NRL Finals Week One Preview
G, run it straight.
Broncos vs Titans
Match Up
Darius Boyd vs Jarryd Hayne: Two of the best, yet Boyd's presence in the Broncos backline only makes their work more slick and Hayne's presence in the Titans backline has created a bit of a kerfuffle. Balancing things out though is Hayne's running game and his ability to kick long and accurately, both of which he does better than Boyd.
Sam Thaiday vs Chris McQueen: Thaiday has been in great form as Brisbane stormed home into the Finals and he'll look to put McQueen in the shade. McQueen didn't warrant Queensland selection this year, but has been strong for the Titans and this is a great match up because both are big and aggressive, yet they both move like outside backs.
Key Men
Nathan Peats will start the game at hooker and while he'll need to provide crisp service to Ash Taylor and Tyrone Roberts, Peats will come into his own when he decides to run the footy. Brisbane are a fantastic defensive team as the slide across the field and cover the inside channels (thanks purely to their effort and desire), so Peats must punch holes in behind the ruck. This will give Gold Coast quicker ball, while also offering up some space out wide but I reckon Gold Coast will benefit most from blowing Brisbane away through the middle and Peats' work here in conjunction with the likes of Greg Bird's footwork and their big forwards, will put Brisbane on the back foot.
Also keep tabs on the work of Ben Hunt, not so much in his dynamic work running the footy or his passing but his kicking. Brisbane could find themselves struggling to storm down field, as we can expect this big Titans forward pack to be fired up and Hunt will often be kicking from around his 30m-line. With Hayne waiting for Hunt's kicks, Hunt can't afford to be kicking down Hayne's throat either, so Hunt must be super accurate with his long kicks and find green pastures.
Keep An Eye On
We don't quite know how either bench will look as both have extended their bench. Brisbane will likely roll out Jarrod Wallace, Tevita Pangai Junior, Jai Arrow and Alex Glenn while Gold Coast will likely have Leivaha Pulu, Ryan Simpkins, Agnatius Paasi and Nathan Friend on their bench. Regardless, be sure to pay attention around the 25 minute mark because there's low key firepower on either bench and the Broncos will need to respond to the power offered by Pulu and Paasi especially.
Verdict
It's hard to go past Brisbane as they are coming into this game hot and have settled back into playing how know they can. I can see Gold Coast getting an upset though, this will come with a huge game from the Titans forwards and some razzle dazzle on attack. If Gold Coast want to grind with Brisbane or rely on their attacking moves (that have kinda sucked so far) then this will be Brisbane's for the taking.
Raiders vs Sharks
Match Up
Joseph Leilua/Jordan Rapana vs Ricky Leutele/Sosaia Feki: The Raiders right edge has been fabulous all season and they will come up against a Sharks left edge that has been a bit mix and match this season. Feki has either played on the wing for 80 minutes, been pulled off at various points in a game or he's been injured and Leutele has been switched with Gerard Beale regularly. Now we get to see the Leutele/Feki combo in action again and they'll be tasked with trying to limit the effectiveness of Leilua/Rapana.
Josh Papalii vs Luke Lewis: On the other edge, we've got one of my favourite forwards this season in Papalii up against the veteran-who-still-delivers in Lewis. Both are athleticaly rather freakish and their footwork would break our ankles, yet their size and power gives them both an advantage over their oppositition.
Key Men
When the Raiders are playing their best footy, Josh Hodgson is heavily involved but not overly dominant. The Raiders definitely need Hodgson to be at his best with his distribution, kicking and running around the ruck area definitley crucial in breaking down this Cronulla side, although Hodgson doesn't need to over-play his hand as he's got there firepower around him to handle that. During the season, Hodgson tends to take on the majority of the play-making duties mainly when the Raiders are down on troops, in Finals footy he's just gotta do his job and that will probably be good enough to help the Raiders win.
This is it for Ben Barba. We've seen how great he's been this season, we've heard all year how well he's been training and all of that, it doesn't really matter unless Barba steps up and does his freaky stuff in Finals footy. The Raiders have size through the middle, which could play into Barba's hands if he's eager to hover around the footy in the middle and Barba's speed could cause edge defenders like Papalii, all sorts of dramas.
Keep An Eye On
Gerard Beale will come off the bench and how he's used will be interesting. This could be a straight swap for Feki - as we've seen this season - or he could be used somewhere else, either way I do think we'll see Beale given a decent crack and it's an asset to have extra speed/footwork on your bench these days.
Lots of talk about Andrew Fifita recently - watch out for him as he'll be eager to let his footy do the talking. Fifita's meat and two vege is 15 carries/160m with tackle busts and offloads, so if he's fired up then we can expect a huge game.
