The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 12
Last Week: 4/10
Overall: 55/110
Manchester United vs Arsenal
Sunday 1.30am NZT
Oh yes, the greatest rivalry of the Premier League era once again. Keane vs Vieira. Van Nistelrooy vs Henry. Fergie vs Wenger… only one of those remains though.
I don’t know how much stock people still put in his stats given the bloke’s spent the last 15 months breaking them all but Jose Mourinho has still never lost to Arsenal in the Premier League. Arsene did sneak one in the Community Shield two seasons ago but that’s about it. No love lost between the pair either but I’d rather we didn’t go focussing on handshakes again, please?
So the obvious matchup issue is that Zlatan Ibrahimovic is suspended. That might be a problem or it might give United the chance to succeed without the Big Swede, showing them it’s okay to rest the bloke every once in a while. Marcus Rashford is no mug himself, he scored a double on Premier League debut in this fixture last season. It looks like Herrera and Pogba are building a great midfield combo which will hopefully save us having to watch Marouane Fellaini play spoiler as has happened in most other big games this season. Get Juan Mata in at ten as well, that’ll go well.
And for the Gunners, the team’s been picking itself most of the year except now they have guys banging down the door. Does Granit Xhaka get a run? How about Olivier Giroud? That’ll be one to watch across all these games actually, with Alexis Sanchez one of a few notable South American players flying back from World Cup qualifiers. Long way to travel after all, especially for the early game on return.
The best thing about Arsenal these days is that they have a set back four and a stable goalie. Not too many teams can say that – what’s Man United’s top choice back four, for example? Does it include the left back that the manager’s publically shamed multiple times? For Arsenal there’s no dilemma: Cech in goal, with Bellerin / Koscielny / Mustafi / Monreal. They’re fourth in the league with only 11 goals conceded and four game in that first game vs Liverpool where Rob Holding and Calum Chambers had to play CB. Of course, Bellerin's out for a month now... so good luck with that.
Gotta say, I hated the way that Jose called out Chris Smalling and Luke Shaw for being soft. I know he’s not been shy with that stuff before, he uses it as motivation, but when Shaw’s coming back from a potentially career-threatening broken leg and Smalling, it was later revealed (probably deliberately and in response), had been playing through pain killers with a broken foot that’ll keep him out a few weeks now, there’s nothing there to gain. He wants his players to be tough, to play through pain. Sure. But pick your moments, mate.
United need the win a little more but they don’t strike as a team that’s ruthless enough to get it right about now. Things change quickly and the beauty of these fixtures is that they can go in any direction. However I can see Arsenal taking a point away from home and I can see Man United not having a choice. I can also see Jose Mourinho doing that annoying thing where he picks his team directly according to the opposition instead of backing them to outperform.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Sunderland vs Hull City
Sunday 4.00am NZT
- Alan Shearer – 260 goals
- Wayne Rooney – 194
- Andrew Cole – 187
- Frank Lampard – 177
- Thierry Henry – 175
- Robbie Fowler – 163
- Michael Owen – 150
- Jermain Defoe – 149
- Les Ferdinand – 149
- Teddy Sheringham – 146
Oh hey Jerry, how you doin’ all the way up there in eighth? Score here against the team with the worst defence in the Premier League and he cracks that one-fiddy mark. By worst defence, I mean those 24 goals they’ve conceded. Personnel-wise they’ve got some really solid players but sadly not enough to fill out a backline. Curtis Davies, bro. You gotta hand in that transfer request in April. Don’t forget it.
In their eleventh game of the season, the Black Cats finally won their first game – taking Bournemouth 2-1 and coming from behind to do so as well. Who’d have thought that Victor Anichebe might be the saviour too? Not me, that’s for sure. By the way – this is another reason why Bournemouth aren’t ready to do anything special this season. They had almost 70% possession and 22 shots but couldn’t make it count against a winless team.
Both of these teams will be relegated at the end of the season, things carrying on as they are. And there’s nothing that Hull can do in a hurry that’ll allow me to back them away from home. Losing both Abel Hernandez and Will Keane to injury pretty much ensures that they have no way of scoring more than a paltry goal here or there and honestly I’m still unsure how Southampton lost to them before the international break. They’re a weird team, those Saints. Even more than Man United and Spurs they have a way of dominating a game completely and then not getting the result for it.
Hull City’s three-man defence (following the trend) does mean there’s a little extra to them (and it means their wingbacks are slightly more comfortable) which could trip the odd team up but they’ve just got nothing up top. They needed Hernandez to score 15 goals for them to have a chance this season. He has one and he won’t play again until December. The one hope they have for a bit of creativity: Robert Snodgrass.
Wildcard’s Pick: Sunderland 2-1
Watford vs Leicester City
Sunday 4.00am NZT
The worst away team in the Premier League with one point from five games and a -10 goal difference. Yeah, those would be your defending champions, folks.
