New Zealand Warriors start their 2025 NRL season vs Canberra Raiders in a distant land and in the two seasons of the two Andys era, results in the first game have set the tone for how that season unfolds. NZW started the 2023 season with a 20-12 win vs Newcastle Knights in Wellington which flowed into a deep finals campaign and last year they lost 12-16 to Cronulla Sharks at Mt Smart in a tame outing that became the status quo as they missed finals footy.

Now they start this season against Raiders. After three consecutive wins over Raiders during the two Andys era, they had a loss in Canberra late in the season which was part of the icky status quo.

NZ Warriors vs Canberra Raiders in last two seasons

36-14 win in Canberra
21-20 win at Mt Smart
18-10 win in Christchurch
18-20 loss in Canberra

In the loss vs Raiders, NZW scored four tries and Raiders scored three. NZW converted just one of those tries so that could have been a win with a few goals kicked.

Coach Andrew Webster offered a few funky selections in the pre-season and has stayed with Taine Tuaupiki on the wing, as well as rolling with Chanel Harris-Tavita in the halves alongside Luke Metcalf. Adam Pompey's return to play centre is the only other major selection note, while Jackson Ford has kept his spot as a bench forward who is most likely to play through the middle but can also cover edge forward.

This pre-season notebook covers lots of key details including Tuaupiki's mahi in those two games and the kicking splits for the halves that played. While many have negative views about the players who NZW lost from last season, this team is far more vibrant and the selection of Tuaupiki on the wing along with Metcalf at halfback and Erin Clark in the middle, makes NZW much faster than they were last year.

Tuaupiki and Metcalf weren't always in the top-17 last season and Clark was with Gold Coast Titans. NZW have added three players who are fast for their positions but there is also more zip and variety in running styles when scanning across the whole team. Tuaupiki may not zoom past wingers for long range explosions but he is fast in close spaces, bouncing between players, which along with the footwork of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, gives NZW tricky players to tackle.

Harris-Tavita is a creative play-maker who can use footwork and his relative size to trouble defenders. Metcalf is one of the fastest halfbacks in the NRL this season and will use that speed every so often to keep defenders honest. Clark is fast and aggressive, which flows into Demitric Vaimauga who is more agile than many middle forwards and also has a fabulous skillset for a middle forward thanks to his time as a midfielder in 1st 15 rugby.

Leka Halasima will once again show how difficult he is to tackle with his fend, footwork, shuffle and speed shining in brief NRL opportunities. There are big bodies throughout the team who will try to run over their opposition and whether it's the Adam Pompey floating step, James Fisher-Harris' expertise in getting between defenders or Kurt Capewell's gumby running style; NZW have a blend of runners that will trouble fresh and tired defenders.

That running variety is also evident in Wayde Egan who glides out of dummy half in slow motion and as well as offering crisp passing in both directions, his no-looker passing ability causes chaos around the ruck. NZW need to have players pushing up in support of Egan and a bit more speed in the squad should ensure that Egan always has options, plus any minor break elsewhere can become a try scoring opportunity solely thanks to support runners.

Egan is the only hooker in the top-17 with Sam Healey earning selection as 18th lad. That's a salute to the strong pre-season performances from Healey as laid out in the pre-season notebook, but it doesn't ease the concern of all rugby league fans who seem to have more anxiety about Egan's health than himself or coach Webster.

Dylan Walker starts the season on the bench and he is most likely to cover dummy half if required. Clark came up through the NZW junior system as a half and then debuted as a hooker, but he was probably recruited as a middle forward. This is boosted by coach Webster's love for small forwards and signing Clark has seen him selected ahead of Walker in that role.

Egan can play 80 minutes and he is far more durable than many believe. Having played 18+ games in six of his seven NRL seasons, Egan has played four consecutive seasons of 20+ games. NZW haven't played much finals footy during that period so Egan has missed three to five games each season, while often churning out 80 minutes and being capable of going beyond that mark when required.

Last season Egan played 90mins vs Sea Eagles, 89mins vs Bulldogs and 83mins vs Dolphins. He played 80mins in 10 of his 20 games and if he wasn't playing the full game, he was was injured early in a couple games (normal for an NRL player) or played at least 50mins. Egan must be one of the fittest players at Mt Smart and his ability to play 80mins should not be underestimated.

