The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 30
Last Week: 5/10
Overall: 146/283
Liverpool vs Everton
Sunday 12.30am (NZT)
And that’s now that as far as the international breaks go. The corner has been rounded, the season is headed towards its ferocious conclusion. Hey and a Merseyside Derby ain’t the worst way to signal that final direction either.
The Toffees rate themselves at the moment. They have plenty of reasons to, with the form of Romelu Lukaku being first and foremost. But if we’re being totally honest here then they’re a bit of an enigma too. Getting talked about in that ‘Top Seven’ status is down to the fact that Man United and Arsenal are way closer to them than they should be because of games in hand and as good as Lukaku has been… he’s also playing for a transfer. Ronald Koeman is playing for a promotion to a Champions League club as well, this is obviously a stepping stone for him. In a sad kind of way, the better they do the less sustainable it’ll be.
Oh also Seamus Coleman just broke his leg playing for Ireland. That sucks about as much as an injury can suck, he’s already had to come back from some tough ones in the past and he’s not even that old. Everton really didn’t need this either, a chink in that defensive armour which lately had really started to figure things out – four clean sheets in their last five Premier League games. No surprises they’ve had a seriously consistent back four in that time, with Baines, Williams, Jagielka/Funes Mori, Coleman in each of them. Also ever-present in that stretch: Morgan Schneiderlin, who was arguably the finest defensive midfielder in the PL two years ago under Koeman at Southampton.
Here’s the thing though, the Toffees are terrible in this derby. They already know this, Liverpool fans already know this. Now we know it too. October 17, 2010: That was the last time they beat Liverpool, a 2-0 win at Goodison with Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta scoring. Ah, the good ol’ days. Seamus Coleman, Phil Jagielka and Leighton Baines also played so there’s some defensive longevity for ya.
But it’s been 13 games since that. Six defeats and seven draws, including a 4-0 defeat at Anfield last season. Their form at Anfield is even worse, naturally, than the overall numbers. 17 games since they last won there, going all the way back to September 27, 1999. Kevin Campbell scored a fourth minute winner in a game that saw both Sander Westerveld and Francis Jeffers sent off, with Steven Gerrard joining them in injury time. There were fisticuffs…
That tackle from Gerrard is absolutely horrendous. GET IT IN YA!
So yeah, probably gotta pick a Liverpool win here. They’re worth it after a strong few games since losing to Leicester and had they been more clinical (a recurring problem for them) then they shoulda beaten City last time out. Enjoyable game, that. Could legit have gone in any of three ways. Klopperpool need the points here with United and Arsenal holding games in hand and poised to strike for that fourth place. No Adam Lallana. Shouldn’t make a difference to the result but it’s stink all the same. Lallana’s the best.
Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 1-0
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
The good news for Palace is that even a loss here can’t send them back into the relegation zone. At least not this week. But the bad news is that they’re playing Chelsea so they will lose. Like, you can lock that sucker in right now. Chelsea don’t blow it against Crystal Palaces… that’s more of a Liverpool thing to do.
Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois both trained with the first team as well, so any hope that their injuries might linger on and cost them the game is pretty much allayed.
How about the news about Chelsea going hard for Alexis Sanchez, aye? There’s increasing talk that Eden Hazard might want out but even if he doesn’t, Sanchez is an improvement over Pedro and he’d give them an absolutely terrifying front line (depending on what Diego Costa does but they’ll spend big on a replacement if he leaves so that’s all the same – Lukaku or Morata?). Sanchez is surely gonna leave Arsenal now and I’d assumed Manchester City would be the ideal fit for him. They still might be. Chelsea aren’t a shabby second place though, he’d fit in straight away on that squad.
You know who the last player to move from Arsenal to Chelsea was? Ashley Cole.
It always makes me wonder when we read stories about deals like that while the season’s still ongoing and the transfer window months away. Journalists don’t tend to make them up (not for decent publications anyway) so it’s like… who leaked this? The player or the club… and which club? In this case it seems clear that Chelsea are putting out some info, probably to tempt Sanchez and maybe unsettle him but also to flex their muscles in the media. They’re the biggest power in the English game right now and want everyone to know it. Antonio Conte’s got a new contract already in preparation.
… the dickheads.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chelsea 2-0
Manchester United vs West Bromwich Albion
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
Oh God, this could be horrific. Keep in mind both teams have a penchant for draws, particularly when it comes to United at home and WBA away. ManYoo are 18 games unbeaten in the League? Yeah but they’ve drawn eight times in that… hence they aren’t in the top four. The Baggies are actually much better at winning these tight ones this season which is why they are exceeding expectations but in Mourinho and Pulis we have two managers who know the value of making sure they don’t lose first and foremost.
West Brom just beat Arsenal before the international break too, let’s not overlook that fact.
