UPDATE: Not so screwed, look what Sky/beIN went and did. But keep reading anyway.

If you believe the stories then this last weekend of Premier League football may have been the last we see on New Zealand screens for a long time. After three years of Premier League Pass, Coliseum Sports has no intention of renewing those broadcasting rights and their predecessor Sky Television doesn’t seem too interested in picking up where they left off either.

Al Jazeera has purchased those rights through their subsidiary network beIN Sports (through which we see Sky TV’s European football content), having outbid both Sky and Coliseum, but they have no NZ affiliate. The idea was to then on-sell those rights (with their own coverage and programming) to local broadcasters as they have in many other countries around the Asia/Pacific region, with the larger goal being to establish the channel as a semi-global footballing kingdom. Already they have a stronghold in the Middle East and North Africa – which is effectively the home ground of the Qatar-based network.

Problem is: they’re asking too much. Coliseum have already backed off and the word from Sky TV is that, while they’re keen to bring it back, there’s just no way they can meet beIN’s asking price. As it stands, there will be no Premier League in New Zealand next season.

One hope is that beIN Sports/Al Jazeera change their minds and establish their own channel or (more likely) streaming service in NZ. Another is that they lower their asking price or find themselves bartered down. Like, right now they’re staring at nothing and something > nothing, generally speaking. But there’s a reason they ask so much for the on-sold rights. All this talk in the Premier League about the massive influx of cash that’s coming next season thanks to the new rights deals, these are the same dollars in deals all around the world. That money didn’t come from nowhere.

Which appears ominous for smaller national markets like New Zealand, as we now seem to be priced out of the market. The prices for coverage rights are increasing but the potential audience is not and unless broadcasters are sure that they can trust viewers to pick up the difference – which they probably cannot – then at some point it all becomes too much.

When Coliseum Sports first wrestled the Premier League broadcast rights off of Sky TV, it was met with massive backlash, though most of that eventually proved groundless. Premier League Pass turned out to be a fantastic service, offering a viewer’s choice of every game live and in HD (much better than the 1-2 concurrent afternoon kickoffs that Sky would have, inevitably featuring the top teams each week – with five or six games often starting at the 2/3am Sunday morning timeslot even those big clubs wouldn’t necessarily be live every week). Not only that but highlights packages and the odd extra bit of programming was all there too and replays were available at your own discretion for at least 24 hours. And of course there was a return to free to air footy with the partnership between Coliseum and TVNZ allowing for one live game and a highlights show per week – although that highlights show was thoroughly buried in the pointless timeslot of midnight on a Wednesday (so, 0:00 Thursday). By that time you’re halfway to next week’s games already, not to mention the late night watch.

Everyone will have had the odd internet problem that cost them the first ten minutes of a game or meant for some anxious refreshing as the page crashed with one team about to line up an attacking free kick. Plus a bit of lag here and there. Yet on the whole, PL Pass was pretty brilliant.

But it probably didn’t do that well. These things never do. It’s impossible to say for sure without digging into the records (or asking nicely and crossing fingers) but the chances are that in a landscape where Sky TV is losing subscribers, the online upstarts (sans Netflix, of course) probably are as well. Or at least they weren’t gaining enough new ones to make it all worthwhile for another spin – not with these rising bloody costs.

Coliseum merged with Spark’s Lightbox in late 2014. That made sense given they were otherwise robbing each other of subscribers that neither could afford to lose. The Spark money may be our best bet now as kiwi fans, splashing a little of that telecom cash. That’s effectively what has happened in Australia with Optus, which is a frightening case study in itself. We may be losing the football as things stand, but Aussies are being straight up ransomed for it.

After years of marriage between Foxtel and the English Premier League, late last year they split. It was the age-old story: Foxtel had taken the Premier League for granted and the Premier League found someone that could offer them more. For the cheeky sum of AU$200m (or so rumoured), Optus strolled in and swept the Premier League off its feet (for the next three years), leaving Foxtel wondering how this could ever have happened.

The rights are apparently bid for in a blind auction so that tells you how Foxtel may have been caught out. The only major contender anticipated was beIN Sports and it’s understood that Foxtel managed to outbid them. It is also understood that Optus’ surprise bid may have been as much as triple what Foxtel offered.

