Mid season check up with the Mystery Doctor

Broncos - Once again the Broncos have been a bit hit or miss. Plenty of young talent who are becoming solid first graders and a strong base of quality Origin players means there is always hope for the Brisbane outfit. Unfortunately, this is the age of the super star. Unless you have one it is very difficult to make an impression and the Broncos this season appear to be lacking major strike weapons. I am predicting them to drop points throughout the Origin period which will ruin their season as they will quickly fall behind the large group of teams currently on 10 or 12 points. 

Consistent performer  - Justin Hodges

Projected finish - 11th

Bulldogs - After a terrible start, the Dogs found some strong form with the return of key forwards. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they made the grand final last year on the back of a stellar season by Ben Barba. The quality teams this year have taken the standard of footy up a level and I think this will leave the Bulldogs floating in the 7 or 8 spot which will make it very tough to go very far in the finals. However, they can easily turn in to a dominant force very quickly so don't be surprised to see them deep in to the finals.

Consistent performer - Trent Hodkinson

Projected finish - 5th

Raiders - Two words. Terry Campese. Campese has made a huge impact on this Raiders team. They have long had the grunt upfront, but throw in a high quality play maker plus exciting players on the edges and you have a dangerous team. Currently in 8th with 16 points, the Raiders have a nice little cushion on the chasing pack and I wouldn't be surprised to see them climb as high as 5th. Come finals time they will crumble under the pressure of playing against the best.

Consistent performer - Reece Robinson

Projected finish - 10th

Cowboys - 2013 has been a rough year for the Cowboys. Packed with talent, they haven't been able to string quality wins together let alone grind out a win. Jonathan Thurston's constant injury cloud could have had an impact but this could easily turn around if Thurston finds form in Origin. Ray Thompson has come back in to dummy half which could provide some stability and allow the Cowboys to build each week. Their form so far has put them in the chasing pack so they can easily get back in contention but any losses will spell the end of Neil Henry's tenure.

Consistent performer - Kane Linnett

Projected finish - 8th

Titans - The Titans have looked the goods so far this season on the back of a solid forward pack and two very good young halves. This is their problem however, on the weekend there was a reliance on Albert Kelly to provide an attacking option and not much structure to get Jamal Idris and Dave Taylor involved when the game was on the line. Looking at the chasing pack, there are teams who have multiple weapons which when combined with momentum, will over take the Titans. Titans fans can look forward to seasons to come should Kelly sort his contract out.

Consistent performer - Albert Kelly

Projected finish - 9th

Sea Eagles - It has been a tough wee period for the Brookvale faithful recently. Despite playing some very tough footy, they have been able to win games they probably should have. Expect this to change, rather quickly. Brett Stewart is expected to return soon and while Peta Hiku has done a fantastic job, Geoff Toovey will be looking forward to having the firm back in action. New boys Justin Horo and Brenton Lawrence hve added a new dimension to Manly and I can't see them slipping down the ladder.

Consistent performer - Kieran Foran

Projected finish - 3rd

Storm - Once again the Storm are up the top. This year however they are facing serious competition and it will be interesting to see how they fare. Looking back in history, the Storm have generally let another team win following their successful campaigns so I'd expect to see a new champion this year. They have maintained their victorious formula while riding the form of players such as Will Chambers, Tohu Harris and Jesse Bromwich. I don't see them being as dynamic as many other teams this season but could be a banana skin for many teams with their big game experience and footy nous possibly troubling other contenders. 

Consistent performer - Gareth Widdop

Projected finish - 2nd

Knights - Very inconsistent this season. Have looked fabulous one week and terrible the next. Jarrod Mullen has led the team strongly following injuries to Kurt Gidley and Danny Buderus. They have unearthed talents like Robbie Rochow and Korbin Sims but there aren't enough genuine match winners to give them much hope. Wayne Bennett hasn't done enough to warrant his selection over Rick Stone, but I think most of the blame should fall upon the players who haven't been up to the challenge of playing against quality teams week in, week out. 

