The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 15
Last Week: 3/10
Overall: 68/140
Watford vs Everton
Sunday 1.30am (NZT)
We’re reaching the stage where the shuffling of the deck on the league table is starting to matter. It’s getting harder to go climbing up the ladder with a couple good weeks and we’re seeing a bottom three and a top five emerge very clearly.
Not for this duo though. Watford and Everton are setting themselves up as mid-table scrappers, which is an overachievement for Watters but a disappointment for Everton. Them Toffees, they started so well with four wins and a draw but have won only once since then in nine games. That was a 2-0 win over West Ham, a team they always get away with because Lukaku never doesn’t score against them… unlike Man United who he just plain never scores against (with Everton) and didn’t again last week. In those nine games, the only ones that featured more than two goals overall were a 2-1 defeat vs Burnley and a 5-0 thrashing by Chelsea. Don’t expect too many goals here, Everton have scored more than one goal in a game only once since September.
Oh but it gets worse… Yannick Bolasie is probably done for the season now with a knee injury. That is a shocker for an Everton team that’s losing a bit of steam at the moment and now they’re without the guy who leads them in assists. His partnership with Romelu Lukaku has been top notch since he joined from Palace in the summer. Not good at all… although this might force Koeman’s hand with Ross Barkley.
Watford are without a key fella too with Roberto Pereyra sent off last week, after Troy Deeney and Etienne Capoue had inspired things early on, Pereyra has started to assert himself in the last few games.
Last season this pair drew twice. Last season was a long time ago for both of them. Watford haven’t beaten Everton since 1987, I don’t think they’ll do so here and I don’t think it’ll be a game worth staying up for either. Maybe set the alarm for the bulk games afterwards.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Swansea City vs Sunderland
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Three wins out of four for Sunderland, what a team. What a turnaround. David Moyes truly is the greatest manager of his generation. Although… beating Bournemouth, Hull and Leicester maybe isn’t the most impressive run of games ever. Still, if they add a win against Swansea here then we’re talking about maximum points from four winnable games. That ain’t the form of a relegated team.
I’m worried about the loss of Duncan Watmore though. He’s done the same thing as Yannick Bolasie and could on the sly be just as big a loss. Watmore doesn’t contribute as much to the attack but along with Victor Anichebe, his presence in the front three (also considered 4-5-1, but I prefer to look at it as a 4-3-3 but with a defensive lean) for the Black Cats has been pretty crucial in how they’ve almost led the defence from the front. Those two begin… not so much the press, but the shape and the shield. They’re the first of several barriers before the Sunderland goal – the last of which being Jordan Pickford, who’s starting to put himself in international thoughts for some. Youngblood’s got good hands, gotta give him that. Also, Watmore and Anichebe free up Jermain Defoe which is obviously massive for them. It was in the Bournemouth game that they got that pairing and since then the three wins in four, the one defeat being a valiant 2-0 defeat against Liverpool.
Other options to fill in for Watmore: Whabi Khazri and Adnan Januzaj, both guys with very little idea of what to do when the ball’s not at their feet (though they’re really skilful going the other way, which is always handy). Also Donald Love came on for him last game when Watty got hurt, he’s a right back by trade but that might fit in more with what Moyes wants. I’d lean towards the American Lynden Gooch, personally. With the most American name ever, too.
Speaking of Septic Tanks, it sounds like Bob Bradley is in trouble already, yikes. Then again, the owners there (also Americans) sacked Guidolin after seven matches and Bradley's now had the same amount in charge himself:
Guido: 4 PTS | 1 W | 1 D | 5 L | 6 GF | 12 GA | -6 GD
Brads: 5 PTS | 1 W | 2 D | 4 L | 10 GF | 19 GA | -9 GD
Not a huge difference and the strength of opposition was fairly even too. The teams Guidolin played are currently in an average of 10th place, Bradley’s a little tougher with 7.9th place. The real test comes in the next few weeks when Swansea play Sunderland (H), WBA (A), Boro (A), West Ham (H), Bournemouth (H), Palace (A) before a brutal run of games in January-February. The constant tinkering of teams from Bradley hasn’t helped. He’s still trying to find his way of play with the Swans but he’s coming into a month and a half where they absolutely need to cash in on points. Forget the long term planning, find a way to win in the meantime. Otherwise he’ll not only be the first American manager hired in the Premier League, but the first one sacked as well.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-2
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
First thing is that Burnley are at home so this isn’t a complete write-off game. Second is that Bournemouth couldn’t possibly be fizzing more after that comeback 4-3 win over Liverpool. This is a definite banana skin game for them now but it doesn’t really matter to the Cherries, Burnley on the other hand could really use a few more points ahead of the Xmas rush.
