The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 11
Last Week: 5/10
Overall: 51/100
Manchester City vs Middlesbrough
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
She’s been a funny old season so far, swinging all over the place with new teams taking the ascendency every few days, it seems. This is what happens when you combine a 2015-16 season where all the big teams had down years with a massive increase on the financial side of things. Every major team has improved their squad and they all rate themselves to take this bugger to the house.
Manchester City brought in Pep Guardiola in a massive statement of intent. Arsenal finally bought a defender and a couple central midfielders – plus a backup striker. Hey hey hey. Chelsea have brought in Antonio Conte and switched things up formation-wise while Liverpool are definitely figuring out the whole Gegenpressing thing now, for sure. Then there’s Spurs, still undefeated. And Everton a club on the rise under Ronald Koeman. Oh and don’t forget about Manchester United who have had a couple struggles the last few weeks but are only a good month away from rejoining the hombres at the top.
Speaking of…
HOW BLOODY CLOSE IS THIS!? There’s only goal difference splitting the top three and Chelsea are one point behind them and Spurs two back with a magnificent defensive record. Seriosusly, only five goals conceded. Be nice for them if they could add a couple more down the other end but whatever.
I’ll throw this out there, if it does end up going down to goal difference after all 38, then Manchester City hold the clear advantage. Naturally they already have the lead in that area and with their ability to completely dominate the ball, limiting the shots they have to face, and then that thing they do where they absolutely demolish teams by four or five goals, those wins are gonna give them the boost on GD. Arsenal have a bit of that about them but they’re more likely to have to overcome those off-days they have with the odd 1-0/0-0 in there. They’ve already had a few of those – Burnley and Middlesbrough for example. Chelsea won’t score enough goals, while Liverpool will concede too many.
But that depends on Man City matching the results of all the rest of them and following six games in all comps without a win, that might not be the dead certainty it appeared before that. Hmm except what did they do midweek again?
That’s right, they beat Barcelona. And no snatch and grab win either, this was a fully deserved victory. Fair to say that Barca missed the likes of Iniesta, Jordi Alba and Gerard Pique.
As for Boro, they damn sure needed that win last week over Bournemouth, the three points edging them ahead of West Brom and West Ham and it seems they even figured out a way to create a few goals. Gaston, lad. Take a bow.
Wildcard’s Pick: Man City 2-0
West Ham United vs Stoke City
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
Weren’t Stoke City in the middle of a massive form slump? Five games unbeaten with three wins on the trot, I guess not then. Even Wilfried Bony scored against Swansea – his first goals of 2016 having been the top scorer in the PL for the 2014 calendar year. Oh and it was against the team that brought him to England. So many cruelties in that.
To be fair, Bony was mostly on the outer at City so that was why he wasn’t banging them in. Not like he turned into Jozy Altidore overnight. No shocker it’s taken him a little while to find his feet but he’s too good not to improve this team – a team that desperately needed a centre forward (like a few others that also addressed that need in the summer). Bony’s only on a season-long loan but if he stays fit and gets back on the scoresheet some more then he’ll surely be in Stoke a while longer yet. Judging by his tweets, he’s already pretty grateful for the way they offered him a chance to get out of the mire.
Stoke’s First 5 Games:
- Middlesbrough 1-1 Stoke
- Stoke 1-4 Man City
- Everton 1-0 Stoke
- Stoke 0-4 Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 4-1 Stoke
Stoke’s Next 5 Games:
- Stoke 1-1 West Brom
- Man United 1-1 Stoke
- Stoke 2-0 Sunderland
- Hull 0-2 Stoke
- Stoke 3-1 Swansea
Fair bit of contrast in that. I enjoyed getting an extended look at Ramadan Sobhi too, their teenaged Egyptian winger. Signed him for about £5m in July, he set up an own goal in his first real game against Swansea. Looks the goods, even if he’s raw as hell.
Then we have West Ham, a team whose sloppy start has had a few bright moments but nothing to fire them onwards like Stoke are getting at. There’s no Winston Reid for them because he’s out suspended and they still look like if it ain’t Payet then it’s nobody when they go forward. Missed chances cost them the chance to make a game of it against Everton and if they got lumped by Romelu Lukaku well Bony is a striker of a very similar mould. The Hammers are starting to settle into their new home but the two Premier League wins (out of five) that they’ve managed there have each been 1-0ers against Bournemouth and Sunderland, neither of whom travel well.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Stoke
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
And thus Sunderland now own the worst start to a Premier League season ever. Well, sort of because Portsmouth once had -5 points after ten games but that was because they entered administration due to financial worries and that didn’t actually happen until March so there’s no need to backdate it.