Consistent performer - Jarrod Mullen

Projected finish - 12th

Eels - The Parramatta Eels need Ricky Stuart. They need him to revamp the club and its culture. This process has already begun and the Eels have a wealth of young talent at their disposal. In Tim Mannah and Jarryd Hayne, they have characters capable of leading the Eels in to a new era. The Eels will provide tough opposition each week but don't expect them to get many wins. They do have the future to look eagerly upon and with Stuart at the helm expect them to steadily improve. 

Consistent performer - Ryan Morgan

Projected finish - 16th

Panthers - Like the Eels the Panthers are in a rebuilding stage. Unlike the Eels, the Panthers have shown their capabilities, upsetting a few teams and displaying high levels of energy and enthusiasm. With further changes to the squad over the summer, the Panthers will be almost ready to make an assault on the NRL hierarchy. They are an exciting team to watch given they get some go forward and could make things hard for many teams come crunch time. 

Consistent performer - Nigel Plum

Projected finish - 13th

Sharks - With the drugged up elephant still in the corner of the room, the Sharks have relished the opportunity to bond together and perform through adversity. Todd Carney has limited to club duty and the Sharks will be able to maintain a play making core that will get them through to the playoffs. Not many teams possess a forward pack like Cronulla, who have many strings to their bow. Big enough to roll through the middle, skillful enough to off load like the 02 Warriors and mobile enough to trouble teams on the edges the Sharks are primed and ready to strike. 

Consistent performer - Wade Graham

Projected finish - 6th

Rabbitohs -  The Bunnies have emerged as genuine contenders for the title this season. The arrival of the Burgess clan has sent shock waves through the NRL as they joined an already Hulk like group of monsters. What they have lacked in the past, are now strengths of their game. An attitude change on defence has turned the Rabbitohs in to a team that can win games on defence alone and John Sutton is relishing the opportunity to play alongside Adam Reynolds. They are my favourites because they have shown that they can destroy a team in many different ways. Whether Greg Inglis has a show stopping performance, Adam Reynolds plays a blinder landing kicks on a dime for his outside men or they just plain and simple beat you up through the middle, the Rabbitohs have options. Having options is a good place to be.

Consistent performer - George Burgess

Projected finish - 1st

Dragons - The Dragons, pre Josh Dugan were pretty bad. They offered nothing on attack but could grind out a few wins thanks to strong defence. Lacking creativity, they succeeded in their pursuit of Josh Dugan, who has been able to breathe a bit of life in to this lacklustre St George team. They have the forwards to trouble a few teams but just seem unable to string together quality attacking plays, let alone team performances. Like the other crappy teams, they have next year to look forward to with some big signings who should be able to provide the spark that is missing.

Consistent performer - Tyson Frizell

Projected finish - 15th

Roosters - Like the Bunnies, the Roosters have shown their hand. They are capable of striking from anywhere on the pitch while still being able to limit their opposition with tough defence. The biggest factor to their strong showing this season (besides their defensive attitude) is the way Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney have been able to quickly learn to play alongside one another. Maloney alone, has the rare ability to put his team mates in to a hole while also being able to hit a hole and create a line break. Sonny Bill Williams doesn't need much said about him. He has shown how great a sportsman he is, while Michael Jennings has reminded everyone of his quality. The only issue for me is that they might be a bit light up front compared to teams like the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs. Minor issue really though.

Consistent performer - Sonny Bill Williams

Projected finish - 4th

Warriors - Struggled throughout the early stages of the season as they tried to get their head around Mathew Elliot's game plan. Despite loosing many games, they were getting better until being smashed by the Panthers. Since then they have not looked back. With the table so congested around the 8 spot, the Warriors could easily make a strong run in to the playoffs. I think they'll loose a couple of games as they continue to develop a team identity but they have the personnel to trouble many teams.

