The Wellington Phoenix 2024-25 A-League Women’s Season In Review
This was supposed to be the year that the Wellington Phoenix Women made the finals. Actually, last year was supposed to be the year until they missed out by five points. So this year was definitely supposed to be the year. Except they didn’t even get close.
Midway through the campaign things were right on track, sweet as, but then some very familiar wobbles re-emerged and things spluttered away as the Nix claimed just one win (and five points) from their final eleven fixtures. They couldn’t score enough goals. They struggled in Australia. They were always competitive but they rarely got the results to reflect it. 10 of their 13 defeats were by single-goal margins. Sound a whole lot like last season, right?
That’s why Paul Temple is no longer the head coach of this team. Temps did a (mostly) great job last season of bringing them into finals contention after two consecutive wooden spoons. He tried to drive a more confident style of play and, with the addition of overseas imports for the first time, the team took massive strides forward. The 2024-25 campaign was the first time that a Nix ALW coach has stayed for a second season so hopes were high that they’d be able to build further upon those foundations. What actually happened was the first instance of this team regressing from one season to the next.
Squad Building
It didn’t help that they had to replace all five imports... although you could argue they ended up with a better crop this time than last. Certainly Carolina Vilão and Maya McCutcheon were more effective than any of their visa players from 2023-24 (although Mariana Speckmaier’s goals – and even just her pace running in behind and stretching opposition defences – were a huge loss). At worst it was a wash. With a whole wide world in which to search, you should be able to replace your imports... and they did.
The real problem, much like with the Nix blokes, was the void left by departing locals. In this case, we’re talking about Mickey Foster, Kate Taylor, and especially Macey Fraser. At least two of them, if not all three, are locked-on first eleven Football Ferns selections. Where are you going to find instant replacements for that amount of talent? You’re not. Same deal with Finn Surman, Alex Paulsen, and Ben Old in the ALM side. The Wellington Phoenix pride themselves on being a development club so harsh lessons will need to be learned from the events of 2024-25. The Nix have got to be more prepared for player turnover. To be fair though, replacing that trio was never going to be easy.
So what did they do about it? The strategy from both teams was to lean on the academy, therefore scholarship players Daisy Brazendale and Olivia Ingham were upgraded to full deals. Lara Wall’s arrival on a fresh scholarship echoed the addition of Foster a few years earlier, with each of them coming from outside the academy as more experienced domestic players... and each of them swiftly nailing down the starting left-back spot. The Phoenix also took a punt on Amelia Abbott, the former NZ U17s rep who joined mid-season after finishing up her USA university requirements. And far and away their biggest splash was bringing back Grace Jale, who was the only local player that they signed from another professional environment.
In hindsight, that alone should have been a warning signal. Abbott (45 mins) and Ingham (150 mins) hardly played. Brazendale was an alternative defensive midfielder, continuing her impressive development but not yet in a place to be a difference maker. Grace Jale had some great moments but two goals and one assist all season wasn’t exactly a marquee haul. At least Lara Wall was good... granted, one assist all season is proof that the crossing needs plenty of work.
Point being that they didn’t add equivalent talent to the squad compared to what they lost... meaning that the only way they were going to improve would be if their existing players became more productive. How many of them did that? Well, Annalie Longo was magnificent. She created more chances than any other player in the competition despite playing for the second-lowest scoring team. Longo led by example as the captain and her retirement announcement is a brutal one for a club at the crossroads. Other than that, Manaia Elliott’s four goals puts her number two on the team’s scoring list behind import Olivia Fergusson with five. She definitely progressed. Emma Main had a few moments. That’s about it, though. To put it simply: this squad was considerably weaker than last year’s and they weren’t able to overcome that fact.
Fine Margins
What was so frustrating about that is they didn’t ever seem to be far off. Results didn’t reflect the way they performed. They just lacked a bit of extra creativity and a lot of extra finishing. In the past they’ve been able to rely of set pieces for some added attacking juice but Mickey Foster and her wicked deliveries are gone (as are Macey Fraser’s free kicks), although even last season that outlet was already diminished. Partly because teams knew to expect it but mostly because Wellington didn’t have enough players who could put a head on the end of those crosses. They still don’t (Marisa van der Meer was the one who turned those chances into goals and she’s been injured with consecutive ACL tears for the last two seasons).
