The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 13
Last Week: 5/10
Overall: 60/120
Burnley vs Manchester City
1.30am Sunday (NZT)
From out of the wilderness a hero has returned to us. One that we thought was lost, one that we thought banished from ever showing his face again, doomed to walk the earth in exile and isolation. But no longer…
YAYAAAAA!!!
Well I’ll be damned, aye? Didn’t see that one coming I’ll tell you that much. Didn’t even hear the whisperings until the team sheet was released but there he was, #42, back in the Manchester City starting XI. Yaya Toure had been banished as his agent Dimitri Seluk feuded with Pep Guardiola and the Spaniard promised not to pick him until he got an apology. You know this, it’s all been said before. But Pep never got an apology and here was Yaya, not only playing but scoring twice in a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace.
It sounds like Yaya himself might have broken the tension in a chat with Pep, which seems proactive of the lad. But ah, we’d better pump the brakes on the YAYA IS BACK stuff. This was against Crystal Palace, a team which really doesn’t have the best midfield balance. They attack down the wings and they’ve got a sketchy backline at the moment. It was the ideal game for Toure to have an impact without being exposed for his workrate or defence or any of that. He got to be a presence in the box and a bit of steel pushing forward around Nolito, Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling – all fellas listed at under 70kgs (!) while Yaya weighs a solid 90kgs, although apparently he’s lost a bit of that in trying to earn his place back. Even Fernandinho, the defensive midfield maestro that he is, is a lightweight.
Moral of the story being that this was all good timing and Yaya lived up to the billing, however he won’t be getting the chance to do this over and over. He’s still a backup option. Nice to see him get a hero’s moment though. He deserves that after all this time – and the way that his teammates celebrated with him doesn’t lie either.
Okay, Burnley went and lost 4-0 to West Brom. Now feel free to argue with this one but that doesn’t sound like a good result to me, there. They fell behind early because of a few defensive errors and then once it was 2-0 after like 15 minutes they didn’t know what to do. Chasing the game and digging themselves a bigger hole against a team that specialises in sucking you in without the ball. A bit naïve, safe to say.
Especially since Burnley are a team whose best performances have seen them chuck nine or ten dudes behind the ball and they play on the break. So with that in mind, this is potentially a better matchup for them, funny to say. Not that that gives them much hope of holding City out. City are more clinical than their neighbours, you give them 30-odd shots and they’ll beat you 5-0. That won’t happen here but I’d imagine we see a comfortable win for City all the same. It’s in Burnley, which might even help them – there hasn’t been a Premier League victory in Manchester since late September. Both United and City’s last three home games have all been draws.
Good from City, getting the result they needed in Germany vs Borussia Monchengladbach. A draw means they’re through because the Champions League these days judges tie breakers based on head to heads and City pumped them 4-0 at home. Second place in a group with Barcelona, if you’re Arsenal then second place is another reason to expect a tough draw and a R16 exit but for City, yeah not so bad. It’s looking a solid chance that Real Madrid will also finish second in their group while Bayern are guaranteed it. No Barca, no Madrid and no Bayern – plus no Leicester – in the next round. That’s job done right there. Beyond the round of 16 it’s anyone’s game but it’s this one where the seedings can be so crucial and MCI are in a decent place with that.
Also, I still hate that City alt strip they wear in the Champions League but it turns out there’s a worse jersey out there in the lower leagues.
Wildcard’s Pick: City 2-0
Leicester City vs Middlesbrough
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
Speaking of Champions League triumphs, raise a glass to the Foxes. Say what you will about the stumbling Premier League stuff but you only have to look as far as Spurs to see what can happen when you don’t get the balance right. Leicester know this is their one chance to play UCL and they’re giving it everything. Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez are completely different players in that competition. Although… they did concede a goal against Brugge so… yeah.
First thing about the Foxes in Europe: they got a favourable group. That’s definitely helped, not having to play Barcelona or PSG or whoever (like City and Arsenal have). But it’s still the Champions League and Leicester have taken more points from those five games (13 points, 4 W/1 D/0 L) than they have in league play, incredibly (12 points, 3 W/3 D/6 L).
