From 2026 the All Whites are gonna be regulars at the FIFA World Cup. No more Roads to Russia, no more Rory Fallons against Bahrain, no more whatever the hell you wanna describe the insane journey it took to make it to Spain in 1982. Once the World Cup expands to 48 teams there’s almost certain to be an automatic spot for Oceania, what with 16 extra teams to be found and our Polynesian islands already granted a half spot under the current system. Makes sense we’ll get a free pass.

The FIFA Council had a vote on World Cup expansion and it was unanimously decided on a new 48 team competition format. The teams will be split into 16 groups of three nations, with two games each in that round and the top two advancing into a 32-team knockout stage. So in effect they’ve added one more round of the elimination stuff but despite the outrage at what expansion means and what the motivations might be, the system they’ve come up with doesn’t actually change all that much.

For example, there will still be 32 teams playing at least three times, 16 teams who play at least four times, etc. The semi-finalists will log seven matches each. That’s the same as it’s been since they implemented the current way of doing things in 1998… just a little different. From 64 games they’ll now have 80 games, although with the way it’s structured they’ll still complete the tournament in 32 days, promptly. Plus this way they won’t have to double up any games, so they’ll all take place in unique timeslots which means more footy on the telly and no having to flick channels. There will be 16 teams that only get two games but those 16 teams wouldn’t even be there otherwise so they’re not complaining.

Let’s start with the positives. The good thing about this is that there’ll be more money floating around, bigger profits are forecast so even with the extra nations there won’t be any cut in the splits handed out to all participants. Money and football share an ominous link, especially when FIFA’s involved, but countries and federations also need cash to survive and to grow. On the competitive side of it there’s also the added intention that with this format there’ll be no dead games. Nobody will be eliminated before kickoff with the exception of the third and fourth playoff, the two-game group stages mean that there’s always something to play for. Plus knockout footy is the best and now there’s an extra round of it.

Although… can the World Cup carry a round of 32? Erm, not really. There’ll be some 4-0, 5-0 results in there when Germany or Argentina draw, like… let’s say Albania or Jamaica or something. And there’s also the possibility with three-team groups that if the two leading teams meet in the final game that they settle for a mutually beneficial draw without really trying. That kind of collusion is a big reason why they dumped three-team groups in the first place. As well as that there’s the added chance of groups being decided by goal difference which is always a tad unfair. Granted there’s a rumour floating around that FIFA are keen to abolish draws completely and have extra time and shootouts in group games… which is ridiculous. So maybe we take the lesser of two evils there and settle for a bit of collusion in a few groups.

On the whole, if you can get by the frustrations of how much expansion fits in with the greed and enterprise of Old FIFA, which some of us probably thought we’d gotten rid of without Sepp Blatter (oh, don’t be so naive…), then this whole thing isn’t so bad. In fact it might be an overall improvement to things. Hey, we’ve had five straight tournaments with the same format and the World Cup has never gone that long without expansion before. We had to expect this.

Gianni Infantino: “On the upside, that’s 16 more countries some of which probably would never have dreamt to participate in a World Cup will have the chance to participate and many more will have the chance to dream to participate.”

Yeah see, that’s the big issue. The world doesn’t have 48 teams capable of competing at the highest level and the new 16 teams aren’t going to add anything on the competitive side. There are always a few impressive nations and superb players who miss out but that’s their problem and it’s a way of reminding everyone that this is an elite competition and entry isn’t automatic. Well it sort of is now, though it’s not quite the massive drama people are freaking out over. We all just like a chance to take shots at FIFA.

Take a closer look and there are already too many teams. That huge disparity between the best few and worst few teams at Cup is already there, so what’s the big deal? They’re spread out over 16 groups anyway. In Brazil 2014 there were 11 games decided by three goals or more... one was a 7-1 result in the semi-final. Yes, there’s an issue about how thinly stretched the strength is at these things but it’s not a new issue and this won’t make much of a difference. Infantino reckons that the hype and festivity of giving extra teams a chance to compete outweighs the difference in competition and he’s got a fair point there too.

After all, FIFA still have to care about growing the sport and all that. They have to care about money and wealth. They have to care about football. All we care about is the tournament itself and our own country, so of course this stuff goes down poorly. It shouldn’t.

As for New Zealand’s stakes, this ought to make the All Whites regulars at World Cups from 2026 onwards (so still one more long-slog of a qualifying campaign after this current one). It’s sad to lose the romance of those qualifying ties but then the financial offerings of making the World Cup are enormous. “Financial security” was the phrase that Andy Martin used. It’s no lie that FIFA have long used payouts as political tool and Infantino is probably borrowing that same trick from the Sepp Blatter Book of Power Mongering but that’s not to say that the cash isn’t enormously useful for those federations (the issue is more about whose pockets it ends up in). A few more bucks and NZ Football might even bother scheduling some home friendlies for us one day. Just ten more years to wait…

Money’s a necessary evil in this game, sadly. The main lesson from this whole saga is that of the disconnect between the administrators who have to worry about the bottom lines and the fans who happily watch footy for free – heck, we even pay for it sometimes. But there is an obligation for Infantino and his cohorts to serve both sides and to be honest this is a pretty solid outcome compared to what might have been.