New Zealand vs England Second Test Preview
New Zealand's loss to England in Christchurch saw them slide back into their status-quo and perhaps some expectations need adjusting given how different the tour of India was compared to nearly everything else Blackcaps have done in recent years. All the pesky elements of the loss vs England fit snug into greater trends for Aotearoa in Test cricket...
Blackcaps have lost a home Test in four consecutive summers. It started with a loss vs Bangladesh early in 2022, followed by a loss vs South Africa later that summer. The next summer Blackcaps lost to England (early in 2023) and last summer they lost two Tests against Australia.
The only Test series that New Zealand has won since the start of 2022 were against Sri Lanka and South Africa's 2nd/3rd 11. Blackcaps have now lost three consecutive Tests in Aotearoa after the loss vs England and their 7-6 record in home conditions during this period, slips to 5-6 if we take out the series against South Africa last summer.
New Zealand does not appear to have a clear home advantage in Test cricket right now. This is compounded by a 1-5 record against the Brendon McCullum’s England team, which is then amplified by the margins of these results...
All of England's wins are by 5+ wickets or 200+ runs. Aotearoa's one win was by 1 run.
Combine the diminishing/non-existent home advantage with England's dominance over Blackcaps during the McCullum era and the loss at Hagley Oval smells a lot like a suitable outcome. Those results obviously stem from individual performances and there is nothing new about the lads who struggled the most in the first Test vs England.
Devon Conway and Tom Blundell combined to score 27 runs in the first Test. Conway averaged 40+ in his first two years of Test batting, now he's in his second consecutive year averaging below 35. Unfortunately for Conway, he's averaging 23 this year and 21 in this World Test Championship. Blundell is averaging 15.8 this year and 13.5 in the WTC.
Tom Latham looked good for most of his 47 runs in the first innings vs England, but he is averaging 23.3 in the WTC and 25.5 this year. Latham is battling through his worst year of Test batting which is his first year averaging below 30.
Tim Southee took 2w @ 4.8rpo in the first Test. This means that Southee has not taken more than 2w in a Test since his 4w vs Sri Lanka in March, 2023. That's 11 consecutive Tests in which Southee has taken 2w or less ... not in an innings but the whole Test. Southee is averaging 52.4 in the WTC and 60.8 in Tests this year, which is his worst year of Test bowling (second year over 50avg with 55.6avg in 2009).
Southee is also part of kiwi seamers being less effective in Aotearoa. Since the start of 2022, the only seamers averaging below 30 are Trent Boult (9w @ 19avg in 2022), Matt Henry (19.3avg), Kyle Jamieson (24.7avg) and Will O'Rourke (27.3avg). Boult doesn't know if he's retired or not but he's not playing and Jamieson hasn't played for almost a year, leaving Henry and O'Rourke as the only seamers who have played recently below the 30avg mark.
More to the point, there are nine kiwi seamers averaging 30+ in home conditions during this period. This includes emerging lads like Ben Sears and Nathan Smith who have played just one Test, as well as Colin de Grandhomme, Neil Wagner, Southee, Blair Tickner, Doug Bracewell, Scott Kuggeleijn and Daryl Mitchell.
That covers a wide spread of kiwi seamers and points to the Blackcaps struggles in home conditions. Most New Zealand seamers are struggling to snare lots of wickets with Henry and Southee the only lads since the start of 2022 with multiple 5-wicket-baggies, plus the are mostly over 3rpo; Boult, Henry, de Grandhomme and Bracewell are the only seamers below 3rpo and Henry's the only bloke currently playing.
Even the Blackcaps catching woes fall into a wider trend...
For your sanity, it's probably best to view the Blackcaps series sweep in India as an outlier that bucked against all the notable trends in Blackcaps cricket. The first Test vs England seems more like normal service, keep in mind that the Blackcaps struggles at home were followed up with an 0-2 sweep in Sri Lanka just prior to the tour of India.
England on the other hand are the only team to score 400+ runs at Hagley Oval in the last four Tests played there. England had six batters with strike-rates over 80 and the Blackcaps had none.
England had two bowlers take 4+ wickets with Brydon Carse snaring 10w and spinner Shoaib Bashir taking 4 wickets, while Henry was the only Blackcaps bowler to take 4+ wickets. Bashir is the only spinner to take 4+ wickets in the last four Tests at Hagley Oval and that group includes six other spinners, most notably Keshav Maharaj and Nathan Lyon who both took 3w in an innings at Hagley oval.
This sets up the second Test in Wellington where the best bowlers of each innings in the New Zealand loss vs Australia last summer were mainly spinners...
Matt Henry: 5w @ 2.3rpo
Nathan Lyon: 4w @ 5.2rpo
Glenn Phillips: 5w @ 2.8rpo
Nathan Lyon: 6w @ 2.4rpo
Blackcaps now have Mitchell Santner in the squad, as well as Will Young. Both would be comfy additions to the 1st 11 for this Test at the Basin Reserve and opinions will vary on how to inject these players into a losing team. To help frame/complicate matters, here are some Blackcaps at Basin Reserve stats...
Tom Latham: 44.63avg/48sr
Devon Conway: 46.33avg/52sr
Kane Williamson: 68.04avg/57sr
Rachin Ravindra: 29.5avg/55sr | 26avg/3.2rpo
Will Young: 15.4avg/35sr
Daryl Mitchell: 29.16avg | 18ov @ 5.6rpo
Tom Blundell: 55.16avg/56sr
Glenn Phillips: 36avg/93sr | 9avg/2.8rpo
Mitchell Santner: 45avg/65sr | 41avg/2.4rpo
Matt Henry: 13.2avg/97sr | 25.5avg/3rpo
Tim Southee: 13.6avg/95sr 32.9avg/3.2rpo
Will O'Rourke: 49avg/2.8rpo
An alternative perspective for the optimists...
Blackcaps are in a period of transition. Henry and Southee are the only seamers who have bowled in the last two WTC for New Zealand. O'Rourke, Sears and Nathan Smith have made Test debuts in the last two summers.
Jamieson's a certified international seamer who is out injured. Lefty Ben Lister (FC average of 25.7) has potential to add to the Blackcaps seam depth but he's also yet to bowl this summer due to injury. Like Lister, Zak Foulkes (FC average of 26.4) has played ODIs/T20Is for Aotearoa and there are plenty more deep cut seamers to track in Plunket Shield: Brett Randell (24.8avg), Matt Fisher (25.1avg), Ray Toole (26.8avg), Kristian Clarke (29.4avg), Luke Georgeson (34avg).
Aotearoa has two 22-year-olds making waves with the bat...
Bevon Jacobs just got an IPL contract thanks to his T20 record of 33.5avg/189sr but his first three games of Plunket Shield have produced three 50+ scores and 55.8avg/61sr. Jacobs commanded attention with his limited overs mahi for Cantebury last summer and his return to Auckland has seen him showcase his longform batting prowess.
Rhys Mariu has scores of 240, 8* and 185 in two games as captain of Canterbury. Now averaging 70.1 after 19 innings in Plunket Shield, Mariu's strike-rate this season of 74.9 is the highest of the top-five run-scorers and he's the only bloke over 62sr.
Three young wicket-keepers to track...
Mitch Hay (24yrs - Canterbury)
FC batting average of 46.9. Already played five ODIs/T20Is.
Max Chu (24yrs - Otago)
FC batting average of 31.9. Averaging 57.5 in Plunket Shield this season with three 50+ scores in five innings.
Ben Pomare (22yrs - Northern Districts)
FC batting average of 53. Three not-outs in six innings boost the average, two of those not-outs have come this season with scores of 36*, 14 and 82*.
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