Consistent performer - Ngani Laumape

Projected finish - 7th

Tigers - Ravaged by injuries, the Tigers have been an interesting story this season. They have been able to introduce a bunch of youngsters in to first grade which may not have been planned, but will do these guys a world of good. They have upset a few teams and can continue to do so as Benji Marshall, Curtis Sironen, Braith Anasta and Robbie Farah get more game time together. Like Tigers teams of recent years they are capable of leaking plenty of points, so while they might find some form and win a couple of games they will still find themselves out of the finals.

Consistent performer - Curtis Sironen

Projected finish - 14th

The Wildcard - Dragons Debrief

The Ephemeral Nature of Triumph As Evidenced By the St George Illawara Dragons

What makes a champion? How can one sustain success? Why do the Dragons suck so much? These are just a few of the fundamental questions of life that will be partially and unsatisfactorily explored in the proceeding paragraphs.

On Sunday I watched my St George Dragons lose for the sixth time this NRL season. After failing to strike the final blow in yet another winnable game, this time against the Gold Coast Titans, I have been forced to accept now that the Dragons will probably miss the playoffs again this year. Even at this early stage, it’s just too hard to foresee the boys in the Red V being able to halt this run of failure. There are worse teams in the league, though (like the Warriors – HA!), so why does this in any way matter? Well the Dragons were champions just three years ago. This is the story of how the they came crashing down to earth.

At the beginning of the 2011 NRL season, the St George Dragons were sitting atop the rugby league world, looking proudly down on all others. NRL champions, two time defending minor premiers, and world club challenge winners. They were well established under coaching-Buddha Wayne Bennett and looking forward to another prosperous season. Melbourne was in tatters after the salary cap scandal of the previous year. Manly and Brisbane were coming off of poor seasons. Starting the season 10 and 1, the Dragons were in an equivalent position to Tony Montana in the film Scarface when he watched that blimp fly by with the scrolling message: The world is yours. You know, the moment just before it all fell apart. St George won just 4 of their final 13 games, and lost both playoff games on top of that. Wayne Bennett left the club that offseason to join the Knights and took Queensland star Darius Boyd, plus others, with him. Club legends Mark Gasnier and Ben Hornby retired, along with grand final man of the match Dean Young. In less than three years, over half of the grand final starting 13 has left the team.

It took a long time for the Dragons to become contenders. 2010 was the first title for the storied club since the St George Dragons won in 1979 (minus the Illawara, you notice – this was before the merger with the Steelers). It all changed when Wayne Bennett assumed the coaching position vacated by Nathan Brown in 2008. Just as his departure meant an exodus of star talent, his arrival saw the likes of Jeremy Smith, Darius Boyd (who seems to go wherever Bennett goes), Neville Costigan and Michael Weyman turn up in Wollongong. Bennett brought these guys to a team with a number of promising younger players, such as Ben Creagh, Trent Merrin and Jamie Soward, and created a winning atmosphere, a positive culture, and established a gameplan that suited this team. Somewhat ironically, that game plan is what is holding this team down now.

The Dragons rely on incredible discipline and structure. They play the percentages, off of Soward’s defensive kicking game, and thrive on opposition errors while minimising their own. Of course, without the superior skill sets of some of those championship players, this is hard to maintain. It means that the current Dragons are vulnerable to errors that tend to compound. If they don’t dominate territory and score early, they tend to lose. Sometimes they lose even when they do dominate territory (see Manly week 8) because they lack the creativity to break through a great defensive unit. They struggle immensely away from home. There are games where they simply never have a chance and there are games where they had the chance but weren’t clinical enough to take it. The pundits keep calling for them to loosen up and throw the ball around more, but it is easier said than done when asking a team to abandon their identity. 

All of this has me wondering what make a championship team. That identity is definitely crucial. Coaching, playing talent and team unity are part of it too, naturally, but so many teams, especially in a league as tight as the NRL, can boast these things. Timing and circumstance are essential as well. When the Dragons won, Melbourne were clearly the best team, but had been disqualified for that season for busting the salary cap. In fact Melbourne is very much a bogey team for the Saints, who’ve lost 12 of the past 15 to them. They probably could not have won with Melbourne in contention.