Even if he isn't playing 80mins, NZW only need someone to do a job for 15-20mins in most cases. Walker or whoever is lined up to cover dummy half would have done training for that role and NZW probably signed Healey because of his attacking ability around the ruck compared to Freddy Lussick who is more of a workhorse. Any absence of Egan hinders NZW in attack but they have players in the team who can plug the hole mid-game as well as a back up dummy half in Healey who can spark the attack like a spliff of Aotearoa vitamins.

The Metcalf/Harris-Tavita halves combination provides two kickers on both sides of the ruck which is a sneaky crucial element in balancing the defensive numbers and slowing kick pressure just a wee bit. Harris-Tavita has averaged 100+ kicking metres per game in all five of his NRL seasons and despite Metcalf averaging between 38-48 kicking metres per game in his four seasons, he showcased his kicking ability with 336 kicking metres vs Sharks.

Having meditated on the statistical profile of the 2024 NZW team over the summer, the most important element of their footy style is scoring points when in the opposition 20m zone. This will be a crucial wrinkle to watch out for against Raiders and another follow up to that is their territory or where most of the game is played - ideally down the Raiders end.

NZW were excellent in getting down into the attacking zone last year with elite run metres, completion rate and tackles in the opposition 20m. There may be a dip in run metres and maybe even completion rate if there are minor issues with new combinations, but more speed and two good long kickers combined with aggressive defence after a long kick can help NZW win the territory battle.

Winning the territory battle and all that goes into that bucket, should be enough for this NZW team to grab a round tahi win vs Raiders.

The NZW Under 17 and 19 teams have been playing footy already. Aside from some impressive highlights and glimpses of the talent NZW have in their pipeline, no major conclusions should be taken from junior footy. The most important zone is NSW Cup where the best NZW youngsters have contributed to winning footy against fringe NRL players and while results look stinky elsewhere, this NSW Cup pocket is where our focus should be.

U17: 6th (5-3) | 6th (2-1)
U19: 12th (3-5-1) | 15th (0-4)
U21: 11th (8-15-1)
NSW Cup: 3rd (14-9-1) | 4th (14-9-1)

NZW also signed Morgan Harper. In these estuaries we do not care about the top-30 because anyone outside the top-30 can play NRL. Harper was mentioned as a centre by coach Webster and while many NRL fans seem to despise the Ngaruawahia junior, the two Andys obviously spoke positively about signing Harper.

Led by Andrew McFadden, NZW have done an excellent job at scouting and recruitment across all levels of the organisation. The two Andys believe in Harper to offer depth and based on their recent signings, they deserve some faith. Most notably, Harper has been signed as a depth option and he isn’t in the mix for a starting NRL role until he earns that through NSW Cup mahi.

Harper is sixth on the centre depth chart below and has a young phenom in Sio Kali right behind him who is hungry to push for NRL footy this year. Harper offers experience to the NSW Cup team and along with some desperation to prolong his NRL career, perhaps a wairua boost from being in Aotearoa, could bring the best out of Harper.

This should quieten the noise around NZW needing more outside backs, which was somewhat overstated any way. There are injuries to Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Rocco Berry, but NZW has depth players at the wing/centre positions who have already played NRL as well as hungry youngsters who want an opportunity.

Wing: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Taine Tuaupiki, Edward Kosi, Motu Pasikala
Centre: Ali Leiataua, Adam Pompey, Rocco Berry, Moala Graham-Taufa, Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, Morgan Harper, Sio Kali

NZW also have versatility in abundance. Tuaupiki is a fullback now adding wing depth, while Leiataua, Pompey and Graham-Taufa can do a job on the wing if required. Halasima has already covered centre in his NRL debut, Capewell has plugged that hole before and the Nicoll-Klokstad/Tuivasa-Sheck duo can play at high level in any outside back position without much fuss. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava is the most versatile of all NZW players and having already started a pre-season game at centre with scope to cover all positions coming off the bench, he will work his way into an NRL debut at some point this season.

Also...

NZW had a bigger crowd in Hamilton for their pre-season game vs Storm than the Chiefs vs Crusaders game in Super Rugby Pacific. Don't stress about Auckland FC because they are part of the Mt Smart whanau, zone in on how rugby league, football and cricket are selling out crowds while Super Rugby Pacific is not.

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