation in light of the intensity of finals fixtures and the rematch next week, as well as perhaps setting Arzani up to dribble at tired legs later in the game. Arzani has not played ninety minutes at all this season despite appearing in every single match.

With the game in the balance and neither team really creating much (Pennington had a couple of half-chances with volleys in the first half, both off target, both probably better suited to other players), the coaching duel pivoted into which of the two would make the more effective adjustments. Italiano’s never one to rush towards his bench so it was Popovich who played his hand first, subbing on Brimmer, Arzani, and Folami all at once after an hour. Chief responded with Oskar van Hattum for David Ball five minutes later though it wouldn’t be until the last quarter of an hour that Oskar Zawada and Youstin Salas would be seen (both still nursing injuries).

That just wasn’t enough time for those two imports to make a difference... and Chiefy himself admitted that the Victory subs effectively nullified his own team’s endgame by changing the dynamic. He also added that he was a tad disappointed they weren’t able to grab a goal in the latter stages, with tired legs preventing them from quite taking advantage of a more end-to-end contest during those final phases.

So it goes. They still kept it tight at the back for yet another clean sheet. More than held their own in an away tie against an experienced squad with one of the most successful managers in competition history at a ground they traditionally struggle for results at. It was a very good performance with the potential to become a magnificent performance. They didn’t manage the magnificence... but their fate remains entirely within their own control so that’s mission accomplished from leg one.

Captain Alex

What a lad. Alex Rufer with a captain’s knock in one of the biggest games the club has ever been a part of (realistically, the Nix have made the preliminary final once before so this is probably ranked second and will drop to third on the weekend when a new number one emerges... which itself will hopefully only last for one week before being surpassed).

Rufer wasn’t quite flawless. He could have been more ambitious with the ball and should have gotten more touches than he did. A few times he won possession only to lose it again (or vice versa). Not to mention a silly yellow card near the end... his eighth of the season which would usually mean a one-game suspension but the count resets for the finals. That was his only foul committed but he did get dribbled past a couple of times.

But that’s not the point. You chase down the raw stats and it looks like a so-so performance from Rufer. You watch the game, however, and what he was doing was nothing short of immense. The ground that he covered. The challenges he threw himself into. Those were the actions of a leader at the front of the vanguard, basically demanding that his teammates follow his example. It’s not always about the stats. There are things that Opta can’t measure and those include the intangibles that Alex Rufer brought against the Victory on Sunday.

He wasn’t alone either. Look at the way that Kosta Barbarouses moves off the ball, how many sprints he makes during a game, then look at that chase down he made against Daniel Arzani near the end which allowed Sam Sutton to get across and make the tackle, breaking up a dangerous counter attack. Kosta had been running all day. One of the older guys in the squad and he still put that shift in. Not because he had a chance of winning the ball himself, but because he knew that he could guide the attacker down a channel which would make it easier for his teammate. Selfless and inspirational.

(As to whether Rufer is at risk of missing a potential grand final if he gets booked again next week, let us know if you can figure that out. Football Australia has some regos online but they specifically state that they don’t apply to the A-League and the A-League’s own pdf of regulations seems to have been lost in all of their website updates/rebrands/shenanigans. The most recent document that’s available is from 2016 and still refers to the “Hyundai A-League” so take it with a grain of salt when it says that the barrier is three yellows for a finals suspension. Especially because that’s impossible for a top-two team under the current format. But if it’s been changed, it’s been changed the same way that the wins/goal different tie-breaker was changed: without anybody knowing).

No Substitute For Experience

This is the fifth time in six years that the Wellington Phoenix have made the A-League finals following a four-year drought before that. This is becoming a pretty regular occurrence... yet the amount of times they’ve had to rebuild their squad during that time, on top of how many young players have broken through this season, means that there were not a lot of finals games within these ranks as they lined up at AAMI Park.

There’s Kosta Barbarouses, of course. One of the most experienced A-Leaguers there’s ever been and a fella who is attempting to win a championship at a fourth different club. Beyond him... not much. In fact the only bloke in the team aside from Kosta who has played an ALM finals game for another club is Jack Duncan who made one finals appearance with the Jets in 2018 and went off injured in the first half. Replaced by Glen Moss, coincidentally. Jack Duncan has not actually debuted for the Phoenix yet. Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues beat him to it.

Therefore whatever these fellas know about such games, they learned it at this club. These are the players who’ve appeared in the previous four (one-and-done) finals matches. Starters in formation and then subs in brackets. Current players are bolded.