And this is all particularly relevant to NZ even beyond shared sympathies because the rumour is that beIN went after the NZ rights because they saw it as a valuable package to handcuff to the Aussie rights that they really wanted – Australia being one of the key markets in the Asia/Pacific region. Except that while they overpaid for the kiwi option (around NZ$10m/3yrs, so some claim), and came prepared with a hefty cheque for the Aussie ones too, beIN didn’t match what Optus had up their sleeve.

A big blow that was to beIN’s visions though an even bigger blow for Foxtel who had for so long held dominance on international satellite sports in Australia. In retaliation, a few months later Foxtel announced that they had struck a deal with beIN to add three new high definition beIN Sports channels within the Foxtel sports package (for no additional cost to existing subscribers) to replace the single $20/month channel that they already had. Those channels now specialise in European football with Spanish, Italian, German, lower league English and both Champions League and Europa League competitions all featured. They’ve also got every single game of the upcoming European Championships (which will be screened on Sky TV in NZ). That’s incredible value to viewers, especially since they aren’t being burdened with the costs – which are sure to be pretty hefty.

Meanwhile in America, NBC Sports renewed their PL coverage for another six years before this season began. It’s cost them roughly a billion dollars (US) at something close to twice the annual expense of their previous three-year deal, but given how the sport has grown in that country during their broadcasting reign that doesn’t look like such a bad deal (Sky and BT’s combined rights package in the UK is worth somewhere between 8-10 billion US). NBC don’t actually expect to make a profit off of English footy, the idea is that it reflects well upon their sporting brand (they also carry plenty of NHL and motor racing – including Nascar, IndyCar and Formula One), thus making their profitable stuff even more so. It’s what they call a Portfolio Deal.

So it seems that in this new age of monster broadcasting deals, nobody’s really making any money except for the Premier League. The broadcasters are paying more and copping losses, the fans are paying more and copping unwanted apprehensions. Yet the PL and its clubs are absolutely swimming in it, Scrooge McDuck style, which gives you some indication as to why transfer spending seems to be through the roof. Next time your team spends twenty million quid on some Belgian prodigy, you can justifiably say you chipped in.

But Australia’s PL situation is really kinda terrible and here is where the ransoming comes in. Having secured the rights in November 2015, this is what Premier League boss Richard Scudamore had to say:

"We are extremely pleased that Optus has chosen to invest in our broadcasting rights for the three seasons 2016/17 to 2018/19. They have an excellent track record as a multifaceted telecommunications company in Australia and we look forward to working with them to make all the best Premier League content available to our fans across the country."

Nice and generous. The Premier League doesn’t really filter its blind auction bids, they more or less just take the one with the most zeroes. There are leagues that do, around the world, take into account viewer experience and brand relations but not so much this one – they don’t really have to when only the elite can afford to bid. However stress the bit about the “best Premier League content available to our fans” thing. That’s reassuring.

This, from Opta CEO Allen Lew, is less so:

"This is another significant step in our strategy to become a mobile-led multimedia company. We are dedicated to delivering the best domestic and international entertainment for our customers. With 930 million followers worldwide, the Premier League is one of the most sought-after sports properties for content providers. Today’s announcement is a great win for Optus and will ensure that Aussie football fans can watch all the action from the world’s most popular football league.”

First sentence all about themselves. Second mentions the customer but in relation to themselves. Third justifies the significance of their achievement and the value of their new partner. Fourth pats themselves on the back and then finally addresses the actual product: being able to broadcast the Premier League to Australian fans.

That is something of a cynical reading of those comments but when a few months later Optus – a telecommunications company – unveiled how they planned to release that product to the public, their intentions became rather worrying.

The good news is that one game a week would be available free to air on SBS, just as PL Pass and TVNZ arranged on this side of the Tasman Sea. The bad news is that there is no other good news. Optus’ Premier League coverage will be free… for those already on an Optus plan costing at least $85 per month. Optus mobile plan or broadband subscribers can watch the football for prices as low as $15 a month. Oh yeah, you do have to be an Optus subscriber and that’s the worst part of it all. Not even a pre-paid customer either, you’ve gotta get yourself on a plan. Given that Optus has about 20% of the market share for broadband internet and is a comfortable distance behind Telstra’s mobile coverage, this whole thing comes off as a power play for customers. Curiously, Foxtel just happens to be a joint venture between New Corp (Fox News, Fox Sports, etc.) and Telstra.

