Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Not Sure What To Expect vs Cowboys
Aotearoa Warriors face North Queensland Cowboys tonight and with Jason Taumalolo highly likely to play, this is a rather intriguing match up for the Warriors. There was also new during the week about a Warriors partnership with Redcliffe Dolphins who compete in Queensland's Intrust Super Cup and I'll spin a yarn about that in our email newsletter that drops later today - sign up because it's cool.
There are some key aspects of the Cowboys play, especially around Taumalolo that the Warriors could target but coach Stephen Kearney is a wee bit weird. Peta Hiku appears to be a late inclusion at centre and whether it's Hiku or Gerard Beale lining up at left centre to defend Esan Marsters, they'll be playing an important defensive role. It's the forward pack where Kearney really gets confusing and having seen Kearney get far too tricky in moving players between edge and middle, before games and during games as well as shuffling that game-day 17; Kearney cuteness isn't new.
Coming up against Taumalolo and having operated with Tohu Harris in the middle for two games, I thought Harris would be the perfect bloke to limit Taumalolo's influence. Especially if Harris and Blair are both in the middle as they are both big enough, super mobile and are experienced in dealing with Taumalolo. With that in mind, Harris being named on an edge is the exact same recipe that has led to Harris playing through the middle come kick-off. This time though, Isaiah Papali'i has been cut and the chances of Kearney's cute team shifting decrease as it boils down to Harris or Blair playing on an edge.
Harris could still slide into the middle and Blair can play edge, yet it's far more likely for Papali'i to be playing edge than Blair. This doesn't make too much sense for my silly noggin' and after seeing Harris put up excessive stats through the middle, plus the Taumalolo factor, forgetting all of this and putting Harris back to an edge would be weird.
The Warriors haven't been overly fabulous in Lachlan Burr's absence and still, I completely forgot he existed. Burr walks straight back into the starting side and I'm not excited, however Burr may be able to fill that imaginary hole left by Harris being on an edge as his defensive numbers were rather nice in the first two games. Burr had 41 tackles @ 95.3 percent in round tahi, then - playing just 23mins due to injury - Burr had 14 tackles @ 100 percent in round rua.
Considering that Harris only shifted to the middle when Burr was absent, maybe this all makes far more sense than I think it does. There may be a bit of an injury crisis, but Burr would be wise to bounce back with a dominant performance through the middle as there is no shortage of middle options that excite me more, right now. Having Jack Murchie, Poasa Fa'aumausili and King Vuniyayawa on the bench could provide the oomph up the guts to allow others like Burr to focus more on defensive duties. Last week Fa'amausili and Vuniyayawa were low key decent off the bench...
Fa'amausili: 32mins, 6 runs for 64m @ 10.66m/run, 31pcm @ 5.16pcm/run, 1tb, 1 offload, 27 tackles @ 93.1 percent.
Vuniyayawa: 39mins, 11 runs for 116m @ 10.54m/run, 54pcm @ 4.90pcm/run, 27 tackles @ 87.1 percent.
That's two lads both averaging over 10m/run and well over 4 post-contact-metres per run last week in a losing performance. Pretty damn good, while Murchie was a bit quieter (5 runs for 30m) and Murchie's shown promising signs to have me pondering a powerful, mobile bench unit.
The South Auckland Rhino
Here are the three games Taumalolo has played this season and there is a clear correlation between his tackle count and his running metres, which then impacts the result...
Round tahi vs Broncos: Loss - 73mins, 4 tb, 69pcm, 32 tackles.
Round rua vs Bulldogs: Win - 73mins, 8tb, 115pcm, 19 tackles.
Round toru vs Titans: Win - 60mins, 7tb, 127pcm, 16 tackles.
Obviously a variety of different factors impact this as well, but it's a logical area for the Warriors to target. The tricky thing is whether the Warriors are good enough to force Taumalolo into 30+ tackles, or if the Warriors are more aligned with the Bulldogs and Titans who get in their own way, before targeting Taumalolo is even a possibility.
Dummy Half Running
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck's 1 scoot and Hayze Perham's 2 scoots vs Panthers was the ony dummy half run from the outside backs. Don't buzz about Wayde Egan or Karl Lawton running from dummy half so much, the Warriors need their lively outside backs to make use of the space behind the ruck. Against the Dragons, the Warriors outside backs had 9 dummy half runs.
Possession
Cowboys are 1st in the NRL for possession, enjoying 58 percent of the footy across four rounds. Warriors are 12 with 49 percent and if that's how this game unfolds, then there is no chance to force Taumalolo or any other Cowboy into lots of defensive work.
Offloads
The Warriors are 15th in errors - only the Knights have fewer errors than the Warriors! This however, comes at the expense of offloads and the Warriors are 16th in offloads, so don't expect offloads.
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Peace and love.