It’ll be an interesting game, two teams who can score a few goals on the right days and two teams which really go at the midfield battle, though in different ways. Burnley are a bit more combative, Bournemouth a team that tries to incorporate a little flair in things.
But really, how about that game last weekend!
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Burnley
Arsenal vs Stoke City
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Hmm, the Gunners must be about due for a slip up game, right? Absolutely demolished West Ham on the weekend, picked up a piece of cake Champions League win vs Basel coupled with a PSG draw to sneak first place back and things are looking bloody nice for Arsene. We know how that usually goes for them, so here are the candidates:
Stoke (H): Seems like a perfect choice except it ain’t on a wet Tuesday night. Arsenal have won 14 straight home games vs the Potters going back to 1981.
Everton (A): Ooh, this is a possibility. Except maybe for the fact that Everton are dead out of form, though that might not be an issue. What is is that Wayne Rooney doesn’t play for Everton anymore.
Man City (A): Tough game, wouldn’t really count as a slip up. Would be a big statement if they’re able to get the win though.
West Brom (H): This is my pick. Boxing day and up against a surprisingly good West Brom team who have figured out how to score goals while still keeping defence intact.
Crystal Palace (H): Lots of crosses into the box might be a worry. More likely they smash them because Pardew > Wenger? Bitch, please.
Bournemouth (A): They beat them easy 3-1 in the home game a few weeks ago. Jack Wilshere can’t play against his parent club – the 4-3 comeback over Liverpool means they aren’t a surprise package.
Swansea (A): Hey, they might have a new manager by mid-Jan. It also might not matter.
That’ll do for now, if they haven’t buggered it up by then, you’ll all have to admit with me that Arsenal are legitimate title candidates. I actually think that on balance, they’re the favourites. Yeah, I said it.
Wildcard’s Pick: 3-1 to the Gunners
Hull City vs Crystal Palace
Sunday 4.00am (NZT)
Don’t let the scoreline flatter Hull from that Monday night game in Middlesbrough, they should have lost 4-0. They had Ryan Mason out on the wing for God’s sake. Hull have a couple good players but you need like 15 of those to be a decent Premier League team. I hope they stick with Mike Phelan in relegation though, none of this is his fault (he inherited a steaming pile of a squad).
Crystal Palace have this annoying trend of getting big results when they most need them, I guess that’s how they made the FA Cup final last season. Six losses on the pop and Alan Pardew’s job is under pressure and suddenly they go and beat Southampton – one of the better defences out there – 3-0! It’s madness. Pardew is the Fidel Castro of the Premier League in that you just can’t kill him (short of natural means of course, Mr Castro). Maybe in a couple other ways too.
Then, being the prick that he is, he had to make a big statement about it all with the signal to the chairman and a very overt message of thanks to Mr Steve Parish which doubled as a dig at the American owners.
Pards: “The chairman got a bit edgy this week, as you’d expect. We have a lot of serious investors at the club who perhaps don’t know a lot about football so the chairman has been defending me.”
This is Southampton’s fault. We could have had him sacked this week.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 to Palace
Leicester City vs Manchester City
Sunday 6.30am (NZT)
With that capitulation against Chelsea (and I’ll accept no alternative interpretations), neither Manchester club has won a home game still since City beat Bournemouth 4-0 on September 18. They only have themselves to blame, thoroughly bottling it from a 1-0 lead that could well have been two or three to nil. KDB, ya muppet. Not to mention a couple refereeing calls that got Pep all angry and cost him not only his temper but by extension his control of his team. Dude’s got some sweet kicks, though:
Now there’s a massive problem they face without Fernandinho for the next three games and Aguero for the next four. Their best defensive midfielder and their best striker, those are two significant holes in their team. City have more depth than most but we’re talking very key players here.
