Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Mundane Warriors
Take a moment to embark on an excursion back through your Aotearoa Warriors memories, where you are likely to find a picket fence and within that little slice of real estate is the residence of Aotearoa Warriors vs Melbourne Storm games. Fun ol' place this is huh? Full of funky footy that shakes up the systematic approach of the Storm and there are enough Warriors wins, usually upsets to provide some joy.
Of ourse, there are the thumpings that come when mediocre Warriors teams came across a rampant Storm outfit. And yet throughout this slice of Warriors history, upset wins over the Storm were always possible via the style of footy played by either team. Tonight, the 2020 Warriors take on the Storm and I've got no idea what is going to happen based on taking that trip back through Warriors antics.
The coach situation could be a major factor and any optmism for this game stems from the bounce-back that tends to occur after a team loses their coach. Todd Payten's now the coach and there is every chance that Payten, full of head coach enery, has the Warriors firing on all cylinders ... specifically the cylinders that haven't had any fire in them for a while. Aiding with this possible outcome is that the Storm are 2-2 since the restart, coming off a loss to Penrith Panthers and the Storm have been a bit all over the place compared to their usual mellow level of consistency.
Unlike the Warriors who appeared to whip everyone into an irrational level of positivity thanks to their own 2-2 restart, the Storm's 2-2 restart record has seen them play four teams currently in the top-eight; loss vs Raiders, win vs Rabbitohs, win vs Knights, loss vs Panthers. The Warriors have their 2-2 restart record having defeated two bottom-eight teams (Cowboys and Dragons) and losing to their top-eight opponents (Panthers and Rabbitohs).
Two teams, same restart record and completely different situations.
A Storm team that feels under-par at the moment and the bounce-back factor with the Warriors coaching stuff, could be a recipe for a Warriors win. Working against that idea is the fact that the 2020 Warriors have shown little to no signs of leaning into the funky, off-the-cuff style of footy that has previously enabled the Warriors to get those upset wins over the Storm.
Offloads? Warriors are 16th across the entire NRL.
Correct, no team offloads the footy less than the Warriors.
Tackle busts? Warriors are 14th.
Linebreaks? Warriors are 15th.
Tries? Warriors are 14th.
While we all have those memories of the Warriors being a vibrant attacking team who at various stages, could be so funky that they were always a chance of jacking wins from the Storm, those do not apply in 2020. And perhaps, that's why Kearney is no longer the coach.
Especially considering that being among the three worst teams in those attacking stats coincided with the Warriors having the fewest errors in the NRL (16th); Warriors have very little in attack via an obviously stripped back game-plan and that's helped them make the fewest errors. That sounds great, right?
Well if you can defend - the Warriors are 4th in average missed tackles.
Hopefully that's helped you build a framework about the 2020 Warriors in your noggin' and I lay that all out to also suggest that the idea of a funky Warriors team shaking up the stingey Storm appears to be false at the moment. The Warriors have shown zero signs of having any of the tools to defeat the Storm - tools that they have previously had.
Maybe, Payten wants to change that and this encounter with the Storm could be Payten's party for funky Warriors footy. Otherwise, I see a mundane Warriors team coming up against a Storm team that genuinely offers far more attacking impetus than the Warriors.
There are plenty of changes to the Warriors team for tonight. These changes are via injury and suspension, although other than missing David Fusitu'a (who has only played 2.5 games this season) these changes all feel kinda good and Payten may pursue such options moving forward. Take Wayde Egan for example, who is suspended and after seeing Egan's work this season, I'm eager to see Egan not play.
Egan barely runs the footy and isn't overly dynamic - when he does run the footy nothing really happens. Egan has a semi-nice passing game, yet this Warriors team definitely doesn't need a dummy half who only passes and pushes the Warriors into their sluggish backline moves. This Warriors team needs a spark at dummy half and Karl Lawton is pretty damn sparky - less excited about Chanel Harris-Tavita at dummy half but let's see how he goes.
Same with Lachlan Burr. Egan and Burr have shown positive signs (Egan had a decent game vs Rabbitohs, Burr's averaged 10m/run a few times this season), it's more about the fit in this curren Warriors group as Burr lacks any energy, power, footwork ... funk! Both can still play roles for the Warriors moving forward and their styles may fit into a more confident, vibrant Warriors team. Right now, the Warriors need to generate that spark and whether it's Lawton starting or the cannon-ball Poasa Fa'amausili now starting, these are avenues to generating a spark or level of vibrant footy.
Missing Eliesa Katoa is a bummer, although Katoa had become a go-to weapon among a mundane outfit. This may force the Warriors to look elsewhere for the straight up oomph offered by Katoa.
A few things I'll be playing close attention to...
Where Roger Tuivasa-Sheck gets his touches.
Under coach Kearney, Tuivasa-Sheck was primarily used as a middle forward. That leads to amazing stats (20 runs, 200+ metres etc) but his a waste of Tuivasa-Sheck's ability and ideally, Tuivasa-Sheck is given freedom to find the space and pounce - in 2020 that space usually revolves around the ruck.
Is Blake Green officially washed?
Definitely looked washed this season under Kearney, hopefully not washed under Payten.
Tohu Harris middle vs edge?
The best thing about the Warriors' restart was Harris playing through the middle. Jack Murchie is named on an edge this week, while Isaiah Papali'i and Josh Curran can both play edge off the bench. I still reckon middle is best for Harris and the Warriors, the team-list suggests otherwise but remember that Kearney didn't name Harris in the middle.
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Peace and love.