An Optimistic Stock Take Of The 2025 New Zealand Warriors NRL Season So Far
New Zealand Warriors take a break this weekend which may shake off some of the stink from the two losses between two byes in the past month. Despite not being at their best in the losses to Panthers and Broncos, the foundations established during the two Andys era saw NZW show their mana in both losses as they didn't they crumble under the pressure of two rampant teams or pesky injuries.
NZW lost two games in a row for the first time this season. They are in a far better position compared to last season and at the same in 2023 they were eighth with a 9-7 record, which isn't quite as good as their 10-5 record right now. Not only is this the best NZW have been at round 18 in the two Andys era, the NSW Cup team has improved through two and a half seasons to be the most dominant NSW Cup team right now.
The reserve grade outfit have a hefty advantage at the top of the NSW Cup ladder with a 15-1 record and they are in their third season in a row as a top-four NSW Cup team. This year is slightly different as younger players usually fill up the reserve grade squad and this was on show last round with nine Under 21 lads in the team who defeated Sea Eagles: Sio Kali, Luke Hanson, Jett Cleary, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Kayliss Fatialofa, Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, Jason Salalilo, Harry Durbin, Makaia Tafua.
So far, this is the best year for NZW since Andrew Webster and Andrew McFadden led the revival of Aotearoa mana. Add in their second Under 17 Harold Matthews Cup championship in a row and the return of Warriors wahine in NRLW as additional reinforcements for the overall vibration of Mt Smart being fantastic.
It may not feel like that though for those zoned in on the NRL outfit. NZW were a few notches below Broncos/Panthers in physicality, ruck control and clinical attacking movements. The win vs Sharks was a highlight of the season as everything clicked into a groove but Sharks are trending in the opposite direction of Panthers and Broncos, so it's tricky to compare these performances.
The stone in the shoe for most NZW folks is the injury to Luke Metcalf. For many, Metcalf was the best NZW player and one of, if not the reason why NZW are a top-four team heading into round 18. That's reflected in his Dally M ranking and but this feels more like the fetish for halfbacks in NRL coverage, with Metcalf's moments leading the analysis rather than a comprehensive exploration of all the elements in winning footy for NZW.
An injury to Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is just as stink for NZW, however the focus on individuals overloooks the system that NZW have in place under the two Andys. There is evidence that Mitchell Barnett's injury has had a notable impact on NZW as they have one win and three losses without Barnett. Even with that in mind, it still feels possible for NZW to finish the season as a top-four team without Metcalf or Barnett and Nicoll-Klokstad missing a few games.
Where does that optimism come from?
Metcalf was in the best season of his career. Chanel Harris-Tavita has also been in career-best form with the most tries (five), try assists (13) and kick metres per game (221.4) of his six NRL seasons. Harris-Tavita's 64m/game is on par with his previous seasons (66m in 2021 and 58m in 2022) when he was playing nearly every position on the field.
Metcalf and Harris-Tavita both have at least five tries, nine try assists, 65+ metres per game, 88% tackling and 200+ kicking metres per game. Very few NRL teams have this kind of balance in their halves mahi and Harris-Tavita has been just as impressive as Metcalf so far in 2025.
There are cases for others having their best NRL seasons as well. Wayde Egan's previous best for metres per game was 51m in 2023 and that was his only season over 50/game prior to his 69m/game this season. Egan has gone from 4.1 dummy half runs per game in 2023 to 5.1 last year and 5.9 this season.
Nicoll-Klokstad has two seasons averaging over 190m/game with 202m last year and 197m this year. He has averaged 180+ metres in all three seasons of the two Andys era after not hitting that mark in his four years with Raiders. While Nicoll-Klokstad isn't at his play-making best, his intensity with and without the footy feels like the best of his career with his defensive efforts peeping through in how his tackling efficiency has gone from 80.3% last year to 87.2% this year.
Erin Clark averaged 38.8 minutes per game last year and he has jumped up to 57mins/game in returning to Mt Smart. This leads to the most tackle breaks, offloads and metres per game of his career. 10 wins is also a career-high for Clark.
Similar cases can be made for most NZW players. Adam Pompey is reliable as ever. Demitric Vaimauga, Leka Halasima and Jacob Laban are shining with regular roles and they have absorbed the loss of other forwards nicely. Somehow Kurt Capewell and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck are still operating at a high level; Capewell's one of the most valuable NZW players and with far less touches, Tuivasa-Sheck's mahi is almost aligned with his crazy antics at fullback.
Most importantly, under the two Andys NZW have established depth in all positions and increased the versatility available to them. This is the main reason for hope moving forward without some top-17 players as the two Andys have laid out strong options to fill those spots and many decisions now look wise given recent events.
The premier NSW Cup spine of Taine Tuaupiki, Te Maire Martin, Tanah Boyd and Samuel Healey could all add to the NRL team. Probably not together though as it’s unlikely that Martin and Healey share bench spots. The funkiest selection move will be who fills the Metcalf role, with Martin and Boyd more than capable of getting the job done.
The case for Martin is that he has done this job before for NZW and he was ranked ahead of Boyd in the depth chart having commanded a bench role through his exceptional mahi in NSW Cup. The case for Boyd is that if he's playing in the halves then Martin can keep the bench spot and while Healey is a more vibrant attacking dummy half, Martin covers more positions and has consistently shown impeccable team-first mana.
