Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Sussing Out The Troops ... Again
As Aotearoa Warriors defeated Penrith Panthers, sealing their first NRL Finals appearance since 2011 when the made the Grand Final, more confusion about team selection and combinations appeared. Confusion, in a really good way because there is such a high level of competition for spots in the top-17 and depending on availabilities via injury/suspension, there could be some niggly selections for coach Stephen Kearney to make.
This doesn't include Mason Lino and Blake Green though. Lino was solid in another opportunity for the back up half, he won't be challenging Green or Shaun Johnson to steer the Warriors through the Finals though. The Warriors have decent depth in all positions, most evident in the competition for spots and also evident in the clarity around the depth options; if Green of Johnson's injured, everyone knows Lino steps up to start.
Having wrote about the battle for the two centre spots a few weeks ago, I'm still uncertain as to who will get the starting spots and whether the third wheel gets a bench spot. Peta Hiku returned to centre in the win over Penrith, doing a fine job and to be honest, it was the type of performance that we come to expect from Hiku. There have been defensive nightmares sure, but Hiku's ability to make metres, offload and set up David Fusitu'a can't be slept on.
Viliame Kikau and Waqa Blake weren't overly influential for Penrith, playing down the same edge as Hiku. That right edge is back how it started (Johnson, Harris, Hiku, Fusitu'a) and there is value in that offensively, as well as defensively given that Hiku was a missed tackle machine early in the season, but those misses didn't lead to points or losses.
With greater focus on isolating weaknesses, Finals opposition may put the right edge under more pressure. The way the Warriors defend is suited to helping Hiku with Fusitu'a jamming when possible and everyone else working hard from the inside to cover those holes, while also wrapping around behind Hiku.
Gerard Beale however, has done a nice job at centre and should be in the top-17. Beale is very similar to Hiku, just missing a bit of Hiku's razzle dazzle, which Beale makes up for in his defensive reads and tackle execution. Solomone Kata doesn't look like he's going any where either and that leads me to believe that we'll see Beale/Kata, with Hiku coming off the bench. This option suits Hiku's skill set and carrying him on the bench is better than Beale, or Kata there.
Carrying Hiku on the bench puts more pressure on the big boppers, especially with the possibility that we'll see Adam Blair, Simon Mannering and Harris start games. The alternative is still tricky, given that if Isaiah Papali'i starts on an edge and Blair starts in the middle, with Mannering on the bench; either Papali'i or Mannering will take up a bench spot.
We know Jazz Tevaga's role, we know exactly what he offers and how Kearney uses him. Tevaga plays around 55 minutes off the bench, coming on 25-30mins into the game and playing most, if not the rest of the game. If Hiku is on the bench, then there is two spots up for grabs and with James Gavet and Agnatius Paasi starting, this leaves Papali'i (likelier than Mannering), Bunty Afoa and Leivaha Pulu competing for those two spots.
Pulu is the most likely to drop off the bench. Since coming back from injury, Pulu hasn't been used much off the bench and his comeback game against Gold Coast Titans saw Pulu play 36mins mainly because the Warriors had to use their depth. Pulu then played 20mins vs Dragons, 10mins vs Knights, 11mins vs Bulldogs and 24mins vs Panthers.
I like what Pulu offers, it just doesn't seem as though he's fitting in to how Kearney is operating right now. Things change quickly though and if something happens to the more skillful forwards, Pulu is a mandatory selection. Right now, the Warriors need more grunt on the bench to balance out Tevaga, Papali'i and maybe Hiku, which favours Afoa's hard running style.
Through the first 12 rounds, Afoa played less than 40mins just three times, including 36 and 37min games. Since round 12, Afoa has played over 35mins in two of nine games and in the last four games, Afoa has played 26mins, 31mins, 24mins and 24mins. There is nothing to suggest that Afoa has done anything wrong and he was one of the Warriors best through the first half of the season, leading me to believe that Kearney is using Afoa wisely.
Afoa was awesome to start the season and took on a lot more responsibility than he ever has, or that any of us expected. Understandably, that may have fatigued Afoa and Kearney may be managing his minutes to balance out that high usage earlier in the season. It's important to note that Afoa got injured in the round 16 loss to Cronulla and Pulu has spent a decent chunk of the season injured. Neither has played big minutes since returning from injury, neither has been required to do so and Kearney has the luxury of leaning on the likes of Blair and Mannering to cover those minutes.
Oh and James Gavet. Since round 18, Gavet has played less than 40mins just twice in seven games. Gavet had 26mins vs Titans and then 19mins vs Dragons, since then he has played 43mins, 44mins and 45mins. Whether this trend continues, or if Gavet loses a few minutes to Afoa or Pulu will be an interesting nuance to the first Finals game.
What is clear, is that despite Kearney leaning on Tevita Satae, Sam Lisone, Joseph Vuna and Ligi Sao at various stages this season, they have fallen out of the rotation. The clarity sits in the fact that someone like Pulu has earned bench selection even though he's being used sparingly, along with Kearney selecting Hiku on the bench when Beale was fit.
Those other four big boppers all have value and are key to the success of the club, as we near the Finals though Kearney has trimmed the fat. Unless required through injury/suspension, Kearney is likely to stick with Gavet, Paasi, Blair, Mannering, Harris, Tevaga, Afoa, Papali'i and Pulu as his forwards. Depending on what happens with Hiku, either Papali'i or Pulu will be in danger of losing their bench spot, but they'll remain on the cusp of selection.
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Peace and love 27.