Previewing The Wellington Phoenix’s A-League Semi-Final vs Melbourne Victory
It will be the Wellington Phoenix against the Melbourne Victory for a place in the 2024 A-League Men’s Grand Final. Sunday night at 6pm NZT is the first leg over in Melbourne. We know this now, after the Victory prevailed in a bonkers elimination derby vs Melbourne City.
MVC played with ten men from the 37th minute onwards after Zinedine Machach was marched for a kick-out. By then they were already 1-0 down after a Sanuel Souprayen goal (29’) which could have been even worse had Paul Izzo not saved an earlier penalty from Tolgay Arslan. Izzo continued to make saves as City bossed this thing right up until the 88th minute when Nishan Velupillay equalised for Victory. Curtis Good was sent off for MCY near the end of an exhausting extra time period. Then Izzo saved three more penalties in the shootout as well as scoring one himself and Melbourne Victory somehow advanced. Madness.
Sydney FC had battered Macarthur 4-0 on the previous night so that left the Phoenix knowing they’d either play Sydney or Victory in the semis, depending on whether Victory advanced that far. They did and that’s what’s happening. Not the Macarthur match-up that the Nix really wanted but probably a better outcome than facing Sydney FC who are one of the rare teams to have actually beaten the Phoenix this season.
So it’s Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC in one two-legged semi-final and Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City in the other. These are the games that players dream of. These are the games that fans thrive upon (early signs suggest we’re heading towards a sellout in the Nix’s home leg). For the Welly Nix, this has been a decade in waiting. That’s how long since they last won a finals game, since they last advanced this far. It’s been nine years since their last home finals match. They have never competed in a grand final. We’ve known this opportunity was coming for much of the past season and now here it is in stark and potent reality. Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory. Lessssgo.
Past Meetings This Season
The Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory have met three times this season. The first of those meetings was the only away game of the three. This was the infamous match in which the Nix had zero shot attempts yet somehow drew 1-1. An own goal from a Tim Payne cross just before half-time was enough to salvage a point after Ryan Teague’s 13th minute opener... but, let’s be honest, it was an ugly game to experience. The Victory had the Nix camped up in their own penalty area for long stretches, something they did in all three games except this time it was without an escape route. However, as has been the case all season, that Phoenix defence was up to the task. Crowding out any space in front of the goal. Making clearances on top of clearances on top of clearances. Blocking shots. Winning challenges. You know how it goes.
As for the goal they scored, it began with Lukas Kelly-Heald taking possession at left-back. Claims of a foul ignored by the ref. LKH linked with Nico Pennington and Bozhidar Kraev before Oskar Zawada dropped in to collect the ball centrally inside his own half. OZ spread it wide to the right where Tim Payne ran onto the pass and then kept running, committing a defender on the edge of the area before feeding Kosta Barbarouses who’d peeled around him into space on the wing. Low cross turned into his own net by a sliding Damien Da Silva. It was a rare attacking moment in that match yet a shimmering flowing move from one side to the other, and from one end to the other.
That first meeting had come in the fourth week of the season back when we were still wondering if the bubble might burst after a positive start. It did not and it still has not. So by the time these two teams met again at Sky Stadium in Round 13 it was a more established Nix side that we saw, brewing with the awareness that they could compete with anyone.
Giancarlo Italiano hadn’t quite begun rolling out his alternate back three shape until a few weeks this match (and usually that’s for tricky away games anyway), so we were in familar back four territory here again. Much more even contest. Chances for both teams... including what looked like a stonewall penalty for a drag back on Bozhidar Kraev that went begging, although to be fair Nishan Velupillay did miss an outrageous sitter soon afterwards and then had a goal disallowed because of a marginally offside teammate who strayed slightly in Alex Paulsen’s line of sight. The controversies balanced out, as they tend to do.
Instead the moment that swung the game was a red card for Tim Payne right before the break. A reckless challenge on Zinedine Machach. Initially a yellow, then upgraded to a red by VAR. The second half therefore saw the Victory set up camp with a boost in possession and despite some brave defending that did eventually lead to a Connor Chapman goal on 79’. Velupillay’s driving shot kinda just hit him accidentally and deflected into the net. One of those unlucky ones that feels less unlucky when you consider how much time the Victory spent in the danger zones. But the Nix made a few attacking subs and ended up salvaging a draw after Oskar van Hattum drew a (soft) penalty and Alex Rufer converted it for the 90+5th minute equaliser.