Yeeouch. And that’s not their first tangle either, apparently Aguero is a huge and vengeful Bart Simpson fan or something.
So much for that Champions League defensive record, aye Ranieri? One thing that hasn’t been mentioned that much is that for a UCL group, Leicester’s was pretty cruisy. Their toughest game was always gonna be away to Porto by a mile and when it came to it they’d already comfortably qualified. Next thing it’s ten changes to the team from last weekend and a 5-0 defeat. Hardly really matters, though we’re about to see the Premier League targeted fully, will be fun to see how they stack up this season now.
Also for the defending champs, this:
Wildcard’s Pick: City 2-0
Chelsea vs West Bromwich Albion
Monday 1.00am (NZT)
Maybe this is what we need. When the collective minds of Guardiola, Mourinho and Pochettino have failed miserably to tame the ol’ three-back formula of Antonio Conte, perhaps the answer lies beneath the baseball cap of Tony Freakin’ Pulis.
Bunch of fellas behind the ball, crowing the penalty area and getting you down the other end with a few set pieces. They’ll definitely be out to get their practice in – having beaten Watford last week they’re in the bonus for the rest of the year, sitting in seventh place as things stand. Which is nice because from here they play Chelsea in this game, then home to Swansea (must win given the fixtures around it), home to Man United, away to Arsenal on Boxing Day and then away a couple days later to Southampton. If you haven’t tired of Chris Brunt and Jonny Evans and the rest of those lads all holding hands in the penalty area then you might have by the dawn of 2017.
Tell you what, if they do manage to beat Chelsea then it’ll be 13 points from a possible 15 – the best five game stretch in WBA’s Premier League history. Having scored only 34 goals last season, they’ve already got 20 in 14 games, granted with a pretty cushy set of games so far.
Chelsea don’t look like they can be beaten though. Week after week they find a way, they probably would’ve lost had Kevin De Bruyne not missed the mother of all sitters to make it 2-0 but he did and next thing the Blues were 3-1 up and Sergio Aguero was diving in sprigs up. The toughest test will be if they have injuries over this Christmas period where the games really mount up, however they showed they’ve a little more depth than people realise in at least one key position last time out…
Wooooow, that’s just spot on. And Costa’s control and shot were ideal too. To be fair, Cescy was mostly average in the first half but you might expect that from a dude that’s barely played all season. Once he warmed up in the second he started to take control, playing next to N’Golo Kante could free him up like Nemanja Matic did two years ago when they were both still good. And his fall over the ad hoardings was a work of art – he played Fernandinho like a cheap banjo.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Chelsea
Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Monday 3.15am (NZT)
Let’s see, can’t score goals versus can’t score goals. More draws than wins against more draws than wins. Exactly level in goals scored and goals conceded. Boro have drawn their last four away games. Not even sure there’s anything else to say on this one.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Monday 3.15am (NZT)
My old friend Marouane Fellaini. Comes on with five minutes to play and a 1-0 lead, first thing he does is concede a dumbass penalty sticking his knee in where it doesn’t belong. Oh but he does a job, that’s why Mourinho picks him. He sure didn’t do a bloody job against Everton, not unless it was a hatchet job!
Leon Osman: “He was always like that for us. He was like that in training, if you came up against him he was likely to stand on your toes or give you a dead leg. When he played for us you wanted him as far away from our box as possible, get him up causing havoc in around the opposition penalty area where he was really good.”