But look at these stats and ask yourself if this was a bad team:
Average Possession: 51.8% (fourth)
Accurate Crosses: 5.7 per match (first)
Accurate Passes: 284 per match (sixth)
Corner Kicks: 122 (fourth)
Possession Won in Final Third: 7.0 per match (fifth)
Interceptions: 12.9 per match (fourth)
Touches in Opposition Box: 516 (third)
Successful Tackles: 18.7 per match (first)
Shots On Target: 5.7 per match (fourth)
Those stats seem to suggest a very good attacking outfit... and yet they scored the second fewest goals with only 25 from 23 games. Looking at shot totals can be a fool’s errand for a very simple reason: there are many types of shots. A slow dribbler from thirty metres counts as a shot on target same as a thumping free kick that the goalkeeper only just tips over the bar. The Nix got plenty of ball into the penalty area but they didn’t score many goals. They kept good possession but they didn’t score many goals. They won lots of corners and pressed pretty well but they didn’t score many goals. So maybe those shots weren’t actually good shots and those touches in the box weren’t aggressive enough and those crosses weren’t being won where the striker had a high percentage chance of scoring.
Grace Jale scored two goals from 44 shots (36.4% on target). Olivia Fergusson scored five goals from 42 shots (31% on target). Alyssa Whinham scored one goal from 38 shots (39.5% on target). Maya McCutcheon scored two goals from 37 shots (32.4% on target). Annalie Longo scored three goals from 37 shots (35.1% on target). Emma Main scored three goals from 36 shots (48.6% on target). Manaia Elliott scored four goals from 36 shots (50% on target). Two interesting things about that: one is how bad the conversion rates were, with Jale being the only played in the entire league who took at least 40 shots yet scored fewer than five goals. The other is how much they shared those efforts around. Even undefeated premiers Melbourne City only had three players with 35+ shots.
Believe it or not, this team bossed it with the expected goals stats. FootyStats has them with the second-best xG differential in the ALW (as in: expected goals minus expected goals against). Gotta take such numbers with a grain of salt since FbRef has them fifth... but you’ll not be shocked to find that both of those websites place Phoenix right down at the bottom for the difference between expected goals and actual goals. Like, we could talk about defensive issues too if we wanted but those pale in comparison to only scoring 23 goals (plus two own goals) from 35.1 xG. Individually, Manaia Elliott (4 goals from 3.8 xG) and Alivia Kelly (1 goal from 0.7 xG) were the only two players in the entire Phoenix squad who exceeded their expected goals. An inability to finish chances will curse your whole season.
The call is always that this team needs a dominant striker... but let’s be realistic about this because one player isn’t enough. They definitely need more of a focal point on attack but expecting that player to score ten goals and then everything will be sweet is way too simplistic. They need multiple goal threats because down the stretch of this season they didn’t seem to have any. It was often impossible to imagine how they were ever going to score, even when they were dominating games.
Next season they’re going to need more aerial threats (including from defenders going forward), wingers who can beat players 1v1, and players other than Grace Jale (if she stays) who can shoot from distance. They’re going to need players willing to go outside the structure and take risks. It might even be that they need some greedier players, with that bloodlust for goals. Definitely gotta find more speed because that was a glaring weakness too. It’s not only about talent, it’s also about profiles. This squad lacked x-factor. It lacked funkiness. Except for this wee guy, of course…
Trusting The Process
Does anybody remember Small Ball? Looking back the whole Small Ball thing was way more of an aspiration than a reality because it kind of only ever worked when Macey Fraser was on the ball. Maybe a bit of Annalie Longo too. There was so much talk about how they wanted to play last season, creating overloads and working out of space with quick, sharp, short passing and movement. But it was a very situational thing led mostly by Fraser’s technical excellence... abilities that led her to become the ALW’s most expensive outgoing transfer after only one season.