Sometimes Man United can be this gorgeous and flowing team, other times they’re pure grind. As it happens, Ander Herrera and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are still suspended, their last games out, and Paul Pogba is out injured still. Maybe Marcus Rashford and Henrikh Mkhitaryan can bring a little polish to things but we’re very, very likely to see a midfield containing Marouane Fellaini and that tends not to bring out the best in polished football.
In the opposite midfield will be Jake Livermore. That dude’s playing the best footy of his career now and he’s been through some mud, alright. Had a kid die in childbirth and that tragedy sent him off the rails to where he tested positive for cocaine use and faced a possible two year ban from the game. Now he’s gotten himself into the England squad after a £10m move to WBA from Hull. That’s cool, man. Love a redemption story like that.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 to Man U
Leicester City vs Stoke City
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
Three wins in a row for Leicester plus they’re still in the Champions League and they’re scored three goals in each of those three PL wins. No clean sheets but three goals means you don’t even need one. When you look at them like this, their defence were always gonna regress, whether N’Golo Kante was there or not, because… well, they’re old and slow. But the drop off on attack was really distressing as Jamie Vardy and the lads varied between confusion, frustration and general apathy. Suddenly the fire’s been lit again.
You’ll never hear me justify Claudio Ranieri being sacked but I do have to admit that he wasn’t ever gonna get this reaction out of the players – he’s just not that kinda bloke. Apparently the players don’t have it in them to inspire themselves either, though it’s hard to stay mad with them when they’re back to playing like this.
Stoke did the business already, they’re settled in mid-table with nothing to worry about even after a really difficult run that saw them play Spurs (lost 4-0), City (drew 0-0) and Chelsea (lost 2-1) in the space of four games. This is about the time when those safe teams stop really bothering as much.
Wildcard’s Pick: Leicester 3-1
Watford vs Sunderland
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
So Sunderland got promoted to the Premier League (after one season out) back in 2006-07. Roy Keane was the manager and they did it in style, only losing one of their last 20 games in the Champo to lift the trophy. Unsurprisingly it was the last time they won a trophy and the first time since… a couple years earlier when they last got relegated and bounced back up (though it took two tries that time).
Since they’ve been in the top flight, this is what they’ve done:
- 2007-08: 15th place with 39 points
- 2008-09: 16th place with 36 points
- 2009-10: 13th place with 44 points
- 2010-11: 10th place with 47 points
- 2011-12: 13th place with 45 points
- 2012-13: 17th place with 39 points
- 2013-14: 14th place with 38 points
- 2014-15: 16th place with 38 points
- 2015-16: 17th place with 39 points
Over the last four seasons they’ve won 35 games, drawn 49 and lost 68 games with a goal difference of -68 and that’s not even including this season’s efforts, which hardly improve things sitting last with 5 wins, 5 draws, 18 defeats and a -26 GD.
Please, for the sake of the rest of us, just do down this time. Reset the squad in the Championship and bounce back up with a little vigour. You don’t have to sack Davie Moyes, he can be your Rafa Benitez (ha!). But another late-season Houdini act would mean another team with a lot more to get excited about would have to drop down.
As for Watford, I’ll have something to say about Watford when I have something to say about Watford. Considering the stuff I laid down there about poor Sunders, Watford fans oughta feel rather chirpy in 14th place right now. Another obscure mid-table finish to build off coming your way.
Wildcard’s Pick: Watford 1-0
Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
Just secretly, Burnley haven’t won for six games now. Lost to Watford, Swansea and Liverpool with draws against Chelsea, Hull and Sunderland mixed in there as well. They were looking really good for a spell then all this. They got dumped outta the FA Cup by Lincoln City too. And in those winless games, there’s really only the Chelsea draw that looks good there – funny then that that’s the only home game they played in that time, blame the cup postponements for that.
Which means they might not be as poorly placed to take on Spurs here as some would imagine. No Harry Kane up against Michael Keane who just established himself as an international defender and Spurs might have the odd issue there getting the ball in the net. Dele Alli’s been magnificent lately and he’ll need to be the fella again.
- Tottenham at home: 13 W | 2 D | 0 L | 35 GF | 8 GA
- Tottenham away: 4 W | 6 D | 3 L | 20 GF | 13 GA
Burnley still have the worst away record in the division, in case you were wondering. Zero wins in 15 games and they’re blowing some great chance to break that duck – Watford, Swansea and Sunderland were all winnable.
Know now as I settle for a narrow Spurs win that I strongly considered picking a draw here. I know that’s shamefully covering my bases… so be it. This is my bloody column after all.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 to Spurs
Hull City vs West Ham United
Sunday 2.00am (NZT)
Michail Antonio and Winston Reid are out of this match, after both missed out on international duty through injuries from their last game. Their two best players this season right there, though given they’re playing Hull with a game against Arsenal next week it's better safe than sorry, not that either was every really a chance. West Ham should be fine. Hull you be shut down if you take care of Oumar Niasse (not necessarily an easy task) and they’re still loose at the back. Chuck a few crosses in there, bingo.