There are teams like Melbourne and Manly, who dominate for years. The Brisbane Broncos in the 1990s were the same. Other teams only have a small window for success. Everything just falls into place - the stars align, as an astrologist may say. Most often these teams fall short and nobody thinks twice as they fade back into mediocrity. I’m reminded of another favourite team of mine, the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. They famously came from behind to beat LeBron’s Miami team in the 2011 finals, but in the quest for long term success, they immediately dumped a number of older more experienced players, who were crucial to their title run, and went after younger, more glamorous free agents (Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Deron Williams). They failed. Now they suck. There is still a light on the horizon for the Dragons going forward, with an aggressive and promising recruiting campaign in progress. The team looks very promisingly for next season, but it is very much the start of a new era.

The price of a sporting dynasty is immeasurable, and rarely achievable. Even singular triumph is sporadic and fleeting. Saints fans have learnt this the hard way, though not before experiencing the very finest that sports can offer. It is a punishing and demanding climb to reach the pinnacle of any sport. But it’s a short, sharp fall back down.

Mystery Doctor - Here we go again

No one enjoys getting demolished on the sports field. There is no worse feeling than knowing that the other team are more talented, smart and more athletic than you and your mates. 

This was not the case at Centrebet Stadium on Saturday night however. The Warriors were thumped thanks to two variables which aresimilar and can impact each other. These were two variables that each player had full control over.The attitude and effort of the Warriors was pitiful. They were not there to play NRL footy. They weren't ready for a physical battle and they darn sure weren't ready for a mental battle where they

would push themselves to the limited risking their bodies for the sake of each other and New Zealand.

As they are now known as the New Zealand Warriors, New Zealand is who they are accountable to.

Most of the blame seems to be falling on the few blokes at the top of the pyramid. Wayne Scurrah,

Dean Bell etc. and their recruitment strategies. I don't know enough about the going ons inside the front office to make a sound judgement but many of the 'shortcomings' have happened before around the world with little or no impact. What I do know is that Mathew Elliot said today that some of the problems at the club were there before he became coach. Hmmmmmmm. The Warriors do seem to lack direction and leadership up top but many of the criticism falling on them is based around player recruitment. This includes letting those who ravaged them on Saturday night and the great Mr Cleary, depart. Let's be honest, many sports clubs have let many coaches and players go who have beat them up the next time they meet on the field. We seem to be making that a bigger issue than it is. I mean they let Issac John go, knowing that Shaun Johnson was waiting in the wings. Not such a bad call. John then didn't fit in with his English club's plans so he was released to Penrith. You can hardly blame anyone for that? Just the way the cookie crumbles.

The players they recruited? Well who wouldn't be happy with two Melbourne Storm players, a Panther who

was given a first grade contract at 17 and another youngster with first grade experience on the

GOld Coast. They seem like pretty good buys to me. SO I don't think we can take that route of blame.

I wont comment of Mathew Elliot. Lets see what he's made of. He has hit rock bottom so the proof will

be in the pudding.

That leaves the players. If only they were all like Captain Simon Mannering. His effort is unquestioned.

His attitude, exceptional. But none of the other players seem to be taking much notice.This group of players need to realise what they are a part of. Especially the younger group of New Zealand players. Following the World Cup win in 2008, rugby league has experienced great growth and recognition within New Zealand. The most visible team is the Warriors. These players need to take responsibility for the future of rugby league in New Zealand with the gauntlet being laid by Sir Owen Glenn and Eric Watson. These two have outlined a vision. The players need to accept the role within this vision respond with the correct attitude and effort.

The Warriors are lucky though. This performance has come at the best time it could. Any later in the

season than now and it would have been too late. But they have a chance to get themselves out of this

hole. I would start with giving Harry Siejka a go. Siejka is a very good young halfback and will

need to be given a chance at some stage during the season after making the move from Penrith. What

better time than now? Let Shaun Johnson find some confidence in NSW Cup, rediscover his magical touch

and let him tough it out. He hasn't faced a major setback so far and everything seems to have been handed

to him on a silver platter. Give him some competition. Next I would want to see Suaia Matagi who played against the Bulldogs in Wellington given another shot. He is a unit and is aggressive. Which is what the Warriors need. Remember Richard Villasanti? Yeah well they need that. This would also send a rocket up the frontline prop's backsides. I imagine Konrad Hurrell will be brought back sometime soon following a few weeks with the Vulcans. He is a player that other teams will fear and another player who will make the Warriors a physical threat.

