So all of a sudden, Steven Adams seems to have worked his way not only onto the Oklahoma City Thunder NBA roster but into a contributing role. A few weeks ago, we all assumed he’d be looking forward to a developmental season spent mostly in the D-League. A number of things have gone his way since then:

Hasheem Thabeet got himself banned for the first game of the season for headbutting an opponent in pre-season. Thabeet is a former 2nd overall pick (2009 – Grizzlies), and at 7 foot 3, is the tallest player in the NBA.
OKC cut rival centre Daniel Orton (now with Philly), meaning that beyond Thabeet and Adams, only Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison were competing for C roles (and Collison is 90% a Power Forward anyway)
Speaking of Kendrick Perkins, he really is struggling to justify his place in this team. After a train wreck of a postseason, Perkins has completed a Walter White-esque transformation from young prodigy to a violently despised villain living on borrowed time. I didn’t realise till recently just how much everyone thinks Perkins sucks. And it’s fair enough too. Perkins can’t shoot or defend, he doesn’t get nearly enough rebounds, is frustratingly slow and can barely play 25 mins. He is a clear example of a player that needs a change of scenery. #TradingBlock.
The biggest reason for Adams’ rise, though, has been his play. In limited minutes, he’s been a revelation. Averaging 8 boards and just under 8 points a game during preseason (and in very limited time), he may just be too good at what he does best to demote.

Let’s look more closely at his preseason form. Averaged over 36 minutes, these are his numbers:

Steven Adams per 36 this preseason: 12.1 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 62.1% FG.
— Thunder Stats & Info (@ThunderStats) October 24, 2013

If he replicates those digits in the regular season, assuming he plays, say, 25 min/game, then Adams is in the running for Rookie of the Year honours. Not even kidding. (Not a likely scenario, sadly)

Being preseason, he wasn’t playing against the starters for the most part. But, I mean, for such a ‘raw talent’, what more could you expect? We know that his defence is scratchy, and I’ll talk about that later, but it seems that the Thunder are willing to put up with his downside for the huge offensive upside he brings.

REBOUNDING – As a big guy, he’s expected to pull in rebounds, and that’s just what he’s been doing. Adams is clever about where he sets up, and he’s deceptively strong. Plus we know how athletic he is – much moreso than most NBA centres. He’s young and inexperienced, so the vets are gonna try outsmart him, and probably will, but that’s a phase that every player goes through early on in adjusting to this league. He should be able to make an immediate contribution in this area.

SHOOTING – Adams is a great shooter for a big guy. And a very versatile scorer. He needs work on refining this area – his free-throw shooting especially – but if his preseason is anything to go by, he’ll get there. He’s shown a much better touch around the basket than most thought he had. At full NBA level he may struggle. If he keeps it simple, as he’s been doing, there’s no reason to think he can’t be an effective bench scorer.

OFF THE BALL – This is an area where he’s definitely excelled, especially when it comes to setting screens. He showed this string to his bow early in Summer Leagues, and has continued to do so after this step up. If he’s getting the minutes, then Russell Westbrook will see the benefits.

DEFENCE – Yeah, dodgy at times. But he brings such energy and athleticism to a position that this team has lacked it from for a while now. Great at shot blocking, he and Serge Ibaka could be a frightening pair for opposition forwards. Call it ‘youthful exuberance’, but Stevie does get sucked out of place a bit. He has the size and strength to immediately compete, it’s just a matter of learning and moving forward. There were moments in preseason where he showed great defensive versatility and potential, followed by moments where he was simply schooled by a clever veteran like Carlos Boozer. Adams seems very level headed, resilient and borderline scholarly to the game. He’ll get there.

How does he fit in to the roster? He’ll be getting good minutes in the opener without Thabeet around. Perkins will probably average 25 mpg over the season. That leaves 23 more minutes for the bench at C. Collision may get some, since he’s a great defender and leader. Adams can reasonably expect at least 10 in game 1. Kevin Durant has said publically that he thinks Adams is good enough to be an NBA starter right now, though coach Scott Brooks is playing his cards close to his chest, refusing to talk anyone up or make any guarantees at this stage.

Going forward, hopefully Steven forces his way permanently into the rotation. There is the chance he ends up in the D-League after a few weeks, and that wouldn’t be a disaster, but judging by current hype, maybe an 8-15 min/game season is looking most likely. Perkins is injury prone, too.

And make no mistake, while Kendrick Perkins is not the best fit as the OKC big-fella, he’s still the best they’ve got. You don’t just find an NBA quality centre on the streets outside the stadium. I do think they look to trade him at some point. He’s under contract for 2 more years, at salaries hovering around $9m, so not the most desirable trade, but there will be teams out there very happy to pick him up. The issue is replacing him, since Adams, let’s be fair, is not ready to start. Neither is Thabeet. Omer Asik of Houston could be offloaded, but his defence isn’t great.

OKC has the best two-man combo in the NBA with Durant/Westbrook, but there isn’t much scoring aside from them. There’s a reason that they average, like, 70 points per game between them. This team hasn’t recovered from the Harden Trade. A lot is resting on the shoulders of young Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson to pick up the role of bench scorer/impact guys. Potentially, Steven Adams could help them out on both counts.

The problem with giving him too much court time is the flaws not just in his game but in their team that that exposes. As an entire unit, they don’t defend that well. Serge Ibaka is a beast, but defensively he’s a little overrated because of his league leading block averages. KD/RW are beyond reproach, but what else are they working with? Perkins is slow and lazy. His most memorable defensive highlight was getting posterized by Blake Griffin that time (below). There’s a lot of youth on this roster, playing with a lot of expectation.

Steven Adams outperformed every competitor for his place in the Thunder squad during preseason, yet that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s ready for this level. Game-time in the season opener is pretty much guaranteed. Beyond that, well, we’ll have to wait and see.

Oklahoma City play the Utah Jazz on Thursday afternoon, 2pm (NZT) in their season opener.