With the next round now guaranteed, they have Middlesbrough and Sunderland in a row and it could be that some of that focus shifts now on getting a couple important wins to build up a buffer before the holiday period. Look, here’s the benefit that Leicester has which no other Champions League team outta England shares: It doesn’t matter. They won the title last season. As long as they don’t get relegated in this one it doesn’t matter. If they’d also crashed out of the Champs League then maybe that wouldn’t have been the case but they didn’t so it’s all worth it. Oh and the talk that winning their group could book them a go against Real Madrid or Bayern Munich now? I can’t think of a tie the Foxes would rather have. Playing at the friggin’ Bernabeu would be a dream.
Boro, guys. I’ll keep riding with ya coz I’ve already kinda boxed myself in there but how about a few more goals, aye? There have been six total goals in the last five games for Middlesbrough (1 for, 5 against – but that includes a 0-0 with Arsenal, a 1-1 with City and a 0-1 vs Chelsea so they’re sticking with some really good teams). 23 all up, which I’m assuming before I’ve even crunched the numbers is the fewest of any team. Here goes…
Total Goals in Games Ft. These Teams:
- 23 – Middlesbrough
- 24 – Southampton
- 26 – Tottenham
- 30 – Bournemouth
- 30 – Everton
Phew. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool games have seen 43 goals which is the most of any sucker. Man City’s games are at 38 while Arsenal and Hull are at 37.
Wildcard’s Pick: Leicester 1-0
Swansea City vs Crystal Palace
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
Swansea City: 11 games without a Premier League win
Crystal Palace: 5 consecutive PL defeats
Those are the two longest current streaks of their type – even Hull and Sunderland have snuck wins lately. As such these jokers really make it hard to pick either of them. What’s interesting is that despite their rubbish-ness, both teams are still scoring goals. Across their five defeats, only the first one saw Palace kept scoreless – a 1-0 loss at home to West Ham. Since then they’ve lost 3-1 to Leicester, 4-2 to Liverpool, 3-2 to Burnley and 2-1 to Man City. Yaya Toure’s winner came in the 83rd minute while Ashley Barnes ruined a 2-0 comeback in the Burnley game when he stole it in injury time. So they’ve been close despite it all. Their problem, like Swansea’s, is a leaky as hell defence.
Swansea have only scored 11 goals in 12 games. Palace have 17, which is shockingly tied-sixth in the entire division (as many as Man Utd and more than Everton, Leicester or Southampton). The top five scoring teams are the top five teams on the ladder, making this even more of an anomaly. Six of those 11 goals for the Swans have come via Gylfi Sigurdsson (3 goals, 3 assists). He’s the one genuinely creative player in their team and the one bloke you can really build around. With his vision and his delivery you’ve always got a shot at scoring if you can limit the other fellas.
Which they can’t do. 1-0 up with less than two minutes to play, Seamus Coleman looped a header in for the late Everton equaliser. That was how they went last week, the lapses showing through at the end after a valiant effort. The two games before that one, Swansea had lost 3-1 – to Stoke and MUFC. Alfie Mawson and Mike van der Hoorn played centre back. Against Everton, The American changed both of them with Fabio Fernandez and Jordi Amat starting instead. Clever work, the pair played much better than the dudes they replaced. Also they changed shape to a 4-3-3 with Sigurdsson playing as a false-ish nine and I’d argue as important as anything they got Jack Cork back in that midfield. There are four players I’d rank as must-starts for Swansea: Sigurdsson, Fabianski, Cork and Fer. All four started against Everton and it was their best performance in at least a month.
If they stick with 4-3-3 they might be vulnerable to the Palace wide-assault. They also seem a little closer to defensive parity than the Eagles, whose manager Alan Pardew is certainly not one to keep his sheets clean. Nudge nudge, wink wink. I can make a case for any of three results
Wildcard’s Pick: Swansea 2-1
Hull City vs West Bromwich Albion
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
Michael Dawson: “This squad is good enough to stay in the Premier League. It’s going to be a fight and there are a number of other teams in the fight but we’ll keep going and keep believing.”
