Blackcaps Lesson Learned: Preparing For Dat 2019 World Cup
Having offered a few lessons for Lesson to learn, now it's time to put those lessons into action for Lesson. We are gunning towards the 2019 World Cup and while there is definitely space to ride with the here and now for the Blackcaps, my job is to keep the World Cup in mind and offer some bigger picture context.
We know that Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Trent Boult and Tim Southee will be certain selections - Southee's the most likely of those four to miss out. Other than that, the plethora of ODI cricket in 2018 should enable a natural sorting process if Lesson use these games correctly and select teams/squads accordingly. There are many kiwi cricketers competing for seven spots in the 1st XI, making this a rather funky time for the ODI group as nearly everyone involved has to state their case for a place in that 1st XI.
Martin Guptill should be in that certain selection bracket, however his hamstring issues don't fill me with any confidence that he'll be healthy. On top of Guptill being a 31-year-old with dodgy hammies, he has only put up 2 scores of 50+ this year (61 vs Aus, Jan 30 and 180* vs SA, Mar 1) and since the start of the Champions Trophy, Guptill has a top-score of 33.
That is to say that Guptill isn't quite a certainty if healthy and has to put up some ODI scores this year to nail a WC spot. Colin Munro's margin for era is huge as a pinch-hitter at the top because he can get away with consistently hitting scores of 40 of 20 balls and that's deemed a success; it'll take a string of sub-10 scores for Munro to be dropped.
Munro's in a weird spot given his marker for success compared to Guptill and George Worker, who will be judged on big scores, not quick scores. Right now, who ever is scoring more runs between Worker and Guptill gets the nod and Worker has an automatic advantage as he's fit more often than Guptill is. Worker will have opportunities and if he takes them, then Guptill's chances decrease.
The funk for me though sits with Munro and whether he can consistently do this job, or even if this pinch-hitting job is actually beneficial. Teams will suss out ways to limit Munro's scoring, so how he counters that will be crucial and the Guptill/Worker combination is equally as slick as Munro and Guptill/Worker.
Ultimately, he who scores runs wins and that's lovely.
I'm also not ready to put Tom Latham in the certain selection bucket, even though there's buzz around his move to #5 as wicket-keeper. The best situation is to ride with Latham all the way to the WC and stick solid with him, keep the faith in him and maintain consistency here as we are coming off the Champions Trophy wicket-keeper shambles and all I want is consistency.
If Latham falters, Aotearoa has a plethora of wicket-keepers who can slot in at #5 or #6. Glenn Phillips is the most likely and his hitting ability offers some versatility, while Tom Blundell and Tim Seifert are options who could be explored. Key thing here is to explore options asap and not wait until the World Cup to bring in someone new, as was the case with the Champions Trophy.
This is Latham's spot to lose and as long as he's doing his job, it won't really matter what the other blokes are doing in domestic cricket. If Phillips for example, is irresistible, then he'd move into contention as an opener or at #6, in conjunction with Latham and not replacing Latham.
Another Cantab who has settled into their role recently is Henry Nicholls and 2018 will be the year for Nicholls to establish himself as the best #6 in Aotearoa. This is Nicholls' spot to lose and the main thing that is holding be back from buying Nicholls stocks is that he is yet to finish an innings under pressure and all of his 50+ scores have come in Aotearoa. Nicholls has laid the foundations for being at the WC as a #6 batsmen, he'll need to seal the deal with throughout 2018 though and to assume that Nicholls has it wrapped up now is foolish.
The different options available when pondering this #6 spot are such that I don't want to chuck any other names into the conversation. You can go down the all-rounder route, the wicket-keeper route, the young or old batsman route and I've got no idea what the best alternative is at the moment. That only has me excited to see which player emerges over the next 12 months as competition for Nicholls and we can lay that on top of Nicholls having to level-up and make this spot his own.
Which player emerges as a legit option at #6 will influence the rest of the playing XI and my advice to Lesson would be to stay flexible in how they build their team. Horses for courses is cool, but you don't want to squeeze a mediocre player in just because they fit the mould and I'd prefer to see the best players selected and their role designed to their strengths. I'm very open minded to what happens at #6, although it's Nicholls' gig right now.
There is a rather large gang of seamers who are set to compete against each other to join Boult and Southee in the seam department; Colin de Grandhomme, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Adam Milne, Doug Bracewell and Seth Rance.
There are three spinners in contention; Mitchell Santner, Todd Astle and Ish Sodhi.
The funk here sits not with the players but with the mix of bowlers. De Grandhomme offers some nifty lower-order hitting and along with Santner, they extend the batting line up without taking anything away from the bowling attack. You can make a case for these two to be considered in the top-five ODI bowlers available - de Grandhomme's ODI and List-A bowling stats definitely suggest otherwise, but I like him as a fifth bowling option. As a fifth bowling options, de Grandhomme is the best option equipped to deal with the batting duties.
This leaves one more bowling spot and I'm open to whether that's a spinner or a seamer. Again, this should be a case of who is the best bowler available and not a case of 'well we can't play with two spinners'. If Astle or Sodhi are better bowling options than Ferguson, Henry or Bracewell, they should be selected; I don't trust in Lesson though.
Lesson will look at whether Worker can offer his tweakers, or if Nicholls loses his spot then could you bring in an all-rounder. I just want the best bowler selected though and this spot shouldn't be determined by who offers the most with the bat, all these blokes can do something with the bat and who ever is selected in this role is likely to bat #10 or #11, possibly #9.
The bowling mixer then looks like this (in no order): Henry, Bracewell, Ferguson, Milne, Sodhi, Astle. Having Santner and de Grandhomme allows for a certified, genuine bowler to earn selection and I'm going to be be intrigued to see who is the most worthy of earning selection in a year's time.
I can't predict what Lesson will do, all I can do is highlight who is the most worthy based on what these players do in 2018. I can't even say that I want the Blackcaps to play this way, or have a hitter here and there or more spinners and less seamers. All I care about is highlighting the best players available and then trying to rationale selections that are made.
That is my duty to you in 2018 as we prepare for World Cup glory.
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Peace and love 27.