You know, in the last 15 minutes of games Man Utd have been outscored 5-1. Middlesbrough are the only other team to have only scored once in the last 15 (it was an injury time levelled vs Man City too). United’s lone late goal mattered, it was a 90th minute winner vs Hull scored by Marcus Rashford. Since then they’ve blown a 1-1 at Watford to lose 2-1, conceded in the 82nd to draw 1-1 with Stoke, allowed Arsenal to sneak an undeserved point in the 89th minute and then most recently the 89th minute goal from Everton.
It’s so stupid. Jose Mourinho loves to sit on a lead late in games but this season he’s had this trend of getting to the last ten minutes or so and subbing on defensive guys to no avail. Sure, in theory you’re talking about an extra body at the back or in the midfield to keep teams at bay… but you’re also inviting them forward. You’re giving them room to lob a ball into the box by withdrawing backwards and once that little round sucker gets into the mixer anything can happen, from Phil Jones tripping over to give Giroud room to header to Fellaini’s utter nuttery. How’s about maybe try score a second instead?
I’ll put it this way, Man United have won five times in the PL this season. Aside from the Hull game which they were chasing right until the death, the other four have all come with his team at least two goals up with 15 minutes left. Their last two wins (and they’ve only won one of the last eight, stunningly – six draws in there) they were 4-0 up at HT (Leicester) and 3-0 up at HT (Swansea). So they’ve literally not protected a 1-0 lead in the league all season. Either they’ve blown it or they’ve added to it.
Spurs also draw games all the time, the silly fellows. But they also beat Swansea 5-0 last week and finally won a game at Wembley in the Champs League.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Liverpool vs West Ham United
Monday 5.30am (NZT)
Oh I suppose I’d better drop this bad boy in here, aye?
Hmm, though I prefer this one. Stevie G won’t be having a career in the media now, I’ll say that much. The dude could hit a football but he can’t spin a yarn too well. Mate but he sure could hit a football…
Righto, ever since I read Jonathan Wilson’s brilliant book about goalkeeping (‘The Outsider’) a year or two ago, I’ve had a newfound respect for the thankless art of goalkeeping and constantly feel compelled to jump to their defences. Loris Karius is the latest. He made a couple howlers in that collapse against Bournemouth and now he’s getting the same treatment as Claudio Bravo – Was he worth it? Who can replace him? Why does he suck so much? Mate… goalies famously take time to settle at new clubs. This should be common knowledge by now, David De Gea is the ideal example. If you bring in a new goalie, especially a young one (which is where Bravo deserves slightly more blame, though his role is a misunderstood one), then you have to be prepared for an easing in period. You’ve gotta ride with the mistakes and understand that you’re making an investment in the future of your team.
Where this doesn’t fly is with title challenges. WIN NOW and PREPARE FOR NEXT SEASON do not go hand in hand very easily and when Liverpool also has a dodgy defence in front of him and some questionable depth in the midfield, perhaps slip up games like this last one aren’t as unlikely as you’d imagine. Chelsea wouldn’t lose like that. Man City have shown a bit of bottle potential but hard to see them collapsing from 3-1 up. Same even, dare I say it, goes for the current incarnation of Arsenal. Sorry Reds, maybe next season? Either that or hilariously prove me wrong and hold it against me forever, up to Jurgen really.
Wondering why Adam Lallana looks is such better shape these days? Even at the football he’s eating healthy. Name the last time you saw fruit at a footy match, I dare you.
There’s not a lot new to say about West Ham, just the same old regurgitations. They recruited terribly after two seasons of fantastic transfer market work. Slaven Bilic is copping a bit of second season syndrome. Injuries are ravaging them. Dumb suspensions haven’t helped. They have no reliable striker and haven’t for a while now.
Lucky for the Hammers, anything they take from this one is a bonus. But with games against Burnley and Hull to follow, they’re gonna need nothing short of four points, probably six if they’re to avoid a mid-season search for a new boss. Hey, I hear Sam Allardyce is out of work at the moment…
Funny story to end on, remember when Arsenal tried to trigger Luis Suarez’s release clause with that famous £40,000,001 bid? Well apparently Roberto Firmino has a release clause in his contract of £82.3m but that release clause comes with a release clause: No bids will be accepted at any price from Arsenal FC. Hahaha.
Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-1