Shout out to Robert Snodgrass. Here’s his chance to show that he jumped a sinking ship for the right reasons. Kinda think he will too, lock the bugger in for a goal here. He is the Scottish Messi after all.
Which reminds me… why are Scotland so bad at football? Every British team except them was at the last Euros and the Scots haven’t been at a major tourney since the 1998 World Cup. But they have some quality players, definitely no worse than Northern Ireland’s pool of talent. I dunno, I don’t follow closely enough to gather all the idiosyncrasies, I just wanna see more tartans at football tournaments. Up to you, Snoddy.
Wildcard’s Pick: 3-2 WHU
Southampton vs Bournemouth
Sunday 4.30am (NZT)
Kind of a season of what-ifs for Southampton. Manolo Gabbiadini is out of this one with injury, Charlie Austin is still injured and Virgil Van Dijk is probably now done for the season based on the latest updates there. The Saints are good enough to compete on their day with the best in England but they’re not good enough to be able to roll with the bad luck of injuries to key players. Everton are the same, imagine if Romelu Lukaku tore a hamstring. Spurs used to be that team as well though not any longer by the looks. Harry Kane is literally injured right now and they’re still storming towards second.
It’s hardly been a wasted season for the Saints all the same. Their Europa League stuff was a disappointment but they should have a good run at ninth, maybe even eighth in the Premier League. Guys like James Ward-Prowse and Jack Stephens have made big strides as players and Nathan Redmond’s had his best year as a pro since joining in the summer. Plus, you know, Gabbiadini. Just a matter of who they sell now.
While for Bournemouth – the end of the last international break seems like a decent time to start drawing conclusions – they’ve gotta be chuffed with where they are right now in eleventh but they could drop in a hurry, no doubt about that. There are three teams on 33 points and Southampton and Bournemouth are two of them. Meanwhile Leicester are poised to strike from 15 only three points behind. Bournemouth tried to run before they could walk, having successfully learned to crawl, and they’re the same in that they lost Simon Francis for a couple of games and they all of a sudden couldn’t defend at all. His first two starts since he returned? They won both of them and everything was rosy again.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Southampton
Swansea City vs Middlesbrough
Monday 12.30am (NZT)
Sacking the boss has worked for Swansea. It worked for Leicester. It’s working for Crystal Palace. It worked for Hull. In fact it’s worked for every team at the bottom so far except for Sunderland who replaced their manager before the season and Middlesbrough who did it two weeks ago and haven’t had a chance yet. They lost to Man United but there’s nothing at all to say about that game which wasn’t Jose Mourinho’s fault. He literally subbed on a sixth defender after going 2-0 up because clearly they weren’t being defensive enough. So Middlesbrough started pumping the ball into the box what with unlimited space to do so in the middle and they pulled one back. Ended up losing 3-1 but I’m not actually sure you can take too much from that other than a solid effort and an end to that ugly goal drought. Eh, better than nothing.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Monday 3.00am (NZT)
It’s blockbuster Monday morning… ah Christ. These ones are too hard to stay up for and they’re so hard to get up for. Maybe an early morning replay? One way or another this is a must watch, mate.
We’ve got Arsene Wenger with his overlying contract situation. Some people think he oughta stay, some think he needs to leave. I don’t really care (it’ll probably get worse either way) but what annoys me is all the videos of angry fans and whatever… half of these buggers are 15 years old. Don’t talk to me about managerial legacies when the bastard’s been the boss of this team longer than you’ve been alive there, you slimy little scumbag. All these passionate teens burning jerseys and singing parody songs. They don’t even remember Thierry Henry.
And let’s be honest, Arsenal fans will never be satisfied, no matter what. Apparently fourth place is an entitlement.
Ah but Wenger’s hardly the only sucker to watch out for. After the last set of games I wrote this thing about Pep Guardiola which is summed up by saying this ain’t the finished product. There will be significant improvements to this side in the near future and the journey has only just begun. Meaning don’t write off Pep and especially don’t write off Man City, who on their day still play the best football in England. You know I don’t say that lightly either.
Alexis Sanchez did this the other day. He won’t be playing for Arsenal much longer.
There’s also the fact that the Gunners are slipping from their long term perch in the top four, clinging like Mufasa clung to Scar’s paws on that cliffside. City meanwhile are still in with a very tasty shot at second place and are well-poised to get at it. Oh and who’s in second? Spurs… who Arsenal are in big danger of finishing below after 21 years of St Totteringham’s Days. Half the Arsenal team is playing for contracts. Based on my own musings in that City piece, half the City team could be as well. There’s heaps on the line and there are at least five other feisty teams licking their lips at the prospect of dropped points from either of this pair.
Yeah… bugger trying to figure this one out.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1