2022-23 (Lost 2-0 to Adelaide)

Sail; Elliot, Payne, Wootton, Mauragis; Rufer, Ugarkovic; Barbarouses, Sasse; Ball, Zawada

(Kraev, Lewis, van Hattum)

2021-22 (Lost 1-0 to Western Utd)

Sail; Payne, Wootton, Surman, Sutton; Lewis, Pennington; Sandoval, Piscopo; Ball, Hooper

(Old, Sotirio, McGarry, Waine)

2019-20 (Lost 1-0 to Perth Glory)

Marinovic; Elliot, Taylor, Hudson-Wihongi, Cacace; Steinmann, Devlin; Piscopo, Davila; Sotirio, Ball

(McCowatt, Rufer)

2018-19 (Lost 3-1 to Melbourne Victory)

Kurto; Lowry, Taylor, Durante, Kopczynski, Cacace; Mandi, Rufer; Burgess, Williams, Krishna

(Singh, Sheridan, Elliot)

Even last season’s crew only featured five players who also started this time around, plus a couple other subs (although funnily enough the back four on Sunday was exactly the same as Ufuk Talay picked two years ago vs Western).

Prior to this match, Barbarouses had made 18 finals appearances. His 19th has now taken him clear into fifth all-time. The entire rest of this Wellington Phoenix squad had 19 between them – Rufer and Ball tied for the most with three each – and that’s without even considering the fact that Giancarlo Italiano was coaching on this stage for the first time as the main man. This would not have been an excuse had they wet the bed in Melbourne but moving that number up from 19 finals appearances plus Kosta to 33 finals appearances plus Kosta will absolutely make a difference in their ability to own the moment next week.

Also just quietly... this result did snap a six-game losing streak in the A-League finals for the club, one that dates all the way back to 2012. The all-time finals WPX record now reads: 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses. If they can double that win tally over the upcoming fortnight then that’d be swell. They will have to break what’s now a four-game run without scoring a finals goal though... the last finals goal this club scored was Roy Krishna’s strike against Victory in the Marko Rudan season.

The Other Game

It was almost Giancarlo Italiano vs Ufuk Talay in these semi-finals. Apprentice vs Mentor. Sydney FC would have been the Nix’s opponents had Melbourne City hung on against Victory... but that didn’t happen so it was Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC instead. This following CCM winning the AFC Cup after beating Al-Ahed 1-0 in the final thanks to a wonderful late Alou Kuol goal (84’), no less than they deserved from yet another tireless performance. You keep waiting for this Mariners team to show the fatigue of competing on multiple fronts in multiple continents and it just does not happen. Meanwhile Sydney FC had cruised past Macarthur 4-0 so shout out to Uffie for his first finals win and the first finals goals scored by a team he’d coached. The Nix lost to nil in all three of his previous attempts.

There were only four days between the AFC Cup final in Lebanon and this ALM finals game in Sydney. It’s also the case that Sydney FC had beaten CCM twice already this season and neither of them were in that four game losing streak that they began with. In fact, Sydney FC are the only team they’ve lost to since that stink start. You can possibly count the Aussie Cup match between the pair back in August too, where Sydney FC advanced via penalties. That was reason to be wary for CCM... and 25 minutes into this game that wariness was amplified when Joel King thumped one in through traffic with Sydney’s first shot on target. Interesting. Very interesting.

Sydney FC couldn’t handle the lifestyle though. It wasn’t only that the Mariners keep on getting back up like a horror movie villain that refuses to die. Sydney FC also did their best to throw this one away. They conceded the equaliser in stoppage time of the first half when Josh Nisbett pounced on the rebound after Andrew Redmayne spilled a long shot. Last few seconds of the half. Horrid time to concede. Ten minutes into the second spell they gave away a penalty at the end of a sequence that had defenders slipping and sliding all over the shop floor. Mikael Doka buried that for 2-1. Five minutes afterwards, Jack Rodwell went recklessly into a challenge with his lead foot raised and was sent off after a VAR review. That wasn’t all, they ultimately ended with nine men after Corey Hollman was marched with ten to go. Second yellow (little bit harsh, to be fair). Sydney did think they’d equalised through a Rhyan Grant header but there was an offside in there.

2-1 to Central Coast after the away leg and there are no more midweek Asian excursions to slow them down. Not that those ever slowed them down. CCM have won six in a row in all comps and are undefeated in their last nine with the only draw being an away leg AFC Cup game that they overcame with ease in the return leg. 15 wins from their last 18 matches in all comps. They’ve been flawless down the stretch, and that form is what it took for them to keep the Wellington Phoenix away from the Premiers’ Plate. We must doff our caps. Still, Sydney FC will get one more chance and there’s only one goal in it. We’re poised in both ties, folks.

Quick note to say that if you rate the yarns on TNC, it’d help immensely if you supported the work on Patreon, with a Paid Substack, or on Buy Me A Coffee – only if you can spare it, of course

Also goes hard if you whack an ad, and do all those like/share/comment things

Keep cool but care