With all due respect, lad, I’m gonna politely disagree. Dieumerci Mbokani is about the only striker they have left that isn’t injured and while he’s not the worst, he’s also nowhere near good enough to provide them 20 goals and if it ain’t him then who? They’re completely handcuffed until the transfer window in January and even then they might not wanna spend any money. That lack of ambition was the main reason Steve Bruce left after all. They started 17 year old left back Josh Tymon last week, a player who’s a pretty decent prospect but he’s also still a scholar making a mere £160 per week with the Tigers. There’s just nobody left there.
Meanwhile over in West Brom… is it crazy to say they might be pretty good this season? Nacer Chadli and Matty Phillips are the kinds of transfers that most teams wouldn’t bother with but with WBA they’ve brought an element of flair and creativity to the team without risking the defensive structure they’re so known for. Salomon Rondon has never played better than he’s doing these days – he was superb against Burnley and not just in his hold-up play but superb all over – and you already know they can defend. Darren Fletcher is a leader and a Premier League champion and in another lifetime Ben Foster might have been a long-term England #1.
Wins over Leicester and Burnley have rocketed the Baggies up to ninth on the table now. Two bad weeks following two good ones and that could all change though let’s not be pessimistic. This is West Brom after all, the most pragmatic team in the Premier League… and yet they scored four against Burnley after scoring four against West Ham in September. The last time they scored four in a game… was Sept. 2014 in a 4-0 win over Burnley. Saido Berahino scored a brace. That was in the pre-Pulis days. Over the past two seasons, WBA have only scored more than twice in a game on two occasions and they didn’t do it at all last season (!) and across those two campaigns they were kept scoreless on 27 of 76 occasions, which works out to roughly one in every three games. This season they’ve been blanked on three occasions outta 12, so one in four. 25% vs 35%. I spot a trend.
Tony Pulis on foreign managers: “That’s the way it is, they come into the country, they’re sexy, they’re new, they’re bright. That’s fine, brilliant, not a problem for me. I’ll listen to them, they say Klopp trains them three times a day in pre-season, absolutely amazing. I’d never have thought of that.”
Ah, Tony. Never change.
Wildcard’s Pick: West Brom 1-0
Liverpool vs Sunderland
4.00am Sunday (NZT)
This would fall somewhere in the category of ‘no contest’. Hey Sunderland, you managed to beat Bournemouth and Hull? Yeah okay, let’s see how you do against the league’s top scorers. They were kept scoreless by Southampton (who’ve a brilliant defence so no damage) last week but before that the Reds have already scored 30 league goals and those goals have been dished out among 10 different scorers – twice as many as this time last season. Oh and Daniel Sturridge hasn’t even scored yet (in the Premier League, that is – he has 4 in the EFL Cup).
Please no comparing this team to the 2013-14 edition. That team scored lots of goals, 101 of them, but they scored most of them because of Luis Suarez. The Toothy One had 31 goals and 12 assists and you can bet plenty others came thanks to the freedom he allowed others with his defensive gravitational pull. He was absolutely stunning that season. Despite solid contributions from Stevie G and Dan Sturridge, they were built around one superstar player that season. This time they’re a true team in every way. There’s no standout player. Coutinho, Firmino, Lallana… all have been great. Mane, Henderson and Wijnaldum pretty handy themselves. Neither team can defend either but there’s a difference: Brendan Rodgers’ team didn’t know how to defend, while Jurgen Klopp’s chooses not to so that they can keep on scoring goals.
I’m starting to think Liverpool have the best YouTube channel of any Premier League side. Shame about the terrible Scouse accents is all.
Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 4-0
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
6.30am Sunday (NZT)
First thing to say, I don’t think Spurs can win this. They’ve only beaten Chelsea once in the last 14 times they’ve played them and skipping over a few League Cup wins you have to go back to 1990 for the last time Spurs beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the league. And it wasn’t even the Premier League back then it was the First Division. Gary Lineker scored the winner.