Identifying and trusting Fraser was probably Temple’s biggest win as Phoenix head coach. How exactly previous coaches conspired to overlook her is absolutely baffling. Remember that, even aside from the academy connection, Macey Fraser went to the U20 World Cup with Gemma Lewis and Natalie Lawrence coaching and didn’t play a single minute. The assumption may have been that she was injured but Fraser hinted the opposite on her podcast chat with Maya Hahn recently, intimating that it was a coaching decision, which in turn highlights once more how ridiculous it was that she was right there training at the Phoenix and getting overlooked in those first two seasons.
Back to the main topic, the Small Ball strategy was overstated and we barely even heard about it this season after Fraser left so it wouldn’t be fair to judge them against that idea. Still, this remains a club with a stated desire to give opportunities to players from their own development structures. We saw that with some of their signings. We saw that with increased roles for the likes of Manaia Elliott, Daisy Brazendale, Emma Main, and Olivia Ingham. Even got a few Ela Jerez sightings after she joined the system at the start of last year. Jerez and goalkeeper Brooke Neary were the two academy debutants this season: becoming the second and third youngest players to ever play for the team (Milly Clegg remains atop that list).
Get that system working in harmony and you’ve got readymade replacements whenever a local moves on to bigger and better things overseas, as well as allowing you to embed tactical ideas a lot earlier. But it’s a risky strategy. You need those youth players to be good enough, for starters. Plus you also run the risk of having too many similar players because they’ve all been getting the same instructions from the same coaches alongside the same teammates across those formative years. The benefit of all that extra work is that everyone comes out of it with a midfielder’s skill set, with good passing and control and fitness, however you’ve gotta be careful you don’t accidentally iron out all the freakiness and variety from those players (remember that point about the lack of x-factor). There’s a little bit of that in the WahiNix at the moment with lots of good, solid, reliable prospects who are maybe missing that extra something-something. Not entirely, though. Manaia Elliott’s bull-charging tenacity is an x-factor. Daisy Brazendale’s tackling has that potential. Ela Jerez has x-factor all over the show. All the same, it’s something to be wary of. This probably has a lot to do with why many academy graduates across all sports don’t fully blossom until they leave the team they began with.
There’s a deeper trend at work here too. Part of being a development club is creating a supportive environment. Part of being a team that wants to prioritise its style of play is trusting in the process. As with all things, balance is key. You want players to feel like everyone’s got their back if they make a mistake but they can’t be so comfortable that mistakes have no consequences. You want players to follow instructions on the pitch but you also can’t go coaching the spontaneity out of them. Similarly, when you’re always building for the future you have to make sure you’re not undermining the team’s ability to win in the here-and-now. There’s nothing egregious about how the Phoenix Women have been operating in those regards but the balance isn’t quite right at the moment. Not sure they’ve ever fully discarded the tone that they set by picking such a youthful, developmental squad for that first season. To be honest, the solution might be as simple as a new coach and some more senior players. Once again: their performances weren’t far off from where they want to be.
History Repeats
Do you recall how last season how the Phoenix had such a terrible away record? It did not improve. The same damning struggles were evident again as those 1-0 and 2-1 away defeats continued to pile up.
Wellington Phoenix in Aotearoa
2023-24: L W W W D W W L W W (22 points from 10 games)
2024-25: L W W W W D L W L L D (17 points from 11 games)
Wellington Phoenix in Australia
2023-24: W L L L L L L L L L W L (6 points from 12 games)
2024-25: L L W D L W L L L L L L (7 points from 12 games)
And one of those away wins this time was during Unite Round – a very good 1-0 victory against Adelaide United but that game was played on neutral territory. What’s crazy about all those defeats is that, after the 4-2 loss in game one away to Western United, the only other two times they were beaten by multiple goals were in home games (3-1 vs Adelaide, 2-0 vs Central Coast). Eight of those nine away defeats were by single goal margins. They also lost eight away games by single-goal margins last season... and just like then, they had a positive overall xG differential in those away fixtures.