Nope, the record is Sunderland’s and if you thought the fourth goal they conceded to Arsenal didn’t matter then you’re wrong because that goal was the difference between being better or worse than Manchester City’s 1995-96 campaign – the only other occasion of a mere two points in the first 10 games. Swindon Town (1993-94), Crystal Palace (2013-14) and Everton (1994-95) are the teams to have only stumped three points and there have been nine teams to only manage 4. What’s interesting (and hopeful) is that seven of the 13 teams to gather four or fewer points at this stage didn’t even get relegated. So there you go, Sunderland fans. Put the knives back in the drawer.
They’re also one of 11 teams ever not to have won a game in the first ten of a season (this is all during the Premier League era).
All of which leads me to say that no, I shan’t be picking Bournemouth, a team that has only lost once at home so far and it was against Man United, to do anything but beat Sunderland here. Apparently Moyes needs four points from this game and the one vs Hull. Beating Hull they can maybe do but Bournemouth are a well-organised team. They are going to punish silly mistakes. And Sunderland are going to make those. It’s ah… it’s not looking good.
Speaking of, Moyesy has a touchline ban for this one.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bourney 2-1
Burnley vs Crystal Palace
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
Here is where I make my shrine to Tom Heaton. I mean, I’d heard Burnley fans getting annoyed at how little he was getting the recognition for how well he was playing but, like, come on. At least until he got his breakout game against the club he once represented in youth grades. His 11 saves vs Man United are an equal record for this season… tying the 11 he made against Southampton (those are two teams who seem to have a knack for dominating games and not scoring).
Most Saves This Season:
- Tom Heaton (Burnley) – 57
- Jordan Pickford (Sunderland) – 36
- Ben Foster (West Brom) – 34
- Adrian (West Ham) – 33
- Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester) – 33
- Artur Boruc (Bournemouth) – 32
- Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea) – 31
- Heurelho Gomes (Watford) – 28
- Petr Cech (Arsenal) – 26
- David De Gea (Man Utd) – 24
Mate, it’s not even close. Oh look and he’s a top bloke too!
Crystal Palace are gonna give them plenty more, there isn’t a team in the Premier League that relies on the old fashioned cross into the box more than Pardew’s Palace. They’ve dropped three in a row and will be really targeting this match for something more – they’re a team that seems to play well on the road as well, where they can simplify the approach and play a little more on the counter attack. Burnley’s last four games they’ve face 18, 34, 21 and 38 shots. They’ve had possession totals of 33%, 35%, 35% and 28%. The thing about soaking heaps of pressure is that it usually tolls more often than not.
Wildcard’s Pick: Palace 1-0
Chelsea vs Everton
6.30am Sunday (NZT)
Gotta say it, Chelsea are the form team in the Premier League. The only team with four wins in a row and they haven’t conceded a goal in any of them. 2-0 vs Hull, 3-0 vs Leicester, 4-0 vs Man United and 2-0 vs Southampton. That is no easy schedule either… apart from Hull of course. Not a bad way to respond to defeats against Liverpool and Arsenal, that’s for sure.
The change to the three-man defence has been the thing that everyone’s pointing to… because, yeah, that’s what it’s been. A little more specific though, and David Luiz - icantbelieveimsayingthis - has been really good. He’s a player who’s perfectly suited to playing in a back three where there’s cover around him so his signing was a bit of a clue that Conte was biding his time before transitioning into his favoured formation but that doesn’t cover the fact that he’s playing without error. The guy’s been a laughing stock at times but those times have been in a Brazil or PSG side where he’s had way too much licence and desire to do… more or less everything. Look at him on the surface level and he’s a tall and strong bloke with much better than decent ability at his feet. He’s got the tools, as they say.
Those blokes know whassup.
Hey Lukaku up against Chelsea again, that’ll be fun. Despite that Everton scored three times both games vs Chelsea last season and he didn’t get any of them. In fact it’d appear he’s never scored against his old team before – probably because he was so often on loan and not allowed to play against them. However it goes, Luiz vs Lukaku will be stunning.