Warriors fans

Those who 'like' the Warriors love to bag them when they are down. These are not fans.

We have many fake league fans in New Zealand who love the Warriors when they are doing well, then

laugh when they are shit. Stand by them. Learn to ride the rollercoaster. It's a fun ride.

Oh and the Bulldogs are the most over rated team in the comp.

NRL Round 11

Tigers vs Cowboys

Matchup - Robert Lui vs Curtis Sironen. Both will be over shadowed by their star halfbacks, but it will be interesting to see how Lui goes in his comeback against the NRL's biggest halfback.

Key player - Braith Anasta. Comes back after injury and adds much needed experience and leadership to a herd of lost sheep.

Keep an eye on - Adam Blair at prop. He has missed 24 tackles this year. Shit.

Verdict - Cowboys <12

Bulldogs vs Broncos

Matchup - The Props. Both teams have physical props who love to intimidate. Both also possess a bit of skill. Sounds tasty.

Key player - Matt Gillett. Will have some big bodies down his lane but has the mobility and skill to trouble his opposition especially Frank Pritchard.

Keep an eye on - Jack Granville. Very quick out of dummy half for the Broncos and will give them a spark.

Verdict - Broncos <12. Will be tough but the Broncos need to get some good wins in Sydney

Dragons vs Panthers

Matchup - Michael Weymen vs Tim Grant. Two big boppers/

Key player - Josh Dugan. This is likely to be the same each week as his impact was immediately visible.

Keep an eye on - Matt Robinson. Another former Junior Warrior who is quietly going about his business.

Verdict - Dragons <12

Roosters vs Storm

Matchup - Too many across the park.

Key players - Michael Jennings and Shaun Kenny-Dowall. Two dynamic centres who provide a threat on each edge. Up against two ok centres but they could be the difference.

Keep an eye on - With Jared Waera-Hargreaves suspended, Luke O'Donnell moves to prop. While very tough, he isn't the biggest bloke going around.

Verdict - Roostes <12

Sea Eagles vs Raiders

Matchup - Kieran Foran vs Terry Campese. Foran's physcial play could unsettle Campese who will steering the Raiders ship.

Key player - Anthony Milford. He has had a big impact in recent weeks and provides a great spark for the Raiders on attack. They will need all the spark they can get to break down the Manly defence.

Keep an eye on - David Shillington could ride the wave of the Raiders in to a QLD jersey.

Verdict - Manly <12

Eels vs Titans

Matchup - Reni Maitua vs Greg Bird. Big, tough and skillful.

Key player - Matt Srama. Coming back from a pretty yuk old injury, he needs to get the Titans going forward with some smart dummy half running.

Keep an eye on - Tim Mannah. Another who is playing for an Origin jersey and needs to lead the Eels up front.

Verdict - Titans <12

Warriors vs Knights

Matchup - Manu Vatuvei vs Akuila Uate. Need I say more?

Key player - Feleti Mateo. For the Warriors to get their season back on track, they need to find a balance between playing tough and a bit of razzle dazzle. This starts with Mateo.

Keep an eye on - Dane Nielsen and the impact his return has.

Verdict - Warriors <12

Sharks vs Rabbitohs

Matchup - Paul Gallen vs Sam Burgess. Both set the tone for their teams with their physical play and both possess an array of skills.

Key player - Andrew Fifita. For the Sharkies to compete up front, Fifita will have to roll his sleeves up and match the Rabbioths big boys.

Keep an eye on - Dylan Walker, had a solid debut last week but wasn't tested too much.

Verdict - Sharks <12