2023 ODI World Cup: Blackcaps Grinding
Blackcaps defeated Netherlands overnight to grab two wins without Kane Williamson and Tim Southee at the World Cup. Batting first New Zealand put up 322/7 with Will Young bouncing back from his niggly dismissal against England to score 70 runs, along with 50-odds from Rachin Ravindra and Tom Latham.
Daryl Mitchell chimed in with 48 runs which means that all batters in the top-five have enjoyed a dose of run-scoring and Mitchell is the only bloke in the top-five who hasn't passed 50 runs yet. They did most of the mahi while Mitchell Santner whacked 36* @ 211sr and Matt Henry added further efficiency down the order with 10* @ 250sr.
Aotearoa served up a grit-and-grind bowling innings in which their fielding standards slipped slightly. Despite dropped catches and a few run-out misses, Blackcaps were able to strangle Netherlands with their fielding and tight bowling. In a sub-par fielding performance, the combination of Santner and Glenn Phillips prowling the inner circle stood out. Add in a run-out as Netherlands pushed for two and the general effort to restrict runs in the out-field for an innings in which Blackcaps showcased their ability even though their were a few errors.
Santner was the big donnie for wickets, finishing with 5w @ 5.9rpo. Henry snared 3w @ 4.7rpo and Ravindra took his second wicket of the tournament (4.6rpo). Trent Boult (4.2rpo) and Lockie Ferguson (4rpo) didn't take wickets but they were the most economical kiwi bowlers and Phillips was steady with 5.5rpo coming off his 2 overs.
Latham's knock offers intrigue as he is a key member of the 1st 11. As noted above in the Blackcaps ODI stats for this year, Latham hasn't had a great 2023 but this is a blip in an otherwise career-best zone for Latham. Since his debut in 2012, Latham averaged below 41 in eight consecutive years with strike-rates below 90 in all eight of those years. Here's how the 2020-22 phase looks...
2020: 48.66avg/107.3sr
2021: 128avg/90.7sr
2022: 55.8avg/101.2sr
2020 and 2021 feature less games, although Latham still scored a bunch of runs with high strike-rates. 2022's stats stem from 13 innings of ODI batting which produced the highest average/strike-rate combo of Latham's career. This year's ODI cricket was primarily a 2nd 11 group with Latham's 19 games/17 innings the most ODI mahi he's had in his career. Playing more cricket in a weaker team could have impacted Latham's batting and he flashed his ability against Netherlands with the highest strike-rate of the top-seven Blackcaps batters.
Latham may also have an impact as captain. Santner averages 24.36 with the ball under Latham's captaincy and this jumps up to 44.86avg under skipper Williamson. Santner is churning out similar ODI bowling to the start of his career; Santner has 10+ wickets with averages under 40 in consecutive years and this is the first time since 2016/17 Santner has done this.
Henry now has a record of 9w @ 21.6avg/5.1rpo for ODI bowling in India. Henry took 18w @ 23.1avg/4.7rpo in ODIs last year and he has backed in up with 20w @ 27avg/4.9rpo this year. Henry has averaged under 30 in six of his last seven years which can be tweaked for seven years averaging below 31 in ODI cricket (he averaged 30.6 in 2019).
The noisiest aspect of Blackcaps cricket is still Ferguson. Most of this probably comes from his dominant mahi at the 2019 event (21w @ 19.4avg/4.8rpo) but as we keep highlighting, Ferguson has struggled to find that form in recent years. Ferguson has the highest average (64avg) of all Blackcaps bowlers who have taken 5+ ODI wickets this year (including Mitchell, Phillips, Henry Shipley, Adam Milne, Blair Tickner and Michael Bracewell).
Ferguson isn't bowling as fast as some expect him to, yet his mahi is aligned with the last few years. Netherlands couldn't score many runs of Ferguson which was a bonus and after two years over 6rpo, Ferguson has dipped down to 5.8rpo this year. The perception of Ferguson still seems to be that of a 1st 11 monster for World Cup commentary but his stats suggest otherwise.
The key takeaway here though is the variety of options available for Blackcaps. Aotearoa won't react to one good or bad performance. Selection for Blackcaps is about conditions, combinations and adapting to the opponent. Ferguson is just one bloke in a squad full of job-doing pros.
12 players have been used so far. Williamson and Southee have injury niggles, leaving Ish Sodhi as the one available lad yet to play. This could change for the next two games against Bangladesh and Afghanistan which will both be played in Chennai where spin plays a hefty role. The versatility and depth of Blackcaps is emerging as a major asset so far. Blackcaps have their top-five scoring runs while the bowling is best summed up by having a spinner and seamer as their leading wicket-takers.
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Peace and love.