DOAAWF: All The Warriors Moving Pieces
Aotearoa Warriors face a niggly proposition in trying to defeat Cronulla Sharks tomorrow evening, while the Sharks are clinging to their top-eight spot and are without two of their key players. Both Chad Townsend and Wade Graham were playing back in round 10 when the Sharks chucked up 46 points in smoking the Warriors and that's a key juncture to explore; the Warriors played the Roosters in round 11 and the seeds of change were already starting to sprout.
Since that Roosters loss, the Warriors are far more interesting and can not only hang with good teams - they can genuinely mess with good teams. That was evident vs Parramatta Eels where the Warriors lost, although not through their own mishaps and a fair amount conspired against the Warriors starting with not being able to use George Jennings and Daniel Alvaro who have contributed to a winning stretch for the Warriors. Such is life when dealing with loan players.
Eliesa Katoa was also missing and the Eels (who could only manage 2 points vs Panthers) held their ground as Mitchell Moses' hefty kicks kept the Warriors starting sets deep in their own territory. The real funk though, was in Jazz Tevaga's antics and none of what happened in that game was based around Eels forward Nathan Brown baiting Tevaga, or any Eels forward going hundies with the niggle; Tevaga brought all the smoke to Brown and the Eels forwards.
It was Tevaga who made Brown look like a possum in the headlight, making that battle personal. Although it didn't quite work out result-wise, it was a signal and it flowed on from the Knights game where I saw Tevaga stand over Kalyn Ponga and whisper cuteness in his ear. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is the captain, he's the leader of the Warriors and that's beautiful as a young South Aucklander, meanwhile the prickly combination of Papakura and Christchurch has Tevaga as the heart and soul of this Warriors group.
Throw back to the last Sharks vs Warriors game and Tevaga wasn't happy with a late hit in Blake Green...
There was a yarn recently about Warriors offloads and while I don't doubt that coach Todd Payten has opened up the attacking valve, to suggest that a spike in offloads is different simply isn't true.
2018 Offloads
2nd - 319 - 12.26 per game.
2019 Offloads
4th - 286 - 11.91 per game.
2020 Offloads
4th - 174 - 10.17 per game.
Under Stephen Kearney, the Warriors were in the top-five for offloads in two seasons and that didn't quite flow into the start of 2020 because ... the Warriors were rather horrible in those opening rounds. This season on a whole is the same as those under Kearney for offloads and then, it's more about Tevaga's impact rather than a change in strategy; maybe a change in strategy via change in personnel.
Tevaga returned in round 9 and since then, Tevaga has 19 offloads per Fox Sports and 20 offloads per NRL. Either way, Tevaga has already made his way to second behind Peta Hiku for offloads and while Tevaga provides an energy, or attitude, he also offers a career-best 135m per game, offloads and general footy funk as he bounces around the middle of the park.
The offloading is the same season to season and if there's a change, it's the presence of Tevaga.
As well as Hiku's season being split in half. Remember that Hiku's season has exploded largely due to the whanau-factor and that goes for many Warriors players not named Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (dude's a monster). Hiku has 24 offloads per Fox Sports, 23 offloads per NRL and again, either way, 19 of Hiku's offloads have come since round 9 - when Tevaga returned.
In the good stretch starting with that loss vs Roosters, Hiku churned out 15 offloads in seven games, along with 5 of his 7 try assists.
A lot has changed since the Warriors last played the Sharks and this current Warriors outfit offers a weird pondering experience as there is value in chilling, enjoying the present moment and then there are prodding thoughts about the future. David Fusitu'a, Patrick Herbert, Ken Maumalo, Blake Green, Agnatius Paasi and Jack Hetherington played that round 10 game and won't play this game.
Also of note is that Karl Lawton started that game as an edge forward, while Wayde Egan and Adam Blair started in their standard roles. Since then, Lawton has started the last seven games at hooker and Egan's come off the bench, while Tevaga replaced Blair in the middle and yet Blair's showcased value in a bench role; not a demotion just a change in role.
Blair has played all 17 games this season and registered a missed tackle in each of the first 10 games, 2+ missed tackles in six of those games.
Since round 11, Blair has a missed tackle in just two of seven games with 3 missed tackles total.
Despite the change in role clearly impact Blair's involvement stats, he's still averaging 87m per game and that's the second best season of his career. The best thing coach Payten's done is fiddle with the fit of players, finding the right role for blokes in a season where everyone's trying to suss out style of footy and tempo.
The absence of Fusitu'a and Maumalo is still very weird considering that Adam Pompey and Jennings are doing fine. It took Pompey a while, but he found his groove and has 170m, 195m and 156m in his last three games which is par with Fusitu'a's general production and Jennings has played six games total this season, with five games of 150+ metres and four games of 170+ metres.
Jennings is doing similar stuff to Maumalo, yet he's twice as nimble and Pompey's doing a service-able Fusitu'a impersonation. The Warriors as a team are still sitting 6th in total Post Contact Metres, another low key indicator that they have found a different way to absorb the loss of their power-wingers.
All of which is kinda awkward because there are many lovely things about this Warriors group in this situation and yet it'll all be stripped down come season's end. Except for ... the spine!
Golly gosh, the joys of a Warriors spine playing multiple games together and having fun. The departure of Blake Green has perhaps had the most impact move of the season, allowing for Chanel Harris-Tavita to partner Kodi Nikorima and similar to Tevaga, Harris-Tavita simply has more attacking tools than Green. Most importantly though; Tuivasa-Sheck, Harris-Tavita, Nikoria and Lawton have started four games together.
Double down; those four are likely to keep those spine roles next season under coach Nathan Brown.
Again though, it's about roles and since coming off the bench, Egan has settled into his work around the ruck. Egan has brought a bit of craft to the Lawton/Egan combo as he will pop out of dummy half, straighten up to engage a marker and then make a pass.
In the six games Egan has come off the bench recently, Tuivasa-Sheck has 4 tries and 5 linebreaks. I don't think that's a coincidence as Tuivasa-Sheck is loitering around the ruck area far more than he used to.
Couple quick notes...
Isaiah Papali'i and Lachlan Burr are off-contract and playing for something. Burr feels highly unlikely to stay with the Warriors, while Papali'i is far more interesting as he has a lot of mana with the Warriors countered by the fact that he's an odd player in the 2020 NRL; bit small, bit slow.
Maybe Papali'i starting at prop vs Sharks may offer insight into his future?
Or, Tohu Harris will start on an edge and then move to the middle 20-odd minutes in as he does every week and Papali'i will probably go to an edge.
Three games starting at centre for Hayze Perham and he looks good.
With regards to offloads, Perham's jacked up 5 offloads in these three games. Perham didn't miss a tackle vs Eels and has 3 missed tackles in his last three games, plus there is a minor surprise factor as Perham doesn't look overly big when taking tough carries but he's big enough and has nice footwork so he does his job. Remember that Perham was a skillful back in 1st 15 rugby for Rotorua Boys High School, so that slick spiral pass to set up Jennings vs Knights is the norm.
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Peace and love.