Another thing is that if only second halves counted then the Nix would have finished fifth. They had a -10 goal difference in first halves and only held three HT leads from 23 matches. They had a +5 goal difference in second halves, scoring 18 of their 25 overall goals after the breaks. They conceded the first goal almost twice as often as they scored it. There were only two instances of the Nix scoring in both halves of the same game.
These things were glaring weaknesses last season. Everybody could see they needed to improve in front of goal, convert more of their chances, and especially grind out a few more results away from home where their performances easily warranted more points. Everybody could see it... yet nothing changed. It wasn’t for lack of trying – that away game xG differential went from +0.06 last time to +0.38 this time – but for whatever reason they just couldn’t find a solution.
Moving Into The Future
This is where things get murky because there will be a new head coach next season (no point in speculating about that just yet) and there will also be a brand new rival in the form of Auckland FC. There have been some hold-ups with that, sounds like it’s the league that’s slowing things down, but AFC have always stated their determination to have a presence in both A-Leagues. The blueprint is already there for Terry McFlynn and company to build out a strong squad based on how they put together their men’s team: high quality imports, a few fringe kiwi internationals, a couple of experienced A-League veterans, plus the best and brightest of the NZ domestic scene (focussing specifically on the northern regions).
That’ll be very exciting for kiwi football... although Phoenix fans would be right to feel some serious trepidation because it’s highly likely that an Auckland FC team which follows that blueprint is going to be pretty damn good from day one. Just like their blokes have been. Following four straight seasons outside the finals for the Phoenix, that could be a confronting situation.
It’s also going to mean competition for signatures. Grace Jale is the only Aucklander in the current squad although several others have previously played club football in Tamaki Makaurau. They might avoid that particular exodus, we shall see, but any Footy Ferns returning from overseas are going to have a choice on their hands. Safe to say the Wellington Phoenix have got some work to do because this is how the current squad ranks from most minutes played to fewest minutes played, with the bold names being those who are contracted for the 2025-26 campaign:
Maya McCutcheon, Carolina Vilao, Annalie Longo, Lara Wall, Mackenzie Barry, Tiana Jaber, Grace Jale, Olivia Fergusson, Alyssa Whinham, Manaia Elliott, Alivia Kelly, Emma Main, Daisy Brazendale, Zoe McMeeken, Mebae Tanaka, Rebecca Lake, Olivia Ingham, Aimee Danieli, Amelia Abbott, Ela Jerez, Ella McMillan, Brooke Neary, Ella McCann
That’s it... only one of the top eight and four of the top sixteen are under contract. Sixteen players is the size of a matchday squad – albeit without a second goalie in this case – therefore they’re at risk of losing three-quarters of their top choice team. Now, with the Phoenix failing to have hit the heights they targeted, maybe that’s not such a bad thing... but either way it means more uncertainty.
In a devastating blow to these purposes, Annalie Longo announced her retirement after the final game. Longo was straight-up, no arguments accepted, the Player of the Season for the Wellington Phoenix and not only will her abilities be difficult to replace, her experience will be impossible to replace. There’s simply no other player right now who’d bring the same combination of 130+ international caps, numerous major tournaments, multiple A-League championships, and extensive off-the-pitch development work in her role with NZ Football. If, by some miracle, the only players who even come close to that right now (Erceg, Bowen, Stott) became available... they’d more likely sign with Auckland anyway.
The good news is that most of the youngsters are lock in. The other good news is that their U18s are absolutely tearing it up in the Women’s Central League (the U20s play in the Boys U15 Capital Development League and they also began their season with a win). The production line seems to be doing its thing. Yet there’s a mighty big leap from there to the A-League. They need experience and physicality. They’re at risk of needing a whole new crop of imports again. At best they’ve got three first eleven players slated to return (more likely two but Temps did mix it up with the likes of Whinham, Brazendale, and Elliott alongside the undoubted case of Lara Wall). Fortunately, it’s a long offseason... because they’re gonna need as much time as they can get.
