Last Week: 5-9

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)

I think I’ve figured out why I went so bad last week. As I’ve pointed out before, I like to base my picks on Uncle Biff’s old, dog-eared copy of Gray’s Sports Almanac, which I found in lying in a mouldy box in the attic. Well, a quick dusting of the jacket cover reveals that the book only covers years 1950-2000. Also, it’s incredibly small for a book that supposedly lists every result of every sport for half a decade. So there you go. That’s why I sucked last week. That and the fact that these Packers TIED with the GODDAMN VIKINGS! Unacceptable.

Matt Flynn gets the starting gig for GB in Detroit (on Thanksgiving, no less). The Lions are proving impossible to figure out. They win the unwinnables and lose the unthinkables. Like to Tampa Bay. That game was at the least going to overtime when Megatron hauled one in inside the TB 10 with time slipping away. Only for the best WR in recent memory to fumble and lose the game. The Packers are basically playing for their season; Detroit are playing for the lead in the division. On paper the Lions should destroy, and I have to pick them against a Rodgers-less Green Bay. But it’s gonna be much closer than it should be.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 6

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

Look, I don’t exactly have an unbiased view in this argument, but here is why the Dallas Cowboys aren’t nearly as bad as people think they are:

Tony Romo – 64.2% comp 2931 yds 23/7 TD/INT. That’s definitely playoff quality.
Dez Bryant – Enough said.
DeMarco Murray is back fit, and when he rushes the ball 18 times or more, the Cowboys have never lost.
Sean Lee will be back soon, DeMarcus Ware is back already.
Their abysmal defence improved to stop the Giants on fourth down once, and keep them to field goals on 1st & Goal twice. They can’t stop the run, but they held Eli in check.

This week Oakland comes to town to cut the turkey. I know they never look convincing enough but Dallas should get the W against this pack of mutts.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)

For our final Thanksgiving matchup, and to get into the spirit of the season, here are some things that I am thankful for:

NFL League Pass being free in NZ
Being able to watch Calvin Johnson every week
The NY Giants starting 0-6
The Dallas Mavericks’ 2011 season
The entire run of Breaking Bad
That some geniuses saw fit to invent refrigerators, paper, penicillin, anaesthesia and Southern Comfort (the last two overlap a little)
The internet
The novels of Cormac McCarthy
The Rolling Stones’ 1972 album Exile on Main Street
Scarlett Johansson
Leaked photos of Scarlett Johansson

And, umm… now I’ve gone and lost my train of thought…

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Cleveland Browns (4-7)

A crucial game here for Cleveland. A slip up here and they may just have played themselves out of contention for a top 5 draft pick. Yes, the Browns just cannot afford to win this game. But it will be a challenge coming up against the universally awful Jaguars. Luckily the Browns have a tanking weapon like never before conceived of. A tool so devoid of talent and sense that he ought to be studied by militaries. A (not exactly secret) weapon that they have christened: Brandon Weeden.

Wildcard’s Pick: I never thought I’d say this, but I think Jacksonville will win. By 4

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

OK Indy. Time to turn things around. You lot had a great start, but now you’re crumbling. The loss to Arizona was pathetic. But it’s not too late, things can change quickly in this league. This is about the time that some team goes on a big winning streak which caps off in a long playoff run. Think the Giants in 2012, the Packers the year before. All you need is some offensive balance (aka, a running game of some note), and things’ll be back lookin’ fine and dandy like sour candy. Okilly-dokilly.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 10

Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1)

No Cutler. But on the other hand: Josh McCown. J-Mac is… wait for it… leading… wait some more for it… the NFL… still waiting… in QBR. Not even kidding you. Although now is about the time that Adrian Peterson starts running into hyperspace, and the Bears aren’t much on D anymore. I’m picking a tie. No I’m not. But it will be close. On a sidenote, which do you think would win in a fight between an actual Viking and an actual Bear? I guess it depends on the breed of bear. I’d take Yogi over Leif Eriksson by 3/2 odds.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 3

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6)

Somewhere far away, as the sun sets gently over the city, skyscrapers casting ever-growing shadows, people rushing home, crossing streets, hailing cabs, yelling blind obscenities at their fellow man, as the stock markets close for the day and bars start to open, down on the corner of 12th Street and Main, a blue Honda sits idling at the traffic lights. At the wheel is an overweight gentleman, his temper and his hairline both receding. Pizza crumbs on his jacket. He wears a green New York Jets cap. This man gives a damn about the result of the Dophins-Jets game. I, however, do not.

Wildcard’s Pick: Miami by 7

Arizona Cardinals (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)

Ooooh. A couple of surprisingly dangerous teams. Philly needs to keep racking up the wins, because Dallas is all but guaranteed the division tie-breaker. Will they do so here? Nick Foles STILL has not thrown an interception this season and traditionally the Eagles are very strong off the bye too, though that was with Andy Reid. LeSean McCoy has been the single best running back in the NFL in 2013, and with these two weapons, a dynamic receiving corps, plus Mike Vick fit and waiting his turn on the bench, this is a team to fear on offence. Foles will come up against bigger challenges that’ll send his stats plummeting back to the mean, but I don’t know that Arizona qualifies. Carson Palmer will know that his Cardinals need to keep the ball away from the Eagles, which means the run game must take imperative. The Cards have won 4 straight (though the first three were against Atlanta, Houston and Jacksonville). Both these two are in the mix for a playoff spot. Arizona can take a huge step towards a wildcard spot with a win, and a Philly loss puts them almost out of contention (for a wildcard spot especially).