Good to see Ross Barkley striking back with a top performance. He seems like a fairly resilient guy and to be honest if Koeman can get him playing with more energy off the ball then that’ll only be a positive for him in the future. Still think that Everton defence has the odd issue when they have to go beyond the Coleman/Jagielka/Williams/Baines preference. Diego Costa will get one and one of those midfielders another. Everton haven’t won at Stamford Bridge since 1994.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chelsea 2-0
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur
1.00am Monday (NZT)
Leicester City won the Premier League and Spurs still can’t finish ahead of Arsenal. The Chicago Cubs just won the World Series though so odd things do keep happening. Speaking to a Gunner the other day, he straight up said that he and every other Arsenal fan he knew had accepted that they were gonna finish below Spurs last season, that St Totteringham’s day was done. And then they choked. Maybe if they’d beaten Arsenal just once last season, you know. Instead of drawing both times.
A draw at the Emirates is nothing scrappy for Spurs though. they lost 3-0 the first time they played there and have only won once in 13 matches – a 3-2 victory in 2010 in which Younes Kaboul capped off a famous comeback in the 85th minute.
Yeah but overall they’ve been outscored by 33 goals to 16 at the ground. It’s a bit of a graveyard for them and they’re hardly rolling up at an ideal time with Arsenal looking bloody rampant and Spurs themselves having the odd problem without Harry Kane or Toby Alderweireld. They’ve figured out a way to keep that defence nice and stingy but there’s nothing happening goals-wise. Nothing at all, that defeat to Bayer Leverkusen leaves them in big trouble in the Champions League – though the good news is that if they drop into the Europa League they shouldn’t have to play their matches at Wembley any more. Yay.
Since beating Man City in the best result of their campaign so far, Spurs have scored three goals in six games in all comps. Only conceding five at the same time so again they’re eeking things out… but that won’t win you a title. It won’t even get you into the Champions League again. There is the thing that of all the top six teams, Spurs were the only ones that rested on what they had, not making significant investments over the summer. They bought guys like Wanyama, Sissoko and Janssen to compete for places and the first two are showing they’re worthy of winning those places but there wasn’t a marquee signing in there. I mean, I guess you’d have to say Sissoko might have been, though he’s not that much of an improvement on anyone and Erik Lamela’s more attacking nature might be more beneficial at the moment anyway. N’Koudou was a replacement for N’Jie, nothing lost or gained and there’s nothing else there to talk about. Most importantly they didn’t bring in a striker that could run Harry Kane down. Janssen is 22, he’s being developed for the future but with Kane out they need him supplying goals in the now. That ain’t happening.
Whereas Arsenal finally went the other way, buying Lucas Perez and playing Alexis Sanchez up front to wonderful rewards and so when Olly Giroud was out they didn’t miss him a damn drop. And when he came back he scored three goals in 67 minutes. Of course, now they have to hear all about how Perez was a waste of money and a bust of a transfer. Because naturally players either deliver immediately on the hype or they never will. Guys, Arsene Wenger’s been at this longer than you have. He knows that new players need time to assimilate. He’s done it with all his midfielders, Elneny and Xhaka especially, and now the benefits are showing with a rotating cast of absolute guns… pardon the pun.
Honestly, I kinda think Arsenal’s squad could be better even than Man City’s now. That might depend on whether Mesut Ozil is better than Kevin De Bruyne though. Hmm… nah. And neither is Aaron Ramsey better than David Silva. But they run them close!
Watch that again, but instead of drooling over his touch, just stare at the hapless defenders literally falling over themselves. Now if he can do this against Spurs on the weekend then away we go. I’m gonna log a draw though, simply because otherwise I won’t have picked a single one this week and hey Spurs always seem to draw anyway.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Hull City vs Southampton
3.15am Monday (NZT)
Maybe Hull should go back to having Jake Livermore in defence then. Having him and Tom Huddlestone in the middle of the park really isn’t all that flash. Not about to strike fear into N’Golo Kante or Fernandinho. Not even gonna strike fear into several Championship teams. I mean, I’d legit argue that Newcastle United are a better team right here and now than either Sunderland or Hull and possibly Swansea too.
Hull are jumping on the three-back defence thing too though for them they kinda have to coz if they don’t stack the backline they’re not keeping anyone out. Funny that they’re banking on a bunch of Spurs rejects to get them through. Livermore, Huddlestone, Mason… yuck.