More Stuff
Another way to look at the squad retention is by age. Already mentioned that only four of the top 16 players for minutes played are under contract. It’s also the case that Lara Wall is the only played currently aged over 21 who has a deal for next season. There is an existing agreement to bring Marisa van der Meer back if she proves her fitness but otherwise their contracted players are the scholarship lot plus four of the five youngest full contracts. The fifth of those five, the one that’s a free agent, is Zoe McMeeken who is about five months younger than Alyssa Whinham.
Speaking of Zoe McMeeken, she went from 859 minutes last season to 860 minutes this season... although this season she also added in a goal and two assists, starting in 8/19 appearances. She fell victim to hierarchy with Tiana Jaber and Alivia Kelly rotating in the right-back spot at ZM’s expense but you know what? The Phoenix had a +5 goal difference in the 860 minutes that McMeeken played and a -10 goal difference in the other 1210 mins. They scored 14 goals with McMeeken on the pitch and 11 goals without her... despite McMeeken only playing around 41% of the time. McMeeken is one of those rare players with pace and a little x-factor and she was massively underutilised.
Grace Jale was tried in a several different roles across the season: left wing, number ten, striker, starting on the bench, then finally in central midfield. It was in the latter spot that she arguably looked her best during the final couple of games. There she was able to get more involved earlier in the play, as well as flexing some hitherto unrealised tackling excellence. Felt like shades of her NZ U20s/Eastern Suburbs days when she used to do a similar role. We’ll see what happens from here because Jale’s played for a different team in each of her four ALW seasons (including two separate stints at the Nix). This conundrum of how best to use her is not a new one.
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored/90 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| Goals Conceded/90 | 2.29 | 1.61 | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Points Per Game | 0.5 | 0.72 | 1.27 | 1.04 |
| xG For/90 | 0.78 | 0.99 | 1.56 | 1.81 |
| xG Against/90 | 2.15 | 1.59 | 1.23 | 1.47 |
| Shots For/90 | 8.07 | 11.33 | 13.5 | 15.70 |
| Shots Against/90 | 19 | 15.56 | 14.64 | 12.30 |
| Passing Completion % | 62.1 | 67.8 | 71.9 | 72.00 |
| Touches In Penalty Area/90 | 12.57 | 18.3 | 15.81 | 22.43 |
| Defensive Clearances/90 | 23.64 | 23.39 | 21.18 | 24.43 |
The goals that this team scored were split fairly evenly with 14 scored by locals, 9 scored by imports, and 2 own goals in their favour. Olivia Fergusson’s five goals were the most, earning the club’s Golden Boot. That puts her in a linage that goes from Grace Jale (6) to Milly Clegg (4) to Marina Speckmaier (10) and now Olivia Fergusson (5). The Nix have lost every other top scorer in free agency immediately afterwards so it’ll be up to Fergie if that trend continues or not.
In terms of minutes per goal, it goes:
Olivia Fergusson – 309 mins per goal
Manaia Elliott – 325 mins per goal
Emma Main – 377 mins per goal
Mebae Tanaka – 650 mins per goal
Annalie Longo – 651 mins per goal
Grace Jale – 835 mins per goal
Zoe McMeeken – 871 mins per goal
Maya McCutcheon – 1019 mins per goal
The simplest definition of an academy player is someone who joined the club before they signed with the A-League team. Hence Luke Brooke-Smith and Corban Piper are not academy players for the men’s side because they were signed from outside directly to A-League contracts even though they first featured for the reserves. Based on that definition, there were eight academy graduates who took the field this season: Manaia Elliott, Emma Main, Olivia Ingham, Ela Jerez, Daisy Brazendae, Ella McMillan, Brooke Neary, and Aimee Danieli.
Gemma Lewis won 2/14 games as Phoenix coach (14.3%) with a -23 goal difference.
Nat Lawrence won 3/18 games (16.7%) with a -10 goal difference.
Paul Temple won 16/45 (35.6%) with a -2 goal difference.
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