Changing subscription plans means paying additional fees. There are also extra costs that can accrue based on where you live, given that Optus rents a lot of its infrastructural equipment. You will be able to watch it on telly, though the Fetch TV box will cost you about 85 bucks and you’ll need to be an Optus broadband subscriber. Or you could get a satellite installed for $250, plus 20 bucks a month’s subscription. Again, you must be an Optus broadband subscriber. There will be a streaming service online and an app, just like Premier League Pass, only unlike PL Pass, subscriptions are not available to anybody willing to pay. Hey and that “as low as $15 a month” thing in the previous paragraph… obviously that doesn’t include the minimum $40/month mobile plan. Needless to say that every available option, broadband/mobile/combo, includes a 24 month contract with the minimum total costs there ranging from $960 (mobile only, exc. EPL) to $2880 (home broadband inc. EPL). Again, those are minimums. For that latter price you could literally afford to fly to England and watch a damn game yourself.

Another sneaky point is that their rights last for three seasons and the contracts are for two, meaning that if you renew for that third year then they’ve got you for the fourth as well even if they don’t maintain their Premier League stuff.

It’s almost enough to make you wonder if our precarious situation might actually be the better of the two.

Of course the other consequence that we had in New Zealand was the proliferation of Club TV broadcasts, as the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs found their match broadcasts on kiwi telly (mostly on Sky Sports, though some found a home on the now-defunct Sommet Sports). These included semi-interesting club documentaries and features, as well as delayed coverage of the weekend’s games. First problem being they were delayed, often not available until the day after (given the time zones). Second problem being they are club-based broadcasts and that means club-based commentators. They aren’t interested in impartiality by any means. A particular perpetrator is MUTV’s Paddy Crerand, a legend of the club but one whose commentary often descends into terrace shouts of “get it in, son!” and who regularly refers to players by their first names. Even Manchester United fans have trouble with that. Foxtel are busy working on bringing these coverages to Aussie viewers as a little extra compensation.

Which brings us back to the New Zealand thing. There is still a chance that Sky can negotiate something, there is always a chance. Especially with those buggers who tend to leave these things as late as possible. Likewise Vodafone could try do an Optus or maybe Spark and Lightbox use their PL Pass connections to do some good in the world. As of right now though it looks increasingly likely that fans desperate for that 2am fix of English football will need to resort to more nefarious means.

Illegal streaming is like the people’s market correction. When they’re subjected to Optus ransoms, they go for the alternative options. There are all sorts of websites that will facilitate this and while those sites are all completely illegal, most countries do not consider it a crime to stream their content. Not a single person in Britain, for example, has ever been prosecuted for streaming illegal video, with law-enforcers understandably far more interested in the providers than the consumers. They’ll try and dry the pool up with warnings of malware and moral obligations but realistically the cost of illegally streaming football matches is a bollocks-load of pop up ads and dodgy quality video with incessant lagging. The quality of vid naturally varies from stream to stream.

Compared to the relatively affordable and high definition Premier League Pass, this is a bastard of a drop off in experience. TalkSport radio does hold global audio licenses for 25 countries including New Zealand and Australia (through Eon Sports Radio), and is easily streamed itself. That’s currently the best doorway. Your other option is to find some international streaming service and use a VPN (virtual private network) to watch without geographic restrictions. Unfortunately for those slighted Aussies, Premier League Pass would have been perfect for that with their current conundrum.

It’s a funny world we live in when backroom television rights deals are being questioned and discussed widely by Johnny on the Street, these aren’t things that we’re supposed to care about. These are things we wouldn’t care about if they didn’t suddenly affect us. Unfortunately ‘we’ don’t really matter in the scheme of these things. Still, there are three months before the next season begins and we’ve got the European Champs to sate us in the meantime. Three months is plenty enough for someone to sort something out and Sky’s existing relationship with beIN makes that avenue seem worth a stroll down, we just have to play the waiting game. We’re not completely screwed yet.

Yet.