Southampton host Inter Milan on the Thursday night, so that’s a short turnaround. Shouldn’t make a difference – they could pick a whole new XI and it’d still be better than what Hull have to offer. Steve Bruce resigned for a reason, remember. Lucky for everyone there’s an international break following this round of games.
7/10 for the twitter creativity as well.
Wildcard’s Pick: Southampton 2-0
Liverpool vs Watford
3.15am Monday (NZT)
Here you go:
There isn’t a more exciting team to watch this season than Liverpool, no doubt about that. I remember Kloppy saying something last year about 5-all draws and 4-3 wins and all that and how they’re his favourites and when you watch this team get to work you can see he wasn’t having us on either. There’s no hesitation at all, straight on the attack if there’s half a chance. Throw ‘em all forward. Defence? Nah bro we’ll just outscore them.
One issue is that some of the goals they’re leaking aren’t a case of getting hit on the reverse-counter, they’re individual errors that are so avoidable. Especially from their keepers this season but apparently Loris Karius has been practicing with rugby pads to help him adapt to the physicality of some of them Premier League strikers.
Love the ingenuity.
Pour one out for Danny Ings as well. Just made his return from a long term injury and he goes and does an ACL. Hard to see him really coming back from another one of those. It’s not a big issue for Liverpool because they have better players but for him, that’s tragic. Sucks, really.
This guy sucks too. Can’t even beat a robot in goal. Sort it out, ya muppet.
Hmm to be honest… that thing looks tough, haha. But then when you miss the target altogether it’s hard to have any complaints. KEEP IT LOOOOOW.
Rightio, Watford tripping up to Anfield, this one feels rather paint by numbers. That’s the cool thing about being a high-volume team like Liverpool: it’s easier to blow the weaker teams out of the water. Now Watford are pretty decent. They’re up there ahead of Man United and Southampton (two clubs who Liverpool fans tend to have a lot to do with), four games unbeaten too even if none of those were against top teams. Each of these two have conceded 13 goals in 10 games… but Liverpool have scored ten more.
Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 6-5, just to be fun
Swansea City vs Manchester United
4.00am Monday (NZT)
Haha and now we have Mourinho’s lot. I’ll put it this way, if they don’t beat Swansea then they’ve officially got a problem. They’re already four PL games winless but while everyone else is panicking about something like this…
… I’m feeling more like that ain’t a thing too likely to keep recurring. Like, you pop 38 shots in every game then you’ll win 95% of them. They actually played really well against Burnley. They must have, for 72% possession, 38 shots and 19 corners. Paul Pogba was superb, Mata was pulling strings around the Burnley area and even Ibra, who scuffed on so many chances, was otherwise great. Getting into the right spaces, linking up and all that. If two of those shots he’d had weren’t then well saved by Ol’ Man Heaton then he’d have been getting man of the match honours and 9/10s in the papers. That’s the way it goes sometimes.
Although you can’t deny that Zlatan’s form has been down. For one thing, it doesn’t make sense that Jose feels he has to play him for every damn minute – I get that the bloke wants to play but he’s not 21 anymore, he’ll be better with a rest here or there. Zlatan and De Gea are the two Man Utd players to have played all 900 PL mins for them. Blind and Pogba have played 810, each missing a game (Pogba’s being the first game before he was signed).
The worry is that when his teams are struggling, Jose Mourinho has a way of acting out. He becomes the centre of attention and that all does nothing to help the situation, just adding more sideshows. Now he’s got a touchline ban for this game. Hell, where’s Wayne Rooney when you need him?
Wildcard’s Pick: Man United 3-1
Leicester City vs West Bromwich Albion
5.30am Monday (NZT)
Four clean sheets in the Champions League outta four, the Foxes are remembered for the speed and finishing of Vardy and Mahrez, plus the workrate and flashes of flair from Kante and Drinkwater but people often ignore that for most of the run-in to the title they were a grind it out defensive team. This ain’t out of the ordinary and with dudes like Ahmed Musa and Islam Slimani coming in they’ve got options up front to work with. Plus Shinji Okazaki is getting more of a run and that’s never not a good thing. No striker in the league works harder than him.
Umm, I just ignored Swansea so I think I’ll ignore WBA as well, sorry lads. Do something interesting and we’ll talk. Or… I will. About you. That’s the deal.
Wildcard’s Pick: Leicester 1-0