New Zealand vs England First Test Preview
New Zealand starts the kiwi summer of cricket with the first Test against England at Hagley Oval in Christchurch on Thursday. England got their tour underway with a warm up game in Queenstown against a team of lads who aren't in their domestic 1st 11s right now and while there is little insight to gain from such warm uppy games, England flashed their eager batting style by scoring at 5.5rpo and then 8.9rpo.
The NZ 11 also snared 19 wickets across both innings and a bunch of lads scored runs, only losing 5 wickets in their second innings of 313/5 declared. England will slide north from Queenston to Christchurch where they had a draw in 2018, which was part of an eight-Test run in which the Blackcaps didn't lose a Test at Hagley Oval. That has since flipped with a loss vs South Africa, win vs Sri Lanka and loss vs Australia in Aotearoa's last three Tests at Hagley Oval.
Seam/swing bowling is usually a reliable ingredient to success in Christchurch. The kiwis have selected Jacob Duffy and Nathan Smith alongside Matt Henry, Tim Southee and Will O'Rourke. Glenn Phillips will lead the spin attack for the first Test, with Mitchell Santner selected for the second and third Tests in the North Island.
Canterbury has played two games at Hagley Oval this season.
The first was a Ford Trophy game in which Chad Bowes whacked 205 runs @ 186sr for the hosts. Zak Foulkes (49* @ 107sr) was the only other Cantab to score 30+ runs and Otago had 8 wickets shared between seamers Matthew Bacon (5w) and Andrew Hazeldine (3w). Canterbury then dismissed Otago for 103 with seamers Foulkes (2w) and Sean Davey (3w) joined by lefty-leggy Michael Rippon's 3 wickets.
Northern Districts' win over Canterbury in the Plunket Shield further laid out the Hagley Oval recipe. Bowes hit another century in swift styles, while ND had Jeet Raval and Bharat Popli scoring 70+ runs in a winning run chase. Both teams had innings totals of 350+ runs while Canterbury was also dismissed for 193 which set up the final chase.
All ND's wickets were taken by seamers and they only bowled 3 overs of spin in the first innings. Canterbury opened the bowling with Cole McConchie and Rippon in their first bowling effort but neither took a wicket, then McConchie took 2w @ 5.2rpo as Cantebury's three spinners combined for 8.5 overs (of 52.5ov). While spinners haven’t taken many wickets in these games, Canterbury usually play two spinners in their 1st 11 regardless of the format with Rippon/McConchie joined by Ish Sodhi when he’s available.
Good batters can score runs in Christchurch and good seamers will take wickets. Kane Williamson is the best Blackcaps spinner at Hagley Oval (2w @ 17avg/3rpo) and he's the only kiwi spinner who has more than a single wicket, as well as the only kiwi spinner to average below 40. Phillips took 1w @ 41avg/2.4rpo in the Test vs Australia last year and while there could be an opportunity to select a seaming all-rounder like Smith in that role, Phillips has all but locked down the 1st 11 all-rounder role in any conditions.
Williamson is back in the mix after scoring 60 runs in his Plunket Shield appearance for Northern Districts last week. Williamson can replace Will Young in the 1st 11 which would open up another bowling slot, or the Blackcaps can bolster their batting line up with Young staying in the middle order. Young deserves 1st 11 selection, but he's also a hearty kiwi who will do anything for Aotearoa and if he dips out of the team to make way for Williamson, all batters have pressure to perform with Young hunting another Test or two.
This delivers a top-seven of Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell and Phillips. Four spots left which leaves room for Duffy or Smith to be selected alongside the trio of Henry, Southee and O'Rourke. Duffy and Smith are both deserving of squad selection, with Aotearoa's depth on display as Kyle Jamieson and Ben Sears are both out injured at the moment.
The Basin Reserve is now Smith's home ground for Wellington and that would be a lovely spot for him to debut, although conditions in Christchurch and Smith's batting ability are perfect for Hagley Oval. Smith would bat ahead of Henry and Henry should be batting ahead of Southee as he has scored 156 runs @ 103sr in this World Test Championship cycle, as well as a healthy record on his home deck.
Here's a funky comparison for Test batting at Hagley Oval...
Matt Henry: 9inns, 266 runs @ 33.25avg/85sr, 3 x 50
Will Young: 8inns, 80 runs @ 13.3avg/37sr, 1 x 50
Smith averages 25+ in First-Class and List-A batting, with a T20 strike-rate of 128. Add in his FC bowling record of 25.85avg/2.8rpo and Smith's taste of Blackcaps cricket in Sri Lanka, this seems like the ideal moment for his debut. Duffy wasn't far behind Smith in the Plunket Shield last summer though and these two make for another funky comparison...
2023/24 Plunket Shield
Nathan Smith: 33w @ 17.18avg/2.9rpo (245 runs @ 24.5avg/59sr, 2 x 50)
Jacob Duffy: 31w @ 24.4avg/2.8rpo (83 runs @ 6.3avg/49sr)
2024 County Championship Division One
Nathan Smith: 27w @ 21.1avg/3.1rpo (214 runs @ 30.5avg/55sr, 3 x 50)
Jacob Duffy: 6w @ 32.3avg/4rpo (31 runs @ 31avg/59sr)
The weakest spot in the batting unit right now is Blundell and then Mitchell, who both average 65+ in Tests vs England. Legend Charles 'Stewie' Dempster is the only kiwi batter with a higher Test average vs England (88.4) than Mitchell (74.1) and Blundell (68.4). Mitchell is now averaging below 30 in this WTC cycle and Blundell's 14avg is lower than Henry's 17.3avg.
Mitchell and Blundell both had a 50+ score in Sri Lanka. Mitchell scored 15+ runs in every innings of the Indian sweep, with an 82 in the third Test. Blundell had one knock over 5 runs in India. While it wasn't enough to save him from 'most out of form' status, Blundell's 41 runs in the second innings of the second Test was one of three scores over 40 runs and it helped nudge New Zealand's lead over 350 runs.
Blundell scored more runs in two Tests vs Sri Lanka than he did in three Tests vs India, but he found a way to put up a solid score to help his team win a Test in India. Blundell also finished last summer with a 103 runs in the Plunket Shield and his one appearance for Wellington in the Plunket Shield a few weeks ago featured scores of 6 and 63, with his 63 runs coming when none of his comrades scored 30+ runs in that innings.
Speaking of Plunket Shield, here is how all the Blackcaps Test players have performed...
Kane Williamson: 64 runs @ 32avg/50sr, 1 x 50
Tim Southee: 2 runs @ 2avg/40sr | 2w @ 27.5avg/2.2rpo
Devon Conway: 64 runs @ 32avg/51sr
Rachin Ravindra: 7 runs @ 3.5avg/33sr | 1w @ 1avg/1rpo
Tom Blundell: 69 runs @ 34.5avg/70sr, 1 x 50
Tom Latham: 59 runs @ 29.5avg/45sr
Daryl Mitchell: 49 runs @ 24.5avg/48sr | 2w @ 13avg/1.8rpo
Matt Henry: 11 runs @ 5.5avg/50sr | 3w @ 33avg/2.9rpo
Will O'Rourke: 5w @ 16avg/2.5rpo
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