The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 17

Last Week: 8/10

Overall: 79/160

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Sunday 1.30am (NZT)

Gotta love those midweek games. People always talk about them being trip-up fixture but somehow I plucked an 8/10 on the picks and that was after going 0/2 on the Wednesday stuff. A perfect eight on the second day, almost lost it but Zlatan came through for me, cheers lad. Yeah, not so good on the first two though. Tempted as I was to pick Bournemouth to beat Leicester, I really didn’t see Arsenal doing an Arsenal and not beating Everton… but I feel sorry for the Gunners. All they have to do is lose one game and everyone’s all: ‘SAME OLD ARSENAL!’ Everyone loses games, man.

Everyone except Chelsea, that is. Ten wins in a row and to be honest I’d figure them to make it 11 over here at Selhurst. Fecking Palace, they cannot keep the goals out so what are they gonna do. Not a question. Even Cesc Fabregas is looking sharp again just to add one more slice of depth – now Matic is replaceable if need be. Depth is still their issue but Kurt Zouma’s slow return helps too. I’d argue the only irreplaceable players they have left are Diego Costa, David Luiz (I know!) and N’Golo Kante. One of those three gets hurt and they’re in trouble. All three stay the goods and the title is on the cards.

But I have been plotting and I’ve managed to come up with a few ideas for how to stop this Chelsea team from running away with things now that they’ve opened up a six point lead at the summit and look destined to challenge the all-time PL consecutive win record. Here we go…

IDEAS FOR STOPPING CHELSEA:

  • Nuclear war
  • Moveable goalposts
  • Underage referees
  • Spike the Gatorade
  • Sharpen John Terry’s training boot sprigs
  • Shave Conte’s hair while he sleeps
  • Illegally park the team bus to disrupt them
  • Get Diego Costa very drunk and film it
  • Alan Pardew

But… I’m not 100% confident in that last one.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chelsea 2-0

Middlesbrough vs Swansea City

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

The King remains a potent footballing philosopher even to this day.

Boro’s last six games of the campaign are this:

  • Arsenal (H)
  • Bournemouth (A)
  • Man City (H)
  • Chelsea (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • Liverpool (A)

GodDAMN. They might not get a single point outta that so the first 32 games had better be made to count. But there’s a saying among card players that if you’ve got a stinker of a hand, it means somebody else has a stunner and everyone plays everyone twice. Boro need to be taking points from the teams below them and they did so against Hull a little while ago. Now they get Swansea, also at home, and having dropped to 17th a draw now would really, really go down nicely.

Boro have scored the fewest goals of any team this campaign. Swansea have conceded the second most (including 12 in the last four and they had a clean sheet in there too). One way or another this darkness got to give.

Wildcard’s Pick: Boro 1-0

Stoke City vs Leicester City

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

Hahaha.

Wildcard’s Pick: Stoke 2-1

Sunderland vs Watford

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

Antonio Conte had this to say about Sunderland before beating them 1-0 midweek:

“We all know Sunderland are bottom of the table, but if you look at the last five games they're fifth in the table, taking nine points.”

That’s true, three wins from five which left only a handful of teams above them:

  1. Chelsea – 15 PTS
  2. Arsenal – 11 PTS
  3. WBA – 10 PTS
  4. Man Utd – 9 PTS
  5. Sunderland – 9 PTS

A little misleading though. Sunderland beat Bournemouth (2-1), Hull (3-0) & Leicester (2-1). They also got thrashed by Swansea so there’s nothing really to fear there. That Swans game was close for a good while and a Thibaut Courtois thriller of a save cost them a possible point against Chelsea but you can plug away and lose close as a weak team. That happens. It’s a much different story to actually get those points.

This is an opportunity though. Watford will have looked at this week, with this game and Man City away and thought: Yup, this is the one to target. Still, that doesn’t mean bugger all. Sunderland seem to be developing a way of getting up for the non-lost-cause home games.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Sunderland

West Ham United vs Hull City

Sunday 4.00am (NZT)

I watched the trailer for the new Christopher Nolan movie, Dunkirk. It’s a high budget, high atmosphere World War II epic which sounds outstanding and it’s about time we got another serious WW2 film but two full minutes of the trailer and I’m not at all sure what it’s actually about. Just a bunch of famous actors and Harry Styles chumming around trying not to get killed and looking miserable about it. Love the look of it, the cinematography is damned perfect but yeah. Will wait and see. Dunno exactly why but it seemed appropriate for this game.

The Hammers scraped by over Burnley but they did what they had to do – scored a goal and didn’t concede one. Was Winston Reid a lil sneaky in winning the spottie? Maybe. Did Mark Noble miss his first attempt? Yes, but he buried it on the rebound. Things will be difficult again with Hull coming to town ready to sit in and defend and probably mark Dimitri Payet with two midfielders at once but I’ll give them this one. It’s almost a benefit that they’re not in any way worried about how they play or none of that – after how they started it’s all result now.

Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 to WHU

West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester United

Sunday 6.30am (NZT)

First of all, forget Wayne Rooney’s boot tantrum or the referee in that game or Pogba being offside or Juan Mata not being offside or Zlatan’s super winner or Bailly getting injured and playing on for another fifty minute or Marcos Rojo’s awful tackling… forget anything Manchester United for a second because this preview needs to begin with Salomon Rondon.

The second man ever after Duncan Ferguson to score an all-header hat-trick. Of course it’d be a West Brom player to match that feat, though keep in mind that it also requires someone to score three goals and West Brom never used to be able to do that. Now they do it on the regular, Pulis you sly dog. But it’s the same old tricks, good crosses and a strong target man. Over the course of his two years in England, Rondon has never been a great goalscorer but he’s had his moments. This season has been a marked improvement over the last one, the lad’s learning the language and he’s learning the game. It’s no fluke that he’s had a breakout game like that one vs Swansea. The work he does for this team, holding the ball up and defending from the front… he absolutely deserved it too.

And a spare word for a couple of those Chris Brunt crosses too. On a flippin’ dime. (On his birthday too!).

Now for all those United things. Marcos Rojo isn’t a dirty player, he’s more like a silly dog that can’t control its own enthusiasm. He sees the ball and he HAS TO GO FOR IT. That’s why he makes such terrible tackles. But he’s also their fifth choice CB so it’s not a huge deal. On the whole, his scrappiness has been pretty handy with Daley Blind and Eric Bailly only now coming back from injury and Chris Smalling still out. Also, Mata was onside, Pogba was offside. Cancelled out, no dramas. And Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s goal is one of my favourite all season.

Look at that bugger. It’s not the acrobatic volleys like he’s famous for but this is just as good in its own way. It’s so clinical. So precise. He makes a sharp run to the exact right place, which gives him enough room to shoot. There’s still only a small area where he can score from and he hits that area dead on. Oh and it’s the 88th minute and the game is tied. This is what people mean about the best strikers being able to make their one moment count no matter when or where. Brilliant goal.

If Jose does the same thing he did against Palace and picks centre backs at fullback and central playmakers on the wing then his team is gonna have trouble getting through an extremely crowded penalty area. Gotta bring that width. Antonio Valencia will be back, which helps. Dunno about Luke Shaw but Daley Blind goes good at LB if he has to (and we all know about Mourinho vs Shaw). No Mkhitaryan which sucks. Might need to drop a Rooney or Mata for Rashford or even Lingard/Martial though. Could move Pogba back and play Mata in the middle, with Carrick getting a break or something. I get the feeling West Brom have a plan for this one, it’s gonna be a frustrating watch.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 Man Utd, playing it safe

Bournemouth vs Southampton

Monday 2.30am (NZT)

TEN PLAYERS WHO PROBABLY NEED TO LEAVE AND WHERE THEY SHOULD GO:

  • Marouane Fellaini => Surely West Ham
  • Ruben Loftus-Cheek => Wouldn’t mind him on Boro or Stoke
  • Robert Snodgrass => Give West Brom some more Scottish creativity
  • Alberto Moreno => Bloody anywhere, probably in Spain to be fair to the lad
  • Yaya Toure => Eh, China?
  • Kevin Wimmer => Watford would take him for sure
  • Peter Crouch => Who needs a veteran striker? Hull? Swansea?
  • Lamine Kone => Quality defender, Everton will lap him up
  • Gylfi Sigurdsson => Would love to see this fella for Middlesbrough
  • Diafra Sakho => Sunderland could use him

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Manchester City vs Arsenal

Monday 5.00am (NZT)

You know why Arsenal lost? Shkodran’s injury broke up the Mustafi/Koscielny super duo. Still, 14 league games in a row without defeat was a bloody good run. Do that again from here and they’ll be primed for a run at that Premier League trophy that Arsene hasn’t seen for a decade.

Makes sense. Both of them are usually irrelevant by mid-January.

Ilkay Gundogan’s injury is some proper bad news for City. Hopefully it’s not as bad as it first looked but if anyone can offer sympathy it’s Arsenal after Santi Cazorla was hurt for them. Difference is the Gunners are still able to draw from the stocks for their midfield. City cannot. They have a magnificent lot of young players in the academy who are still years away from the first team and a solid group of oldies who won Premier Leagues going back half a decade and haven’t been eased out at all. Yaya Toure might need to play a big role the next few weeks.

The Midfields:

Granit Xhaka vs Yaya Toure

Francis Coquelin vs Fernando

Mohamed Elneny vs Fernandinho

Aaron Ramsey vs Fabian Delph

I’m giving the tick on current ability to Xhaka, Coquelin, Fernandinho and Ramsey. Although with all due respect, Ramsey should be nowhere near a non-attacking midfield role unless it’s for the Welsh national team where he’s got defensive specialists all around him, which you can do with Gareth Bale up front playing 1v4. I really like Xhaka when he signed and he’s starting to settle now. Love that diagonal chip in behind the defensive line that he plays, it’s so perfect when playing with guys like Ozil and Sanchez.