This season has been far too open and unpredictable for playoff spots to fall into place already.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) at Carolina Panthers (8-3)

	Tm	Age	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Cam Newton	CAR	24	11	8-3-0	208	337	61.7	2353	17	9	7.0	11.3	213.9	88.3	55.92	30	8.2	3	3
Mike Glennon	TAM	24	8	3-5-0	168	269	62.5	1782	13	4	6.6	10.6	222.8	91.6	49.57	21	7.2	2	2

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/28/2013.

Digest these numbers for a while. The Panthers have an elite defence and a great running game, but here is their big problem. They don’t throw the ball well. In terms of passing, rookie Mike Glennon is arguably superior. Which is not a huge criticism of Cam, because Glennon is playing better than a lot of guys, but you won’t win a Superbowl if you can’t make big plays through the air. Not in this day and age. Tampa Bay has figured it out now. They’re much better than their record suggests. But Carolina is rolling to the playoffs and ought to edge this one. But just remember what I said come the postseason.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 4

New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9)

Are Houston the worst team in the NFL now? Oh how the semi-mighty have fallen. Atlanta and Houston were both in the running for the Superbowl last season. Neither made it – neither really deserved to. They were pretenders to the likes of San Francisco and Baltimore. But to fall so far in such a short amount of time? Wow. Injuries have played their part, but then these Patriots have had injuries across the board too. They ain’t doing so bad after topping Denver in OT. Just shows how far a great quarterback can take you. Houston still has the makings of a dangerous team though. If they draft a top QB, then this will become a perfect example of the Indianapolis Tank.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)

Speaking of how bad the Falcons have got. They’re probably losing to the Bills this week, who are not actually that bad – they’re just missing a decent QB themselves. We’ll see how EJ Manuel evolves when he puts a spell of good health together. Atlanta, with a very good QB already, could be frightening with a #1 pick, should the cards fall that way.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 4

St Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

Not at all sure what to think about the Rams. Did they just wait until the last possible moment to get good? Well, they won’t win this one, and they probably won’t beat New Orleans or Seattle later on either. Too little too late, I guess. I’ll take a struggling Colin Kaepernick over Kellen Clemens every day of the week.

Wildcard’s Pick: 49ers by 10

Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)

Without Tamba Hali or Justin Houston the Chiefs previously unflawed defence all of a sudden looked frail and creaky. Hali reckons he’ll be back to face Denver, which will be crucial. All the pressure you can put in Peyton’s face is important. I’m pretty sure there’s a direct correlation between the amount of times he gets hit and his completion percentage. Or maybe that’s just a universal thing, and by quoting it I sound a lot more knowledgeable than I really am. The answer is blowin’ in the wind…

Denver should be back with a vengeance after the cockup against New England. There are few more resilient men than a Manning. The Broncs were too good for the Chiefs in Colorado. I don’t believe there’ll be much change in Kansas City. We’re going to… Kansas City! Kansas City here we come…

Wildcard’s Pick: Well it may take a quarter, it may take all game. But Peyton’s gonna throw, three touchdowns just the same. Broncos by 7

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6)

Maybe it’ll be the Chargers that go on that big late season run? They definitely looked decent last week in piling it onto the Chiefs. They’ve got the weapons on offence. The defence is scratchy though. With games to come against Denver & KC it’s likely a bridge too far for the Bolts. In fact it could just as easily be the Bengals, who can run away with their division given their remaining schedule which has them playing just one team (The Colts) with a current record over .500. Not sure if the Bengals can keep up with a resurgent Phil Rivers. Especially without Geno Atkins or Leon Hall on D.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 7

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Professional Football Team (3-8)

Oh boy this is taking a while. No more bye weeks means more previews to write. Soldier on, son! Few woulda picked this game being so meaningless at the start of the season. But heywhaddayaknow? With the Giants win streak over, they’ll probably shrivel back into the dark recesses of hell where this team lives in the offseason (not a fan myself), while The Washington PFT is busy contemplating which QB to use. You have to wonder how much the missed preseason has cost RGIII. Speaking of changes in Washington… that name? Yeah? Nah?

Wildcard’s Pick: Washington PFT by 3 (Hey, they’re bound to win one sooner or later…)

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1)

The victor in this mouth-watering clash of contenders will probably end up with home field advantage, which, if Seattle manage it, will make them damn near unbeatable. What with their 13 game unbeaten home streak, which goes back two seasons. Russell Wilson has never lost in front of his home crowd. I’m all in on the Saints, but I think this game will end up being more of a blueprint for a potential playoff meeting. Seahawks take it here. But the Saints will do ‘em in the NFC Champs. That’s right, you heard it here first. Written in stone, with The Wildcard’s Guarantee*. Tweet it, Facebook it, write home and tell your parents. It’s been forecast.

*The Wildcard’s Guarantee carries no formal assurance or pledge. It is merely an exaggerated whim and subject to change with the breeze.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 7

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Sometimes, when he’s feeling sad, he likes to curl up in bed and watch Ryan Gosling films. Like Drive, Beyond the Pines or Only God Forgives. Then he drowns a few whiskeys, grabs his pickaxe and plays a little Murder in the Dark.