Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Doesn't Matter Who Is In The Warriors Spine...
Yeah, nah...
Shaun Johnson's out injured and Mason Lino comes into halfback to partner Kieran Foran ahead of Ata Hingano who will still come off the bench to play hooker because he's awesome and I've wondered all week how Lino and Foran are going to play together because Lino is a very different halfback to Johson and Foran's gapping soon so he's gotta step up and pay the Warriors back for the good vibes they sent Foran's way. Lino and Foran will be playing against Te Maire Martin who could state his case for a Kiwis World Cup spot and Michael Morgan who is just awesome but you can't sleep on the importance of Lachlan Coote either as he plays as a half and does just as much - if not more - than Martin and Morgan.
*takes a deep breath*
Umm, but the Warriors will take on a Cowboys forward pack featuring: Jason Taumalolo, Scott Bolton, John Asiata and Coen Hess, with Gavin Cooper and Ethan Lowe on the edges.
A Cowboys forward pack that is simply a whole lot better than the Warriors forward pack.
Yep, a lot of attention has been directed towards the Warriors play-makers this week and to be honest all the Warriors' woes this season tend to be blamed on their under-performing Kiwis spine (need I remind y'all that the Kiwis spine has been reasonably crap for the past 12 months and looked terrible in the Anzac Test). That deflects away from a Warriors forward pack that rarely dominates their opposition, barely maintaining parity for their play-makers.
And now that Warriors forward pack comes up against the best forward in the game, an absolute freak-a-zoid in Hess and his Origin comrade Cooper as well as the best battler in the NRL Mr Bolton.
While Jacob Lillyman was cashing his monthly salary with a measly 35 minutes, 80m from 9 carries last week vs Penrith, Bolton had 66 mintues with 178m from 19 carries in the Cowboys win over South Sydney.
While Sam Lisone came off the bench to play 40 minutes with 54m from 7 carries last week, Bolton's second in command of Lord Battler Gang, Shaun Fensom came off the bench to play 46 minutes with 124m from 14 carries.
Get the jist? The Warriors forward pack kinda sucks and they've got a fresh halves combination to get on the front foot, in Townsville.
One would assume that Lillyman, Ben Matulino and Simon Mannering should get an advantage in the opening stanza over Bolton, Taumalolo and John Asiata but that's the problem; Mannering's gonna be put in the shade by Taumalolo while Bolton and Asiata are likely to do more through the middle than their opponents simply thanks to enthusiasm and desire.
Ligi Sao and Corey Jensen cancel each other out, with a points win to Jensen as he got through 24 minutes with 89m from 9 carries last week while Sao had 7m from a lone carry in 14 minutes. James Gavet has been great this season, so has Hess though and the Gavet/Lisone oomph is going to have to be at a season high just to nullify Hess' impact, let alone the graft offered by Fensom.
This doesn't have me overly excited about the Warriors' prospects, which is why this is such a massive game not only in terms of holding on to hope of a Finals spot but we're still waiting on word of Lillyman's future. That's an interesting nugget to ponder as Lillyman has done little to suggest that he's demanding a new Warriors contract, yet if the Warriors forwards can't got to Townsville and do a solid job, they damn sure ain't good enough to do anything in Finals footy.
For the record; I'm not fussed either way as I believe the Warriors forward pack will be a lot better next season based on it not being an old, slow, clunky pack and instead being mobile, aggressive, skillful and enthusiastic forward pack.
The Warriors cover up their lack of dominance via their forwards with strong contributions from their outside backs. I'd much rather have a ruthless forward pack but we don't, so the Warriors could pose a threat with speed and footwork offered from their backs, cutting back around the ruck and making a visible effort to push up in support of Issac Luke.
After the Penrith game I highlighted how the Warriors don't get out of dummy half - other than Luke - and instead prefer to go one pass out and give the ball to Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, or Ken Maumalo, or David Fusitua and tell them to run into three forwards. That ain't working, so scoot out of dummy half, engage middle defenders and make them move, force them to make repeat efforts and blast through that ruck area.
The Cowboys are the 3rd best defensive team; only Cronulla and Melbourne have conceded fewer points than North Queensland. So if the Warriors think that their slow shifts to the edges are going to produce points, they'll be in for a surprise. If the Warriors can plow through the middle with speed and footwork, they'll earn the right to then probe out wider. The Warriors try to hit edges without any middle dominance though and that's not going to work against the Cowboys.
Keep a close eye on Bunty Afoa this week, as he'll be trying to stop the Morgan/Martin combination on the Warriors left edge. Afoa has largely been a non-factor in the two games he's played since being gifted a starting spot thanks to Ryan Hoffman's injury and he's coming off a 66 minute effort in which he only had 5 carries for 43m and missed 5 tackles. The Cowboys would have identified Afoa's defensive combination with Foran, especially after Manly exploited it and Penrith then sent a lot of traffic that way last week.
There's more firepower in that Cowboys team, so this sets up a big ol' test for Afoa and as Afoa came through the system, we heard a lot about his work rate and all that good stuff. He may work hard and ooze effort, it's just hasn't been all that effective recently and Afoa definitely won't be playing left edge next season, so he's gonna have to show something or risk falling back into the chasing peloton.
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