Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Peace and Love On Kearney Island - Maybe Blair Island As Well

An opportunity, just don't expect crazy changes.

May we bow our heads, prayer hands emoji:

God, Jah, Buddha, Sun, Moon and Allah, thank you. We are grateful that the Warriors are not the Bulldogs, that the Warriors do not have politricksters plotting and scheming behind the scenes. We are grateful for our struggle and trust that with positive vibrations, Mt Smart is being rebuilt to house greatness. We are grateful and patient, Jah bless.

Canberra Raiders fans will be incredibly intrigued by what their team dishes up on Sunday afternoon. They're sniffing around the fringes of the top-eight and two points at Mt Smart will be crucial given that they are favourites most times they play in Canberra, this is a huge test for the Raiders and whether they are really 'bout it, 'bout it. Remember that the Raiders had higher expectations coming into this season than the Warriors, on the back of their deep Finals run last season and here they are; four points ahead of the Warriors.

As always, expectations are low about this weekend and that's by choice. I approach every Warriors game with low expectations at this stage of their rebuilding process and if you're reading this, I encourage to you as well. I do however feel better about this match up than last week's, mainly thanks to a return to Mt Smart and Canberra won't be as hyped as Newcastle were last week. Chuck in the return of Ryan Hoffman and I'm encouraged.

The weirdest thing is that Stephen Kearney hasn't really backed up his talk. I feel like I'm on Kearney Island, out here by myself, trusting that Kearney's got things sussed and I'm trying to preach to chill, give Kearney some time to rehab that 'terrible' culture and build a winning roster. None of that happens overnight, it takes time ya know. 

Kearney's been talking tough though, without actually doing anything about it other than making Issac Luke a scapegoat. At this stage, you could make a strong case for going all-in on preparing for next season, let alone really backing up your talking and holding more players accountable for their actions on the field.

Luke certainly didn't have his best game in Newcastle and at this stage of the season, it's highly beneficial to get Nathaniel Roache in starting, but I feel a bit sorry for Luke because when scooted out of dummy half for one of his 8 runs (for 88m, 11m/run), Luke never had support. Luke ran, looked around and there was no one.

That's not Luke's fault and it's been an issue all season. Newcastle always had Nathan Ross buzzing around the footy and with Roache likely to scoot plenty, then Luke coming off the bench, the Warriors need Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Ken Maumalo, David Fusitua and Solomone Kata staying in-field to push up in support of runners. 

Roache is a gun, just don't expect him starting to have a dramatic effect on the dummy half situation. Luke offers a wider arsenal of passes and and a slept on kicking-game which will keep him as the starter next season. We should all celebrate a Luke/Roache combo and if they can settle into a rhythm next season, their scootin' around dummy half will be ruthless and it's just one of many reasons to stay optimistic.

Next year is also Luke's last year on his contract. This is perfect because Luke will be playing for a new contract, while Roache has apparently signed for one year and Manaia Cherrington signed until the end of 2018. That means all three hookers will come off contract next season and the competition for game time, more opportunities to show why they should be re-signed will bring out the best. I can't see how the Warriors can lose in this situation as they're obviously not going to re-sign Luke on an upgraded contract when they have two younger hookers ready to go; Luke could be re-signed on a smaller deal where he'll be able to guide the youngins'. Anyway, that's for later next year.

I've been highlighting that the strengths of the Warriors players are ideally suited to plowing through the middle, raiding the ruck with speed, power and footwork. We've seen this in limited doses in 2017 and usually on the back of a dummy half run, when this does happen, the Warriors get quick play-the-balls and roll down-field. Canberra are ripe for the taking with Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd defending in the middle, then David Taylor will come on and Ricky Stuart has even moved Elliott Whitehead from an edge to defend in the middle.

Stuart could be up to some antics with Whitehead, moving him back to the edge for the game but hopefully we see the Warriors flex with their speed. I'm hopeful, just not all-in on that happening because we haven't seen too much of it this season but where the Warriors give up some size to Canberra's forwards, they've got speed and footwork to trouble the Raiders. 

Tevita Satae appears to be behind Isaiah Papalii, James Bell and Jazz Tevaga in the middle rankings, which could be because Kearney wants more mobile defenders. I reckon this is more about the sorting out process and Kearney's still trying to suss out players ahead of next season; Bell and Tevaga are very similar, so who's better at doing their job?

Keep in mind that this is a Warriors group without Albert Vete and James Gavet. Leivaha Pulu is on his way over the ditch next season as well, so that's three middle forwards who I've got ranked in the top-17, so the likes of Bell, Tevaga, Papalii, Sam Lisone and Tevita Satae are competing for limited spots. That makes this back-end of the season so fun; we get to observe who really wants to push their case for further selection and who can go to new levels.

Kearney's gotta figure out where Papalii is likely to find consistency in the NRL. Papalii has played middle in the Juniors and edge in the NRL, so this is a valuable opportunity to see where his lack of size but power and mobility is better used. 

Bunty Afoa is going to have an interesting match up against Josh Papalii - interesting in terms of 'yo Bunty, what ya got? Ryan Hoffman's return will help cover Joseph Tapine/Whitehead, leaving Afoa to face off against a top-three edge forward in the NRL. Keep in mind that Bodene Thompson is still off-contract and with Tohu Harris arriving next season, it'll be Afoa vs Thompson for that right edge spot. This is Afoa's opportunity to show how he's progressed this season and a strong performance could offer reason not to invest in Thompson.

Jacob Lillyman joins Thompson in being off-contract, with Roache apparently signed but the club will let the 10-day dumbo period pass before announcing it (imagine there being a 10-day cooling off period in the NBA, how silly). With what the Warriors have and what they need in mind, a move to sign Adam Blair would likely mean that they don't re-sign Lillyman and Thompson. 

I'm 1,000 percent all goods with that as the Warriors need better middle defence and Blair's career is built on that, while Lillyman's definitely is not. Lillyman's minutes will snapped up by James Gavet (MVP of 2017) and Afoa can cover Thompson's departure. 

Allow me to paddle back to Kearney Island, from there I'll go visit Blair Island while y'all keep your knickers in a twist.

Peace and love 27.

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