The Phoenix and Victory ran into each other once more and it was only a few weeks ago. This was another Nix home game and they went with a back four... although only in defence because by this time we’d started seeing that rotating shape where Ben Old slides wide in possession to allow them to build from a back three in possession, with left back Sam Sutton tucking in. That also lets Tim Payne charge forward with more freedom on the right (and gives OVH a natural role if/when it comes time for a more attacking outlook). You can always trust Chiefy and his crew to make adjustments in light of their opponents. In each of these three meetings with the Victory you can see the ways in which the Phoenix had evolved throughout the campaign, with a specific emphasis on width brewing across these three Victory meetings.
The weather was nasty for that third match. On a slippery surface, the Nix’s finishing betrayed them a few too many times... yet at the same time this was also one of their best defensive outings. Somehow they blocked an unfathomable 15 shots. It was a hard-earned and much-deserved clean sheet which seemed like it would earn them a third straight draw against this lot. Until, on the brink of fulltime, Oskar van Hattum (him again) won a free kick on the right wing. He took that free kick himself and swung it into a delicious area. Finn Surman rose up with the header. It ended up being credited as an own goal via Roderick Miranda (harsh) but regardless it was still a 90+5th minute winning goal. A legendary moment within their season.
The Match-Up
So what did we learn from those matches? That goals have not been common in any of those fixtures, that’s the first thing to jot down. Three games and only five total goals. No team scored twice in any of those matches. Two of Wellington’s three goals were scored deeeeep into stoppage time – one winner and one equaliser. Two of those three goals came from set pieces. Two of them were own goals. We’re talking about some fine margins here.
This is going to be 180+ minutes of grinding and gruelling football... which fortunately happens to be something the Phoenix rather enjoy under Giancarlo Italiano. The Victory have a very good midfield and some tricky wingers. They like to get wide and whip the ball into the area, but the Nix tend to encourage that in opponents because they know they can win their headers. The Phoenix average over 30 clearances per game against the Victory. Already mentioned the blocked shots too. MVC are probably going to spend some significant time on the offensive in both of these semi-finals so just remember it’s not about how time it’s about goals. The Phoenix are happy to defend deep as long as they’re keeping the other team where they can handle them... knowing that they’re pretty handy on the counter attack (as that goal in the first match against the Victory proves).
This Wellington Phoenix team is build upon its outstanding defence. Defence also leads into attack when this team are in their flow state... although that doesn’t always happen. The Nix don’t need to take more shots to win games. Against the Victory they’ve been outshot by 21 attempts to 58 across three matches. We know how this Nix team operates: it’s about better shots, not more shots. The Victory are different – only Sydney FC and Adelaide take more shots per game (the Nix take the fewest btw)... but they have the second-worst conversion rate in the league – not helped by two goals from 58 shots against Wellington.
Add that together and despite contrasting styles, we’ve got the two lowest-scoring teams from the top six meeting in the semis. The reason for that being a deeply sturdy Victory defence, ranked third behind Wellington and Central Coast in goals conceded. The Phoenix do that by allowing a lot of ineffective shots. The Mariners do that by allowing very few shots at all. The Victory are much more towards the CCM style of preventative action. They’re an organised team, as you’d expect with Tony Popovich in charge. They’re also a rough team, committing the third most fouls (Wellington give away the fewest fouls) with the second-most yellow cards and the most reds.
The sixth red card of their season was shown to Zinedine Machach in the elimination final. Roderick Miranda has two red cards while Jason Geria, Adama Traore, and Jordi Valadon have also seen red ones. That’s a lot of sketchy discipline... and while they were able to win despite Machach’s red last week, that card came with a two-match suspension which means that they’ll be without their French import number ten for both legs of this series. Machach has 12 goal contributions this term (7 goals, 5 assists). This is far from a one man team... and if they are it’s Bruno Fornaroli with his 18 goals, not Monsieur Machach. But that’s still a massive absence. They’re one import down.
