Exploring The (Relative) Kyle Jamieson Test Plateau
Aotearoa's legendary seam attack received a timely World Test Championship boost when Kyle Jamieson burst into Test cricket with more wickets than a doosra loving spinner at your local club. Jamieson ripped through opposition batting line ups via freaky swing and zip off the pitch, allowing Jamieson to attack right and left-handed batters. This frenzy of Jamieson wickets saw him rack up records and stats that blasted Aotearoa into the WTC final, then sealing WTC glory.
Jamieson played five Test in each of his first two years for Aotearoa. 25w @ 14.44avg in his first year (2020) and then 27w @ 17.51avg in his second year. Jamieson also showed promise as a batter with a knock of 51* in 2020 taking him to 196 runs @ 49avg that year.
Since then, there has been a dip in Jamieson's mahi. That knock of 51* is now Jamieson's only 50+ score in Test cricket as his batting averages fell off in the next two years with 17.5avg in 2021, then 50 runs @ 10avg this year. Jamieson's not a batter, so all good.
Jamieson's batting decline is aligned with a decline in his bowling efficiency and while words like 'decline' and 'dip' are used to describe Jamieson's trajectory, this is all relative. Jamieson was bonkers in his first two years of Test bowling, as if aliens from the cricketing planet of 'Baturn' sent down their seam bowling prodigy. Jamieson's mahi is still above average and this is all in tune with players adjusting to the rigours of Test cricket.
2020: 159.2ov, 25w @ 14.44avg/2.26rpo/38.2sr.
2021: 188.2ov, 27w @ 17.51avg/2.51rpo/41.8sr.
2022: 130.5ov, 14w @ 28.71avg/3.07rpo/56sr.
Jamieson is taking less wickets and he is almost a run more expensive than he was in 2020, which is a clear indicator that batters are more comfortable facing Jamieson. There were signs this summer that Jamieson had also lost a smidge of swing and deliveries weren't quite ripping off he seam as they done previously. Forget about what speed Jamieson is bowling because his dominance was all about skill; it's easier to highlight speed gun numbers than what skills are being deployed to snare wickets.
There is a chance that Jamieson finds his debut groove, but it's more likely that Jamieson finds middle ground where he plateaus out to be a good Test seamer. Jamieson's dip led him to 28.71avg this year and that mark is where Tim Southee, Trent Boult and Neil Wagner hover around for their Test careers. Should Jamieson manage to stay below 30avg, he will be among Aotearoa's elite seamers.
Here is how Jamieson compares to the three legends since the start of 2020...
Tim Southee: 558.2ov, 68w @ 21.72avg/2.64rpo/49.2sr.
Kyle Jamieson: 478.3ov, 66w @ 18.72avg/2.58rpo/43.5sr.
Trent Boult: 373.3ov, 45w @ 24.06avg/2.89rpo/49.8sr.
Neil Wagner: 410.3ov, 43w @ 26.37avg/2.76rpo/57.2sr.
Big ups Tim Southee.
This yarn may be as simple as Tom Latham vs Kane Williamson as Test skipper. Jamieson played eight Tests under Williamson with 45w @ 15.68avg and six Tests under Latham with 21w @ 25.23vg. That's interesting because Latham has spent far more time working with Jamieson at Canterbury, although this all falls under the umbrella of opponents being better prepared for the Jamieson challenge.
How does Jamieson fit into Blackcaps Test cricket moving forward? Ease up on the hope of Jamieson being a legit all-rounder first and foremost. We have learned from Southee in this regard and sure, Jamieson might flourish into an all-rounder role but we shouldn't expect that. Nor should we expect constant baggies of wickets for Jamieson, instead embracing Jamieson as someone who can fit snug into the seam attack of Southee, Boult and Wagner.
Jamieson may be the bloke to make way if a spin option is required. The next challenge is three Tests in England though and Aotearoa could roll out a five-banger seam attack also featuring Colin de Grandhomme. So, why isn't Jamieson on the Kiwi County Tour like Will Young and de Grandhomme? Because Jamieson is not playing Indian Premier League.
Two whirlwind years not only saw Jamieson thrown into all Blackcaps cricket at a stage where WTC and T20 World Cups were on the horizon, he also commanded a big IPL deal. Jamieson was fairly solid in the 2021 IPL with 9w @ 29.89avg and his 18.67sr is below the T20 mark of 20sr (all good T20 bowlers are below 20sr). The IPL was seduced by Jamieson, as they can be with all trendy cricketers and Jamieson wasn't quite as effective as the hectic IPL market suggested he should be.
Jamieson didn't play at the T20 World Cup, perhaps highlighting the start of the plateau. A good plateau that required less cricket and while the two Kiwi County Tour lads need longform cricket in England ahead of the Test series in England, Jamieson needs to chill out. Jamieson burst on to the scene and played lots of cricket, bringing high expectations that would never be sustainable.
Now Jamieson has time to enjoy a break. Like a hearty kiwi, Jamieson embraced self-awareness over IPL money this year. His IPL excursion was and would be different to any other Blackcap due to his price tag, which isn't healthy either. Consider this a pit-stop for Jamieson.
Aotearoa doesn't need Jamieson firing as there are three legends leading the seam attack and a team of grizzly Test cricketers around him. Jamieson is incredibly useful though and while we shouldn't expect freakish mahi from Jamieson, there is a cozy pocket for Jamieson in this bowling unit where he just needs to do his job.
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Peace and love.