It’s a unique situation in Leicester though, they’re trying to balance the expectations that come with drastically exceeding your expectations. Thing is, up until last game they were also undefeated at home and then they went and lost one to West Brom and who knows what the hell to think of that. The Foxes are a defensive team, which people ignore when they look at Jamie Vardy running around and scoring/setting up goals against Spain in an England jersey. Yet there’s something about West Brom’s particular way of attack that’s seen LCFC concede twice to WBA the last four times they’ve played. The difference last time was that they only scored once themselves.
Watford, meanwhile, are a stocky old team. Quite a few goals conceded but then they score a bunch too, making for what ought to be pretty entertaining games. Yet… they’re not really. I dunno what it is, they were more of a galvanised unit, more enjoyable under Sanches Flores but Mazzarri is getting better results. Meh.
Leicester haven’t lost to Watford since they were a couple of hopeful Champo teams, fighting for a spot in the playoff final in 2013. Watford overturned a 1-0 deficit in the first leg to win 3-1 in the second, the deciding goal coming deep into injury time in the most stunning way imaginable. Leicester missed a penalty that would’ve surely put them through and then Troy Deeney scores on the break.
Sheer insanity. “Do not scratch your eyes!”
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Sunday 4.00am NZT
Pretty hard to see Palace getting anything from this one, even at home. Have to throw that out there from the beginning, I just can’t imagine City taking anything but three points from this one. I kinda like the theory about international breaks that they reset things. They put us back fairly close to the subscribed centre so the big teams get the most benefit – they’re less likely to stumble when they’ve had a rest rather than those ones where the fixtures pile up and they get a little complacent. Or maybe I’m completely wrong, who knows. Can’t honestly be bothered going through all the stats to prove it, but it makes sense to me as a hunch.
I’ve been fiddling around with some team goal scoring stats and Crystal Palace, it may interest you to know, have been outscored 11-5 in the first half of games so far. Only Leicester and Watford are as bad as that and only Hull City (-7) are worse. Man City go steady with it all, scoring 13 goals in first halves and 12 in second halves with five conceded on both sides. They’ve also scored 7 in the final 15 minutes of games which is a PL leading mark.
Other things of note:
- Chelsea are the only team to have outscored opponents in every 15 minute split.
- Arsenal and West Brom are yet to concede in the opening 15 minutes of games.
- Hull, Leicester and Sunderland are yet to score in the opening 15 minutes of games and none of that trio has even scored within 30 minutes of a game.
- Man United are up 10-5 in first halves but trail 6-8 in second halves.
- Liverpool have scored 23 of their 30 goals between 16-60 minutes.
- Boro’s late equaliser against City was the first goal scored by them or their opponents in the final 15 of one of their matches.
- West Ham have been outscored 10 goals to 3 in the 15 minutes before and after half time.
- 11 of Watford’s 15 goals have come in the second half.
- Burnley are +3 GD in first halves, -7 in second halves.
- Jurgen Klopp must give the best HT speeches, coz Liverpool are winning 7-1 between minutes 45-60.
- Southampton, typically, have a dead even GD for both halves.
Wildcard’s Pick: Man City 3-0
Everton vs Swansea City
Sunday 4.00am NZT
If any team needed the break it was Everton. Such a good start, taking 13 points from their first five games and since then they’ve won only once – officially hitting their arses on the floor when they were smacked 5-0 by Chelsea. The three man defence was clearly a misstep, not so much coz of the defenders themselves (though there was nothing going with their wingbacks – they were either all the way back defending or they were allowing Chelsea’s wingers to thrive, not exactly the right balance) but mostly down to a midfield that couldn’t hang. Good as Gareth Barry’s been this season, a 35 year old central midfielder who wasn’t ever a guaranteed England starter in his prime is bound to have the odd off game.
I’m gonna suggest that it maybe isn’t a coincidence that their worst performance of the season came with Idrissa Gueye out of the team. Good news is, he’s served his suspension for now. By the way, five yellows in ten games is a bit much, ain’t it lad?
Players to have reached the five-yellow limit already:
- Adam Smith (Bournemouth)
- Claudio Yacob (West Brom)
- Gareth Barry (Everton)
- Gaston Ramirez (Middlesbrough)
- Idrissa Gueye (Everton)
- Jonny Evans (West Brom)
- Jordan Henderson (Liverpool)
- Jose Holebas (Watford)
- Marko Arnautovic (Stoke)
That’s just in the Premier League, so you know. A few others have also picked up League Cup bookings. Winston Reid for one, he’s served a suspension for hitting his five tickets already. Yeah, Gary Barry’s on that list too, he got his fifth against Chelsea and will miss this game.
Swansea are average though. They’ve got a couple of stunners out there, Gylfi Sigurdsson being numero uno amongst them but, like, they sold Ashley Williams who’d held them together for ages and never replaced him. Their defence against Man United was abysmal. It was horrific. They made Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Paul Pogba look like Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Paul Pogba!
