2023 ODI World Cup: After Battling Through Mud, Blackcaps Need To Defeat Sri Lanka
How's the Cricket World Cup going for New Zealand? The Blackcaps basically need a win against Sri Lanka on Thursday night. There is some net-run-rate wiggle room and here's a basic breakdown of the three teams who share eight points...
New Zealand: 4th | 0.398 NRR | next game vs Sri Lanka
Pakistan: 5th | 0.036 NRR | next game vs England
Afghanistan: 6th | -0.33 NRR | next games vs Australia, South Africa
Thankfully, the two teams in pursuit of Aotearoa have tough games coming up. England have already been dispatched from the tournament and while it's great to see England stink, it would be lovely if they departed this World Cup with a win over Pakistan. In any other scenario, many kiwis would be rooting for Afghanistan to climb into the semi-finals and showcase the growth of cricket, but not at the expense of Aotearoa please.
Blackcaps need to defeat Sri Lanka, ideally by a hefty margin. Blackcaps enter this game having lost four games in a row and as niggly as that is, Sri Lanka have lost three games in a row. The loss to Pakistan serves as a gauge of Blackcaps cricket right now as they can take part in the run-scoring festivities of this World Cup but the bowling has been exposed as a weakness against contending teams.
In 25 overs against Pakistan, Aotearoa conceded 7.84rpo and took just one wicket. This was the third game in a row where Blackcaps have conceded over 7rpo and India only needed to score at 5.7rpo in their run-chase to defeat Blackcaps. Five wickets have been taken by Blackcaps bowlers in the last two games and including the loss to India, 11/30 wickets have been taken. Blackcaps managed to take all 10 wickets against Australia but that was the most expensive outing for the kiwi bowlers of these last four games...
India: 274/6 batting second (5.7rpo)
Australia: 388 batting first (7.86rpo)
South Africa: 357/4 batting first (7.14rpo)
Pakistan: 200/1 batting second (7.84rpo)
Mitchell Santner sits above the rest of the available Blackcaps bowlers with Matt Henry now out of the World Cup due to his bung hammy. Four Blackcaps bowlers have churned out 50+ overs with Trent Boult not quite at his ruthless best and for all his batting excellence, Rachin Ravindra has a bowling average higher than his epic 74.71 batting average.
Blackcaps bowlers with 50+ overs..
Mitchell Santner: 72.4ov, 14w @ 26.85avg/5.17rpo
Matt Henry: 54.2ov, 11w @ 28.63avg/5.79rpo
Trent Boult: 71ov, 10w @ 38.1avg/5.36rpo
Rachin Ravindra: 51ov, 3w @ 104avg/6.11rpo
How Blackcaps absorb the loss of Henry will be crucial against Sri Lanka and hopefully finals cricket. Tim Southee has returned to the 1st 11 with 3w @ 34.6avg/6.93rpo and Jimmy Neesham is the only Blackcaps wicket-taker who has been more expensive (2w @ 10.8rpo). Lockie Ferguson has been the most efficient Blackcaps bowler, offering a lower average (8w @ 25.12avg/5.5rpo) and strike-rate than Sannter (27sr vs 29.6sr).
Ferguson hasn't played since the loss to Australia and as Blackcaps are essentially in must-win mode, one would assume he will return to face Sri Lanka. This is amplified by a few days off after the loss to Pakistan which should give Ferguson time to rest up, providing a dose of x-factor that the Blackcaps bowling attack requires. Kyle Jamieson offers that as well and he has replaced Henry in the squad, although there is no clarity in what Jamieson will offer this team.
Jamieson has not played an ODI or T20I in India, nor has he played Indian Premier League since 2021. This year Jamieson has been good in T20I cricket but mediocre in ODI cricket...
2023 T20Is: 21.8avg/8.3po
2023 ODIs: 71.6avg/6.7rpo
At least Jamieson is playing cricket. Five T20Is and five ODIs this year are the most games played in each format per year since his debut in 2020. Jamieson also bowled 34 overs during Canterbury's round two Plunket Shield game with 5w @ 16.8avg/2.4rpo with a tidy 44* sprinkled on top.
Kane Williamson provides a sense of comfort with his return to the 1st 11. Averaging 84 in ODIs this year, Williamson loves World Cup cricket with an average of 63 across 25 games. As noted in our Monday newsletter, Williamson is one of 27 batters who have scored 1,000+ runs in ODI World Cups and he has the highest average of them all. Let's say Williamson is the best batter in the world.
One pocket to watch out for with Blackcaps batters is Devon Conway. Conway scored almost half of his World Cup runs in that knock of 152* against England with scores of 32, 45, 20, 0, 28, 2 and 35 since then. Conway scored less than 30 against the other teams in the top-four right now and piles of runs from other blokes have brushed aside a rare lack of runs from Conway. On top of that, Conway hasn't played against Sri Lanka in ODIs and he has played one game against them in T20Is.
Blackcaps have an ODI record of 51-41 against Sri Lanka which improves to 14-3 since the start of 2015. Having struggled against the best teams at this World Cup, Blackcaps rarely lose to teams below them in World Cup rankings (aside from DLS battles). There is more than enough talent and cricketing nous for Aotearoa to seal their semi-final spot with a win over Sri Lanka. Let's not ponder the alternative.
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Peace and love.