The cliché would be that Arsenal always bottle it against the big boys, especially away from home. On the surface though I’d say they’re a clear step better than the Citizens. Difficult little balance. City finally won another home game with the victory over Hull and they’ve already lost there to Chelsea. Not a lot going their way on the whole and you get the idea Pep might be angling for a couple of January transfers – something that’s always a way overrated factor in a season. Papers just like writing about the window coz it means fake transfer rumours for folks to click on.

But based on Arsenal’s approach at Old Trafford a few games ago, based on how they slipped up against Everton and based on how City can’t really afford to stumble against another top team… this feels like a firm draw. They actually haven’t lost to City for three years though, when they went down 6-3 and all that.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs Burnley

Monday 5.00am (NZT)

Even against West Ham, they weren’t able to score another away goal. Poor old Burnley, I don’t think they’re ever gonna drag themselves out of the relegation battle – though I also don’t think they’re going down so no worries. Give Sean Dyche the option of booking in a 17th place finish right now and I have a sneaky suspicion he’d take it. Odd thing is they’ve scored three times in two of their last three home games yet have one away goal all season…

Making it hard to think Spurs won’t take a comfortable win into Christmas. Their last three home games, following a comeback 3-2 win over West Ham, are as follows:

  • Spurs 5-0 Swansea
  • Spurs 3-1 CSKA Moscow
  • Spurs 3-0 Hull

They also pulled off the three-back switcharoo against Hull, playing 3-4-2-1 which is not something we’ve seen too often from them. Can’t remember it ever happening this season, though they’ve said it’s been done once or twice before under Pochettino. Three defenders is all the rage these days but it’s not a system that suits everyone. Look at Chelsea, you need the wingbacks that they have and you need a dominant midfield. Above all else you need pace and a striker who scores at a high clip.

Spur have most of that though. In getting Kyle Walker and Danny Rose able to push further forward they gave themselves a width that they usually struggle to find, which stretches the defence and gives more room for guys like Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli to weave their magic. Also Harry Kane scores goals for fun and they have a couple of very good midfielders who can both attack and defend. I will say that the way they played it pretty much left Victor Wanyama doing all the work in midfield, though that does the trick for Chelsea and Kante. Wanyama scored too, so that was good for him. Probably the most important point is that they were playing the worst team in the Premier League and they tore them to shreds as they would have done anyway. Walker and Rose both had assists, so that side of things went to perfection, though against a stronger team this might not fly. It’s one to keep up the sleeve though – all managers want a bit of variety.

Wildcard’s Pick: Spurs 2-0

Everton vs Liverpool

Tuesday 9.00am (NZT)

The Merseyside Derby on a Monday night, this ought to be required viewing. Plus it’s at Goodison which always makes for a better game because, you know, Liverpool usually win at Anfield. Tell ya what, these are two of the last remaining unbeaten home teams this season – Liverpool with five wins and two draws and Everton with four and four. Spurs are also undefeated at home. Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Man United…? Nope, all have dropped Premier League games at home this season. Spurs and Liverpool are believable, Everton is a little surprising. Probably because they’ve lost five away games already.

But then Everton just beat Arsenal so for the first time in a month or two the confidence is back among the Toffees. James McCarthy is looking sharp, Romelu Lukaku keeps on scoring. Ross Barkley made a big impact in that game too plus the defence stood up much better than I thought they would against Sanchez/Ozil/etc. They desperately needed a win but I doubt many people saw that one coming. I like them in a 4-3-3 too. Lukaku is a perfect striker for that system and they have quick wide guys. Plus with Barkley and McCarthy chugging along you’ve got plenty of cover around Idrissa Gueye, who continues to impress.

Liverpool run that system too and they looked flippin’ monstrous in beating Middlesbrough. Adam Lallana, what a season he’s having. Also I signed him for my (pathetic) fantasy team in the days before that game and he responds with a couple goals and an assist. You’re very welcome.

Divock Origi has scored in five straight games now. No Coutinho, no Sturridge… no bloody problem. He does take away a bit of how they were playing a month ago because technically he’s not got the best touch and all, still he scores goals and that’s the only currency that matters. Except he’s questionable for this game, which throws all sorts of cats amongst pigeons. Burmese cats, Bengal cats, Persian cats, Siamese cats, British Shorthair cats, Ragdoll cats, American Shorthair cats, Abyssinian cats… all sorts.

That injury list is rising for Liverpool. Emre Can and Joel Matip missed the last one and are in doubt again. Coutinho and Sturridge won’t be back in a hurry, most likely. Not really sure what’s up with Dan the Man but if he’s fine he’ll be hurt again in five minutes. Nobody should care about the goalie switch but the defensive pairing is bound to be dodgy. Lucas Leiva is gonna need to start if Origi is out and that means guys in different roles, probably Wijnaldum further forward. Or hey perhaps they start that Woodburn child.

There’s something in there that I think Everton can take advantage of. Who in that team can mark Lukaku? Not one of them. Just a matter of getting him the service.

Wildcard’s Pick: 2-2

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Written by Nick Robinson On Tagged ,