History is only part of it too. The rest of it is bouncing back from a disappointing Champions League exit and the many questions suddenly hovering over this club. This whole thing deserves a full on article, not just a mention in my picks so I’ll keep some up my sleeve but I really don’t see Spurs hitting their potential these days. Coming off of a fantastic 2015-16 season right up until they bottled it – officially falling out of the title race when they blew a 2-0 lead at Stamford Bridge in May – they were primed for special things again yet they failed to strengthen their squad they way that other top teams did. Moussa Sissoko hasn’t settled in yet, Vincent Janssen has been bad… Victor Wanyama is the one buy that’s immediately gotten down to business. That’s okay when you’ve got a settled starting XI but injuries to Toby Alderweireld, Harry Kane and Erik Lamela have left them exposed. Kane should play this one but he’ll be the only one of the three (unless they’re being sneaky with Lamela).
That’s not strictly Pochettino’s fault but he’s definitely not helping like he could with the constant tinkering. He’s fallen behind on all the fixtures. Elimination from the Champions League might not be the worst in that regard. Problem was, they never quite decided if they wanted to prioritise the league of the continental stuff.
Harry Kane’s gonna help because he’s a guy who won’t hesitate to take a shot at goal and when you watch this Spurs team, they’ve got the habit of playing well enough but without any intensity. Seriously, if they ramped up the pressure like they did against West Ham when they were down then they could be such a dangerous team but they don’t. Lamela as well, he takes guys on when others look for a pass out wide.
Spurs are still undefeated in the PL but Chelsea have won six in a row scoring 17 and conceding zero zilch nada nothing. Presumably something has to give and it’s very hard to look past the team that’s had the entire week to prepare for this, are in killer form and are playing at home. Plus Spurs are without their best defender – although Hugo Lloris was absolutely brilliant against Monaco. This save, I swear to God what a save!
But yeah, they’re gonna lose this weekend. I’d add something clever about Chelsea but damn I mean they keep on doing the same stuff, there’s nothing to add. They’re the best team in England right now. We’ll see if that lasts over the next few months, given they’ve a very strict first XI that’s getting it done, at this moment though there’s none better.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Chelsea
Watford vs Stoke City
1.00am Monday (NZT)
Last season, Watford had a really solid first half thanks to Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney playing as a striking pair. It was a genuine old fashioned centre forward partnership like not so many defences are used to playing against anymore and it worked… until it didn’t any longer. They were dead average in the back half and their manager got sacked. So perhaps the shrewdest thing they’ve done was signing Roberto Pereyra and giving them a proper attacking midfielder to build around, bolstering a midfield that didn’t have a lot of attacking pop last time (and Etienne Capoue has of course been masterful himself). It means Ighalo’s been marginalised with only one goal in 10 games but meh. Capoue’s scored five with an assist and Pereyra has two and two – both scored in the 2-1 win over Leicester.
On the other hand, Stoke were full of flashy attacking mids last time but lacked the dude up front to put them away. Cue Wilfried Bony, coming in on loan. Apart from the game against his old mates at Swansea he’s not been banging them away but he brings a presence up front. He’s a big body that attracts defenders and that opens things up for guys like Arnautovic to do what he does. Which hasn’t been much yet, but he’s due.
Both of these teams are far from finished products. Watford were embarrassed by Liverpool two games back and Stoke started abysmally, won three on the trot against the three teams that currently occupy the drop zone and lost to Bournemouth last week. This has 1-1 written all over it.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
3.15am Monday (NZT)
Ya know, in the 14 games that Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi have played together, Arsenal have won 9 and drawn 5 (including the last three in a row) conceding only 12 goals. I dunno, sounds rather good to me.
Come on though, we all know who this game will be about…
Jacky Boy returns to the Emirates, he hasn’t played there in the Premier League since the last day of the 2015/16 season which was the first time he’d played there in the Premier League the last day of the 2014/15 season. Of course, he won’t be playing since he’s on loan and most every loan deal includes a ‘cannot play against parent club’ clause. But he’ll be watching keenly from the sidelines and after the way he played against Stoke last week, he’ll be a big absence.
Benik Afobe: “Jack's a top guy who speaks to everyone and is really humble. He's really lifted the quality in training since he's arrived and he's a great role model to any young players. He works hard and has stayed the same throughout his career.”
Ah those two. Best friends forever.
Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 2-0
Southampton vs Everton
5.30am Monday (NZT)
The old saying ‘this town ain’t big enough for the both of us’? (Which always makes me think of the movie Toy Story). Well, there are four Champions League spots available presuming that nobody from England goes on to win the thing this season – don’t count Leicester out just yet… - and three more spots for the Europa League which, supposing Champions League teams win the two domestic cups, will go to the teams that finish fifth, sixth and seventh. Manchester United or Southampton could win the Europa League too, technically, which’d mean a UCL spot. That probably won’t happen but if it does then eighth would be a Europa spot, I’m pretty sure. It’d be a bonus place. But that thing about the small township is this: Manchester City/United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs, Everton and Southampton. Eight teams probably playing for seven spots in Europe.
One of these two is gonna miss out. (I can't find the Toy Story clip, so here's a cool album that popped up in m recommendations while I was searching...)
The contrasts are pretty interesting, really. Both with new managers, Everton’s one happening to be the guy who used to manage Southampton. Each team has looked impressive at the back (Everton after selling John Stones too) but neither has been able to score too many. Everton are better up top but Southampton better at the back. Speaking of which, did you see Virgil Van Dijk last week vs Liverpool? I’m telling ya, best central defender in England. If he played for Chelsea or Liverpool you’d be hearing all about it.
The four games the Saints have played after Europa League Thursday nights they’ve only won once and it was 1-0 at home vs Swansea. They lost to Hull after beating Inter Milan last time. But they’ve also only lost once on the rebound so this one feels like a draw.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0
Manchester United vs West Ham United
5.30am Monday (NZT)
Whoop, a game in Manchester. Must be a draw then, lock her in.
Except… West Ham are shite at the moment. Winston Reid is out suspended and while I don’t think Slaven Bilic is in too much trouble yet, when he loses to United, Arsenal and Liverpool all in a row as well as getting knocked out of the EFL Cup by United in the middle of that all in the next few weeks he certainly will be. I feel bad for the guy coz it isn’t all his fault that there have been injuries and lots of them, however after a brilliant transfer window last time, this summer’s haul isn’t looking too flash:
- Andre Ayew: 5 games, has been injured
- Arthur Masuaku: 6 games, is currently injured
- Edmilson Fernandes: 8 games (1 goal), 20 years old midfielder
- Simone Zaza: 10 games, hasn’t scored despite being the main striker
- Jonathan Calleri: 9 games and completely awful so far (he’s v/young)
- Gokhan Tore: 8 games of mixed baggery
- Havard Nordtveit: 10 games, played all over, been bad all over
- Sofiane Feghouli: 9 games (1 goal), has been injured
- Alvaro Arbeloa: 3 games, not 100% fit
- Ashley Fletcher: 9 games and too inexperienced to help for now
That’s out of 18 total games so is including EFL Cup and Europa League qualifiers. I’m ignoring Manuel Lanzini because he was already there, they just made it permanent. This is a lot of players, lots of guys to integrate into the team in a hurry. They’ve been better since going 3-4-2-1 but with zero consistency in selection it’s been way too messy. Injuries, suspensions and form. The Triumvirate of Manager’s Bane.
Let’s talk about Manchester United now. Despite a lot of the reaction, I genuinely thought they were great against Arsenal. Fantastic, in fact. But typical Mourinho, he went for the check down with his subs and they lost control of the last ten minutes of a second half that they’d dominated entirely. Most times you’ll still get away with a 1-0 win in those situations. Every now and then Olivier Giroud pops up with an equaliser. That’s the way it goes.
Which all bodes well in the long term for them. They’re controlling these games and creating heaps of chances too. Not like last term. Paul Pogba had his best game of the season against Arsenal, Antonio Valencia returned and was brilliant and Juan Mata will never let you down. You know, instead of bringing on defensive players, Jose might do well to leave Mata on for the full 90 one day and see if they can’t just hold the ball ‘til the whistle. He’s been subbed off in every start. Anyway, back on point now, it’s a good sign that United are growing more and more dangerous with every week. It’s not good that they aren’t capitalising on that. In the long run that’ll sort itself out but dropping points as they are in such a competitive season is definitely going to cost them come April/May.
Luckily they play West Ham next and West Ham specialise in finding creative ways to concede goals.
Wildcard’s Pick: 3-1 MUFC