Verdict
I'm liking the Raiders, especially in Canberra. Their forward pack has been dominant for much of the season and if their play-makers are on-song, then it should be enough to get the win. Cronulla simply need their game-breakers to fire, so if Barba, Jack Bird, Valentine Holmes and James Maloney are slightly off, they'll struggle.
Storm vs Cowboys
Match Up
Cooper Cronk vs Jonathan Thurston: Sit back, relax and enjoy this display of rugby league wizardry folks.
Cameron Munster vs Lachlan Coote: Munster has proven himself to be almost level with James Tedesco in terms of running fullbacks in the NRL and many defenders struggle to wrap him up with that first contact, while Coote is basically a half. Munster will add his play-making touches to the Storm's backline but he'll mainly be given the footy with space to run and Coote will be creating havoc down the Cowboys left edge. Look for Coote to get the footy from Jonathan Thurston, with Coote capable of putting a kick in or throwing the right pass.
Key Men
Jesse Bromwich is in for a long night, trying to slow down Matt Scott, James Tamou and Jason Taumalolo. Of course, Bromwich will have help from his comrades in the middle (Dale Finucane is a hitman) but what is crucial is how the defensive workload impacts Bromwich's effectiveness with the footy. Bromwich sparks so much of Melbourne's attack either with an offload or simply with a quick play-the-ball via some footwork and the Cowboys will know this so they'll look to gang up on him and put numbers in front of him. This is a test for NRL's best prop that will be great to watch.
Suliasi Vunivalu and Marika Koroibete will also be key as they will do much of the work in returning kicks. Both are quick and powerful, making them much more dangerous than Munster so first of all keep tabs on Munster giving them the footy in the back-field, then we need to see how the two Fijians start the set of six off for the Storm. All it takes one of them poking through the defensive line, quick play-the-ball and then the Storm are off down the field.
Keep An Eye On
Will Chambers is always a fun joker to watch as he's arguably the best centre in the NRL but he's never really mentioned in that bracket. His eagerness or recklessness in carrying the footy gives the Storm a dose of energy and his footwork around the ruck, then out wider on the edge is always a handful.
Scott Bolton and Ben Hannant have given the Cowboys great service of the bench for two seasons now and just peep how the Cowboys maintain a strong roll on down the field, even when Scott and Tamou are off. Taumalolo will stay on the field longer than Scott and Tamou as well, with the Tongan toko taking a break just before half-time and just after.
Verdict
Cowboys. Both teams have a second chance and I don't think this is the best Storm side available to Craig Bellamy (Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Felise Kaufusi are named in reserve grade), so some cheeky mind games from Bellamy could be at play here.
Panthers vs Bulldogs
Match Up
Trent Merrin vs David Klemmer: Two locks who offer plenty of oomph through the middle, however they go about their business in different ways as Merrin relies on his footwork and Klemmer only knows how to run it straight. Both will look to offload while making big metres and these two will go at it set after set after set.
Leilani Latu vs James Graham: Also in the middle, we have two props who love to cart the ball forward but can often be seen passing the ball inside of running it. Graham's passing mainly comes well before the line and he's used at first-receiver to get the footy to another big bopper or a half, effectively playing as the link between Michael Lichaa and whoever is up to get the footy. Latu however tends to do more passing at the line, luring in defenders who think he's gonna run and then firing a short pass to another forward or passing out the back.
Key Men
Anyone who hasn't been impressed by Nathan Cleary is about as silly as a politician. Cleary has done an excellent job in the basic tasks of an NRL halfback while also showing that he's eager to take a hit in running the footy when the opportunity presents itself. How he responds on the big stage, with the Bulldogs guaranteed to put him under all sorts of pressure will be interesting and crucial to this game's result.
Don't pay too much attention to what happens in the first 20 minutes as everything will change with Sam Kasiano joins the ruckus. Kasiano will steamroll blokes, he'll offload and he'll fire some of the slickest passes you'll see from a forward - that's if he's in the right mood and after a few weeks on the sideline, I reckon he'll be in the mood.
Keep An Eye On
What does Brett Morris offer that Will Hopoate didn't? Will there be a difference (better or worse)? This will be interesting to observe and I honestly don't know what to expect, other than knowing that Des Hasler would have had BMoz doing plenty of training at fullback in preparation for this.
Verdict
The speed and skill of the Panthers has me leaning towards them, especially as their unpredictability and funk in attack will lend itself nicely to breaking down one of the best defences in the NRL. If the Doggies win, it'll come from emphatic performances from their big boppers, a performance bordering on bullying.