Chill On The Blackcaps ODI Team Yo

Before you get all down in the dumps about the Blackcaps after being smoked by Australia twice in the Chappell-Hadlee/Hadlee-Chappell series, I need to drop a few notes. These notes are excuses by nature, although if you use them correctly to form an argument against your mate who is talking all sorts of smack about the Blackcaps, you'll probably end up with bragging rights.

These notes came under the umbrella of Australia simply being much better than our Blackcaps in two ODI games, which is always going to be disappointing. I can't offer any notes on the intangibles, like desperation or pure enthusiasm and execution of specific skills which plaqued the Blackcaps in these two ODI games. 

Much of the hype around the Blackcaps for this series centred around what they did earlier this year in winning the Chappell-Hadlee trophy on Aotearoa soil, effectively making it the Hadlee-Chappell Trophy. That series victory was a high point in a summer and 2016 in general given the quality of opposition that the kiwis had rolled through prior and then how mediocre the Test team has been against quality opposition since. 

Basing hype for this series, on what went down in that series though is a bit silly because both teams are vastly different. From the two victories that sealed the series win (game one and three) Brendon McCullum, Henry Nicholls, Grant Elliott, Luke Ronchi, Corey Anderson, Adam Milne, Ish Sodhi and Doug Bracewell are all missing from the team that went back to back with losses. Nicholls is the only player still in the squad and with McCullum and Elliott retiring, the Blackcaps not only lost pure talent - as is the case with Anderson - they lost two of the team's leaders.

That talent/experience combo of McCullum and Elliott was replaced with Tom Latham and Colin Munro. With all due respect to Latham and Munro, they are no where near as well-equipped to deal with Chappell-Hadlee cricket in Australia, as McCullum and Elliott. 

Luke Ronchi's power hitting would more than likely help the kiwis chase a target over 300, compared to BJ Watling's noodling.

Only Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson, Mitchell Santner (who only played one of those two games, replaced by Sodhi for the third game), Matt Henry and Trent Boult are still in the team.

Not only were the Blackcaps a more experienced, gritty outfit who were humming under McCullum's leadership, Australia were quite a different team as well. Shaun Marsh, Usman Khawaja, Glenn Maxwell, Sam Boland, John Hastings and Kane Richardson were in the team then, but weren't deemed good enough to be in the team now. Marsh and Khawaja were replaced by Aaron Finch, Maxwell was replaced by Travis Head's back to back half-centuries, while Hastings, Boland and Richardson have been replaced by Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins.

That leads me to one of the major complaints about the Blackcaps performances this week; their rather average bowling. While this was definitely below-par and continues to reflect poorly on a bowling coach who is doing a horrible Shane Bond impersonation, a quick comparison of the career ODI stats of Boult, Southee, Henry and Lockie Ferguson vs those of Hazlewood, Starc and Cummins tells its own story.

Hazlewood: 28 games, 24.52avg, 4.66rpo.
Starc: 58 games, 19.88avg, 4.79rpo.
Cummins: 20 games, 23.97avg, 5.66rpo.

vs

Southee: 105 games, 32.22avg, 5.36rpo.
Boult: 38 games, 24.76avg, 4.93rpo.
Henry: 29 games, 25.05avg, 5.66rpo.
Ferguson: (List-A domestic stuff) 22 games, 30.76avg, 6.40rpo.

Hazlewood vs Southee is an easy victory for Hazlewood.

Starc vs Boult is an easy victory for Starc, even though Boult is our best ODI bowler. And Starc gets reverse swing at 150km/h. 

Cummins vs Henry/Ferguson is a narrow victory for Cummins, although if you asked me who'd I'd select in my team, I'd go with Cummins asap. Cummins has a better record than Henry in ODI cricket and Ferguson's domestic one-day stuff and he's consistently faster, more hostile.

How do those stats influence your expectations of the Blackcaps bowling attack, compared to what the Aussies dish up? We may have Southee and Boult, who are viewed as a top-shelf combination, yet Hazlewood and Starc are just better. Henry's been fantastic in ODI cricket thus far, yet Cummins is just a better bowler.

A three-pronged seam attack of Southee, Boult and Henry is the best attack we have. Australia's attack is simply better; even if our bowlers do their best work and Australia's bowlers are also doing their best work, I'd take them every day of the week.

Noise about Australia coming off a series loss to South Africa also appeared to influence the expectations of many. That ignores the fact that of their past 14 ODI series' Australia have won all but three of those series' and that the three series losses they have endured, came outside of Australia; twice in Aotearoa. 

The manner of the losses in these two Chappell-Hadlee games brews frustration and that's understandable. I'd suggest that given the strength of the kiwi batting line up compared to Australia's and the experience in the two batting groups, as well as Australia's bowlers just simply being better in all aspects of seam/swing bowling, the Blackcaps could have played their best and still lost. 

All of this reminds me of two key questions I asked in yesterday's debrief of game two; who is our Travis Head? And who is our Pat Cummins?

Who is our 22-year-old batsman who hit back to back half-centuries at a smoking strike-rate (and bowled a great spell of off-spinning darts)? Well, we just don't have a youngster who's that good; Mitch Santner can't bat at the moment, Henry Nicholls is ... kickin' back and Head's a better bat than Colin Munro and Colin de Grandhomme.

Who is our 23-year-old fast bowling phenom who averages 23.97 in ODI cricket, 16.71 in Test cricket and 18.80 in T20 cricket? We just don't have anyone like that; Ferguson's played one international game and Adam Milne is a poor-man's Cummins averaging 40.61 in ODI cricket. 

Sometimes, we've just got to cop it on the chin that the Blackcaps aren't as good as Australia. If you can't do that, then just understand that the journey of a very settled and talented Australian team crossed over with the journey of a Blackcaps ODI team that's regrouping, trying to fill talent and leadership voids.

Chur Australia, you got us this time. We'll be back in a while, armed with a more settled, experience and skillful ODI team that has truly found its identity under Kaptain Kane Williamson.