Boyd is the more interesting bloke in this mix because he is younger and has played more NRL footy than Metcalf, plus he is the best genuine halfback at Mt Smart. The 24-year-old has won all 13 games in NSW Cup this year at halfback with 16 try assists, 68m/game and 87.8% tackling. None of which can be compared to Metcalf's NRL mahi but Boyd does have a notably better goal-kicking rate of 80.4% in reserve grade compared to Metcalf's 66.6%.
There was noise earlier this season about Cowboys chasing Boyd for more of a utility role and while NZW are always willing to allow players to depart for better opportunities, the two Andys are too wise to release a half with 69 NRL games experience. Especially as Boyd clearly wants to be with the organisation having left Australia to settle as a leader for the NSW Cup team.
Metcalf is injury prone so having multiple depth options is slick squad building for NZW. This flows throughout the system as well with Jye Linnane signed for next year after a few major injuries, something that can be absorbed in a system that has three other young Aussie halves on the rise in Luke Hanson, Jett Clear and Jack Thompson.
Boyd has earned an NRL opportunity with NZW. We will wait and see if that is as a starting half or in a utility role, something that also applies to Tuaupiki and Healey who are following the theme of NZW players in offering career-best mahi this year.
Tuaupiki has shown that he can play on the wing in the NRL and so far this year he has done that role better than Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Edward Kosi. His best position is fullback though and despite Tuaupiki lacking a NSW Cup profile, his last outing at fullback in NSW Cup looks fantastic alongside his only start in the NRL as a fullback this year vs Broncos...
NRL vs Broncos: 23 runs - 172m @ 7.4m/run, 1 linebreak, 1 try assist, 5 tackle breaks, 3 tackles @ 100%
NSW Cup vs Sea Eagles: 27 runs - 257m @ 9.5m/run, 2 linebreak assists, 1 try assist, 13 tackle breaks, 4 offloads, 2 kicks, 3 tackles @ 75%
Tuaupiki plays fullback different to Nicoll-Klokstad and his zip running the footy, as well as the passing skills that Nicoll-Klokstad and Tuivasa-Sheck lack, could see him enhance NZW attack. Coach Webster has already shown that he can adapt the playing style to the skills of the players available so the possible inclusions of Tuaupiki and Boyd are more likely to freshen things up, rather than complicating what was previously working.
Whether it's Capewell and Pompey covering two positions, a bunch of forwards covering middle and edge duties or the Taharoa homies plugging any hole in the team; versatility in the NZW squad creates even more depth than zoning in on players in one positional silo.
Healey is also in career-best NSW Cup form...
2023: 12 games, 5 tries, 4 try assists, 9 offloads, 58m/game, 94.9% tackling
2024: 26 games, 8 tries, 4 try assists, 22 offloads, 56m/game, 94.2% tackling
2025: 11 games, 2 tries, 3 try assists, 19 offloads, 92m/game, 96.3% tackling
Healey doesn't spend all of his NSW Cup minutes at hooker though. NZW have small forwards throughout their system under the two Andys and sometimes Healey plays small forward alongside Freddy Lussick with Christchurch's Makaia Tafua getting game time at dummy half. When Tafua and Jacob Auloa have played U21s this year, one of them is small forward and the other is hooker.
This could spice up the NRL bench for NZW. While it's unlikely that Martin/Boyd and Healey are on the bench together, Healey can cover the small forward role as he did on NRL debut as well as hooker. Healey is a big body dummy half who averages almost two offloads per game and his running style is similar to Tuaupiki as they bounce around looking for gaps rather than looking for contact.
One zone that stands out so far this season as being the most underwhelming is the young centre duo of Ali Leiataua and Rocco Berry. Leiataua is out injured and like Berry, they have struggled when dipping in and out of the NRL team which may revolve around them not playing NSW Cup around their sporadic NRL appearances.
Leiataua had two tackle breaks in his last five appearances with nine missed tackles in that period. Berry has not played 80mins in consecutive games this season and the bloke who used to tackle like he had super glue on his mits now looks like he has dipped his hands in butter when making low tackles. This is evident in his tackling efficiency dropping below 90% (85.2%) for the first season of his career and the visions of Berry steadily slipping off legs tackles whenever he is playing.
That's why the versatility of Capewell and Pompey has been so important. Leiataua and Berry haven't kicked on as we all assumed but NZW have two blokes who are more reliable in those positions, while Pompey also covers wing and Capewell's best spot is edge forward. NZW are well stocked in this position moving forward even with Moala Graham-Taufa moving to Rabbitohs: Sio Kali (wing), Caelys Putoko (fullback), Brandon Norris (wing), Patrick Moimoi, Nganatatafu Vake all have NRL potential as centres who are building their versatility.
As important as Egan and many other NRL players are for NZW, they aren't irreplaceable. The depth players are all in fabulous form and offer different skills to the top-17 lads, plus there is a coach who has played a key role in building this depth and has a fluid coaching style that can bring out the best of all NZW squad members.
The most important style elements of coach Webster's NZW teams are possession, completion rates, patience and hearty defensive efforts. None of that is unique to coach Webster though because that smells like a typical recipe for good rugby league. NZW lost to Broncos and Panthers with notable drops in their possession and completion rates, along with a dip in their high standards of collision/ruck control rather than glaring holes in tactics or their plans.
Lots of learning will be done over the next few weeks about coach Webster and the NZW system. There are multiple options available to plug holes in the top-17 and changes could force other teams to adapt to tweaks in how NZW play their footy. The fundamentals won't change though and for all the individual moments that generate headlines, NZW are a top-four team right now because of the intangibles (attitude, effort, focus, intensity) that all NZW fans have wanted to see consistently for 20 years.
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Peace and love.