New Zealand heads to India for three Tests in the World Test Championship and while that's always a recipe for kiwi underdog status, expectations for this Test series should be low. Lower than the WTC batting average of 15 for Devon Conway and Tom Blundell as Blackcaps have seen their mana vanish this year with a Test series sweep in Sri Lanka following on from a horrible T20 World Cup campaign.

Kane Williamson is out injured for the first Test at least and Mark Chapman steps into the squad, although Chapman probably sits behind Will Young in the pecking order. Fueling any negative yarns about Williamson's excellence is his Test batting average of 33.5 against India in their home conditions. While kiwis always feel more staunch about Blackcaps batting with Williamson in the line up, he has two 50+ scores in his last 10 innings in India and that's less than Tom Latham's five 50+ scores in the same period.

Latham is now the captain and this should ease up the angst about Tim Southee's mahi dipping as skipper, although Latham is in the midst of his worst calendar year of Test batting.

This comes during a phase in which Latham has just two centuries in five years of Test batting. Latham scored a Test century in six consecutive years to start his Test career with at least two centuries in four of those years, so this is an awkward time for Latham to be stepping up as skipper. Latham is also a few runs worse as skipper...

• Tom Latham as captain: 31avg/52.5sr

• Tom Latham not captain: 40.3avg/46sr

With one 50+ score in 15 innings as captain, Latham needs to find some juice to lead the Blackcaps through actions. At least his 50+ knock was a big ol' 252 runs and his five 50+ scores in India breaks down to one 50+ score per Test in India. Latham is working against historical forces as well with New Zealand grabbing two wins across 36 Tests in India against the hosts, for a 2-17-17 record overall.

Southee and Ajaz Patel are the only Blackcaps in this squad who average below 30 in India. Patel's 17w @ 22avg/3.1rpo makes him the best bowler in this group against India in their conditions and Southee's 20w @ 28.7avg/2.9rpo is solid, especially as every other bowler in this squad averages over 40 in their previous tours of India.

There is lots of buzz about Blackcaps captains which doesn't feel suitable to how the current team operates. Blackcaps are on their third Test captain since the pandemic started, with no one offering a culture-shifting style of leadership. When packaged with results, that's a negative note but it's also merely an observation about how Blackcaps lead by committee and there hasn't been much difference between the three captains when they've had their opportunities.

Blackcaps will play at different venues than the recent India vs Bangladesh Test series, so it's tricky to gauge what skills will be best suited to conditions in Bengaluru, Pune and Mumbai. India have a strong seam bowling department which has seen them embrace conditions for seam and spin, which may allow Blackcaps to roll out three seamers while still playing with three spin options.

Southee has a better record in India against the hosts than Trent Boult (38.6avg/3.3rpo) and he could be given a crack to gather confidence without the captaincy. There is no need to grind Southee down across three Tests though and this aligns nicely with a fresh Matt Henry, along with Will O'Rourke smashing hands. Conditions will dictate whether Southee plays the first Test or if Blackcaps roll with the spin of Mitchell Santner or Michael Bracewell; neither of which seems like a better, reliable bowling option than Southee.

The best Blackcaps batting unit has Young at numero toru, filling Williamson's spot. Young has quietly stacked up 50+ scores without a dominant patch of form. As an opener who was plugging a hole, Young had five 50+ scores in 21 innings (22.7avg) and he has been far more efficient in other roles. Young has one 50+ score in three innings batting third (44.3avg) and one 50+ score in two innings batting fifth (96avg).

Playing Chapman in the 1st 11 would most likely come at the expense of Young or bumping Young into a less favourabe role such as opening. Chapman can bat in every position and as he is hunting his Test debut, he may have to open the batting like Young did to snap up opportunities. Chapman deserves his squad selection with a First-Class batting average of 42.8 across 44 games (41.9avg in List-A) and he has generally performed well in Asia for his ODI/T20I Blackcaps outings.

Here's my favourite 1st 11...

Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell (wk), Glenn Phillips, Matt Henry, Ajaz Patel, Tim Southee, Will O'Rourke

Squad: Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Michael Bracewell/Ish Sodhi, Ben Sears

Lower expectations and zone in on the most exciting aspect of Blackcaps Test cricket which is the trio of emerging Test players. Ravindra, Phillips and O'Rourke are exceptional talents who make tracking Blackcaps cricket closely so fun. Here's their Test mahi so far..

• Rachin Ravindra: 39.5avg/50.9sr | 40.8avg/2.9rpo

• Glenn Phillips: 33.5avg/74.5sr | 24.5avg/3.1rpo

• Will O'Rourke: 19.7avg/3.1rpo

Given that Williamson is injured and Henry didn't play in Sri Lanka, a case can be made that these three lads are the best Blackcaps right now. Ravindra and O'Rourke are a smidge below Williamson/Henry in WTC for Aotearoa with bat and ball, while Phillips is the x-factor of this team who is perfectly suited to his all-rounder role.

Phillips has hit 16 sixes in this WTC cycle which puts him fifth for all WTC batters. India, England and Australia play far more Tests than everyone else so the greedy buggers have more numbers, leaving Phillips and Sri Lanka's Kamindu Mendis as the only WTC batters who have 15+ sixes in less than 10 Tests.

Six batters have 16+ sixes and Phillips (81.2sr) is the only bloke with a strike-rate over 72. 15 batters have hit more than nine sixes and the only other player with a strike-rate over 80 in this group is Harry Brook (81.8sr). This highlights how much funk Phillips has added to the Blackcaps batting unit, while also tied with Patel on 22w as Henry leads Blackcaps bowlers in the WTC on 23w.

Phillips is third for Blackcaps runs in WTC with a strike-rate of 81.2 and the most sixes. He also has the same number of wickets with a slightly better average (24.5) than Patel (28.1) and is the best fielder in the team. Ravindra joins Williamson as the only kiwis with averages over 40 and O'Rourke joins Henry as the only bowlers averaging below 20.

A bit quirky, but Henry is the best batter of the bowlers and we didn't get to see him batting alongside Phillips in Sri Lanka. Henry is second to Phillips for WTC sixes (8) and aside from Neil Wagner bowing out of Test cricket with a knock of 33 runs @ 122sr, Henry is the only kiwi with a strike-rate over 100 in this WTC cycle (110.4sr).

Ravindra has locked down his spot in the batting line up and O'Rourke is already a 1st 11 bowler. O'Rourke is unlikely to play all three Tests in India though and Sears will get a crack at some stage, while Santner and Bracewell can add another spin option to the team. Bracewell is only available for the first Test (replaced by Sodhi) and Santner scored enough runs in Sri Lanka to keep his spot ahead of Bracewell as the next up spinner if Blackcaps roll with two specialist spinners and two seamers.

If you didn't know by now, Blackcaps are in a period of transition and blokes need runs/wickets to keep their spots in the team. There is a teeny-weeny chance Blackcaps get a draw, let alone a win in India and while that's a bummer, it is the reality of playing Test cricket in India. Whether it's the three emerging Test lads in Ravindra, Phillips and O'Rourke or the pressure on more established lads to perform (including the previous and current captain), there are lots of important Blackcaps storylines to follow over the next few weeks.

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