Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Ummm, So, Maybe, Perhaps Some Melbourne Storm Revenge?
'Cos when they boys aren't on, they get smoked.
Remember the Anzac Day hiding Melbourne Storm served up to Aotearoa Warriors? I can almost guarantee that won't happen this Sunday at Mt Smart, like, surely not. Unfortunately for the Warriors, this Storm team that is coming to Aotearoa features the returns of Billy Slater, Felise Kaufusi, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster and Will Chambers, along with Jesse Bromwich being back at full force.
Also unfortunate for the Warriors is the dismantling of my Mt Smart graveyard idea. The Roosters and Rabbitohs have both blown away the Warriors at Mt Smart, then the Sharks came to Auckland and rolled out an expert 'how to win' performance at the graveyard. All three games saw the Warriors get their souls snatched, twice in crushing fashion and once in battle of attrition.
The aura around Mt Smart has diminished and it ain't gonna be easy to re-claim that aura against a Storm team that is almost full-strength (depending on Dale Finucane). Hence expectations aren't super high for a Warriors win, unlike the nerves around which Warriors team will show up to play Brisbane Broncos in a game they kinda needed to win, this time I'm more calm, content and realistic.
There is plenty of reason for a dominant Warriors performance and I'm bloody hopeful they can get back to back wins, while also smacking the Storm up with some revenge. We have a settled Warriors team, the only dash of funk is in Gerard Beale holding on to his centre spot with the return of Ken Maumalo, pushing Peta Hiku to the bench.
What role Hiku plays will be of great interest. I'm picking that Hiku will be used sparingly, mainly as injury cover. There could be the enticing opportunity to let Hiku play with freedom, especially considering his footwork and impact running the footy, as well as his offloads. Hiku genuinely offers value as a footy player, as opposed to offering value at centre or wing or where ever. If you chuck Hiku on the field, he'll offload, he'll make metres.
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To beat Melbourne, the Warriors will have to execute their style of footy to near-perfection, with class. The Storm are 4th in offloads conceded, meaning only three teams concede more offloads than the Storm and our Warriors are 1st in offloads, putting the best offloading team against a team that struggles to stop offloads. Of course, Melbourne's defence is always sublime and they are the 2nd best team defensively; 2nd in fewest points conceded.
That means that for Melbourne, there is little correlation between conceding offloads and conceding points. Most NRL teams aren't the Warriors though and despite there being no connection between offloads and points for Melbourne, the way the Warriors move the footy around and play after an offload will still be of great importance to their success on Sunday.
Maintain a level the level of vigour that the Warriors displayed last week has been the issue in their inconsistency this season. It's important to note that prior to the Anzac Day game, the Warriors dominated St George Illawara Dragons and after Anzac Day, they dominated Wests Tigers in wins that were headlined by aggression and intensity, from which the attack took care of its self.
I'm sympathetic to the inconsistencies in the sense that it's bloody tough to sustain those levels throughout a season, especially the middle rounds. In specific games, the lows were low but over the course of the season thus far, the lows have been blips, losses have never stacked up, momentum has never moved into the loser category. I say all that because the Warriors best chance of victory comes with that ruthless vigour, the same intent they played with last week in Brisbane and I'm not certain we'll see that; we haven't seen back to back wins against good opposition like that this season.
This could present the 'find a way to win' circumstance however, which tripped up the Warriors vs Sharks and needs to be experienced again before the Finals. If the Warriors don't quite have the same zip or mongrel in their performance, they need to hang in there and at least stay in the contest long enough to put themselves in that 'find a way to win' position.
All season, we've seen the Warriors get smoked when they don't play with the same energy from their impressive wins. As we near Finals footy and getting the W becomes way more important, finding a way to win if the boys aren't on is a major detail that needs to be sussed out.
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Peace and love 27.