Wildcard’s Pick: Everton 3-1
Stoke City vs Bournemouth
Sunday 4.00am NZT
Bournemouth are the only team around that still runs a 1970s defensive line. By that I mean their names are Smith, Francis, Cook and Daniels.
Spurs haven’t lost all season, 11 games, and Arsenal haven’t lost since the opening weekend. Those are the two longest current unbeaten streaks, obviously. But you know who’s third on that list? Well… it’s Liverpool. But Stoke City are fourth with 6 games since their last L.
This is insane, here’s the league table since October 1:
| P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | +16 | 15 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 13 |
| Stoke | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 |
| Arsenal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 11 |
| West Ham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| Watford | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| Spurs | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| Burnley | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
Based on that you’d have to say that Stoke are gonna run away with this one.
Wildcard’s Pick: Stoke 2-0
Southampton vs Liverpool
Sunday 4.00am NZT
Usually on Football Manager, you’re not allowed to pick a feeder team from the same division but Liverpool get to play against theirs twice a season. It’s Sadio Mane’s first trip back to St Marys. Adam Lallana will probably be fit to play against his old team after going off injured for England (veeery precautionary – you could tell it was a friendly) and Nathaniel Clyne ought play as well. Dunno what happened to Ricky Lambert, I think he’s gone back to working at the beetroot factory. (Nah jokes, he’s at Cardiff).
Funny fact about Lambert: He scored as many goals (3) in 11 England caps as he did in 36 total Liverpool appearances.
Stink for Liverpool, the Premier League making them play two times over New Years – versus Man City and Sunderland – with kick-offs within 46 hours of each other. Everyone’s congested at that time but less than two days between footy is bloody harsh. City have the same problem but their travel isn’t as harsh.
Jurgen Klopp: “Forty-eight hours between two games – how does this work? How do you prepare a team for this? Do you say: ‘Only 50% against City because we have Sunderland on Monday.’ It doesn’t sound like it is right. Everyone is asking: ‘Why is England not too successful in big tournaments?’ Ask what other big countries are doing at this time of year – they have their legs on the sofa and are watching English football.”
So can Southampton’s stingy defence do what only Man United have done so far and blunt the Kloppers? Eh, it ain’t impossible. Man Utd pretty much blunted themselves in the process, the best way to beat Liverpool is probably to take them at their own game and say: ‘you wanna score three? Well we’ve seen your defence play and we’ll score four. Maybe even five for good measure.’ That is absolutely not Southampton’s way of doing things though. Some team out there is gonna take up the challenge and expose Liverpool’s defensive worries but it won’t be Southampton.
Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs West Ham United
Sunday 6.30am NZT
I really like this one. Could be a great game, what with West Ham desperate for points and Spurs kinda the same, to be honest. Getting a point off Arsenal was nice but four consecutive draws not so much. Supposing that Harry Kane’s good to go he’ll be a big boost though. 15 goals in his last 15 games against London opposition. Now there’s a Tottenham lad if ever there was one.
West Ham were on the verge of something great a few month ago as they pushed the Champions League spots with a few games still to go. Then they slipped well back into the Europa spots and didn’t even make the main stages of that as they tripped up in qualifying. Now the new stadium that stood to herald in that new era has been more like a graveyard and the poor buggers really can’t sustain too many down swings and still expect Dimitri Payet to stay. The second he leaves? They’re mid-table at best. Even with him they’re struggling and he’s setting up all their goals. Slaven Bilic is a smart man who’ll come up with something, the three-man defence looks good for them just like everyone else who’s tried it – the worry there is that they make so many dumb mistakes that they don’t get the rewards for their effort. That one they conceded against Stoke was a shocker.
Positive thinking now, it’s great to see Aaron Cresswell make his England debut. Really good player and he’s bounced back well from that pre-season injury too. Everyone at full fitness, Luke Shaw should be comfortably the best left back in England but that’s a huge ‘if’ and Cresswell is there to give Danny Rose a good run for his money (Ryan Bertrand goes well too, don’t forget).
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Spurs
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea
Monday 5.00am NZT
Ahhhemmm, just gonna… umm, leave this here foryoutoread…
Boro have snatched draws from both Arsenal and Man City in the last few months, so who knows maybe they’ll be the ones to end Chelsea’s win streak? Or at least score a goal past David Luiz and the lads. Full disclosure I’m not all that confident that Boro are equipped in any way to withstand Eden Hazard and Diego Costa the way they’ve played recently. Still, good to see Aitor Karanka’s found something in this squad – I was hopeful at the start they’d be able to survive but for a while there it was really hard to imagine. Now they’re back in the hopeful category (it helps that the current bottom three have been awful).
Yeah but nah, they’re not prying this Chelsea train off the rails.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-0 Chelsea
West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley
Tuesday 9.00am NZT
They always save the glamour fixtures ‘til last.
I’m trying to think of something to write about this game… gimme a sec.
…
Umm, tell you what. Let me watch it first and I’ll get back to you.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0