WPX vs MVC Regular Season Stat Ranks
Goals Scored
WPX: 9= (42)
MVC: 8 (43)
Goals Conceded
WPX: 1 (26)
MVC: 3 (33)
Clean Sheets
WPX: 2 (11)
MVC: 5 (6)
Goalkeeping Save Percentage
WPX: 1 (81.1%)
MVC: 6 (70%)
Shots Per Game
WPX: 12 (11.19)
MVC: 3 (17.00)
Goals Per Shot
WPX: 3 (0.12)
MVC: 11 (0.08)
Shots On Target Percentage
WPX: 1 (40.7%)
MVC: 10 (34.9%)
Shots Against Per Game
WPX: 2 (18.26)
MVC: 11 (12.22)
Goals Per Shot Against
WPX: 1 (0.05)
MVC: 3 (0.08)
Opponent Shots On Target Percentage
WPX: 1 (28%)
MVC: 3 (32.7%)
Fouls Conceded Per Game
WPX: 12 (9.15)
MVC: 3 (11.52)
Crosses Per Game
WPX: 11 (14.59)
MVC: 3 (20.14)
Average Age (Weighted By Mins Played)
WPX: 3 (26.3)
MVC: 11 (29.3)
The Line-ups
This is the eleven that Tony Popovich picked for the Melbourne Derby last week...
Obviously there’s going to be at least one change with Machach out suspended. Might even see a bit of former Phoenix import Roly Bonevacia in that position, though probably not because he’s barely played for them this season since joining back in February. There are several other back and forth connections between these two clubs. Kosta Barbarouses for example. But also spare a note for Leigh Broxham who is retiring at the end of the season (so... hopefully next week). Broxham is a one-club man having played well in excess of 400 times for the Victory across all competitions. He’s the A-League’s all time leading appearance maker... and one of those appearances was against the Wellington Phoenix at Sky Stadium in their first ever fixture.
That line-up is exactly the same as the last time that the Victory faced the Nix with the exception of having Ryan Teague in there instead of Fabian Monge, which is probably what we’ll see again on Sunday. This is a very settled team with lots of experience. Those CBs are 33 and 35 years old (and Da Silva will turn 36 between the two legs), with their entire back four over the age of 30. Goalie Paul Izzo is only 29 so he’s the young buck there. Compare that to the Nix’s probable back four with Paulsen (21), Payne (30), Surman (20), Wootton (32), Sutton (22).
The Phoenix’s selection is pretty settled too. We know that those defensive lads are going to be there, for example. Lukas Kelly-Heald has played a lot this term but he’s been an unused sub behind Sam Sutton for three matches in a row so that kinda settles that debate. Beyond them, naturally Alex Rufer and Kosta Barbarouses and Ben Old and Bozhidar Kraev are going to be there. That only leaves two other spots, barring any funkiness from Chiefy – and that funkiness is way more likely to come from putting those guys in different roles rather than dropping them.
With those last two spots, they could add a third centre-back (either LKH or Isaac Hughes) to try and tie things down in the away leg. Could go with any of Youstin Salas, Nico Pennington, or Mo Al-Taay for the other midfielder (possibly even two of them if Ben Old plays out wide). David Ball’s experience could be very useful in a game of this magnitude, even if he only plays sixty-odd minutes or something. Oskar Zawada will play but probs only off the bench – although he has had lots more recovery time since getting on in the 87th minute against Macarthur. Remember that Oskar van Hattum was involved in both of those 90+5th minute goals against MVC. Don’t expect to see him from the outset but he’ll be a very handy option later in these games.
One more for the history books, if you cast your mind back in time you may recollect that it was Melbourne Victory who knocked the Welly Nix out in the elimination final back in 2018-19. The Marko Rudan year. Roy Krishna got the only goal in a 3-1 defeat to cap his Johnny Warren Medal campaign. That was five long years ago and this was the eleven for the Nix that day:
Filip Kurto; Ryan Lowry, Steven Taylor, Andrew Durante, Michal Kopczynski, Liberato Cacace; Mandi, Alex Rufer; Max Burgess, David Williams, Roy Krishna
Alex Rufer is the only bloke who is still around. What a trip.
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